Geopolitical impact of Brexit

[RandBlade]

We're not dealing with a member state, we're dealing with a previous member state. Which is not much different than a non-member state. Everything you get will be something you have to give something back for. And if we don't like the price you're offering you won't get it. As things stand, after Brexit you have no rights, no privileges, no nothing in the EU, EEA or the customs union. What you will maybe have is an agreement with the EU about trade.

That's what negotiations are for. All that needs negotiating is what we want to give and take, the regulations etc that are typically stumbling blocks are quite easy as we start from the same position.

Oh and the Indians demand more open access for their citizens in return for a trade agreement.

Yeah which are being granted in a sensible manner and negotiations are continuing.

And the "negotiations with India will be more plausible"? With May having insulted the Indian PM when he asked about loosening the visa restrictions? Is this some kind of euphemism for "elephant in a china shop"?

Khen: May has insulted the Indian PM.
Times of India: UK offers liberal visa scheme for India businessmen
Indian PM Modi: "It is an honour that you chose India for your first bilateral visit outside Europe" Times of India, 9:25am IST

You spin harder than my tumble dryer.

[Khendraja'aro]

You seem to have kind of missed the part where she demanded*that he takes back all those Indians whose visas were expired. Without being able to tell how many of those supposed Indians-With-Expired-Visas there actually were.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-...oPSnZZaHM.html

And, please,*such statements of*government leaders are*a dime a dozen and effectively meaningless.

[RandBlade]

Not missed it. I fail to see how that is either insulting or something I should care about.

[Hazir]

Well of course you wouldn't understand that, being a white Brit thinking he's got the right to travel everywhere in the world because he's a white Brit.

An Indian though will understand that bringing up the problems of deporting illegal Indians and getting specific about what the British problems with it are, means that the UK puts a condition before more relaxed visa rules that can only be reached if India changes its way of doing things between the central government and the states. Hence a near impossible condition for the Indians. Good luck with your free trade deal with India, guvner.

[RandBlade]

So a condition of government's reaching a deal is that government's change behaviour? No shit Sherlock.

[Hazir]

On average a visa agreement doesn't include demands of the other party changing its constitutional arrangements.

[RandBlade]

Just when they're made by the EU is that normal?

On average they are dealt with at a national level. If the national government wants to make deals regarding visas the national government should be capable of dealing with reasonable visa Issues, like what happens to those with expired visas.

If the national government isn't capable of negotiating visas maybe they shouldn't be demanding them.

[Khendraja'aro]

Maybe. But*you don't shoot someone down in*public when you're trying to reach a trade deal. That's done behind closed doors where you can say such things more openly.

It's a perfect example of how not to do diplomacy.

[Hazir]

Just when they're made by the EU is that normal national government should be capable of dealing with reasonable visa Issues, like what happens to those with expired visas.

If the national government isn't capable of negotiating visas maybe they shouldn't be demanding them.

You realise that you're not offering membership of the UK to India don't you? Or do you actually don't know that the British Empire no longer is wanted by the world.

[RandBlade]

Maybe. But*you don't shoot someone down in*public when you're trying to reach a trade deal. That's done behind closed doors where you can say such things more openly.

It's a perfect example of how not to do diplomacy.

He wasn't shot down. It was said that visas have been liberalised already, will be liberalised further now (with concrete changes) and with further work could be liberalised even more in the future with agreement and compromise from India. Entirely appropriate and how diplomacy works.

Now if they want even deeper liberalisation then the Indian PM can work on his side in fixing the issues regarding overstayers with the promise of rewards if that goes through. Without the promise it won't be realistic to see the Indian PM get through the changes required.

[Hazir]

Seems like just a free trade deal isn't going to cut it for the employer of all those Brexitanians in Sunderland

[RandBlade]

Source? Nothing on BBC.

[RandBlade]

Sunderland Echo also doesn't have any article matching this claim. In fact quite the opposite it quotes Ghosn of Nissan saying that the decision to quit the Single Market and go for a trade deal is "no surprise" and "doesn't change" investment plans. Unless he's done a 180 since then that's the opposite of what you just claimed without a source.

Http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/b...lant-1-8344104

[Khendraja'aro]

Meanwhile, your retirees in Spain will be positively thrilled to have to return to Britain again. Will be fun for your NHS.

[RandBlade]

Again spinning unsubstantiated bullshit, forced repatriations are about as believable as your ludicrous claim of visas for tourists.

When you want to be a grown up we could have mature conversations.

[Khendraja'aro]

This is a completely natural result from leaving the EU -*you have*about a hundred thousand retirees living in Spain who are*only there because they can get the same kind of health care as in the UK for free. I mean, you have a shitty health care system coupled with probably the world's worst weather.*I myself want to flee from it and I'm not even*living on your backwater island!

When you leave the EU, this kind of deal will vanish and they'd have to pay quite a bit more to get health care. Most of them won't be able to afford that and thus will be forced to return to the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ain-healthcare

I wonder how many of those retirees were allowed to vote...

[RandBlade]

Just like if I visit Canada or go elsewhere in the world I pay for my own healthcare. Yawn, like I give a shit if that's made even globally.

There's nothing special with Spain's healthcare. My aunt and uncle retired to Spain but my uncle has serious heart problems which he blames on his factory work history so they kept their home in the UK too which they come back to whenever he needs treatments. He last year had bypass surgery, which thankfully went well he did not want to have it in Spain and had it here. They travel to Spain for the weather and the UK for healthcare.

[Khendraja'aro]

You are obviously completely incapable of understanding the problem these people face: They don't have a lot of money.*

A point the article did kind of make.

Plus, travelling back and forth for stuff like checkups or urgent conditions, that certainly a working proposition...

... but I see you're still desperately auditioning for the role of Comical Ali aka Baghdad Bob.

[RandBlade]

The article is fearmongering and grasping at straws. They have enough money to retire in a foreign nation. They can either continue that if agreed, fund it themselves, or return home, their choice. Why should I pay for their choices?

Their generation voted overwhelmingly for Brexit so they can adapt.

[Khendraja'aro]

I can assure you, those pensioners most certainly did NOT vote for the Brexit. Because they either voted Remain or weren't allowed to vote because they weren't in your country at the time of the referendum due to the shitty stunt your government pulled in that regard.

Secondly,

Wilson, who also called for a unilateral move, said it was needed “urgently” for retired people in Spain who were already suffering a reduced pension because of the decline in the value of the pound following the referendum.

[...]

Many moved to Spain in the first place because it was cheaper to live there, because it was cheaper to buy a property,” Wilson told the committee.

But, sure, it's sooooo expensive to live in Spain or France...

[RandBlade]

Please provide actual evidence they voted for Remain.

Secondly there was no stunt. People living abroad and registered to vote were able to vote so long as they've been abroad for less than 15 years as has been the case in every other election and is standard election law. If someone's been abroad over 15 years they're welcome to apply for citizenship in the nation they've adopted and vote in their elections.

[Khendraja'aro]

http://www.wort.lu/en/politics/uk-s-...ea9dff8fa76d84

As to other evidence: You might want to ask your government to provide that statistic. And, strangely enough, they said that they wanted to repeal the arbitrary 15 year limit. Just not in time for the referendum.

The stunt:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7103066.html

[RandBlade]

http://www.wort.lu/en/politics/uk-s-...ea9dff8fa76d84

Not evidence. Opinion polls were flawed enough but surveys are utterly meaningless. A survey of one business's users is not a poll let alone tally of overseas votes.

As to other evidence: You might want to ask your government to provide that statistic. And, strangely enough, they said that they wanted to repeal the arbitrary 15 year limit. Just not in time for the referendum.

It's not arbitary it's longstanding law. Your claims of some weird conspiracy by the government to generate a Leave vote collide with the reality that the government was pro-Remain. https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...for-the-uk.pdf

The stunt:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7103066.html

Not a stunt.

1: The government backed Remain not Leave.
2: The government is not responsible for issuing ballots (Councils are)
3: Neither the government nor the Councils deliver them (the Royal Mail and overseas Mail companies do).
4: 100 alleged people not getting votes, some of whom according to your own source would vote Leave, would not overturn a 1.3 million victory.

[Hazir]

Again spinning unsubstantiated bullshit, forced repatriations are about as believable as your ludicrous claim of visas for tourists.

When you want to be a grown up we could have mature conversations.

They won't be able to stay in the EU anyway as they'd have to buy private insurance which is horrendously expensive if you try to enter at an advanced age.

The visas for tourist is still totally possible. So far there is no regulation for your status at the border on Brexit-day. And that means that as a Brexitanian you're just another foreigner who needs a visa. Now pray that your government manages to get you a better deal. By being a lot nicer than it is today to start with. I think sacking Bozo the Clown would be a good start.

What's absolutely delicious is that if you get a visa waiver deal, it will be subject to the rule that it can be revoked if we decide there's reason to do so. For example if too many of your sort comes here, trying to steal our jobs. Which puts the Great White Brit on the level of Ukrainians and Turks, if the latter manage to ever get that visa deal.

[Hazir]

You are obviously completely incapable of understanding the problem these people face: They don't have a lot of money.*

A point the article did kind of make.

Plus, travelling back and forth for stuff like checkups or urgent conditions, that certainly a working proposition...

... but I see you're still desperately auditioning for the role of Comical Ali aka Baghdad Bob.

Any emergency would rip the heart out of their budgets. Try having a sprained ankle without coverage

But none of that is really important, because the great White Brit doesn't travel to Europe so it's no sweat of his back. Just like in the good old times.

[RandBlade]

They won't be able to stay in the EU anyway as they'd have to buy private insurance which is horrendously expensive if you try to enter at an advanced age.

The visas for tourist is still totally possible. So far there is no regulation for your status at the border on Brexit-day. And that means that as a Brexitanian you're just another foreigner who needs a visa. Now pray that your government manages to get you a better deal. By being a lot nicer than it is today to start with. I think sacking Bozo the Clown would be a good start.

What's absolutely delicious is that if you get a visa waiver deal, it will be subject to the rule that it can be revoked if we decide there's reason to do so. For example if too many of your sort comes here, trying to steal our jobs. Which puts the Great White Brit on the level of Ukrainians and Turks, if the latter manage to ever get that visa deal.

Boris is doing a fantastic job standing up for Britain. The fact he passes you off is just a nice bonus.

When is it going to sink in to you that we have no need to be "nice".

[Hazir]

Boris is doing a fantastic job standing up for Britain. The fact he passes you off is just a nice bonus.

When is it going to sink in to you that we have no need to be "nice".

We'll see about that come april.

Enjoy the last 2 years of visa-free travel, and try not to piss of Juncker, as he's got to suggest its continuation to the Council.

[RandBlade]

The fact you hold any esteem to that drunk while calling Boris a clown shows your one-sided blindness.

[Hazir]

The fact you hold any esteem to that drunk while calling Boris a clown shows your one-sided blindness.

I am just telling you that 'that drunk' is the one who calls the shot.He, not Bozo the clown will decide on your visa status. A concept you don't seem to get because you still haven't snapped out of your Great White British dream.

[Aimless]

I don't think freedom of movement is just the domain of racism and racists

A person for whom the matter of freedom of movement of persons is more important than all the other aspects of Brexit is very likely to be a racist, but this misses the point of that exchange. The point is that pretty much all versions of Brexit that retain the freedom of movement are nevertheless likely to result in an outcome that does a great deal "about the reasons they voted to leave in the first place" so your characterization was inaccurate.

the "no compromise" attitudes demonstrated by the Europhiles on here goes far beyond just that area

What kind of "compromise"--that isn't inimical to the core values, guiding principles and survival of the EU--would you like to see? Can you give some specific examples?

Hazir has more than demonstrated that it's exactly what he wants, except with, you know, absolutely no decision-making participation allowed by the Brits. Restricted economic participation, full EU regulatory authority, free movement of persons, full dues (and without that rebate) etc.

Perhaps you should ask Hazir about this again and see if he can't give you a more nuanced account of his views.

Not being an EU member doesn't mean a visa is required for tourism (I don't need a visa to take a vacation in Europe) but you and even Aimless were trumpeting about that as a possibility.

Although I'm very dismayed to find that you apparently have no idea what a trumpet sounds like, I'm glad you offered that example because it illustrates quite well why I did not dismiss the visa matter out of hand in spite of it seeming so improbable as to be completely unworthy of discussion even under the standards established by RB.

While you don't need a visa to vacation in Europe, many Europeans--by a rough estimate approximately 70 million EU citizens--do need visas to vacation in the US. This is relevant not only because of the way the principle of reciprocity is currently viewed in the context of the Common Visa Policy but also because all these nations non grata have demonstrated that they will leverage their veto rights to gain the right to visa-free travel for their citizens. A priori, it is entirely possible that the UK will at least consider imposing visa requirements on the unwashed thieving vermin citizens of those EU member states, esp. considering the public and political discourse we saw leading up to the referendum, and it is therefore within the realm of possibility that UK citizens will require visas to enter EU countries under some Brexit scenarios. If we'd had this discussion a year ago I would've said that I believe they'd fast-track a provisional agreement specifically waiving visa requirements for UK citizens but the political opposition to such special treatment seems to be much stronger today.