Trump & Putin / Grand Bargain?

[Lewkowski]

http://www.economist.com/news/leader...vladimir-putin

"GEORGE W. BUSH looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes and thought he saw his soul. He was wrong. Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia, but by the end of his term in office Russia had annexed Crimea, stirred up conflict elsewhere in Ukraine and filled the power vacuum that Mr Obama had left in Syria. Donald Trump appears to want to go much further and forge an entirely new strategic alignment with Russia. Can he succeed, or will he be the third American president in a row to be outfoxed by Mr Putin?

The details of Mr Trump’s realignment are still vague and changeable. That is partly because of disagreements in his inner circle. Even as his ambassador to the UN offered “clear and strong condemnation” of “Russia’s aggressive actions” in Ukraine, the president’s bromance with Mr Putin was still smouldering. When an interviewer on Fox News put it to Mr Trump this week that Mr Putin is “a killer”, he retorted: “There are a lot of killers. What, you think our country’s so innocent?”"


"The quest for a grand bargain with Mr Putin is delusional. No matter how great a negotiator Mr Trump is, no good deal is to be had. Indeed, an overlooked risk is that Mr Trump, double-crossed and thin-skinned, will end up presiding over a dangerous and destabilising falling-out with Mr Putin.

Better than either a bargain or a falling-out would be to work at the small things to improve America’s relations with Russia. This might include arms control and stopping Russian and American forces accidentally coming to blows. Congressional Republicans and his more sensible advisers, such as his secretaries of state and defence, should strive to convince Mr Trump of this. The alternative would be very bad indeed."

I'm curious what a 'grand bargain' would actually look like. 'Bargaining chips' for America?

- Lifting Sanctions
- Realignment with NATO (either leaving it, highly doubtful, or restricting new countries on the eastern side of Europe from being allowed to join)
- Scrapping Missile defense programs in Europe

What does Russia have to offer though?

- Stop selling shit to Iran and help US deal with country (economically or more)
- Change in Syria policy
- ??

Russia's been a huge dick to its neighbors and in making the Middle East a more difficult place to operate in. I'm curious what y'all predict will happen and what the consequences would be of them. Personally I don't see any major shifts in current US/Russia relations despite the somewhat pro-Putin talk Trump has done.

[Hazir]

More interesting would be the question if Trump's grand bargain actually constitutes a high crime.

[Loki]

The most Russia can realistically offer is a promise not to invade the Baltics. Not only would that be rather small compensation for everything it wants in return, but it doesn't exactly have a great reputation for keeping its promises.

[Lewkowski]

The most Russia can realistically offer is a promise not to invade the Baltics. Not only would that be rather small compensation for everything it wants in return, but it doesn't exactly have a great reputation for keeping its promises.

That's short sighted. Not saying Russia would do it but no longer backing Syria and no long supporting Iran would be things America would love for Russia to change.

[Aimless]

That's short sighted. Not saying Russia would do it but no longer backing Syria and no long supporting Iran would be things America would love for Russia to change.

Neither seem likely in foreseeable future, and even if Russia were willing to entertain those ideas it isn't likely to come at a cost that the US would--or should--find acceptable. Certainly not if you go by the bargaining chips you listed in the OP. Or do you think selling out Eastern Europe and the Baltics would be a worthwhile trade for anything?

[Steely Glint]

Russia's invested way too much in Syria to just give it up. Come on.

[Loki]

That's short sighted. Not saying Russia would do it but no longer backing Syria and no long supporting Iran would be things America would love for Russia to change.

There's no way in hell Russia agrees to either. Furthermore, why does Trump care if Russia backs Assad?

[Lewkowski]

Neither seem likely in foreseeable future, and even if Russia were willing to entertain those ideas it isn't likely to come at a cost that the US would--or should--find acceptable. Certainly not if you go by the bargaining chips you listed in the OP. Or do you think selling out Eastern Europe and the Baltics would be a worthwhile trade for anything?

Right that would be the grand bargain, I'm not suggesting we *should* I'm saying what would the possibilities be? What does Putin value more? Europe or the Middle East? What value does Putin place on getting out of the sanctions?

[Hazir]

Putin being in Syria is a function of making Russia count in Europe.