Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
I didn't have a chance to challenge this earlier, but I will now. The Dems have a decent chance of taking the House in 2018; the generic Congressional ballot combined with past history on midterms and DJT's high disapproval rating suggests that a lot of marginal districts will swing. But the Senate map is awful for Democrats in 2018. There are only 8 GOP Senate seats up for grabs and 26 Dem seats - that means they need to hold every seat and pick up 2 of the 8 in order to flip the Senate. It's possible, but hard. Six of the seats are Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Mississippi, Texas, and Tennessee. All except Tennessee are being contested by incumbents and they'd be very hard to unseat given the demographics of the states and them not being known pedophiles. Corker's seat in Tennessee is marginally contestable but not very likely.

That leaves Arizona (Flake's seat) and Nevada. They have a chance to at least pick up AZ. That leaves them having to get another seat somewhere and also needing to defend seats in places like North Dakota, West Virginia, Florida, Missouri, Wyoming, etc. - all of which are at least contestable by the GOP.

Even though the margin in the Senate is smaller, they still don't have a great chance of flipping the Senate. Putting a Dem in the Alabama seat gave them a huge boost, but it's by no means a shoo-in.
I tend to agree but then I never thought Trump would win the primary (until late in the game) and was sure he would lose the election against Clinton. Politics hasn't been as predicable as it normally is.