Will The Real Beto Please Stand Up?

[LittleFuzzy]

I think you give voters too much credit for ideological coherence. I don't disagree with anything you say, but I could see a decent chunk of independents voting for Sanders just because he's anti-establishment.

There would be independents and non-participating Dems that would stir themselves to vote if Sanders or someone similarly progressive were nominated, sure. But it goes both ways, there are others who did vote for Biden who would not have voted for someone that progressive (even if they should have reminded themselves that Trump was a worse result). But there are very very few who voted for Trump but would have supported Sanders instead. And there are a lot that didn't vote for Trump but would have if Sanders was the opponent. I look at the states which did or might have swung and I just don't see Sanders doing a lot better than Biden there and I do see Trump doing much better. If the election was about the overall popular vote then ok, a Sanders win would have been a possibility in 2020.

What would happen if he won is that a whole lot more Democratic senators would be in rebellion against him. He wouldn't be able to pass any legislation. Which means ruling through executive actions. Something that's not exactly great for democracy.

He would not be able to implement his own agenda. He'd presumably still be signing the legislation a Democratic Congress does want to push through though? Assuming, of course, that the Senate totals wouldn't have changed as well. There were several close races. And if he'd chosen another senator as a running mate, that would be another -1. A divided Congress wouldn't be passing much of what Biden has signed into law either. And one has to wonder if McConnell would actually sit there and just leave vacancies on SCOTUS for a straight four years. If he did let the one through, you can be sure he'd never let a second go, not after the prospect of Roe being overturned was dangled.

[Loki]

There would be independents and non-participating Dems that would stir themselves to vote if Sanders or someone similarly progressive were nominated, sure. But it goes both ways, there are others who did vote for Biden who would not have voted for someone that progressive (even if they should have reminded themselves that Trump was a worse result). But there are very very few who voted for Trump but would have supported Sanders instead. And there are a lot that didn't vote for Trump but would have if Sanders was the opponent. I look at the states which did or might have swung and I just don't see Sanders doing a lot better than Biden there and I do see Trump doing much better. If the election was about the overall popular vote then ok, a Sanders win would have been a possibility in 2020.

I could see Sanders doing better with the union members who've defected to the GOP in the past decade. A lot of them are in the Midwest. Didn't something like 10% of Sanders supporters vote for Trump? Might the reverse not also happen?

He would not be able to implement his own agenda. He'd presumably still be signing the legislation a Democratic Congress does want to push through though? Assuming, of course, that the Senate totals wouldn't have changed as well. There were several close races. And if he'd chosen another senator as a running mate, that would be another -1. A divided Congress wouldn't be passing much of what Biden has signed into law either. And one has to wonder if McConnell would actually sit there and just leave vacancies on SCOTUS for a straight four years. If he did let the one through, you can be sure he'd never let a second go, not after the prospect of Roe being overturned was dangled.

Sanders isn't known for compromise. He'd opt for maximalist goals and end with nothing. Like his entire career in the Senate. There's no way we'd have an infrastructure bill. There's no way he'd give anything to Sinema or Manchin for their support. So it would really be 48-52, even assuming he didn't cost the Democrats seats in Georgia.

Whatever you think about McConnell, it's always safe to assume he's actually worse.

[LittleFuzzy]

I could see Sanders doing better with the union members who've defected to the GOP in the past decade. A lot of them are in the Midwest. Didn't something like 10% of Sanders supporters vote for Trump? Might the reverse not also happen?

8-15% In 2016. There wasn't a clear study done for 2020 AFAIK. A quick glance indicates what little polling on the topic was done showed any such swing in 2020 was going to be smaller. 4-7%.