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Thread: Greece, the gloves are off

  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Some of the "hysteria" seems connected to those damn ratings agencies. Looks a lot like when they suddenly downgraded MBSs, Lehman and Bear....massive sell-offs. Greek bonds can become junk over night, but they were junk long ago. Then it's like a vicious cycle of downgrades, selling, financing debt more expensive, deficit rises, rinse repeat. PIGS--what will happen?

    The current rating for Greek bonds is just that, a rating. A bit of a useless rating as Greece for the time being probably won't be borrowing in the market.
    Congratulations America

  2. #212
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/06/bu...ef=global-home


    E.U. Official Vents Frustration Over Ratings Agencies

    By JAMES KANTER
    Published: May 5, 2010


    BRUSSELS — The European Union’s financial services commissioner, Michel Barnier, vented his frustration with U.S.-based credit ratings agencies Wednesday as Moody’s Investors Service put Portugal on review for another possible downgrade that could make it more difficult for the country to service its debt.
    Multimedia

    Mr. Barnier was briefing reporters ahead of his first official visit to the United States, where he was to meet the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner. He will also meet with Wall Street titans like Lloyd C. Blankfein, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, and Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase.

    Mr. Barnier complained that there were too few debt rating agencies, and he suggested that they were overly dominated by U.S. owners.

    “There are not enough ratings agencies, not enough competition, and not enough diversity,” he said. “Why should there not be an agency that is more European than those that exist today?”

    A decision by Standard & Poor’s, also based in the United States, to downgrade Greece’s debt to junk status last month enraged E.U. officials, who questioned whether the ratings agencies were accurately assessing how likely it was that countries in the euro zone would default on their sovereign debts.

    Mr. Barnier said it was “an open question” whether such an alternative agency should be run by the private sector or by a public body.

    During his trip, Mr. Barnier will quiz Mr. Blankfein on controversial financial transactions like credit default swaps as part of efforts to gather data before deciding whether or not to ban certain practices in Europe, E.U. officials said.

    Another thorny issue for Mr. Barnier is regulation of hedge funds. In March, Mr. Geithner warned Mr. Barnier in a letter not to pass a law on hedge funds “that would discriminate against U.S. firms and deny them the access to the E.U. market that the currently have.”

    Mr. Barnier said Wednesday he would use his visit to Washington to establish a closer working relationship with Mr. Geithner and to reassure him that he was doing everything he could to pass a law that would be nondiscriminatory. But Mr. Barnier said that he would explain to Mr. Geithner that the final decision on legislation would be up to E.U. governments and the European Parliament.

    Mr. Barnier may also deliver that message to top players in the private equity industry, like Henry Kravis, a co-founder of Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts, at a dinner Sunday in New York.

    On Monday in Brussels, a powerful committee in the European Parliament is expected to hold a preliminary vote on the proposed law on hedge funds, which could include rules that would raise the bar for access of foreign funds and fund managers to the E.U. market.
    Similar opinion in BBC. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...made_them.html

    It's about time!

  3. #213
    You realize his argument is that there should be no transparency, right? Credit ratings apparently should be done either directly or indirectly by those whose ratings are being judges. Great idea.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  4. #214
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    You realize his argument is that there should be no transparency, right? Credit ratings apparently should be done either directly or indirectly by those whose ratings are being judges. Great idea.
    Which guy--Barnier or Peston? I'm just glad there's talk about Moody's, S & P and Fitch across the pond, not just in the US.

  5. #215
    What a thuggish petty bureaucrat. The ratings agencies finally start to call bullshit on their finances and he starts complaining that those "private" "American" companies have too much power?

    If they don't downgrade/notice crap, the ratings agencies are criticized for inflating bubbles. If they do downgrade (or threaten downgrades —*after all, this was just a notice), they are criticized for making lending expensive.

  6. #216
    Welcome to the world of eurocrats.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10097107.stm

    What the guy is proposing is creating a government-run credit agency that would rate those very same governments. Just how dumb does he think the markets are?
    Hope is the denial of reality

  7. #217
    It matters less to me who brings it up, it needs to be addressed. It's not headline news in the US, but there are questions, even directed at fannie and freddie loan ratings. AAA for years then boom, oops we just figured out 90% of WaMu's HELOCs were liars loans / stated income loans? I don't buy it---I think they've done a crappy job or have conflicted incentives. They're paid by the very companies they're rating.


    If the EU wants to add more ratings agencies to the US dominabt ones, that's fine by me. (I don't see the demand that they be a government-run agency, though.) What happened to the "competition is good for capitalism" mantra?

    You both love the status quo so much, you can't even think outside the box.

  8. #218
    Why you would think a new agency would be any different from these is beyond me.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  9. #219
    There are already other, smaller, private ones. Fund managers and hedge funds also write their own "ratings" all the time. They just don't have the 'blessing' from the SEC or governments

    "The rating agencies' assessment of the quality of bonds or tradeable debt issued by public sector and private sector is, officially, the last word on the subject - and has been since the early 1970s, when the SEC in the US started using their ratings to assess the strength of securities firms' balance sheets.

    So, for example, the Bank of England typically provides credit to commercial banks if those banks provide bonds as collateral to it that are classified as AAA by rating agencies. The ECB operates a lower quality threshold for the provision of funds or liquidity to banks, but still uses the rating agencies as arbiters of the relevant security or collateral quality.

    Which in turn conditions the investment decisions of banks, insurance companies and pension funds: if a bond loses its AAA status, the potential size of the market for that bond shrinks, at a stroke."

  10. #220
    So...how about we just let any company alos be a credit rating agency? And may the most reputable one win business from people who want detailed credit ratings?

    Because we both know politicians won't criticize them when they downgrade government debt.

  11. #221
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    So...how about we just let any company alos be a credit rating agency? And may the most reputable one win business from people who want detailed credit ratings?
    That's the idea, yeah.

    Because we both know politicians won't criticize them when they downgrade government debt.
    If they're truly independent and stand by their data and analyses, and prove to be accurate, politicians whining won't matter.

  12. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Why you would think a new agency would be any different from these is beyond me.
    Because she doesn't understand how markets work, or the basics of economics, and so on? Well, that's my guess, anyway.
    "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

    -- Thomas Jefferson: American Founding Father, clairvoyant and seditious traitor.

  13. #223
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    That's the idea, yeah.



    If they're truly independent and stand by their data and analyses, and prove to be accurate, politicians whining won't matter.
    Most analysis would put the ratings for government debt a lot lower, but they tend to actually lower ratings very reluctantly. Can't blame 'em, after all look at what happened when they issued a notice that they are considering possibly looking at the data again to possibly lower Portugal's rating from "very solid" to "somewhat solid".

  14. #224
    That's part of the problem--everyone runs like a lemming when they change a call from buy to hold or sell, it can actually "move" markets. Even though most of the time they're very late, or were very wrong in the first place.

  15. #225
    That can't have anything to do with how subjective risk is and how much of a role expectations play, right? No, if only the government had greater control over this industry, we'd all be better off.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  16. #226
    A decision by Standard & Poor’s, also based in the United States, to downgrade Greece’s debt to junk status last month enraged E.U. officials, who questioned whether the ratings agencies were accurately assessing how likely it was that countries in the euro zone would default on their sovereign debts.
    When a country can't pay its debts and has to have a bailout from the IMF I would classify their bond rating as junk too. I mean seriously if there wasn't a problem in Greece why would there be an issue? This guy is retarded.

  17. #227
    "Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt

  18. #228
    De Oppresso Liber CitizenCain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by earthJoker View Post
    Mossad operative, obviously.
    "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

    -- Thomas Jefferson: American Founding Father, clairvoyant and seditious traitor.

  19. #229
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    That can't have anything to do with how subjective risk is and how much of a role expectations play, right? No, if only the government had greater control over this industry, we'd all be better off.
    Again, where did either link say it was a government to be given greater control?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    When a country can't pay its debts and has to have a bailout from the IMF I would classify their bond rating as junk too. I mean seriously if there wasn't a problem in Greece why would there be an issue? This guy is retarded.
    Of course they'd be down-graded. The question is what took so long....rather like Iceland, or Ireland. PIIGS. None of this massive debt load happens overnight, but the three main raters have become so routine that their accuracy and timing isn't even questioned.

    As far as I'm concerned, fannie and freddie, and most state / municipal bonds should be rated "junk", too. But they're not, because they're backed by faith in US government. The US can't pay its debts either, without a bailout from the Fed and Treasury, and our printing press.


  20. #230
    Of course they'd be down-graded. The question is what took so long....rather like Iceland, or Ireland. PIIGS. None of this massive debt load happens overnight, but the three main raters have become so routine that their accuracy and timing isn't even questioned.
    Greece hid much of its debt burden. Furthermore the amount of growth that is being projected has a big impact on weather or not a country can pay its debts.

    As far as I'm concerned, fannie and freddie, and most state / municipal bonds should be rated "junk", too. But they're not, because they're backed by faith in US government. The US can't pay its debts either, without a bailout from the Fed and Treasury, and our printing press.
    State and municipal bonds are NOT backed by faith in the US government. As far as Fannie and Freddie, well they should be dropped. Government should not have any quasi companies like that in existence. The BIG part of the housing problem was the lack of risk mortgage lenders had when underwriting loans. Why was there limited risk? Because those mortgages could be easily offloaded.

  21. #231
    Take a look at the debt we have from the bail-out. The housing bubble also took off because of bad loans given to bad credit, bad AAA ratings for MBSs and those CDOs. That's how they got offloaded. Now the tax payers carry the debt and the risk. *edit and yes Greece hid its debt, just like our investment firms banks did with accounting tricks, and states do it, too.*

    As for Greece, I turned on CNN to see this massive riot. The NYSE went down fast and sudden. It's almost like everyone is just realizing the depth of sovereign debt, interconnected globally, and not much faith in the ability for politicians to fix this mess.


  22. #232
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    Interestingly enough the panic in the markets is giving the Eurozone exactly the kind of devaluation that anglo's are always talking about. I don't know if the devaluation of the euro is what the Brits need right now. It makes me think that it just makes the chance bigger that they will be the next in line rather than Portugal or Spain.
    Congratulations America

  23. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Take a look at the debt we have from the bail-out. The housing bubble also took off because of bad loans given to bad credit, bad AAA ratings for MBSs and those CDOs. That's how they got offloaded. Now the tax payers carry the debt and the risk.
    No, the whole problem was that (through Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac), junk mortgages were guaranteed by the US government in the first place. And when they inevitably failed, the banks went looking to the organizations that had guaranteed those shit loans in the first place - Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac, and thus, the government/tax payers.

    Holy hell, woman. Get a clue about the topic - you've just been corrected by Lewk.
    "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

    -- Thomas Jefferson: American Founding Father, clairvoyant and seditious traitor.

  24. #234
    Quote Originally Posted by CitizenCain View Post
    No, the whole problem was that (through Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac), junk mortgages were guaranteed by the US government in the first place. And when they inevitably failed, the banks went looking to the organizations that had guaranteed those shit loans in the first place - Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac, and thus, the government/tax payers.
    We've already done the blame game, and given credit to teh gummint for their misdeeds. I can't recall anyone on this forum who loves and justifies the F's. We've also gone 'round about how private firms jumped on the band wagon, buying up loans and turning them into WMD. This started as a sub-prime crisis but it had tentacles into prime and jumbo loans, too. That was the fault of banks taking excessive risk on their own, not that the gummint forced them into it. WaMu wasn't forced to make home equity loans that were 90% stated income loans, they did that all on their own.

    Partly why Alan, Ben and Hank didn't have a clue, and kept saying the crisis would be contained.

    Holy hell, woman. Get a clue about the topic - you've just been corrected by Lewk.
    Only because he misinterpreted what I said about munis. People still buy them, thinking no state would go bankrupt, and hey they're rated AAA! He also seems to think only teh gummint buys mortgages on the secondary market to spread risk around.

  25. #235
    I'd hate to point out the obvious, but even securities with an AAA rating have a risk of defaulting; that risk is just smaller than the risk of other securities.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  26. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    That was the fault of banks taking excessive risk on their own, not that the gummint forced them into it. WaMu wasn't forced to make home equity loans that were 90% stated income loans, they did that all on their own.
    Because the federal government promised to cover any losses (so the bank was looking at risk-free profits on the mortgages), and then reneged on its promise. The only mistake the banks made was believing the government in the first place.

    A lesson for us all.
    "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

    -- Thomas Jefferson: American Founding Father, clairvoyant and seditious traitor.

  27. #237
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I'd hate to point out the obvious, but even securities with an AAA rating have a risk of defaulting; that risk is just smaller than the risk of other securities.
    Then stop feeling the need to point out the obvious.

    Quote Originally Posted by CitizenCain View Post
    Because the federal government promised to cover any losses (so the bank was looking at risk-free profits on the mortgages), and then reneged on its promise. The only mistake the banks made was believing the government in the first place.

    A lesson for us all.
    The joke's on us.

    That's why people got pissed about TARP and TALF (and all the other program acronyms) and Too Big To Fail. Basically, the huge private gains were fine until it fell apart, then the tax payers get hit up for the bail-out.

    Then the bankers cried about how no one warned them or took the punch bowl away (see SEC and Wall St's voluntary laissez-faire agreement that failed), but they also want to whine about the new financial regulation reforms coming down the pike....

    Anyway, we all have learned very strange attitudes toward debt. Personal, municipal, state, national, global sovereign debt. Now it's coming out from behind the curtain in huge ways.

    It's not gonna be pretty.

  28. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    The joke's on us.

    That's why people got pissed about TARP and TALF (and all the other program acronyms) and Too Big To Fail. Basically, the huge private gains were fine until it fell apart, then the tax payers get hit up for the bail-out.
    Well, duh.

    That's practically the definition of guaranteeing debt. If people don't like it, they should direct their anger at the idiots who made the promise in the first place, not the people who did what anyone would do, and took advantage of the "free" government money.

    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Then the bankers cried about how no one warned them or took the punch bowl away (see SEC and Wall St's voluntary laissez-faire agreement that failed), but they also want to whine about the new financial regulation reforms coming down the pike....
    Well, yeah, and they're right to complain - the only reason they made those plays in the first place was because the government promised them that the plays were risk-free. Take away the government promise that it's not possible to lose money, and these kind of disastrous risks never get taken in the first place.
    "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

    -- Thomas Jefferson: American Founding Father, clairvoyant and seditious traitor.

  29. #239
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    I found the comment of that Pimco CEO interesting. What it boiled down to is that the rating agencies are really at the core of this crisis. Again now with Greece; they gave Greek bonds a way too positive rating in the past and now are by their overly late downgradings adding to the panic.

    The funny thing about all this is that I don't even know if I was/am right to strive for an absolute minimum in indebtedness.
    Congratulations America

  30. #240
    Quote Originally Posted by CitizenCain View Post
    Well, duh.

    That's practically the definition of guaranteeing debt. If people don't like it, they should direct their anger at the idiots who made the promise in the first place, not the people who did what anyone would do, and took advantage of the "free" government money.
    That's what the protests in Greece are about---they're angry at their politicians, mad about generations of corruption and grift. This has been going on for decades, their distrust of government from when they had military rule. They still harbor resentment to the Turks. It's been common and rule-of-thumb to not pay taxes, avoid them, bribe an official, use unions "for the people" as a way to screw the legislators, all sorts of things.

    From what I've read (and heard from my sister's Greek family) the middle class is mad at the upper and ruling classes, the wealthy who don't pay their fair share of taxes. There is wealth in Greece, but it comes with special privileges from taxation. Even their physicians are exempt from income taxes.



    Well, yeah, and they're right to complain - the only reason they made those plays in the first place was because the government promised them that the plays were risk-free. Take away the government promise that it's not possible to lose money, and these kind of disastrous risks never get taken in the first place.
    And you wonder why I support an audit of the Federal Reserve, don't like the crony capitalism we've seen, and rant about FinReg?

    They weren't just too big to fail, but too metastisized and too connected with policy makers to be ignored. That doesn't give them the right to complain and whine, sobbing in their million dollar bonii, after they practically took down our whole economy. How poetic, the Big Boys don't want their toys taken away because they can't play fair, but don't want a nanny/daddy either. Buncha Babies.

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