The Lunacy of Sage Advice in Unprecedented Times -*- So Much for the Village Elders

[EyeKhan]

Origins: I got this topic idea from a post I made in the Panic/Purge/Patience thread. Instructions for life, this is what you do, follow this.... sage advice for unprecedented times.

The Opening Post:

Modern history is short. How things are now is really short. But behavior proceeds, or seems to proceed, as though current conditions are long established and understood. A personal example is retirement planning. How can anyone give you or me retirement planning advice that is based on anything but wild conjecture? Every decade in the last ten has been economically different in a way that would prescribe different actions/critera, looking back and forward, for a successful retirement.

I dare to say that today: IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PLAN FOR YOUR RETIREMENT. Nobody can say whether saving in bonds, stocks, cash (mattress or bank), or realestate (of any kind) makes sense. Or whether RETIREMENT as a concept is even relevant anymore.

I wrote this in that PPP thread:

This is what you do:

#1. Buy as much house as you can afford in a good, stable neighborhood. Take good care of your property, make regular upgrades to bathrooms and kitchen. Pay extra on your mortgage every month or whenever you can. Mark the check "for principle only." When you go to sell, it will be worth every bit you put in and then some.

#2. Put as much money in your 401k as you can from every pay check. Make it automatic so you will stop thinking about it. Put your money into aggressive investments early on and transition to more secure investments as you get older. Ignore the ups and downs of the market, just keep on depositing your money. When you retire, you'll have a zillion dollars.

#3. If you can max out your 401k contributions and you have extra disposable income, put money into an IRA account and/or an after tax account. Follow the same regimen as above.

#4. Live happily ever after.

http://www.theworldforgotten.com/sho...p?t=714&page=5

But its all bull shit. None of these things has worked out particularly well. The people retiring today did this and something else - look how well its all worked out. The people just starting out in the work force right now gotta be thinking of a different plan. When I retire, this shit isn't going to sustain me. Who the hell knows what will in thirty or forty years? NOBODY.

So all you Monkeys chimed in with your own sage advice which probably unintentionally was about as deep and meaningful as this crap. And it was FUNNY.

AND

So reading that Decline and Fall of the United States of America thread, telling us we don't have the money or the freedom with think we have and that you shouldn't have to live constantly in fear of losing your basic necessities and all that, I came back to this. Its true and it isn't true. Everyone seemed so concerned about the implication that the US is a falling giant, a decadent society embracing decline more or less with greed and lack of vision, a nation ruled by the pentagon which probably means Ike's Military Industrial Complex. The part about quality of life here being not all that great, not what it seems to be, even from inside, is just as provoking, and in a way surreal.

The thing is, the Modern US, like the rest of the world, isn't what it was even twenty years ago. NOTHING IS. Our entire modern history is like that - changing faster and faster so that you can't look at history and what we think our current state is and say "yeah, that's it, that's wot its all 'bout and where its all goin' - ta 'ell in a 'andbasket, that." No.

Just like nobody can tell you what to do to safeguard your future when you're no longer able to work, or you no longer have any relevant skills to be paid well for your time, nobody can tell you what's going to happen to the United States if it keeps trying to Starve the Beast, or stops, or Western Europe if it keeps caring so much about its citizens, or stops. Or if both GeoPol entities keep pushing Globalization relying on the third world to build our labor intensive stuff. Or if China keeps growing like The Blob. Or even if Iran gets nukes. (BOO!) Or we keep burning fossil fuels. Or we move heaven and Earth to stop.

The thing thats going to define our health and welfare in the next hundred years is almost certainly the thing nobody's talking about. So don't try to tell me what to do to be safe. There is no safety, only surprise.

And that's why we don't value old people anymore. The lives they lived are less and less relevant to the lives we are all living. Just like your's. So much for the Village Elders.



EDIT: Oh, and lets have that Sage Advice you fucking LUNATICS!

[wiggin]

How exactly is this false? Very few people who follow your quoted rules carefully have significant financial trouble in retirement. Generally, people get into trouble when they live too close to their means (or predict continued outsized gains on investments that are totally at odds with historical trends). If your general point is that 'past performance cannot guarantee future results', you're absolutely right. But generally long-term trends of sufficiently diversified investments have been shown to give decent returns, just nothing crazy.

Yes, there are 'black swan' events that are effectively impossible to predict. That's why anyone sane following 'sage' advice would have a healthy margin for error, and keep core expenses to a small fraction of their anticipated earnings.

I'm unimpressed by your point.

[Veldan Rath]

I'm unimpressed by your point.

Sums it up.

[LittleFuzzy]

Ah, what an unsurprising claim. "Everything is sui generis." That's just mental laziness.

[Being]

How exactly is this false? Very few people who follow your quoted rules carefully have significant financial trouble in retirement. Generally, people get into trouble when they live too close to their means (or predict continued outsized gains on investments that are totally at odds with historical trends). If your general point is that 'past performance cannot guarantee future results', you're absolutely right. But generally long-term trends of sufficiently diversified investments have been shown to give decent returns, just nothing crazy.

Yes, there are 'black swan' events that are effectively impossible to predict. That's why anyone sane following 'sage' advice would have a healthy margin for error, and keep core expenses to a small fraction of their anticipated earnings.

I'm unimpressed by your point.

You are saying economies will continue in the same fashion they have for x number of years (x being the number you base your assumption on). That is as foolish as living beyond means that might not materialize. Do you believe stocks will continue to average 8% gains forever?

[wiggin]

You are saying economies will continue in the same fashion they have for x number of years (x being the number you base your assumption on). That is as foolish as living beyond means that might not materialize. Do you believe stocks will continue to average 8% gains forever?

Not at all. I'm arguing that in principle the basic ideas of economics are sound - and that returns, while fluctuating (even on longer time scales), follow fairly straightforward rules. Riskier assets by and large return higher returns, in exchange for various risks and volatility. The specific returns are largely immaterial, and anyone who 'banks' on X% returns is deluding themselves. A sufficiently diversified portfolio, though, should give decent risk-adjusted returns that beat inflation (the only metric that really matters here).

Obviously, economies can fall, currencies can become worthless, governments can default, companies can go bankrupt, etc. In such cases, assets you were holding in X economy/company/currency/bond will be worthless, or nearly so. Yet that's why people diversify, to cushion the blow of any one bad apple. Furthermore, there is some element of reasonable judgment involved - only an idiot would have bought Zimbabwe dollars in recent years, and the reason why US equities tend to do so well is the consensus of the markets about the stability of the US economy - you can get better returns elsewhere, but not necessarily better safer returns. To really lose 'everything', we'd have to have a wholesale collapse of the world's institutions, in which case I think we'll have bigger things to worry about. Otherwise, it's all a matter of hedging risks appropriately and keeping down one's needs. The numbers may change, but the underlying strategy is sound.

My issue with Chaloobi's thinking is that not only does it preclude applying the general rules of how the world works to new situations (which is pretty silly IMO; science does it all the time, and it works pretty well), but it also is predicated on incorrect claims that the basic idea of retirement savings is off-kilter.

[Lewkowski]

#1. Buy as much house as you can afford in a good, stable neighborhood. Take good care of your property, make regular upgrades to bathrooms and kitchen. Pay extra on your mortgage every month or whenever you can. Mark the check "for principle only." When you go to sell, it will be worth every bit you put in and then some.

Other then buying "as much house as you can afford" that is rock solid advice. Being in a good stable neighborhood is good for mental peace and getting your kids a good education. Making extra payments to principle is always good.

#2. Put as much money in your 401k as you can from every pay check. Make it automatic so you will stop thinking about it. Put your money into aggressive investments early on and transition to more secure investments as you get older. Ignore the ups and downs of the market, just keep on depositing your money. When you retire, you'll have a zillion dollars.

Sounds like an excellent plan to me.

#3. If you can max out your 401k contributions and you have extra disposable income, put money into an IRA account and/or an after tax account. Follow the same regimen as above.

Again this is good advice.

#4. Live happily ever after.

I've met very few people who maxed out their 401(k) contribution and didn't get over their heads in debt that are having financial difficulties.

[GGT]

I smell an age gap here. Choobie, I know exactly what you meant.

The thing thats going to define our health and welfare in the next hundred years is almost certainly the thing nobody's talking about. So don't try to tell me what to do to be safe. There is no safety, only surprise.

And that's why we don't value old people anymore. The lives they lived are less and less relevant to the lives we are all living. Just like your's. So much for the Village Elders.

EDIT: Oh, and lets have that Sage Advice you fucking LUNATICS!

Sage advice won't come from anyone in their 20s or 30s. That's just fact. There's an incredible amount of anxiety in anyone over 40....but not so much in anyone over 70. The "safety nets" are not sound, the markets are full of fundamental problems and volatility, and it's not business as usual.

The world changed so fast, but our ideas about Risk and Trust, or even "Doing The Right Thing" has been challenged and not changed accordingly.

We get anything from traditional advice---the dollar is sound, the US won't fail, stocks and bonds are better than cash under the mattress, don't be afraid to "invest", just do it WISELY --- to SELL IT ALL NOW and get out, the US can default too, our deficit/debt/dollar are in jeopardy, it's a rigged game that we can't play without going insolvent, the whole thing is a ponzi scheme, a house of cards ....blah blah

The American Dream. heh

I worry for my children, and their children. So do you. Some basic, ingrained market and economic-related beliefs have been upended. Along with political and legislative moves. No, we don't trust the experts so much anymore, because look where they've taken us.

There's a confidence element here. Plus the sense that we've been chumped by all sorts of illusions. And if the younger people here pay any attention, they'd better hope the baby boomers and sandwich generations don't decide to liquidate their IRAs, stop feeding their 401-Ks, cash out and tread water, because that can trigger panic....then THEIR investments will lose value.

It's amazing how fast it could all fall apart.

[Being]

Except,

...they'd better hope the baby boomers and sandwich generations don't decide to liquidate their IRAs, stop feeding their 401-Ks, cash out and tread water, because that can trigger panic....then THEIR investments will lose value.

Young financial professionals are working on elliminating that potential by slowly manuevering the value of the funds, as we hum and haw, to the point they won't make a big dent when we finally decide to make the move.

[GGT]

I'm not a betting person, but I'll bet there are hedge funds (with multiples and aggregates of cash that outweigh numbers of "retail investors") that are using some wild new quantum algorithm to move the markets just where they want them to go.....

When the house of cards comes tumbling down, the hedge funds, account managers, funds of funds, CEOs and COOs will walk away solvent and quite rich. With their attorneys. Then they'll be like Madoff and say "Fuck my victims, I carried them for 20 years". But most won't be saying that from prison, but a beach.

Before we die, we can follow them around to be their nannies, maids, chefs, gardeners, and chauffeurs. If we're savvy enough, we could create an industry designing pretty purses or cupcake chew cookies for their pure bred lap doggies. Or cleaning up their poopies.

If we're old and infirmed, perhaps we can putter around watering their gardens or dusting their marble busts, in exchange for a bed above their garage. With cold running water.

[Being]

I'm not a betting person, but I'll bet there are hedge funds (with multiples and aggregates of cash that outweigh numbers of "retail investors") that are using some wild new quantum algorithm to move the markets just where they want them to go.....

When the house of cards comes tumbling down, the hedge funds, account managers, funds of funds, CEOs and COOs will walk away solvent and quite rich. With their attorneys. Then they'll be like Madoff and say "Fuck my victims, I carried them for 20 years". But most won't be saying that from prison, but a beach.

Before we die, we can follow them around to be their nannies, maids, chefs, gardeners, and chauffeurs. If we're savvy enough, we could create an industry designing pretty purses or cupcake chew cookies for their pure bred lap doggies. Or cleaning up their poopies.

If we're old and infirmed, perhaps we can putter around watering their gardens or dusting their marble busts, in exchange for a bed above their garage. With cold running water.

Ha! Maybe if you are one of the lucky lackies. The ratio of lacky to employer will be just shy of infinity.


edit: lacky just doesn't seem like the right word; a little help please, I'm a bit alcoholized.

[wiggin]

We get anything from traditional advice---the dollar is sound, the US won't fail, stocks and bonds are better than cash under the mattress, don't be afraid to "invest", just do it WISELY --- to SELL IT ALL NOW and get out, the US can default too, our deficit/debt/dollar are in jeopardy, it's a rigged game that we can't play without going insolvent, the whole thing is a ponzi scheme, a house of cards ....blah blah].

Are you serious? For one, no one has thought the US dollar was a great investment for quite some time, largely due to structural problems in the US economy. Furthermore, the size of our debt and our current account deficit have been concerns for as long as I can remember (though I would challenge you to find a credible economist who still doesn't think US Treasuries are the safest investment out there). Stocks and bonds and various other investments are the only way to beat inflation, which cash under the mattress most definitely won't do - you're trading inflation risk for some market/default risk. Nor is the whole thing a 'Ponzi scheme', unless you're investing in incredibly risky assets on the assumption of steady returns - owning a chunk of a company or a chunk of government debt is quite tangible and doesn't require other people to turn a profit.

And if the younger people here pay any attention, they'd better hope the baby boomers and sandwich generations don't decide to liquidate their IRAs, stop feeding their 401-Ks, cash out and tread water, because that can trigger panic....then THEIR investments will lose value.

Please do. I have a long enough investment horizon that a panic won't particularly hurt my long-term goals, and I'll be happy to buy up all of your shares at cut-rate prices.

Young financial professionals are working on elliminating that potential by slowly manuevering the value of the funds, as we hum and haw, to the point they won't make a big dent when we finally decide to make the move.

Do explain what you mean, with sources please! I don't want to hear any more of this 'index fund' crap you were talking about in the last thread.

I'm not a betting person, but I'll bet there are hedge funds (with multiples and aggregates of cash that outweigh numbers of "retail investors") that are using some wild new quantum algorithm to move the markets just where they want them to go.....

Source? (And what, pray tell, is a 'quantum algorithm'?) Short term movements in markets can be determined by hedge funds and day traders and the like, which is where they make their money - very large volume and very small margins. Yet long-term returns are predicated on the fundamental performance of a company - their dividend yield, growth, market share, etc. Hedge funds and the like are a nice big machine to fleece stupid investors (both those who try frequent trades against very well managed funds, and those rich investors who give such ridiculously high management fees for very uncertain returns). Stick with a long-term investment strategy and none of this really matters. As Buffett says, the stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the active to the patient. I'm patient.

[GGT]

I get the impression that you haven't really spoken with anyone in their "retirement" years, wiggin. And I mean honestly, doubts and all.

I talk here very differently than I do/would with my children. That suggests that (perhaps) you haven't talked in depth (and I mean REALLY talked), about financial matters outside your family/parents/advisors. That's par for the course, I'm not criticizing at all. Just that there IS a different perspective that comes with time/age/information.

As an investor, I've already moved from novice (bold) to transition (still eager) to time-is-running-out (conservative). These days it's more about carrying funds into the future, ahead of or even with inflation, more than making huge profits. I'm in preservation mode because I'm older and have children.

My source for concern and "worry" is more global now than ever. I don't find much comfort in experts who predict "no contagion, no bubble". I've been through many recessions and business cycles, but the last couple of years have been unprecedented. What happens in the EU and the euro, what happens with China and our debt and our dollar......it matters.

And don't get me started with Buffet and Berkshire Hathoway, or his holdings in a ratings agency (or Goldman), or his congressional testimony.

I am patient and methodical. For the most part I've done quite well. It's the next generation and those that follow, who are being taught that the fundamentals and structures have changed. Buying value, and holding, doesn't work like it used to.

Brave New World, huh

[wiggin]

I get the impression that you haven't really spoken with anyone in their "retirement" years, wiggin. And I mean honestly, doubts and all.

I talk here very differently than I do/would with my children. That suggests that (perhaps) you haven't talked in depth (and I mean REALLY talked), about financial matters outside your family/parents/advisors. That's par for the course, I'm not criticizing at all. Just that there IS a different perspective that comes with time/age/information.].

Thanks for the condescension. And I have spoken quite a bit with the nearly retired and just retired.

As an investor, I've already moved from novice (bold) to transition (still eager) to time-is-running-out (conservative). These days it's more about carrying funds into the future, ahead of or even with inflation, more than making huge profits. I'm in preservation mode because I'm older and have children.

Okay, so you shift your asset allocation on the basis of your risk tolerance and investment horizon. Even CDs, money market accounts, and high quality bonds will get you capital preservation with minimal risk. I fail to see how this somehow contradicts anything I've said.

My source for concern and "worry" is more global now than ever. I don't find much comfort in experts who predict "no contagion, no bubble". I've been through many recessions and business cycles, but the last couple of years have been unprecedented. What happens in the EU and the euro, what happens with China and our debt and our dollar......it matters.

Sure, all of this stuff matters. It still doesn't undermine the basics of investing.

And don't get me started with Buffet and Berkshire Hathoway, or his holdings in a ratings agency (or Goldman), or his congressional testimony.

I wasn't particularly impressed with his lackluster defense of Moody's, either, but that doesn't mean that he's not an incredibly canny investor who has a good idea of how to invest.

I am patient and methodical. For the most part I've done quite well. It's the next generation and those that follow, who are being taught that the fundamentals and structures have changed. Buying value, and holding, doesn't work like it used to.

Proof? You've made this claim but not backed it up with any arguments for why fundamentals have changed.

[Loki]

I get the impression that you haven't really spoken with anyone in their "retirement" years, wiggin. And I mean honestly, doubts and all.

Another false appeal to authority. From now on, we should talk to Gentry before coming to any conclusions about topics related to retirement.

[GGT]

wiggin, dear. I have a new computer and keyboard, and I'm drinking mojitos. ie, I am most likely typing off-the-cuff. But still, it's a nice conversation. I didn't mean to sound condescending, not at all.

Germany bans naked short selling (it's already illegal in the USA, not to be confused with hedging by shorting), and we also temporarily banned short selling in '08, when the markets were wild. News sources make a headline, quote "experts", but still don't connect the dots.

Take that as you will; either crappy journalism, people with a short attention span, the inability to connect the dots or see context. It's harder than it sounds, since context is malleable, and markets are dynamic. That's why the next generations' perceptions and actions concerns me.

Try as I might, I can't really put myself in a 19 year old's mind, to figure out what they see, or how they see it. After all, we now have 22 year old college grads with thousands of dollars in loan debt who can't find a job.

Good debt vs Bad debt looks different in the Great Recession.

[GGT]

Another false appeal to authority. From now on, we should talk to Gentry before coming to any conclusions about topics related to retirement.

Fine by me! Gentry is just Dread's alt after he's been drinking mojitos.

[wiggin]

wiggin, dear. I have a new computer and keyboard, and I'm drinking mojitos. ie, I am most likely typing off-the-cuff. But still, it's a nice conversation. I didn't mean to sound condescending, not at all.

Fair enough.

Germany bans naked short selling (it's already illegal in the USA, not to be confused with hedging by shorting), and we also temporarily banned short selling in '08, when the markets were wild. News sources make a headline, quote "experts", but still don't connect the dots.

Take that as you will; either crappy journalism, people with a short attention span, the inability to connect the dots or see context. It's harder than it sounds, since context is malleable, and markets are dynamic. That's why the next generations' perceptions and actions concerns me.

Try as I might, I can't really put myself in a 19 year old's mind, to figure out what they see, or how they see it. After all, we now have 22 year old college grads with thousands of dollars in loan debt who can't find a job.

Good debt vs Bad debt looks different in the Great Recession.

Uhm... what's your point?

[GGT]

Fair enough.

Uhm... what's your point?

You asked for "source" more than once. You didn't expect me to give you one or two academic citations, did you? If so, would that have been Political Economics, or Political Science sources?

Governments have fiscal and monetary policies. So do families. In my nuclear family unit, I'm the Secretary of Treasury and the Chair of the Central Bank. It's up to me to make those functions work in tandem, alongside other agencies, for the benefit of my children. Even when they appear to have conflicting and confusing goals.

If you catch my drift.

[wiggin]

That's the point, I *don't* catch your drift. I was asking for some sort of substantiation about the claims that the fundamental rules of investing have changed, and you talked about naked short selling. Where's the connection? What are you trying to say?

This actually happens a lot to me when I read your posts. I feel like maybe there's a point in there somewhere, but you never come out and say it. Seriously - I don't know if this is a problem with my inferences or with your clarity in putting across what you want to say.

[Wraith]

Sometimes I wonder if GGT is actually a chinese room.

[GGT]

That's the point, I *don't* catch your drift. I was asking for some sort of substantiation about the claims that the fundamental rules of investing have changed, and you talked about naked short selling. Where's the connection? What are you trying to say?

This actually happens a lot to me when I read your posts. I feel like maybe there's a point in there somewhere, but you never come out and say it. Seriously - I don't know if this is a problem with my inferences or with your clarity in putting across what you want to say.

No worries wiggin, it's most likely my lack of clarity.

If you want some substantiation that the fundamentals of investing HAS changed....if you don't take this thread on its face value, or replies from "older" posters like Choobie or Being or me.......then I don't know what to say to "prove" that the investing world has, indeed, changed.

Generations before us could make these ventures much easier, when it was simpler. (Railways meant transportation of goods, not sweat labor exploitation or environmental degradation)

Maybe you could look at the flight to safety in Treasurys, or municipal bonds, and then read about the anxiety in those investments when counties/townships/states are bankrupt. It's not just maths, it's about debt and abilities to pay. And now, all sorts of justices and policies come into play

Do you think (for example) BP has enough revenue and insurance to pay their forward liabilities, and pay shareholder dividends, in the current environment?

Are they accountable to their shareholders, or to the Gulf coast, or both? Aren't they connected? Yes, but what is trump?

[Loki]

And what's the cost of strawberries in Shanghai?

[GGT]

Sometimes I wonder if GGT is actually a chinese room.

You are Unclear, with a hooded ghost avatar and creepy eyes. And you don't post much.

What are you were saying......?

[Wraith]

Why don't you like my avatar?

[littlelolligagged]

I don't like it because the eyes keep changing.


They do.

Really.

[GGT]

Why don't you like my avatar?

I didn't say it was disliked. I actually like hoods, but the eyes are....creepy.

[GGT]

And what's the cost of strawberries in Shanghai?

Loki, do you even know the price of corn in your corn fields? Let alone the differences between seed or feed corn, or edible corn?

[GGT]

Choobie, I love ya. Reallly. Good thread, nice start. Might be the next mega thread like When You Die. But this place doesn't appreciate mega threads. Seems like ADD is the norm. People get bored easily and fast, it seems.

Best way to nix ongoing discussion is to pull out one thing and demand a citation. Then it turns into an academic exercise, which is rather besides the point. Or ia it part of the point?

Very irriitating (at least to me and perhaps to you?) to have whippersnapppers just repeat the same old dogma, as if we haven't heard it before. We heard, we understood, we bought....we believed. We did all the "right things".

But it's backfired, and it's confusing. Now, any time I hear advice, "trust but verify" is harder than it used to be.

[EyeKhan]

You are Unclear, with a hooded ghost avatar and creepy eyes. And you don't post much.

What are you were saying......?

#1. He's always here. Watching.

#2. DW's avatar has become a problem in two ways. First, its what it is, meaning its cartoonish, kind of juvenile and silly, in a way that doesn't match his established character, and all that. Second, on the other hand, its been him forever and he has no history of change, so he's stuck with it. Or everyone would forget who he is.

Why don't you like my avatar?

She

I don't like it because the eyes keep changing.


They do.

Really.

And this is the crux of it all. Everything keeps changing dammit. Its fucking frustrating.

I didn't say it was disliked. I actually like hoods, but the eyes are....creepy.

Reminds me a bit of the circumcision thread.

As I said, DW's hood, while not particularly fancy or likable, is now DW. He/she can't (reasonably) change it. You're getting that way with your luscious blue lips drinking the flat mountain dew.



WIG'N:

All content aside, it is your certainty that you ought to suspect. Any time I've been that sure of anything I've later been hit in the face with a wet fish. (Tilapia, if you're wondering)

Choobie, I love ya. Reallly. Good thread, nice start. Might be the next mega thread like When You Die. But this place doesn't appreciate mega threads. Seems like ADD is the norm. People get bored easily and fast, it seems.

I don't like mega-threads anymore to tell the truth. Not like WYD - its a topic black hole.

Best way to nix ongoing discussion is to pull out one thing and demand a citation. Then it turns into an academic exercise, which is rather besides the point. Or ia it part of the point?

I think if someone's making a key argument based on some claim or another, they ought to be able to back it up. Its not unreasonable. Evidence is important. Yeah, I think it can kill casual conversation but it has its place.

Very irriitating (at least to me and perhaps to you?) to have whippersnapppers just repeat the same old dogma, as if we haven't heard it before. We heard, we understood, we bought....we believed. We did all the "right things".

There is something to be said for perspective, no doubt. Seems like you get imprinted with a concept of the way the world works in your formative years and then, a few decades later, when that's crumbled to dust, you have a great big belly full of Jaded Bile.

But it's backfired, and it's confusing. Now, any time I hear advice, "trust but verify" is harder than it used to be.

There's a couple things at work here. First, the older you get, the less tolerant of change you become. But the world just keeps changing faster and faster, meaning the conflict between your simple human nature and the monstrosity of our amorphous, info-culture grows steadily as you age. Its like buying a new blueray player, muddling through the poorly written and gap-filled instruction book, setting it all up the right way, but every few weeks the damn thing gets a firmware upgrade and, with little warning, it works differently. That sucks.

Compounding the problems of change, you have a whole group of influential people who believe that greater complexity (aka "choice") on the individual level, and greater responsibility given to the individual to deal with this greater complexity (aka you're on your own) is somehow better than simplicity. So, we don't get a simple, single payer health plan that covers all our evolving needs over a lifetime; instead we get a huge field of competing insurance "products" that may or may not be what we need, may or may not be a rip off, with all of them claiming to be just what the doctor ordered, but it won't be until we actually need them that we find out we made the wrong choice. And by then, of course, its too late. And when we cry foul, nobody give's a shit, they just say hey, buyer beware. You should have researched your choices better.

Same thing with a 401k retirement plan. Oh, you had to sell your 401k investments after they lost 65% of their value because you lost your job and you had to make mortgage payments on the house that is now worth less than you owe so you and your family wouldn't be evicted? Gee, that sucks. Didn't you follow the Sage Advice? Oh, that's right, you did. Oh well, things change, hope you kept enough money aside to pay the tax penalty... And now you're 65 years old working at fucking Burger King getting treated like a fucking retard by the pimply faced highschool kids and their trailer trash manager, waiting for your kids to put you in a fucking nursing home when you can't wipe your own ass anymore where hopefully you'll only get neglected and forgotten and not abused by some sadistic scum bag. Ah, the golden years. Your reward after a life time of hard work.

News Flash: Greater complexity isn't better in life-critical things that we don't have time to become buyer-beware subject matter experts. Its fine for stereos and automobiles, not with health insurance and retirement savings.