http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/wo...1irish.html?hp Looks like Ireland lost 120k people this year to emigration. Ouch.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/wo...1irish.html?hp Looks like Ireland lost 120k people this year to emigration. Ouch.
Hope is the denial of reality
They're going back to the old pattern basically. I guess it's fair to say now that the model of a poor country making itself rich by horrendously inflating the prices of real estate does not create real wealth. Who remembers the time that Japan's real estate was worth more than all of the USA's. Sometimes you only have to apply common sense to see what's sustainable and what's not.
But let's not forget most of the people leaving were from other EU states who weren't planning on living out their lives in Ireland in the first place.
Congratulations America
Well, looks like they're going to apply formally now for a bail out. I think Trichet hinting at raising the interest rate made it clear to them they were in no position to play hard to get.
And here we have the contribution from the UK : 7 billion in their mickey mouse currencyThis should be good for some spit and blood in the usual suspect corners of English society
Ah here we have it; in the Guardian today from the Adam Smith thinktank
Really funny, British government doing it's best to call it a bilateral loan and it's own MP calling it 'paying ..the European Union'. One has to wonder how this chap thinks the UK could afford Ireland leaving the EMU. I mean, collapsed currency, no access to the capitalmarkets for the time being, mortgage holders really not being able to pay their monthly obligations. It should make for a nice big hole in the books of some big banks on the other side of the waterAsking the British taxpayer to cough up £7bn shows just how audacious the European Union has become in its desperation to keep the eurozone project afloat. The UK successfully avoided entering the eurozone. Ireland was not so lucky, but it entered in full knowledge of the risks involved.
"Bailing out Ireland now would undo much of the benefits that Britain has yielded from keeping the pound and would make a mockery of the spending cuts announced by the coalition last month. In the end, Ireland will have to choose its own path out of this crisis. But the British taxpayer should not be held responsible for past mistakes by Irish politicians."
Eurosceptic Tories were also angered by Britain's participation in the bailout. The Conservative MP for Clacton, Douglas Carswell, told the BBC: "We shouldn't be paying to help keep Ireland in the euro. If we are going to pay to solve this crisis we should be helping to pay Ireland to quit the euro. Ireland's misery is only going to end when it has its own currency again. At a time of austerity, again we are paying vast sums to the European Union."
Congratulations America
We "export" more to Ireland alone than all of Brazil, Russia, India and China combined. I wonder how much support our DfID gives to those nations, probably much more than a loan of £7bn. As I said above, my own (American-based multinational) company virtually regards Ireland as part of the UK (just adjusting for their mickey mouse currencyOriginally Posted by Hazir
And here we have the contribution from the UK : 7 billion in their mickey mouse currency).
It would be absolutely insane of the UK not to prop up Ireland with or without the euro. You know very little about UK politics if you think Douglas Carswell (prominent member of the Tombstone Group) represents Conservative opinion. But even still, even he believes we should support Ireland, just help them out of the euro. I've not heard a single person oppose supporting Ireland full stop.
Besides the UK, in large part thanks to our independent currency and exchange rate, is in a relatively very healthy state now compared to other nations. Scary thing is just before the crisis hit Gordon Brown chickened out of an election he could have won and 5 more years of Gordon would have killed the UK with or without sterling. So in once sense "There but for the grace of Gord go I" - but thanks to the survival of sterling and thanks to the new government our interest rates are very low now. We can borrow £7bn (we don't have it so obviously we'll need to borrow), loan it to Ireland (at lower rates than they in the disastrous euro could borrow it) and make a profit on the differential. Simples
Last edited by RandBlade; 11-22-2010 at 11:30 AM.
That's not really a strong argument, they probably also think that Sweden and Switzerland are the same place.As I said above, my own (American-based multinational) company virtually regards Ireland as part of the UK (just adjusting for their mickey mouse currency
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
LOL, fair point
Anyway, after Ireland who'll be next? The eurocrisis was supposed to be confined with Greece, now Ireland ... Portugal or Spain next to go? There is every possibility they will be the next to go and don't expect Britain to be so fast to get the chequebook out if its Portugal who hits the wall. Ireland is so integrated with our own economy that it is one of our most important trading partners, bigger than those 4 big nations combined. Little Ireland is more important to us than any other nation.
Supporting Ireland even though we weren't obliged to made sense from a purely selfish perspective. Besides the fact that Ireland's economy is still fundamentally relatively strong so we should have every confidence to regain our money (with interest), Portugal and Spain neither is true.
Last edited by RandBlade; 11-22-2010 at 12:14 PM.
As long as it isn't Italy or Spain from the GIPSI's erm... PIIGS things will turn out well. But if one of those two go bust, good luck for us all!
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
LOL, I like GIPSI as an acronym. I don't think Italy is likely though its possible, I think Portugal will be next but Spain is more likely than Italy. Even though longer-term I have fundamental concerns about Italy.
The funny thing is how silent Hazir is about the failure of his beloved euro and the collapse of two European economies, instead trying to make hay with comments from a Conservative. Had it been the UK that had collapsed I suspect we'd have had a very different response from Hazir.
Well we also had Island which wasn't an Euro/EU country.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
Iceland, indeed. In fact I seem to recall a bit of gloating from a certain someone about Iceland's demise and an insistance that it wouldn't have happened to a euro-member. Now it's happened to two. Odd that.
Yeah, I'm starting to think Hazir might be a bit weird about this whole Euro issue. I don't think it's normal to get that emotionally invested in a currency.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Why do you view intra-EU politics as a zero-sum game?
Hope is the denial of reality
Indeed. I want a healthy Ireland because a healthy Ireland is better for a healthy UK. Every man, woman and child in Eire spends £3600 pa on British goods, an impressive figure I thought. I'm on the mindset that if Ireland loses, so will we all as they won't have money to trade with us.Why do you view intra-EU politics as a zero-sum game?
However Hazir is off the mindset that whatever Ireland loses someone else will gain instead somehow. Typical left-winger really, its always the lefties who can't comprehend that economics is not zero-sum.
You mean to say you think even the idea of the demise of the euro shouldn't scare everybody in Europe regardless of used currency utterly shitless? Remove the euro from the equation today and see pretty much every bank in the continent go bust, with at least a half dozen of sovereign states for extra excitement, including the one where you live by the way. If your banking industry goes, your country's economy is down the pipes deeper than where Ireland is right now.
Even your Conservative dominated government seems to have gotten the message, with a €9bn promise to prop up Ireland so that a failure of the common currency no longer needs to be taken into account.
I don't, not at all, but just like all can get better from going in the right direction, all can actually lose by going in the wrong direction. That direction would be the direction the eurosceptics like Randblade are pulling Europe in; the direction of narrow nationalism. Thank God even his own PM understands better that that idiocy is harmful to us all.Why do you view intra-EU politics as a zero-sum game?
Congratulations America
What is Cameron doing that I oppose. I don't recall criticising him to you ...
When one reads your statements it seems that Island actually should have never happened. It seems the truth is somewhere in the middle.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
if the euro goes Britain is going with it regardless of it being a member or not.
Anyways, I still maintain that by the end of this crisis we'll have either no EU or a real EU-wide economic policy
Since failure of the euro and EU is not an option -and as such will not be allowed by anyone with any brains (not even the UK)- there's only one option left
But first there'll be some more crisis
This is the way I see things too. And I also see the moment coming where the UK simply will not be allowed to stay out any longer. Regardless of national considerations.
Congratulations America
Yes, but you've had this attitude since well before the current crisis. It's not normal.
Hazir's attitude to the British in a nutshell, gentlemen. When we don't do what he wants, bitter anger and resentment. When we do, sneering and gloating that we were 'forced' to do so by some manifest destiny of European federalism. You're a fucked up dude, you know that?Even your Conservative dominated government seems to have gotten the message, with a €9bn promise to prop up Ireland so that a failure of the common currency no longer needs to be taken into account.
I think there may be some merit in what you say about the us ending up in the Euro. I don't know for sure. Time will tell.
What I do know, though, is that if the UK were in the Euro you'd be incandescent when the UK dares, as it inevitably would, to exercise the influence it would have as one of the top 3 Euro economies on EMU policy. Your attitude to EU integration stinks. Prospective, from the top, with vindictive punishments for nation's that step out of line (read: mostly, Britain) then gloating afterwards. Thank god you weren't in charge of it, otherwise it would have failed years ago.
It is ironic that Hazir's attitude towards the UK is the very thing all the most rabid euro-skeptic tabloids like to let their readers think prevails in Brussels. He's become a Euroskeptic caricature.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
When Rand said failure, he didn't mean an end to the euro. He meant that it failed to prevent an economic collapse in a participating country *actually, he thinks it caused the collapse* A failure by the euro system, not the total failure of the euro system.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40315265
Why did Eurozone officials push so hard for a bailout of Ireland?
CNBC.com
On the face of it, it was a very strange dynamic. Irish government officials had been insisting that they were well-funded through at least the first quarter of next year. Without any current need to roll debt, Ireland could afford to be indifferent as its spreads blew out. The yields on Irish debt may have blown out, but it wasn’t costing Ireland anything.
The pressure for a bailout of Ireland did not come from Ireland itself—it came from Eurozone officials. If anything, Irish Finance Minister Brian Lehnihan’s announcement over the weekend that Ireland would seek a bailout was a concession to its European Union friends.
So why would the Eurocrats demand a bailout of Ireland when Ireland insisted it didn’t need one?
The first reason is that much of Ireland’s debt—both its sovereign debt and the debt of its banks—is held by many of Europe’s largest financial institutions. The continued downward pressure on the market value of Ireland’s debt was causing balance sheet issues for these banks. Many of Europe’s banks had written credit default swaps on Irish debt, which was draining cash. Finally, the banks were finding it increasingly expensive to borrow against Irish debt—that is, other banks would not lend money in exchange for Irish debt as collateral, except at steep discounts—creating the potential for a credit crunch.
RELATED LINKS
Ireland May Get Aid in Jan.; Portugal Safe: EU Officials
Portugal Prime Minister Says No Need for Bailout
It’s likely that the European Central Bank has large exposures to Irish debt. The ECB has been quietly buying European sovereign debt since May—although it won’t say exactly what debt it is buying. The purpose of the purchases is to stabilize the debt market and provide liquidity to the economies of Europe. The stabilization effort, at least, appears to have failed. Further purchases of sovereign debt in a renewed stabilization effort threaten to become inflationary—essentially the ECB monetizing sovereign debt in Europe. An official bailout may be an attempt to ward off monetization and inflation.
Which means that this is not so much a bailout of Ireland—it’s a bailout of Ireland’s counterparties. That is to say, it’s a bit like Europe’s version of AIG: a backdoor bailout of invisible financial players who failed to manage their exposure to a shaky borrower.
This is going to become an explosive political issue in Ireland—one that may threaten the Irish government’s ability to keep the austerity promises it is likely to make in exchange for the bailout. After all, if the real purpose of the bailout is not so much to rescue Ireland but to rescue the Eurozone financial institutions holding Irish debt, there may be good reason for the Irish people to reject the terms.
Already there are calls for a new election from within Ireland’s ruling party. In Dublin, someone hung a sign over the weekend saying “Traitors” over the official “Department of the Taoiseach (Prime Minister)” sign.
This thing is far from over.
Yeah right. Nobody now claims that euromembership would be a good idea, even the Lib-Dems before the election (before they formed government with the Conservatives) finally ruled it out "for the next Parliament", Hague's policy of a few years back. It is already well-established that Britain will not join the euro without a referendum, and while Blair at the peak of his popularity may have been able to win a referendum (though he ultimately decided he'd fail), any referendum now would be guaranteed to fail.
I don't think the eurozone will break up, and if it does I think it will be orderly, but that is more likely than the UK joining it now. Most likely result is of course simply the status quo.
100% correct
Not normal why exactly? Because I am not going to give in at all to the psuedo arguments of eurosceptics? Randblade is by far the most cynical eurosceptic I knowNow, let me tell you something; every now and then you feel you have to bud in when I am cutting down the arguments of somebody who I consider to be on the other extreme side of the debate (Randblade) . And without fail you take everything I say about his stupid ideas personal. That gives me two choices about the way I can see you. You are either an idiot who doesn't understand that no matter what you will not win over an opponent so you may just as well cut him off at the knees or you are indeed somebody who holds the same ideas.Hazir's attitude to the British in a nutshell, gentlemen. When we don't do what he wants, bitter anger and resentment. When we do, sneering and gloating that we were 'forced' to do so by some manifest destiny of European federalism. You're a fucked up dude, you know that?
Mind telling us which of the two it is? If you're going for the third option of being the voice of reason, then maybe you should consider toning down your contributions as you aren't addressed to start with.
Let me start with your last sentence. I love to say all those things that drive eurosceptics up the wall. One of the reasons for that is that I don't feel they are called out on the idiocy of their ideas often enough. They are a bunch of Neanderthals that couldn't find their own asses without a map.
I think there may be some merit in what you say about the us ending up in the Euro. I don't know for sure. Time will tell.
What I do know, though, is that if the UK were in the Euro you'd be incandescent when the UK dares, as it inevitably would, to exercise the influence it would have as one of the top 3 Euro economies on EMU policy. Your attitude to EU integration stinks. Prospective, from the top, with vindictive punishments for nation's that step out of line (read: mostly, Britain) then gloating afterwards. Thank god you weren't in charge of it, otherwise it would have failed years ago.
It is ironic that Hazir's attitude towards the UK is the very thing all the most rabid euro-skeptic tabloids like to let their readers think prevails in Brussels. He's become a Euroskeptic caricature.
As for the UK in general; your opinion isn't even in the same universe as what I think about the UK. The only reason why I want to be rid of the UK as a member of the EU is that the UK consistently takes upon itself the role of brake on whatever process is initiated. Probably because they are kowtowing to the worst eurosceptics permanently. The effect of that is that the rest of the EU has to regulate around the UK for pretty much everything which usually results in the shoddy arrangements we have. And really, it's funny that I get blamed for sounding anti-UK with UK governments communicating about their relationship with the EU in terms of victory as if a new hundred year war is being fought on the fields of Flanders.
Congratulations America
Even if that were true (about him meaning that) ; it's nonsense. The examples of Iceland (EER member) on one side and Greece and Ireland (EU/EMU member) shows that the statement is not true. One country was not bailed out, two others were.
We could fill another topic on the question if it was wise to bail these countries out, but the truth here is that they were bailed out.
Congratulations America
None of that is really news. It is exactly this why I am having so much fun over the Brits being forced to bail out a country in the eurozone. The interdependency only gets worse as we climb up the ladder of PIIGS. By the time we're talking Spain the EU as a whole is in trouble, but Germany, France and the UK are going to be hardest hit. Of those three the UK is the least likely to come out of that in a more or less reasonable state.
To me all this shows is that all the nonsense about 'national sovereignty' we had to hear during the many many years of debate about a Constitution was exactly that; nonsense that can be swept aside overnight.
Congratulations America
No. You have the exact same attitude toward everyone, all the time, when the EU comes up. I've observed before that no matter who you're talking to, you're actually talking to your mental image of Rand. As Steely said, that's not normal.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
As you like, I'm affraid I could care less than what you opine on the matter.
Congratulations America
It is an improvement, I suppose. It used to be that the topic didn't matter. Whether we were talking about Chinese economic policy, criminal justice, our favorite foods, or pets, all your posts were really written at Rand.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
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