N. Korea will be threat to US in 5 years

[Mr. Lane]

There will remain a stalemate on the Korean Peninsula just as long as none of the involved nations has any interests in going to war. Logically I can't see anyone benefiting from it. North Korea knows this, which is why they are able to get away with occasional acts of aggression towards the South. They don't actually fear major reprisals from the South or the US for their small actions because they know they wont come.

North Korea's greatest threat is if its brainwash hold on its people cracks and they begin to learn more of the outside world and how much they as a people are being screwed over by their illusions of the greatness of the Dear Leader. Most dictatorships/monarchies in modern history have been destroyed not by outside powers, but from within (sometimes peacefully, sometimes not). They know this.

Don't worry too much about ICBM ratios or MIRV capability, thats silly talk. Any nuke attack on the US and North Korea would basically be exterminating themselves (so people of America, chill out for once and throw a party). I wonder how China would respond to such close US nuclear action though...

[Omega]

There will remain a stalemate on the Korean Peninsula just as long as none of the involved nations has any interests in going to war. Logically I can't see anyone benefiting from it. North Korea knows this, which is why they are able to get away with occasional acts of aggression towards the South. They don't actually fear major reprisals from the South or the US for their small actions because they know they wont come.

Pre-WWII Germany? We might be sailing down a, once calm now, tumultuous river riddled with jagged protruding rocks if we do not penalize their belligerent behavior.

[Mr. Lane]

Pre-WWII Germany? We might be sailing down a, once calm now, tumultuous river riddled with jagged protruding rocks if we do not penalize their belligerent behavior.

The situation is different. Hitler honestly believed in the aryan race and was so full of bitter hatred that he wanted the world to be in his vision. Also, he built up the Nazi forces quickly and with purpose. The likes of Churchill knew it was happening even if the cabinet at Westminster ignored him.

The North Koreans have been sitting around not doing much for decades, and the Dear Leader is an old man. If he has aspirations of even provincial domination he would have done it long ago.

No, their deal is preservation of the dynasty and keeping the powerful rulers at the top powerful (though they have to watch their backs...I believe the Dear Leader can basically bump off anyone he chooses!).

Having said all of this, whilst I commend and understand their restraint, I do believe that the South was too timid in its response. Citizens and military personal died in the recent attacks and the South should let North Korea know that they cannot go around using their neighbors as pawns in their pathetic internal political games.

[rumrunner]

The threat of attack from N. Korea is minimal compared to the threat of them selling nuclear tech/material to extremist groups. If they become a supplier of 'dirty-bombs' to terrorists and other rogue nations it would be a far worse scenario than a limited nuclear exchange on the peninsula. Even if they only supply delivery systems, which they seem to enjoy demonstrating openly from time to time, the results could be devastating.

[Mr. Lane]

The threat of attack from N. Korea is minimal compared to the threat of them selling nuclear tech/material to extremist groups. If they become a supplier of 'dirty-bombs' to terrorists and other rogue nations it would be a far worse scenario than a limited nuclear exchange on the peninsula. Even if they only supply delivery systems, which they seem to enjoy demonstrating openly from time to time, the results could be devastating.

Dirty bombs are weapons of fear that do almost no damage other than from the initial conventional explosion. There is very little radiological threat from them unless they are packaged with unrealistic amounts of radioactive material. From Wiki:

"Since a dirty bomb is unlikely to cause many deaths, many do not consider this to be a weapon of mass destruction.[3] Its purpose would presumably be to create psychological, not physical, harm through ignorance, mass panic, and terror. For this reason dirty bombs are sometimes called "weapons of mass disruption". Additionally, containment and decontamination of thousands of victims, as well as decontamination of the affected area might require considerable time and expense, rendering areas partly unusable and causing economic damage."

A "limited nuclear exchange" would be infinitely worse.

As for delivery systems, Russia still goes around "assisting" other nations with their Scud-derived missiles for cash.


There is rumor and what not that North Korea has sold weapons technology or "assisted" other nations with their weapons programs, but very little has been substantiated. None of the technologies that have actually crossed borders have been nuclear related. Most of the weapons trade has been either small arms and missiles or long range tactical missiles like Scud derivatives. Usually these have gone to, or rumored to have gone to African nations in small numbers. Its not like Russia doesn't already do the same...

[agamemnus]

or long range tactical missiles like Scud derivatives.

What makes you think smaller missiles can't hold nukes?

[Omega]

What makes you think smaller missiles can't hold nukes?

I thought he implied their devastating effects were simply not as calamitous as the jumbo tactical nuke's ramifications, or am I being stupid? either way, he seems to know what he's talking about; i'd cut him some slack, maybe he mistyped or didn't elaborate enough.

[Mr. Lane]

What makes you think smaller missiles can't hold nukes?

Indeed they can. But long range missiles aren't going to be used by terrorists to attack US soil: They don't have intercontinental range and are too complex to operate and maintain anyway. Terrorists are more likely to smuggle in a bomb in a cargo hold of a ship for example.

As for selling such technology to other nations: assuming other nations work out how to build a bomb and fit the warhead to the missiles they still can't attack the US due to the range. Missiles like the Scud are perfect for attacking Israel from Iran, however...

I really don't believe any states would be stupid enough to go down the nuclear path against the US and no small power like North Korea would do it against any of the US's friends either. In fact as a believer in the MAD doctrine I doubt two nuclear armed states would ever go to nuclear war with one another: any dispute would probably be resolved conventionally. Terrorists are another issue though...

[wiggin]

As for selling such technology to other nations: assuming other nations work out how to build a bomb and fit the warhead to the missiles they still can't attack the US due to the range. Missiles like the Scud are perfect for attacking Israel from Iran, however...

Not really, Scud designs are pretty short range and wouldn't allow Iran to reach Israel with most of the variants. They'd need medium-range ballistic missiles to do that.

[rumrunner]

Dirty bombs are weapons of fear that do almost no damage other than from the initial conventional explosion. There is very little radiological threat from them unless they are packaged with unrealistic amounts of radioactive material. From Wiki:

"Since a dirty bomb is unlikely to cause many deaths, many do not consider this to be a weapon of mass destruction.[3] Its purpose would presumably be to create psychological, not physical, harm through ignorance, mass panic, and terror. For this reason dirty bombs are sometimes called "weapons of mass disruption". Additionally, containment and decontamination of thousands of victims, as well as decontamination of the affected area might require considerable time and expense, rendering areas partly unusable and causing economic damage."

A "limited nuclear exchange" would be infinitely worse.

As for delivery systems, Russia still goes around "assisting" other nations with their Scud-derived missiles for cash.


There is rumor and what not that North Korea has sold weapons technology or "assisted" other nations with their weapons programs, but very little has been substantiated. None of the technologies that have actually crossed borders have been nuclear related. Most of the weapons trade has been either small arms and missiles or long range tactical missiles like Scud derivatives. Usually these have gone to, or rumored to have gone to African nations in small numbers. Its not like Russia doesn't already do the same...

I know what a dirty bomb is, and your right on the point that they don't do much damage one won't anyway. But fear on the other hand, is a very powerful weapon. Uncertainty,as to how many of these devices there are, causes a lot of fear. Just look at all the crap that has come pass due to the events of 9/11, and imagine what would happen if the public learned that an extremist group had just detonated a dirty bomb.
The Russians are not hiding anything, N. Korea might be, and definitely would hide any deals with terrorists. Legitimate but unfriendly (towards the west)governments won't care what we or anybody else thinks.
The current tech level of the NK regime was not fully known until recently. Inspectors were shocked and terrified at what they learned when seeing the new reactor and refining abilities they have. With Kim Jung Il soon to be out (he can't live forever) and his heir a complete unknown as to what he'll do and how he'll react to any given situation. Who knows, he might open up and be completely amicable to peace with the world. He might, however, be as mad as his father, or worse. More than likely, not much will change with the Korean situation. The real damage they do is in destabilizing the region and the way the world must deal with them, a situation the Chinese seem to be losing control of IMO.