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Thread: Worlds Abundant

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    I don't care what future lewkowski thinks, I want to know what you think. Should we eternally avoid something like terraforming mars, just take it off the table completely, in case we destroy some non-earth flatworm fossils? I think the answer's fairly easy when there's complex life currently around someplace, but what about extremely primitive life, or just fossils?
    Since I'm more about maximizing human knowledge, capabilities, and technology rather than number of humans, I would like to take a wait and see approach. For instance, in your last reply, we don't start terraforming Mars until we've combed over the place and made sure that its essentially always been a lifeless rock, and we're learned as much as possible about its history as a planet. If it has bacteria, assess the likelyhood that they'll evolve into more complex things before proceeding, and if there are already more complex things, we skip over it entirely, other than research purposes.
    . . .

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by Illusions View Post
    Since I'm more about maximizing human knowledge, capabilities, and technology rather than number of humans, I would like to take a wait and see approach. For instance, in your last reply, we don't start terraforming Mars until we've combed over the place and made sure that its essentially always been a lifeless rock, and we're learned as much as possible about its history as a planet. If it has bacteria, assess the likelyhood that they'll evolve into more complex things before proceeding, and if there are already more complex things, we skip over it entirely, other than research purposes.
    That's essentially saying that we shouldn't start for another few centuries. We haven't even finished figuring out the history of Earth as a planet, it'll be several hundreds of years before we could possibly meet a standard, and there'll always be one more thing to look at.

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    That's essentially saying that we shouldn't start for another few centuries. We haven't even finished figuring out the history of Earth as a planet, it'll be several hundreds of years before we could possibly meet a standard, and there'll always be one more thing to look at.
    And in my scenario we're terraforming Mars because we as a species want to demonstrate that we are capable of such a feat and not because we need space for more humans because Earth is overflowing with them; so whether we do it now or centuries from now doesn't matter as time isn't a pressing issue.
    . . .

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Illusions View Post
    And in my scenario we're terraforming Mars because we as a species want to demonstrate that we are capable of such a feat and not because we need space for more humans because Earth is overflowing with them; so whether we do it now or centuries from now doesn't matter as time isn't a pressing issue.
    My reason for doing it is it makes a good lifeboat, and there's always a chance that we might need the habitable space several centuries from now. Because it takes so long to actually do something like this, I'm not comfortable with saying we shouldn't just because we probably won't need it within the next 50 years, or to possibly preserve potential bacterial fossils which may or may not exist.

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    For Mars, I think we should start terraforming it now. One suggested method for kicking off the process is actually relatively cheap - it involves bombing it with certain terran extremophiles, it'll just take an insanely long time. Estimates I saw go about three centuries. More expensive options, like dropping Ceres onto Mars, or adding orbital mirrors, will help speed things up and increase the habitability in the end. But if this will naturally be hugely destructive to any native life, if there's any there. It'll also mean that if there are any new biological discoveries we make it'll be tough to tell whether it's native, or we put it there.
    Have you read Kim Stanley Robinson's Red, Green, Blue Mars series? There was an argument about when to start terraforming and some enthusiastic souls went ahead and seeded the place with living things. Then later, in a deep aquifer, they found living things but nobody knew if the life they found was native or not, thus blowing what could have been an extremely important discovery. I believe taking the time to dig deep and be sure there is or is not life there first is priority. That's a pretty important question for a number of reasons. There's no hurry right now to start terraforming Mars - hell, there's not much of a will to go there at all, even with robots these days.
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  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by Illusions View Post
    And in my scenario we're terraforming Mars because we as a species want to demonstrate that we are capable of such a feat and not because we need space for more humans because Earth is overflowing with them; so whether we do it now or centuries from now doesn't matter as time isn't a pressing issue.
    You want to do it just to show we can? That just shy of not having a purpose at all.
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  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by EyeKhan View Post
    You want to do it just to show we can? That just shy of not having a purpose at all.
    1. By the time we could seriously consider terraforming Mars, we will have hopefully solved our overpopulation problem here on Earth. We already have near 7 Billion people right now, and we can only educate, feed, cloth, shelter, etc. a very small percentage at what could be considered a decent level. If we need to terraform a planet to fix this we have failed horrendously as a species.

    2. Nothing we do has purpose except that which we give it. Turning an uninhabitable world into a habitable one to demonstrate our abilities as a species seems like a grand enough purpose in and of itself, and would be a progression of our already existing abilities to alter environments here on Earth.
    . . .

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Illusions View Post
    1. By the time we could seriously consider terraforming Mars, we will have hopefully solved our overpopulation problem here on Earth. We already have near 7 Billion people right now, and we can only educate, feed, cloth, shelter, etc. a very small percentage at what could be considered a decent level. If we need to terraform a planet to fix this we have failed horrendously as a species.
    We can seriously consider it now. Really. The cost for kicking off a biologically-driven process isn't that high (not doing things like asteroid or comet drops, which would help end habitability but aren't strictly needed). It's about the same as sending rovers to Mars. We've already got and use all the technology required too - it isn't very different from sending rovers to mars. There's also already been a substantial amount of research done on which biologicals to send and in what order and time frame to produce optimal terraforming results. There are other things we can do later (solar mirrors, comet drops), but we've got a few hundred years while waiting for the process to go anyways to get around to doing those things.

    2. Nothing we do has purpose except that which we give it. Turning an uninhabitable world into a habitable one to demonstrate our abilities as a species seems like a grand enough purpose in and of itself, and would be a progression of our already existing abilities to alter environments here on Earth.
    I disagree. We shouldn't be doing things unless we derive some gain from it. The gain doesn't need to be tangible or direct, but I don't think prestige or ego-boosting is a good enough reason, unless we find ourselves with nigh-infinite resources and energy. Otherwise our efforts would be better directed towards things that do gain us benefits.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    We can seriously consider it now.
    We haven't seriously explored Mars, thus we cannot seriously consider terraforming it.

    I disagree. We shouldn't be doing things unless we derive some gain from it. The gain doesn't need to be tangible or direct, but I don't think prestige or ego-boosting is a good enough reason, unless we find ourselves with nigh-infinite resources and energy. Otherwise our efforts would be better directed towards things that do gain us benefits.
    We've researched and developed a bunch of stuff in the past that has no immediate or direct benefit to humanity, other than to show that we are capable of doing it. Particle colliders have no immediate or direct benefit to humanity other than creating knowledge, or that we can in fact perform some experiment. Its not like they create parents for orphans, or feed the hungry, or create world peace, yet we funnel money into them. Should we stop the particle colliders too?
    . . .

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by Illusions View Post
    1. By the time we could seriously consider terraforming Mars, we will have hopefully solved our overpopulation problem here on Earth. We already have near 7 Billion people right now, and we can only educate, feed, cloth, shelter, etc. a very small percentage at what could be considered a decent level. If we need to terraform a planet to fix this we have failed horrendously as a species.
    It is pretty clear we will not be solving our population problem in any organized, planned way. But problems like that have a way of solving themselves and I totally agree that will happen regardless of what action humanity takes with regard to Mars. No foreseeable technology would allow Mars to be a safety valve for population anyway, even if it were fully terraformed today.

    2. Nothing we do has purpose except that which we give it. Turning an uninhabitable world into a habitable one to demonstrate our abilities as a species seems like a grand enough purpose in and of itself, and would be a progression of our already existing abilities to alter environments here on Earth.
    Demonstrate our abilities to who? Or what? Why not terraform Mars for the purpose of putting the eggs of life in two baskets instead of one? The closest thing life has to a purpose is to continue to survive over time. Infecting a second world with any sort of living thing would arguably the biggest step in that direction since sexual reproduction. Spreading to another star system would be even better.
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  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Otherwise our efforts would be better directed towards things that do gain us benefits.
    Just curious, what sorts of things do you consider a benefit, especially in the context of words like "us" and "we?"
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  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by EyeKhan View Post
    It is pretty clear we will not be solving our population problem in any organized, planned way. But problems like that have a way of solving themselves and I totally agree that will happen regardless of what action humanity takes with regard to Mars. No foreseeable technology would allow Mars to be a safety valve for population anyway, even if it were fully terraformed today.
    I find the latter part doubtful. The hurdle would be monetary and building enough ships, and if we're at a point where we have to move X amount of people or we all die/suffer horrendously, money will not be a problem.

    Demonstrate our abilities to who? Or what?
    Ourselves? Isn't that how all initial stages of technological development go? Ask if we can do it on a certain scale, then demonstrate we can?

    Why not terraform Mars for the purpose of putting the eggs of life in two baskets instead of one? The closest thing life has to a purpose is to continue to survive over time. Infecting a second world with any sort of living thing would arguably the biggest step in that direction since sexual reproduction. Spreading to another star system would be even better.
    That would be your purpose you ascribe to human beings. Subjectivity and all.
    . . .

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by EyeKhan View Post
    Just curious, what sorts of things do you consider a benefit, especially in the context of words like "us" and "we?"
    Resources, energy, useful redundancies, a lifeboat, or just things anything that improves quality of life of people. Mars is an interest to me because being able to drop a self-sustaining and growth-enable colony there substantially decreases the risk of extinction.

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Illusions View Post
    I find the latter part doubtful. The hurdle would be monetary and building enough ships, and if we're at a point where we have to move X amount of people or we all die/suffer horrendously, money will not be a problem.
    If we're at the point where Mars is needed to support excess human population, there will be no resources to build ships to transport them. It would be vastly cheaper, easier, and inevitable to just let people starve; or fight over the remaining resources on Earth until the population drops to a reasonable size; or more realistically, both.

    Ourselves? Isn't that how all initial stages of technological development go? Ask if we can do it on a certain scale, then demonstrate we can?
    No. Technological development comes from a motive to make money, learn how to do something, make something easier to do, by accident, or all of these. Individuals, teams or even nations may take on a technological challenge to prove to the rest of the world they are capable, valuable, or superior, I guess. If you consider the Apollo program, the US was interested in demonstrating our general superiority over the Soviets and Communism and more specifically that we can use rockets to deliver nuclear bombs wherever we want. But I'm not aware of any endeavor on a large scale undertaken by humanity just to show humanity what humanity is capable of doing. I can't imagine the humanity I know and love doing something on the scale of terraforming a planet for such a sentiment.

    That would be your purpose you ascribe to human beings. Subjectivity and all.
    Oh yes, very subjective. But a purpose, definable and capable of motivating, nonetheless.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Resources, energy, useful redundancies, a lifeboat, or just things anything that improves quality of life of people. Mars is an interest to me because being able to drop a self-sustaining and growth-enable colony there substantially decreases the risk of extinction.
    I think the only benefit here that colonizing Mars could reasonably be expected to provide is redundancy/ lifeboat. Resources would be easier to get from asteroids. Energy easier from the sun. Quality of life? On Mars? Best case scenario is a generally cold and gloomy place after its terraformed. I can't imaging living there in the many generations it would take to complete that project. Miserable at best.
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  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by EyeKhan View Post
    I think the only benefit here that colonizing Mars could reasonably be expected to provide is redundancy/ lifeboat. Resources would be easier to get from asteroids. Energy easier from the sun. Quality of life? On Mars? Best case scenario is a generally cold and gloomy place after its terraformed. I can't imaging living there in the many generations it would take to complete that project. Miserable at best.
    I thought you were asking more generally than just Mars. Mars gets us living space and useful redundancy. Agreed on resources and energy being found more easily elsewhere. Perhaps it's not the most useful thing we could be doing, but because of the incredibly long time until payoff, fairly low costs for kicking it off, and risk mitigation potential, still worth doing IMO.

    Also, you're not supposed to live there until it's done. Terraforming Mars doesn't need local human presence. We just need to drop biological payloads there every fifty years or so.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by EyeKhan View Post
    No. Technological development comes from a motive to make money, learn how to do something, make something easier to do, by accident, or all of these. Individuals, teams or even nations may take on a technological challenge to prove to the rest of the world they are capable, valuable, or superior, I guess. If you consider the Apollo program, the US was interested in demonstrating our general superiority over the Soviets and Communism and more specifically that we can use rockets to deliver nuclear bombs wherever we want. But I'm not aware of any endeavor on a large scale undertaken by humanity just to show humanity what humanity is capable of doing. I can't imagine the humanity I know and love doing something on the scale of terraforming a planet for such a sentiment.
    Uhm, I don't know why you're trying to contradict me, we usually demonstrate new tech first before moving on. Are you honestly going to argue that we don't?

    Also "Hello World".
    . . .

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    I thought you were asking more generally than just Mars. Mars gets us living space and useful redundancy. Agreed on resources and energy being found more easily elsewhere. Perhaps it's not the most useful thing we could be doing, but because of the incredibly long time until payoff, fairly low costs for kicking it off, and risk mitigation potential, still worth doing IMO.

    Also, you're not supposed to live there until it's done. Terraforming Mars doesn't need local human presence. We just need to drop biological payloads there every fifty years or so.
    Nothing is that easy. Mars won't be terraformed just by seeding it with life - unless you go to very great lengths to fine tune the organisms you use, the order you seed them, where you seed them, how often, etc etc. Yeah, I guess that's a given. Monitoring that process could be done robotically, but it would be more efficient and effective to at least have a permanent lab on the surface staffed by good old fashioned biologists. And furhter, if you want it to be comfy for humans there, you'll have to do more. Mars needs heat, it needs nitrogen, and it needs a surrogate for a magnetic field (unless you have a means of melting its core...). On the other hand, given the time involved, it might be easier to just engineer humans to live in the shitty environment there. But then, of course, you have two human species. And they'll fight over the rest of the solar system. And beyond.
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  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Illusions View Post
    Uhm, I don't know why you're trying to contradict me, we usually demonstrate new tech first before moving on. Are you honestly going to argue that we don't?

    Also "Hello World".
    Trying? I agree people do things like discover new technology just to for the sake of accomplishment - it feeds the ego. (And others do the engineering to find a use for it...) But the human species going to the expense and time of terraforming an entire world for no other reason than to feed the collective human ego?
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  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by EyeKhan View Post
    collective human ego?
    I don't see how the following:

    Are we able to terraform a planet?

    Humans Terraform Mars.

    Yes we are able to terraform a planet.


    ...is ego.

    But I really think you don't understand that we do stuff for demonstration purposes, to see if it will work. Feel free to argue that we don't.
    . . .

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by Illusions View Post
    I don't see how the following:

    Are we able to terraform a planet?

    Humans Terraform Mars.

    Yes we are able to terraform a planet.


    ...is ego.
    I don't see how merely answering that question could ever be the motivation for humanity to terraform Mars.

    But I really think you don't understand that we do stuff for demonstration purposes, to see if it will work. Feel free to argue that we don't.
    Agreed. I do not understand what you mean. Are you saying that terraforming Mars would be a basic science experiment, something without a necessary real-world application in mind, like what is done commonly in universities? But you also seem to be describing a proof-of-concept sort of project, though. Like:

    "Can we do this? Yes, it can be done, and this is how."

    But those projects tend to have a larger purpose, like

    "OK, it works, lets do this to every world we encounter than meets whatever minimum critera so that we can achieve goal X." Merely proving the concept is workable isn't the ultimate goal of proving the concept.
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  21. #81
    As many as one in four Earth-like extrasolar planets should have a moon-like moon, new supercomputer simulations show.

    Having a massive moon may be needed for complex life to evolve on a wildly tilting planet. Earth’s moon raised ocean tides and stabilized our planet’s chaotic spin, allowing life’s baby steps to occur in relative peace.

    “Without a large moon, our Earth would spin around randomly,” said astronomer Ben Moore of the University of Zurich in Switzerland, coauthor of a paper to appear in the journal Icarus. “Maybe it’s unlikely that a planet would have a massive moon, and that makes the Earth sort of special.”

    At one-quarter of Earth’s diameter and more than 1 percent of its mass, Earth’s moon is proportionately one of the largest satellites in the solar system. It holds Earth’s rotation axis at 23.3 degrees, with a deviation of just 1.3 degrees every 41,000 years.

    Mars, by contrast, oscillates by 10 degrees every few hundred thousand years. It’s even thought to have flipped on its axis at least once, which may have switched it from the warm wet world it once was to the dusty wasteland it is now.

    If the collision that formed Earth’s big moon is a one-off event, however, the chances for alien life — at least as we know it — may become even slimmer. No matter how many exo-Earths are found, they may all be too unstable for life.

    To find out how rare moon-like moons are, Moore ran 64 supercomputer simulations of planets forming via collisions between smaller clumps of rock.

    Earlier studies began their simulations at the point in the system’s evolution where only 20 or 30 proto-planets remained. But Moore and colleagues, who usually study galaxy formation, were accustomed to tracking thousands of particles at once. They turned back their simulations’ clock to when thousands of small rocky bodies jostled about the sun, making their simulations more realistic than previous attempts.

    The team found that most sun-like stars should have a rocky planet in the habitable zone, the region where temperatures are right for planets to have liquid water on the surface. Of those planets, one in 12 experienced an impact that formed a moon capable of holding it steady.

    “It looks like habitable exoplanets are quite common,” Moore said.

    Some uncertainties remain in the simulations’ raw data, and details of moon formation are still under debate, he added. As many as one in four Earth-like planets, or as few as one in 45, should have stabilizing moons.

    “This is good quality stuff. These guys know what they are doing,” said astronomer Sean Raymond of the Astrophysics Laboratory of Bordeaux in France, who was not involved in the new study.

    However, Raymond said a large moon may not be as important for life as Moore suggested. If Earth spun 2.5 times faster, it wouldn’t need a big moon, he said.

    According to Don Brownlee of the University of Washington in Seattle, co-author of the book Rare Earth, the question isn’t whether life could survive on a moonless Earth, but what kind of life it would be.

    “Microbes might not care at all, but you’re probably not going to have elephants on planets without big moons,” said Brownlee. “So the big question is, what fraction of these planets are truly Earth-like? And how Earth-like does a planet have to be to have something like us on it?”
    Source

    I intend to get back to the conversation we were having before, but thought this was interesting in the meantime.

  22. #82
    That IS interesting. I've heard the Moon and how unique it might be proposed as a possible solution to the Fermi Paradox. Essentially the idea is that with an unstable axis of spin puts too much change into the system (which is always changing anyway) and life can't adapt fast enough.... I wonder if that's true? I would never have expected, however, that big moons would be more common.
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