Tiny change. Buddy you have left Lalaland for the State of Denial obviously.
A five percent fall of your currency in one day is not minute by any standard. What's worse is that it happened because a foreigner repeated what was said over and over again for more than a year now. You lot are screwed and what you are going to have to deal with is a severe depression of your economy. I have to eat my words on project fear though. It wasn't project reality but project rose tinted glasses.
Congratulations America
Tiny change. Buddy you have left Lalaland for the State of Denial obviously.
A five percent fall of your currency in one day is not minute by any standard. What's worse is that it happened because a foreigner repeated what was said over and over again for more than a year now. You lot are screwed and what you are going to have to deal with is a severe depression of your economy. I have to eat my words on project fear though. It wasn't project reality but project rose tinted glasses.
Congratulations America
The ones eating their words are Project Fear. The IMF have just revised their prediction of the UK voting Leave to cause an immediate recession to the UK being the fastest growing economy of the G7 this year yet again.
Some revision that! Depression my arse.
Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
https://www.theguardian.com/business...nd-brexit-vote
Twisting facts has become a specialty of yours. You're projected to be one of the slowest growing G7 economies in 2017, which is when the impact of Brexit is predicted to kick in.
Hope is the denial of reality
Exactly, before Brexit says very little to nothing about after Brexit. Randblade is a prime example of a swivel-eyed loon. The only thing we have to wonder about is whether he took the role upon him because he's an idiot or because he can't carry the burden of being responsible for the evisceration of his countrie's economy.
Congratulations America
I'm not twisting facts as I'm not talking about whatever shamefaced bullshit they're now spouting for next year. Pre-June 23 the impact was supposed to be a recession not the UK growing faster than any other G7 nation. The pundits have egg on their faces as their dire predictions have fallen flat, but now its a case of kicking the can down the road to next year.
No doubt next year it will be 2018 the can gets kicked to. Kick it enough times and you're bound to be right eventually. Its a case of economists proverbially predicting 9 of the last 5 recessions.
Have you been drinking? If an eviscerated economy is the fastest growing of all nations, what does that suggest about rival economies?
So you believe their 2016 projection because you agree with it, but you don't believe the 2017 projection because you don't? Cognitive dissonance at its best.
Hope is the denial of reality
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
From Minx's first link.“In the adverse scenario of long negotiations and a default to the trade rules of the World Trade Organisation, GDP plunges by 5.5% by 2019,” it said.
Under that scenario, the UK would fall into recession in 2017, IMF officials said. “The implication would be negative growth in 2017,” said one official briefing reporters in a conference call.
Hope is the denial of reality
Indeed. The IMF made a number of forecasts in the form of scenarios ranging from optimistic to severely pessimisic based on assumptions about modifiable factors such as the behavior of central banks, fiscal policy etc. In their forecasts they've generally focused on 2017 onwards, perhaps under the assumption that the UK would have the decency (and the balls) to actually begin the withdrawal process this year rather than kicking the recession down the road by triggering article 50 next year. It's pretty obvious RB once again has egg on his face after yet another misinterpretation of expert analysis.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Before the vote Cameron said he would trigger article 50 immediately. Models worked from that premise. When Cameron didn't trigger article 50 but stepped down all predictions of course became 'wrong', for the simple reason that the assumptions they were based on no longer existed. Now we are dealing with the real stuff. And the real stuff is actually nastier than the predictions.
Congratulations America
Your economy is fucked. It is growning in a collapsing currency. When will the truth sink in with you? Does it have to be Turkish style inflation with prices for every day items running into the millons? Your vote, both in the referendum and in the general elections will have helped enable the worst self-inflicted economical depression in history.
Congratulations America
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7355056.html
More silly experts making predictions that could be safely ignored. £66 billion a year is less than £350 million a week, right?
Last edited by Loki; 10-11-2016 at 06:08 PM.
Hope is the denial of reality
Wouldn't it ironic if the cuts to make up for that shortfall wind up in the NHS?
Congratulations America
I'm sure Rand would find a way to spin that to be a positive.
Hope is the denial of reality
Losing £66bn a year would be bad. I think it is extremely unlikely though and is based on the same fallacious logic that predicted an immediate crash if we voted Brexit (when the truth is the opposite is happening).
Yes, the prediction was wrong because your PM drew back from notification so that BREXIT hasn't happened. If Brexit didn't happen, there is nothing shocking about predictions about the situation post-brexit not coming true.
However, what did happen so far, is not exactly a sign that the markets have any trust in the good outcome of your Chaotic Brexit any longer.
Congratulations America
Schhh, RB is busy grabbing Brexit by the pussy.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Bullshit. The triggering of Article 50 is neither here nor there as it is a mere formal start of negotiations leading to an exit, it isn't Brexit itself.
The June 23 vote confirmed we would Brexit to the markets and the public just as much as any legal technicalities. The key points for the markets are the fact we will be leaving (confirmed June 23), the manner of our leaving (agreed in the negotiations commencing after Article 50 is triggered) and the act of leaving itself (two years after Article 50 or agreed date). Article 50 itself is only tangentially related.
Without notification there is no Brexit. As long as there is no notification there is no automatism in Brexit coming about. You could be in this state of limbo for the next 40 year just as easily. Which actually is a great fear of your even crazier compatriots and which causes them to demand Brexit NOW. Then for a while there was a bit of hope that your government would contain enough intelligence to go for what would have meant near to no disruption to the status quo. We used to call that a soft Brexit. But it turns out that your government appearantly is of the opinion that Brexit should be utterly chaotic.
Now, if your government sticks to its Chaotic Brexit plans AFTER notification AND everything comes up roses for you immediately, I will admit that Brexit isn't going to fuck your wealth beyond believe without you actually getting real control. As things are, I am in 'wait and see' mode. But it seems that investors in the UK have decided that that is too dangerous for them already. Your currency may very well reach parity or less in under half a year from the vote and the first bank has announced it's going to re-locate.
current rate €1.09
Congratulations America
Investors in the UK are so terribly worried that the FTSE is plunging new depths right?
Oh no it's hitting all time record highs.
Chinese Tourism to Britain 25% of what it was before: http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-bri...-idUKKCN12B27M
Sorry typo, I mean it is up 25%.
Did you miss the part where your currency is the one collapsing? That makes going to Britain cheap. It also makes leaving Britain expensive...
Another silly expert, this one working for the British government: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-union-uk-25bn
Hope is the denial of reality
Did you miss the part where I said that's a good thing and look at the boom our tourism industry is getting?
There's no downside to this devaluation currently. Given inflation has been stubbornly and dangerously low I literally can't think of a single negative.
The mark of a banana republic. Income will fall. Investment will fall. Inflation is likely to rise. But at least there are more tourists!
Hope is the denial of reality
Incomes are rising, investment is rising, inflation is too low but likely to improve, tourism is rising.
Win, win, win, win.
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03.pdf
Right. But you can probably ignore that as it's likely written by a non-Brit.
Hope is the denial of reality
Here we have Hazir projecting because it's actually Hazir's great fear, one he was expressing frequently when notification didn't happen immediately after the vote, and why he kept insisting that the rest of the EU wasn't going to wait for the UK to get things started if it tried to delay.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
Two opposing sides can fear the same thing. This isn't particularly surprising.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
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