covid-19

[wiggin]

Off the topic of schools, this is a good thread:

Twitter Link

This was clearly written by someone who works in a field where you have to make unsubstantiated assumptions on a regular basis... and likely by someone who hasn't had the frequent experience of making extremely well-informed hypotheses about a biological or clinical outcome only to be roundly disproven after the data is in due to the stunning complexity of biology. I can't tell you the number of times I have been surprised by an outcome, only to learn fundamentally important things that changed my model. I literally just got some data on Thursday that was shocking to me based on a series of previous experiments that had suggested an alternative likely result, and because I tested it (rather than relying on intuition and logic and extrapolating from previous results) I am now redesigning a portion of my technology's process to enhance its safety profile.

People are absolutely right to say they have no data if there is in fact no data. There may be inferences and assumptions we can make based on our experiences, and that informs our hypotheses and trial designs. Science is not performed in a vacuum. But we have the recognize that the level of certainty we have about an outcome is fairly low before we have tested it, especially in a poorly controlled real world context like a clinical intervention. I recognize that in times of great urgency there is value in acting as soon as possible even if all of the data is not yet in - that was the argument much of this forum made when I expressed skepticism about the likely efficacy of widespread cloth facemask usage by members of the public. Yet as the magnitude of the intervention and the attendant risks increases, the reason for caution also increases.

[gogobongopop]

Scotland goes into lockdown from midnight tonight for at least January. They are apparently behind England in terms of the scale of problem with this new strain (I haven't verified this), so surely it's just a matter of time now until England do as well.

[gogobongopop]

And there we go. Johnson to address the nation tonight.

Lockdown.

[RandBlade]

If the schools are closed as of tomorrow its going to be hard to explain that to our girls.

But under the circumstances I don't mind, it needs to be done I think - but close the bloody borders! People going on holidays during a bloody pandemic is less important than our children's education. If you can't have kids go to school then you can't go to Ibiza FFS.

[Aimless]

In these trying times, we have to think outside the box. Someone proposed keeping the pubs open, but only for children.

[RandBlade]

In these trying times, we have to think outside the box. Someone proposed keeping the pubs open, but only for children.

LOL!

FT reporting schools closed until February half-term. Grim but logical IMO. Very grim.

If they close the schools and they don't do anything about people going on holidays then I'm going to be very pissed off.

[gogobongopop]

Agreed.

What's annoyed me most, perhaps, in all of this is the lack of support for schools. Our primary school really struggled last year and they were not set up, at all, for remote learning. My kids were given the bare minimum if work, usually just exercises found on third party websites that were meant to last a week but realistically lasted a couple of days. There was no marking, no calling and no student teacher interaction.

I'm concerned that nothing has really changed.

We should have prepared for this eventually happening again. I see no reason why our curriculum can't be delivered by a centralised service, a few teachers and some webcams. Oak Academy is alright, but it lacks the routine and still requires a lot of parent time.

I can't stand Gavin Williamson. He should have been replaced months ago with somebody with some creativity, imagination and drive to plug the gap. It's not beyond us.

[RandBlade]

Gavin Williamson is shit. I'd gladly see the back of him.

Our kids primary school was almost exclusively third party website exercises too but it still felt like they had a personal touch. Each week there'd be a subject theme (eg a book, or animals etc) and as many of the exercises as possible would tie into that. There'd be a message from the teacher each day linking many things together.

Possibly easier with Year One when you can do a theme around "We're going on a bear hunt" etc

[RandBlade]

F*ck.

Schools closed, likely for months from the way he spoke. F*ck f*ck f*ck this is not good.

This new variant is a real bugger that even Tier 4 isn't working on it.

[gogobongopop]

I wish they'd explain why this new strain is more transmissible. If we don't know, say so, but if do explain why and how it should change our behaviour.

All as expected. As usual it was all leaked to the press beforehand.

Fuck.

[RandBlade]

I wish they'd explain why this new strain is more transmissible. If we don't know, say so, but if do explain why and how it should change our behaviour.

All as expected. As usual it was all leaked to the press beforehand.

Fuck.

What I've heard is that its to do with a mutation on the spike of the virus that makes it easier for the virus to latch onto the receptors in our cells.

Though I may have misunderstood that. Something alone those lines.

[gogobongopop]

What really pisses me off is that the government and Johnson have allowed my wife and I to agonise about what to do over the last few days. We literally didn't know what to do and didn't sleep last night, and whilst I'm glad that decision is now made for us, it's unforgivable that Johnson was doing his media rounds yesterday and today telling us schools are safe and that we should send them despite growing evidence to the contrary.

He needs to be far more careful with his words. They don't really matter when you're a silly journalist, but they fucking matter when you're leading the country.

[RandBlade]

What really pisses me off is that the government and Johnson have allowed my wife and I to agonise about what to do over the last few days. We literally didn't know what to do and didn't sleep last night, and whilst I'm glad that decision is now made for us, it's unforgivable that Johnson was doing his media rounds yesterday and today telling us schools are safe and that we should send them despite growing evidence to the contrary.

He needs to be far more careful with his words. They don't really matter when you're a silly journalist, but they fucking matter when you're leading the country.

Labour were saying the exact same bloody thing. Starmer was saying the schools should be open. Even their Shadow Education Secretary this morning on their media rounds was saying schools should be open.

Twitter Link

Then today the experts have put the country into Alert Level 5. That is new, unprecedented and wasn't the case yesterday. So it really isn't the time for petty partisan potshots.

Instead its just a horrible, horrible situation and I'm not looking forward to explaining this to our girls in the morning.

[Aimless]

Labour were saying the exact same bloody thing. Starmer was saying the schools should be open. Even their Shadow Education Secretary this morning on their media rounds was saying schools should be open.

Twitter Link

Then today the experts have put the country into Alert Level 5. That is new, unprecedented and wasn't the case yesterday. So it really isn't the time for petty partisan potshots.

Instead its just a horrible, horrible situation and I'm not looking forward to explaining this to our girls in the morning.

The only way schools could've had even a faint chance of remaining open is if govt. had acted more powerfully and more decisively, several months ago. The price of not doing so is what you're seeing now. As has been said before, this is a pattern with this govt. Granted, other countries and other govts have made somewhat similar errors, but almost none have waffled as much.

[gogobongopop]

Labour were saying the exact same bloody thing. Starmer was saying the schools should be open. Even their Shadow Education Secretary this morning on their media rounds was saying schools should be open.

Twitter Link

Then today the experts have put the country into Alert Level 5. That is new, unprecedented and wasn't the case yesterday. So it really isn't the time for petty partisan potshots.

Instead its just a horrible, horrible situation and I'm not looking forward to explaining this to our girls in the morning.

If it makes you feel better Labour were wrong too.

I'm more concerned with the government than an opposition with very little chance of winning anything in the next decade or so. It's true I'd rather have Starmer as a leader than Johnson, but I'd rather a conservative government.

I don't think it's fair to say is new or unprecedented. Sage have been advising school closures and tougher restrictions for weeks, and my understanding is that the alert level went up hours after the briefing was announced. I personally believe Johnson just succumbed to the growing pressure on social media and the recent polls showing support for lockdown.

[RandBlade]

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/p...4176.bild.html

Shocking.

[gogobongopop]

And giving schools 13 fucking hours to implement remote learning again.

Fucking idiots.

This is by far Johnson and this government's worse moment.

[Aimless]

F*ck.

Schools closed, likely for months from the way he spoke. F*ck f*ck f*ck this is not good.

This new variant is a real bugger that even Tier 4 isn't working on it.

There was no reason to expect it would've.

And giving schools 13 fucking hours to implement remote learning again.

Decisive leadership. Sorry mate, you saw it coming, as did most people who have assessed the Johnson govt's actions with a clear eye.

[RandBlade]

There was no reason to expect it would've.

It drove the old variant down. Tier 3 was enough to lower case numbers with the original virus and Tier 4 is November's lockdown and cases and R fell down significantly in November.

That even a November style lockdown isn't sufficient to keep the new variant under control is really bad.

[Aimless]

It drove the old variant down. Tier 3 was enough to lower case numbers with the original virus and Tier 4 is November's lockdown and cases and R fell down significantly in November.

That even a November style lockdown isn't sufficient to keep the new variant under control is really bad.

With the way you've been implementing measures—eg. this unvalidated Swiss cheese tier system, foolishly relaxing restrictions at the wrong time, etc—since Autumn, you haven't had even a remote chance of quashing regional outbreaks, which has guaranteed a situation that would spiral out of control. Moderate interventions sustained over time might press case numbers down far enough to give you sufficient margins, but, if the number of cases remains fairly high, the potential for an out of control surge will remain high. That is what has happened in the UK, with these delays, half-measures and untimely course-changes. It's not as if you weren't being warned for several months that you would be overwhelmed again. It doesn't even take a drastically more transmissible variant—a slightly more transmissible variant would've been overwhelming as well, given equally slim margins and equally untimely decisions to relax restrictions. The lessons for the future are still the same as they were in Spring, and in Autumn: don't end restrictions prematurely and all at once and while you still have a high level of community transmission. Hopefully your early vaccine rollout will help. Hopefully your decision to focus on breadth of protection will yield positive results. Hopefully your decision to delay the second dose of vaccine won't saddle you with a protracted wave and more headaches down the line. But there's no reason to hope your waffling with tiers will be effective if you keep carrying on the way you have for the past year.

[Aimless]

I don't think it's fair to say is new or unprecedented. Sage have been advising school closures and tougher restrictions for weeks

If you recall the bombshell Times report, the govt's advisors have grown increasingly alarmed over the past several months, to the point of trying to force the govt's hand by getting information out to the public. To no avail.

We are doomed to repeat this cycle of lockdowns with premature lifting of restrictions, which eventually necessitates another lockdown, which will again ended lifted until kingdom come, and it's all because these useless cunts are too lazy to look up exponential functions on Wikipedia.

Here's Michael Hunt calling for restrictions that should have been put in place weeks ago if not before, and going further than anything Starmer has suggested.

Made me physically uncomfortable to have to agree with Jeremy Hunt. One of the more frustrating aspects of this pandemic.

[RandBlade]

And giving schools 13 fucking hours to implement remote learning again.

Fucking idiots.

This is by far Johnson and this government's worse moment.

To be fair all schools should be operating and planning for remote learning already due to any socially distanced children (shielding, positive etc) - plus they were put on alert this could happen already.

Our school emailled us on the weekend to say they were opening as normal on Monday but that they were prepared for remote learning if it was to be announced.

[gogobongopop]

Schools can't operate on the assumption that Johnson says x therefore we'll do y.

And following yesterday I did genuinely think schools would remain open. More fool me.

[gogobongopop]

That's good. Ours isn't prepared at all. I don't know why they're not but they'll be closing tomorrow and Wednesday completely to put things in place.

(That's primary school. The secondary school was planning for remote learning anyway this week).

[RandBlade]

That's good. Ours isn't prepared at all. I don't know why they're not but they'll be closing tomorrow and Wednesday completely to put things in place.

(That's primary school. The secondary school was planning for remote learning anyway this week).

That really surprises me. The logical thing to do was prepare.

We're in Tier 4 if it makes a difference. I can more understand those not in Tier 4 being caught by surprise.

[Aimless]

This thread is America:

Twitter Link

"People die. Your father is not special."

[Steely Glint]

We are doomed to repeat this cycle of lockdowns with premature lifting of restrictions, which eventually necessitates another lockdown, which will again be lifted prematurely etc, until kingdom come, and it's all because these useless cunts are too lazy to look up exponential functions on Wikipedia.

Keir Starmer, by the way, is also a dipshit.

Here's Jeremy Hunt calling for restrictions that should have been put in place weeks ago if not before, and going further than anything Starmer has suggested.

Twitter Link

What's even the point in Keir Starmer if more effective and robust opposition comes from inside the damn Tory party?

[RandBlade]

Twitter Link

[Aimless]

Not sure I see what's so shocking about Bild trying to stoke nationalist outrage over some bullshit scandal—it's practically a line item on their budget.

[RandBlade]

It is a major scandal, or should be. Absolute incompetence that trumps anything being discussed in this thread outside of the USA.