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The plot thickens
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The plot thickens
Originally Posted by gogobongopop
Absolute idiocy.
Because the subsample of over 65s in the Phase III was small so the confidence interval is massive.
Same issue applied to Pfizer. The subsample of over 65s in Pfizer's Phase III was small and the confidence interval went down to -13% . . . ie that worst-case you're 13% more likely to catch Covid if you have Pfizer than if you don't.
Isn't the problem with them that their data is messy and the study was poorly set up/ executed on top of that?
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
Biggest problem is that there was, like, one (1) case in the control group in that age category. It makes it very difficult to estimate efficacy. You can (but shouldn't) try to infer the true efficacy through various methods, and I suspect they will be consistent with low or intermediate or high efficacy—ie. useless.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Vaccine update.
In bed. Temperature. Can't move. Cold. Everything hurts. Nausea. Properly feels like flu.
Feel conscious and with it though.
I last had chemo two weeks ago today. Bloods were top notch this morning. Felt fighting fit.
On the plus side it's more comfortable than chemotherapy. Give me the flu anytime.
Hoping it'll pass soon.
Take care gogo... good night to treat yourself to something nice
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Thanks. Think it might be easing. Chills have stopped and I'm sitting up. Very high fever though.
Papa John's as soon as poss. Stuffed crust. Onions. Double Mushrooms. Pepperoni.
damn you i had just managed to kick the pizza addiction
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
too farOnions
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
You're an olives and anchovies kind of guy, right?
Absolutely awful night. Temperature was hitting 39c. Body hurting all over. No sleep.
Feeling a bit better now. Temperature dropping. Less achy.
A lot of people in my position have had a similar side effects from the AZN vaccine (according to a cancer support group I frequent.) Seems like those who had the Pfizer vaccine had an easy time afterwards.
Sounds good, enjoy, you deserve it!
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BOOM! Another successful vaccine Phase III!
89% efficiency.
Tested on Kent supercovid mutation.
Manufactured in Teeside.
60 million doses on order. First doses reserved.
27% of people in the trial were over 65.
Another one in the back of the net. Fantastic! We're going to have more doses than we need and able to send them to Covax to aid the third world soon.
UK reserved first Novavax doses last August. EU are still in talks with Novavax - might want to get a move on . . .
EDIT: Rolling review process for this too so MHRA should be able to grant emergency authorisation quite quickly so long as everything is good.
The company initiated a rolling submission to the United Kingdom’s regulatory agency, the MHRA, in mid-January.
August 14th: Under the terms of the agreement, Novavax will supply 60 million doses of NVX-CoV2373 to the UK beginning as early as the first quarter of 2021. Excess supply of antigen manufactured at the FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies site in Billingham, Stockton-on-Tees may be available for Novavax to sell to additional markets outside the UK.
https://ir.novavax.com/node/15506/pdf
Last edited by RandBlade; 01-28-2021 at 10:24 PM.
Novavax only 50% effective against Saffers Covid variant though. Concerning that others could be similarly effected. We need to enforce hotel quarantine with all countries that aren't zero Covid.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ng-home-deaths
"When the first coronavirus wave hit New York state last spring, nursing homes and assisted living facilities were devastated.
An investigation by the office of state Attorney General Letitia James issued Thursday found the death toll was far worse than officials disclosed.
"A larger number of nursing home residents died from COVID-19 than [New York Department of Health] data reflected," the preliminary report concluded.
N.Y. officials had estimated nursing home deaths during the pandemic totaled roughly 8,700.
But the probe by James' office found those reports "undercounted by as much as 50%" the number of seniors who died.
Investigators surveyed more than 60 nursing homes and found discrepancies between the number of deaths recorded and numbers previously reported by state officials.
The AG's office says it is still "investigating those circumstances where the discrepancies cannot reasonably be accounted for," according to a statement in the report.
Cuomo himself hasn't responded to the report. But state Health Commissioner Dr. Howard Zucker issued a lengthy statement Thursday afternoon downplaying the significance of the findings.
Zucker said N.Y. reported coronavirus fatalities by the location where they occurred. Which means if an elderly patient died after being transported to a hospital, they wouldn't be included in the tally of nursing home deaths.
"DOH does not disagree that the number of people transferred from a nursing home to a hospital is an important data point, and is in the midst of auditing this data from nursing homes," Zucker added.
During the pandemic, Cuomo, a Democrat, gained a national profile for his hands-on approach to promoting public health policies and reducing infection rates.
For a time, his daily briefings drew a national audience, serving as a kind of counterpoint to coronavirus briefings held by then-President Donald Trump.
But questions about Cuomo's handling of nursing home safety have haunted his administration.
Cuomo has drawn particular fire for an executive order issued in March requiring nursing homes to re-admit residents still recovering from COVID-19.
His administration later rescinded the controversial order.
Last summer, a report by state health officials concluded high rates of coronavirus death in nursing homes were caused by infected staff, not returning residents.
But Cuomo's team has refused to make public the data used to compile that report.
Earlier this week, a top Democrat in the state legislature, Sen. James Skoufis, threatened to file subpoenas to "compel" Health Department officials to release more information.
This new report adds to the pressure on Cuomo's team to offer a full accounting of nursing home mortality.
In a statement, James, also a Democrat, said "it is imperative that we understand why the residents of nursing homes in New York unnecessarily suffered at such an alarming rate."
While much of the scrutiny of Cuomo's nursing home policy has come from fellow Democrats and the media, the issue has increasingly become a political liability for the governor.
Shortly after James' report was made public, New York's Republican Party issued a statement condemning Cuomo's handling of the pandemic and accusing him of a "cover-up."
"These findings will have implications across New York state and they cannot be dismissed as political attacks," the statement read.
James' report also found many nursing homes in New York failed to comply with infection control protocols and lacked sufficient personal protective equipment needed to keep residents safe."
New York fucked up.
Who has bought Novavax:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...ion-purchasing
Big list already there, close to 1.4 billion doses already on order, should be a massive boost to the globe to get this approved.
India, 1bn orders
Only fair, considering their partnership with the world's biggest vaccine manufacturerIndia, 1bn orders
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
The Indians aren't pissing about
That's on top of the billion orders of AZN they're getting this year.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
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Khen and Hazir, can either of you confirm that this is a sufficiently accurate representation of her comments? It seems implausible. At the same time, her call to have the contract made public suggests she and her team clearly disagree with Soriot's characterization of their agreement. Feel like something has been lost in translation, either wrt this interview, or wrt the communication between the Commission and AZN/Soriot.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Oh my. Oh my oh my. *facepalm*
The contract has been released. Technically VDL was right it doesn't say "best efforts" it actually says "best reasonable efforts".
The problem is "best reasonable efforts" is a lower threshold in law than "best efforts" is, not a higher one.
Almost as if a multibillion pound pharmaceutical giant probably paying well over a thousand dollars an hour to its lawyers have more understanding and expertise at writing pharmaceutical contracts than political apparatchiks handling a field they've never dealt with before.
LOL @ the Matt cartoon.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-shows-really/
First real-world data on vaccination effectiveness shows 'really promising' results
Initial figures appear to justify the delayed second dose approach, according to the JCVI
Interesting article and quotes. Also interesting to hear that there are two representatives of the WHO on the JCVI, I didn't know that, and they're expecting in the future the WHO to adopt the delayed second dose strategy as their advice worldwide.
Forecast now based on the new data coming in is the delayed second dose will save 4000 lives.
I hadn't realized it's already been 12 weeks. How time flies.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
It doesn't need to be over 12 weeks to get early data.
If early data is showing that the expected 70%+ protection is already happening in real life with 1 dose then having twice as many people vaccinated will save thousands of lives. That's a bit of a truism. Barring any catastrophic shocks which ongoing monitoring will keep an eye on.
If it goes as high as the potential 90% for one dose that Pfizer could be offering then its a total no-brainer for the WHO to recommend this globally and its reassuring to know they're involved with monitoring this with a view to a potential global rollout. That the WHO are involved with the JCVI makes sense but I didn't see that coming, its good to know.
This data is applicable—barely—to a different question. You could have gotten "early" data after 1 week. It would be meaningless. The new information is interesting, but it is not useful in a discussion about a completely different question.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
It depends what question you're trying to answer.
The right question to answer is "how to save as many lives as possible with the vaccine."
The specific question here is whether or not you will save more people overall by delaying the second Pfizer dose by 12 weeks compared to not delaying at all or delaying by a different number of weeks. There are some other associated questions that are relevant to consider, eg. re. the efficacy over that 12 week period, and subsequent level and quality of protection thereafter, and other questions about epidemiological aspects.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Absolutely and that data will come with time.
If there is a high level of efficacy after a couple of weeks there should equally be a high level of efficacy a month or two later. It would be extremely rare for efficacy to plummet within no time at all. That should get confirmed later on.
Again the expectation and history is that a bigger gap leads to better protection going forwards, but that too will take time to confirm.
Epidemiologically more people not spreading a viral load because they're immunised should be a good thing, though that too will take time to confirm.
In the meantime the data shows it is working for now. That is all that could be asked for at this stage. Perhaps by the time the EU gets a considerable amount of vaccine doses to rollout we might have enough data to show this worked and for you to save more lives too - that would be a win, win.
Do you have a link?
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
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