UK General Election 2015

[RandBlade]

The polls have been neck and neck for months now, where do you think this magic 4% swing is going to come from? The Tories are boned. Assuming the SNP get their nigh on clean sweep in Scotland, no national party is going to be able to form a government without their say so, and the SNP simply will not work with the Tories. Unless the polls are drastically wrong, a Tory government isn't going to happen.

Which polls?

ICM have had the Tories approximately 4% in the lead, that could be enough. A few weeks ago they had the Tories 6% in the lead, that's almost certainly enough. To go from 4% lead to a 6% lead is a 1% swing (Tories up 1, Labour down 1 is a 1% swing). A 4% swing would put the Tories 12% in the lead and would be a landslide. Last time Tories got a 7% lead but due to advantages in the system for Labour, Tory votes are less efficient. This time Tory votes are more likely to be more efficient (due to UKIP taking votes but not seats off the Tories in safe Tory seats for example).

As for where a swing could come from, there's a few answers for that. The polls frequently underestimate the government, in a landslide election that doesn't matter but in a close one it does.

Randblade, do you think I'm stupid or something and am going to fall for this level of drivel?

In the referendum, AV was rejected. Not PR. Not some other system. Just AV. Nor did the question on the referendum rule out any further referendum or any other changes to our current system in perpetuity. Come on, man.

Except the arguments made were largely the arguments made for (and against) PR. Yes PR wasn't on the table, but it was what most of the arguments were about at the time - and what was argued against at the time. I thought that was stupid, but it was the case and the status quo was supported overwhelmingly against change.

As soon as it was over, rather than acknowledge the public had decided to reject change and keep the status quo the argument instantly became that the public rejected this change and we should just do it again. Maybe without asking the public next time, in case they get it wrong again. That is hubristic and wrong.

[Steely Glint]

Which polls?

ICM have had the Tories approximately 4% in the lead, that could be enough. A few weeks ago they had the Tories 6% in the lead, that's almost certainly enough. To go from 4% lead to a 6% lead is a 1% swing (Tories up 1, Labour down 1 is a 1% swing). A 4% swing would put the Tories 12% in the lead and would be a landslide. Last time Tories got a 7% lead but due to advantages in the system for Labour, Tory votes are less efficient. This time Tory votes are more likely to be more efficient (due to UKIP taking votes but not seats off the Tories in safe Tory seats for example).

All other polls seem to have put them neck and neck for months. I don't know why you'd take ICM to be correct and the others to be wrong, other than the ICM one suggesting that your preferred outcome might come to pass.

You point out that last time the Tories had a 7% lead over Labour, but that still wasn't enough for them to get a majority on their own, they needed the Lib Dems. But the Lib Dems are going to get wiped out, and loose about 50 seats. The Tories were 20 short last time so, assuming the Lib Dems are prepared to work with them again, they will actually need to exceed their performance last time by about 10 seats to even have a shot at a coalition. Even your most optimistic scenario leaves them with serious problems.

Labour, meanwhile, only needs about 260 seats to form a government with some kind of SNP, Lib-Dem, PC coalition.

Except the arguments made were largely the arguments made for (and against) PR. Yes PR wasn't on the table, but it was what most of the arguments were about at the time - and what was argued against at the time. I thought that was stupid, but it was the case and the status quo was supported overwhelmingly against change.

I don't know why you think that this somehow changes the fact that AV was on the referendum, not PR. I also don't know why you think the rejection of AV somehow means the UK public has rejected any change to the electoral system in perpetuity. You're deluding yourself about what the vote actually meant, as you are with the Tories current position in the polls.