Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 86

Thread: How should Britain vote in the EU referendum?

  1. #1

    Default How should Britain vote in the EU referendum?

    The UK as we've discussed is going to have a "once in a lifetime" vote on whether to Remain in the EU or Leave the EU. How do you think the UK should vote and why? Incidentally for the best interests of the UK preferably and not for what works best for the rest of the EU.

    For me I have always hated the Euroloons of the likes of UKIP, the Tory right etc, though there's been a surprising amount of rational people from who've made arguments to leave that don't boil down to "stop migrants". Also surprising is the amount of people who've said Leave but join the EFTA to stay in the Single Market.

    I think the most likely outcome is a big win for Remain, though if we Leave I think the outcome would be to go to the EFTA and not completely Leave (as the Remainers and Leave but EFTA probably covers at least three quarters of the population).

    So there are essentially three options although there are only two on the ballot. Remain, Leave and go to EFTA and Leave altogether.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #2
    The way I view the key issues is the following. Underneath I've put whether on each issue I think EU, EFTA or Leave.

    Single Market
    The UK's largest trading partners are the rest of the EU, but the EU is stagnating and shrinking as both a share of the global economy and a share of our trade. Exports to the EU is 45% of our total trade. The UK runs a massive trade deficit (over £60bn per year) with the EU and oddly enough runs a trade surplus with the rest of the world so the Leave side argue that the EU would definitely sign a Free Trade agreement with us even if we aren't in the Single Market itself.
    I think we should stay in the Single Market but it's far from the only thing we are or should be doing. So EU or EFTA. I'm only 95% not 100% confident the EU would give a Free Trade agreement with us without being in the Single Market even though it would be definitely in their interests to allow it as it would require the agreement of all nations in the EU and some may choose to be spiteful.

    Migration
    The EU (and the EFTA/EEA) allows free movement to live, settle, work or retire anywhere in Europe (and vice-versa). The equivalent IMO of the USA signing freedom of movement with Mexico and Central America. I'm pro-free movement but it's an unpopular opinion.
    I like this so EU or EFTA, but others who hate it would make sense to go for Leave.

    Customs Union
    I only recently learnt that despite being in the Single Market, the EFTA nations are not in the Customs Union. So inside the EU the UK has the same customs rates as the rest of the EU but in the EFTA (or a full Leave) we could negotiate our own trade deals and would sit independently on bodies like the WTO. The argument to stay in the EU is that we can negotiate better trade deals with counties like USA and China if we go toe-to-toe as part of the world's largest trade organisation. The argument for EFTA is that the EU doesn't just care about our interests anyway and we are the world's fifth largest economy so could negotiate good deals in our own right without waiting for the lowest common denominator for countries like France. Switzerland has a free trade deal with China which the UK as part of the EU does not, it had a free trade deal with Canada before the EU.
    I'm leaning EFTA on this one, I think we could negotiate deals quicker and easier if we don't need to appeal to French farmers.

    Influence on Single Market laws
    The UK gets more say on Single Market laws in the EU than in the EFTA so this would be an argument for Remaining. Though Hazir has tried to spend the last 15 years saying the UK has no influence anyway so it would not be if he's right.
    Remain in the EU

    Influence on the Global Stage
    Do we have more say in the EU or not?
    Frankly I don't think it matters one single jot. We're the world's fifth largest economy, fifth largest military, permanent UN Security Council member. Our international relations are frequently more aligned with the USA than France or Germany. I think this is utterly irrelevant. EU, EFTA or Leave it's irrelevant.

    Democratic accountability
    The EU applies a lot of laws that I think should have nothing to do with it, like on Social matters etc. EFTA nations are only required to apply about 5% of EU laws and those are typically on things like standards that are typically globalised anyway. EG electronics products are CE certified in the EU, but almost anything you buy is certified both FCC (USA Certification) and CE anyway. This would be the same whether we stay or Leave.
    EFTA or Leave

    Contributions to the EU
    The UK contributes £13bn per annum net of rebate to the EU which is rising as we are growing faster than the rest of the EU and get effectively charged more the more we grow. In the EFTA this would come down to about a third of the figure.
    EFTA or Leave would reduce or eliminate this.

    Employees Rights etc
    (See Democratic Accountability)
    Some Trade Unions* are campaigning to remain because of this. The EU dictates on social policy a lot of restrictions as to how much employee rights there are. I oppose this, I think it's got squat to do with the EU and should be decided locally. If one nation wants to be socialist it shouldn't apply to us. I trust the British voters to decide on this. I don't think this applies to EFTA nations.
    EFTA or Leave.

    * Some are campaigning to Leave due to high migration suppressing wages in their view.

    Security
    It's being argued by some that the EU improves security due to us trading information with other nations. Others argue it hurts security due to unrestricted migration.
    I think this is irrelevant. The main nation we trade info with is the USA which isn't even part of the EU.

    Common Agricultural Policy/Fisheries Policy
    Gives a lot of subsidies to farmers and requires a lot of tariffs on non-European food so means that food costs customers a lot more than it would otherwise. Also hurts Africa because they can't export agriculture to the EU without high tariffs. Doesn't apply to EFTA. The UK has wanted the CAP/CFP reformed ever since we joined, it never has been and likely never will be.
    Definitely EFTA or Leave this one.

    Summary
    I think that covers the main issues, though I wouldn't weight each equally personally (in fact I view two to be complete red herrings). I would rule out Leave to mean Leave completely, I think we should be part of the Single Market. So to me it comes down to the EU versus the EFTA which has been very little discussed here.

    EDIT: Just counted my issues break downs and I see the following (though I don't weigh each equally as I said), discounting completely both the ones I said were irrelevant.
    EU: 3 (but the most important 3)
    EFTA: 7 (everything bar influence in shaping Single Market laws)
    Leave: 4
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    The UK as we've discussed is going to have a "once in a lifetime" vote on whether to Remain in the EU or Leave the EU. How do you think the UK should vote and why?
    Whichever way will aggravate Hazir more, for obvious reasons.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  4. #4
    Rand, the vote is quite difficult. But I'd say the UK might be better off, in the long run, if they stay within the EU's mandate that labor can't be "traded" for political power. There's no way the UK can beat the Great Recession on its own.

  5. #5
    Not sure what you mean about labour getting traded for political purposes.

    As for no way of beating the last recession, that ended six years ago now already, it's history. We are not just growing but now officially have full employment too. While household debts are back to below pre recession levels too. It's only our public debt and deficit that is an issue still. These have all been fixed despite not because of the EU.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #6
    All your problems have been fixed?

  7. #7
    Related to the recession? Other than the deficit pretty much yes. I'm more worried about the next recession than I am the last one.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #8
    Perhaps you should worry about how the London Whale helped to create the biggest financial crisis in history?

  9. #9
    It didn't.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #10
    If opinion polling can be believed* then the vote could be very close. Today's ICM has Leave winning 41-40. Older voters (who turnout to vote) are much more likely to be pro-Leave, while younger voters (who don't turnout) are pro-Remain. So if the opinion pollsters are underestimating the elderly vote and overestimating the young vote like they normally do they could be underestimating the Leave vote.

    * It can't.

    As it happens I put no weight in the opinion polls and still predict Remain to win at least 60%, though that is down from my projections of two-thirds of the vote.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #11
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    In the forests of the night
    Posts
    6,238
    The fun thing: Leaving the EU but staying in EFTA will yield the unhappy persons exactly squat - because you still have to obey the rules set by the EFTA.

    It's just that you then will have no voice anymore what those rules are going to be.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  12. #12
    Yeah mean EEA not EFTA.
    "Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt

  13. #13
    Is that true though?

    Hazir has spent the last 15 years trying to convince me that the UK has no influence in setting the EU's rules anyway, even with the threat of us leaving the renegotiation has improved some things marginally but not exactly transformed anything. So what influence do we stand to lose?
    While the EEA/EFTA has to obey some of the rules of the EU, it's not all of them. The UK has to enforce 100% of the EU's rules, whereas I believe Switzerland through its EFTA membership has to apply about 5% of them and Norway due to it's EEA membership applies about 7% of them. So we'd lose what little influence we have on the 7% sure but we'd regain 100% influence on the remaining 93%.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  14. #14
    ICM have published a poll showing Remain at 40% and Leave at 41% but the age breakdown is grim reading for Remain if true:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    Given the differential turnout factors in normal votes I would not be confident if those are the figures on final polls. I expect a shift to remain though, not that the remain campaign deserves it so far, there's only absurd negativity and celebrities so far. I respect Cameron a lot but I don't believe the four horsemen of the apocalypse will arrive if we leave which is about what is being claimed currently LOL.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #15
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    In the forests of the night
    Posts
    6,238
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Is that true though?

    Hazir has spent the last 15 years trying to convince me that the UK has no influence in setting the EU's rules anyway, even with the threat of us leaving the renegotiation has improved some things marginally but not exactly transformed anything. So what influence do we stand to lose?
    While the EEA/EFTA has to obey some of the rules of the EU, it's not all of them. The UK has to enforce 100% of the EU's rules, whereas I believe Switzerland through its EFTA membership has to apply about 5% of them and Norway due to it's EEA membership applies about 7% of them. So we'd lose what little influence we have on the 7% sure but we'd regain 100% influence on the remaining 93%.
    So? Numbers are meaningless when it comes to rules and laws. I mean, you could repeal hundreds of laws regarding the "official nomenclature of horse manure" and the like. Sounds impressive and means exactly squat when a law like: "The king may execute one governmental official on a whim once per year" still stands afterwards.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  16. #16
    Yes but laws like social regulations which I completely dislike and think should have nothing to do with a common market, or the CAP which is one of the nastiest and most pernicious laws about are in the not standing afterwards category. Not sure what laws and regulations if any I care about would still stand.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #17
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    In the forests of the night
    Posts
    6,238
    You mean something like this?

    http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Socia...gulations.aspx

    Yes, so evil to demand that you treat foreign workers which are there on the express wishes of your companies, that you treat them the same as nationals! For shame! They should piss right off where they came from in case they dare to become ill!
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  18. #18
    I have no qualms whatsoever with treating foreign workers equitably and I couldn't care less whether said foreign worker is from Germany or Canada or Nigeria or Pakistan or Australia. Do you? Or is it only white Europeans you care about and anyone who isn't a white European should go home if they become ill?

    That's not what I'm talking about though. The EU meddles in laws that have nothing to do with international relations or international trade. If I am running a British company and want to hire a British employee and trade within Britain then the appropriate government to determine said working regulations is the British government. The EU should never have become involved with employment regulations etc, it even sets regulations that the USA's Federal government would never dream of imposing as a federal law upon its States.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #19
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    In the forests of the night
    Posts
    6,238
    Yes, if I wanted to own a serf then by golly, the EU should have no say in it!

    Your counterquestion doesn't even deserve an answer because it's despicable.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  20. #20
    Absolutely agreed the EU should have no say in it. If you want to own a serf then your own country should have laws about that. If the prospective serf is in your nation, you are in your nation etc then why on Earth should the EU which is not a nation be involved? The EU should not be doing what your own country should be doing. If you don't trust your own government to not allow serfdom then you should deal with your own nations foibles, not mess around with mine.

    How is it despicable to ask that white Europeans and everyone else get treated equitably? I'm shocked and horrified that in the 21st century you'd find having Nigerians treated as equitably as Germans is despicable. Quite clearly you must think it's acceptable to tell Nigerians to "piss right off where they came from" since you think to not do so is a matter only for the nationals of fellow white European nations.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #21
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    In the forests of the night
    Posts
    6,238
    See, Rand, and this is why no one takes you island-apes seriously.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  22. #22
    Because we value the rest of the world as much as our small and figuratively shrinking continent? Explains a lot. Or is it the idea of having confidence in your own nation to safeguard rights that is so alien to you? That I can understand as historically we came up with modern parliamentary democracy and led the fight against both slavery and fascism while the less said of your nation the better.

    With your stinking attitude you're an advert for Leave like Hazir.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #23
    Wow. That is certainly a very interesting account of the history of the British Empire.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  24. #24
    It's a brief and accurate summary of Britain as a Brit. I don't think I mentioned Empire or colonials there whatsoever did I?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #25
    Perhaps you should have since you decided to talk about abolishing slavery and inventing modern parliamentary democracy. You know, while you were at it. Why limit yourself to only the nice things? Be free and proud man
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  26. #26
    Because we were talking about whether the EU needs to guarantee our rights and from my British perspective no it absolutely does not. Britain has a far prouder history of guaranteeing our own freedoms and rights than the continental equivalents ever did. The Empire was a by-product of its time and while there were problems in hindsight with colonialism but if you want to go down that road then the British Empire was arguably the most enlightened Empire the world has ever seen, in its day people were trying even then to be good and not evil, using our force as a civilising factor upon the world like abolishing slavery, unlike the Roman, Spanish and other Empires before ours that had industrialised it.

    Khen may feel he needs the EU to protect his rights to avoid his nation becoming fascist, I do not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #27
    the British Empire was arguably the most enlightened Empire the world has ever seen
    you fucking kidding me?
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  28. #28
    No. You think the Spaniards were better? Or the Romans?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #29
    Yes.
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  30. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Because we were talking about whether the EU needs to guarantee our rights and from my British perspective no it absolutely does not. Britain has a far prouder history of guaranteeing our own freedoms and rights than the continental equivalents ever did. The Empire was a by-product of its time and while there were problems in hindsight with colonialism but if you want to go down that road then the British Empire was arguably the most enlightened Empire the world has ever seen, in its day people were trying even then to be good and not evil, using our force as a civilising factor upon the world like abolishing slavery, unlike the Roman, Spanish and other Empires before ours that had industrialised it.

    Khen may feel he needs the EU to protect his rights to avoid his nation becoming fascist, I do not.
    Wow yeah kudos to you guys on "abolishing" slavery before everyone else (not really) once slavery became less lucrative financially and kudos also on your enlightened treatment (not really) of non-white subjects of the crown residing in your enlightened and civilized colonies. I guess I understand what you're trying to say: Brits can (maybe) be counted on to safeguard the rights of those people whom at any given time happen to be acknowledged as being both British and human (but those people shouldn't expect to not have their movements monitored by cameras or to be able to surf porn without anyone finding out or to not be spied on unlawfully by their intelligence agencies). I guess it's a valid point although I'm not sure you really want to forward the argument that GB can be counted on treat proper citizens decently, while mistreating non-citizens in horrible ways, in support of your view that Britain r0x0rz. Go on, please make some more arguments.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •