UK Election 8th of June

[Steely Glint]

With the DUP, she has a working majority of 2. She's going to have a rough time governing on that. I stand by my earlier prediction of another election inside a year. She'll struggle on for a few months but every time she wants to get legislation passed she'll need to please literally everyone in the Conservatives + DUP. Eventually, her party will have had enough of her and she'll be forced out or resign, and then the next Tory leader (BoJo?) will call another election and maybe take that one a bit more seriously.

I also hope someone's going to pour some cold water over Labour triumphalism soon. I don't know if anyone noticed, but Corbyn just lost. Lost to the Conservatives running perhaps the most incompetent campaign in living memory.

[Hazir]

Eurgh. I feel like I'm completely, utterly done with the Conservatives.

Am I happy with the outcome of Brexit? Hell no.

Am I happy with the outcome of this election? Hell no.

From my POV: reckless, incompetent and complacent over the last 18 months.

Goddammit, buck up your game. You're up against Jeremy *&^%ing Corbyn.

You do realize that we actually know you voted for the Conservatives not 24 hours ago, don't you? The only thing that changed since then is that they didn't win the elections. Otherwise everything is exactly the same as when you cast your vote.

[gogobongopop]

Indeed. More fool me then.

[RandBlade]

With the DUP, she has a working majority of 2. She's going to have a rough time governing on that. I stand by my earlier prediction of another election inside a year. She'll struggle on for a few months but every time she wants to get legislation passed she'll need to please literally everyone in the Conservatives + DUP. Eventually, her party will have had enough of her and she'll be forced out or resign, and then the next Tory leader (BoJo?) will call another election and maybe take that one a bit more seriously.

I also hope someone's going to pour some cold water over Labour triumphalism soon. I don't know if anyone noticed, but Corbyn just lost. Lost to the Conservatives running perhaps the most incompetent campaign in living memory.

With the DUP she will have a working majority of 15 assuming the Tories as predicted win the final seat (13 if they lose it).

Pro-government: 319 (Tory inc Speaker) + 10 (DUP) = 329
Everyone else: 650 seats - 329 - 7 (Sinn Fein) = 314

[RandBlade]

Some thoughts

1: The Tory share is the highest share of the vote by any government since 1997, exceeding that Blair got in 2001 when he won a 167 seat majority.
2: The Tory vote total is the second highest vote total ever (only bested by John Major in 1992), beating even that which Blair got in 1997
3: This was nevertheless a dreadful, appalling result in the circumstances.
4: May should go, but can't right now. She'll be gone by 2019 at the very latest.
5: Those who thought that Corbyn's history with Sinn Fein/IRA was OK can't really complain about a deal with the DUP.
6: UKIP are dead.
7: Sindyref2 is dead.
8: Feel sorry for Clegg, feel nothing but schadenfreude for Salmond.

And the most weird bit of all:
The Tories got not just a clear majority of English seats and actually won a narrow majority (50.5%) of seats Great Britain too. It was only due to Northern Ireland that the Tories don't have a majority. However 10/11 of Northern Irish MPs will be backing the government.

[Loki]

Current talk is of a minority government with DUP support only on key votes.

[RandBlade]

Same as the SNP administration in Scotland, with Greens in place of DUP.

[Loki]

Different electoral system, different dynamics in Scotland.

[RandBlade]

Electoral system doesn't matter, only number of seats matters.

[Ominous Gamer]

Hopefully this embarrassment puts a damper on May pushing you guys farther into 1984.

[Timbuk2]

Well, for perspective, we narrowly escaped Corbyn pushing us back to 1978 ...

[Khendraja'aro]

Well, for perspective, we narrowly escaped Corbyn pushing us back to 1978 ...

Sounds like you want to ignore what made 40% of the people vote Labour. But, hey, have fun ignoring nearly half of your populace again.

[RandBlade]

Not ignoring it.

Many of that 40% did so because they are lifelong Labour supporters/Tory opponents and would vote for a donkey with a red rosette.
Many of that 40% did so because despite opposing Corbyn and Corbynism, they thought he'd lose anyway and it was the best way to prevent a forecast Tory landslide.
Many of that 40% did so because despite opposing Corbyn and Corbynism, they expected Corbyn to lose and wanted Labour in the best position to rebuild after his resignation.
Many of that 40% did so because they believed his jam for everyone bullshit and didn't realise that it was unaffordable garbage.
Many of that 40% did so because they dislike the government and wanted to vote against it.

[BluntHorse]

Not ignoring it.

Many of that 40% did so because they are lifelong Labour supporters/Tory opponents and would vote for a donkey with a red rosette.
Many of that 40% did so because despite opposing Corbyn and Corbynism, they thought he'd lose anyway and it was the best way to prevent a forecast Tory landslide.
Many of that 40% did so because despite opposing Corbyn and Corbynism, they expected Corbyn to lose and wanted Labour in the best position to rebuild after his resignation.
Many of that 40% did so because they believed his jam for everyone bullshit and didn't realise that it was unaffordable garbage.
Many of that 40% did so because they dislike the government and wanted to vote against it.

Many of that 40% did so because despite the horrendous, co-ordinated, media campaign of smears, lies and horse shit against Corbyn. By billionaire tax avoiding paying cunts with magic money trees in (warm tax avoiding climates conducive to their growth), who manipulate working class people to vote against their own interests.
Many people's negative view of Corbyn has been formed purely by the media.
Corbyn was arrested for campaigning against South African apartheid whilst Cameron was accepting paid trips for 'fact finding' missions.
bit rich to have accused Corbyn of supporting terrorism, when you had an actual fucking IRA terrorist, Maria Gatland, serving as a current Tory councilor.

[Hazir]

I find the argument that May needs to go 'because she called an unnecessary election' remarkable. Especially from the mouths of MP's of both sides of the House who actually voted for a snap election.

[Loki]

Electoral system doesn't matter, only number of seats matters.

It matters a great deal. Scottish parties (including the British offshoots) are used to coalitions; British ones are not. There's also more of a system for how to treat coalition partners.

[wiggin]

Framed as a joke, but not entirely without merit.

I mean it's true that Corbyn's obvious unsuitability to lead a bowling team, let alone a country, was what tempted May to roll the dice. But to suggest that this is part of Corbyn's master plan would assume he has far more political nous than he has ever seemed to display.

[RandBlade]

Many of that 40% did so because despite the horrendous, co-ordinated, media campaign of smears, lies and horse shit against Corbyn. By billionaire tax avoiding paying cunts with magic money trees in (warm tax avoiding climates conducive to their growth), who manipulate working class people to vote against their own interests.
Many people's negative view of Corbyn has been formed purely by the media.
Corbyn was arrested for campaigning against South African apartheid whilst Cameron was accepting paid trips for 'fact finding' missions.
bit rich to have accused Corbyn of supporting terrorism, when you had an actual fucking IRA terrorist, Maria Gatland, serving as a current Tory councilor.

Corbyn spent a lifetime supporting terrorism, so long as it was against Britain or America etc

When a Labour MP was murdered by a crazed man last year people from across all parties expressed sympathies and horror at such violence. While MPs were mourning the brutal murder of their colleagues in an IRA bomb, Jeremy Corbyn felt it appropriate to only days after the attack invite Sinn Fein into Parliament. He repeated that many times leading such notorious "right wing media outlets" as the Guardian to call him a fool Labour would be better off without. Here's a Guardian leader in 1996 after Corbyn once again invited Sinn Fein days after London was bombed by the IRA. It takes incredible naivety to believe the Guardian of all papers is a right wing Tory plot.



Gatland split with the IRA in 1972 and turned against them, co-operating with Special Branch. Corbyn remained an advocate for the IRA all his life and never until the dying days of the campaign expressed any remorse for any IRA violence like the brutal murder of two children in my hometown of Warrington or any of the other violence they inflicted.

[RandBlade]

It matters a great deal. Scottish parties (including the British offshoots) are used to coalitions; British ones are not. There's also more of a system for how to treat coalition partners.

Since 2010 the British Parliament has had a coalition for more time than the Scottish Parliament has.

[Steely Glint]

I mean it's true that Corbyn's obvious unsuitability to lead a bowling team, let alone a country, was what tempted May to roll the dice. But to suggest that this is part of Corbyn's master plan would assume he has far more political nous than he has ever seemed to display.

Corbyn's been a sitting MP for nearly as long as I've been alive. Obviously he has flaws, but I it's wrong to suggest he's entirely without Westminster Smarts. Probably the same mistake that's lead his opponents to underestimate him twice.

[Hazir]

I mean it's true that Corbyn's obvious unsuitability to lead a bowling team, let alone a country, was what tempted May to roll the dice. But to suggest that this is part of Corbyn's master plan would assume he has far more political nous than he has ever seemed to display.

Again. Saying 'May rolled the dice' is adding to fake news; there was a vote in Parliament with the support of more than 2/3 of the members. Corbyn is every bit as responsible for the general election as May.

Kensington of all places went Labour.

[Steely Glint]

May made the decision to trigger that vote. It 100% would not have happened without her.

[Loki]

Since 2010 the British Parliament has had a coalition for more time than the Scottish Parliament has.

Nice starting point. And I hear that coalition worked out well for the junior partner.

[Hazir]

May made the decision to trigger that vote. It 100% would not have happened without her.

And the elections would not have happened if Corbyn hadn't thrown his weight behind it. Pre-fixed parliament PM"s called elections, Theresa May is not one of them.

[wiggin]

Corbyn's been a sitting MP for nearly as long as I've been alive. Obviously he has flaws, but I it's wrong to suggest he's entirely without Westminster Smarts. Probably the same mistake that's lead his opponents to underestimate him twice.

There are plenty of Congressmen who continue to get elected even though they're obviously unsuited for public office; that's what you get in a constituency based system rather than a party list system. Continued persistence in one's district can be down to any number of factors, including your district being way off the median in terms of political leaning. It doesn't really prove anything about your political skill. Corbyn being elected head of Labour is part of a broader trend that has little to do with the political genius of these politicians.

Again. Saying 'May rolled the dice' is adding to fake news; there was a vote in Parliament with the support of more than 2/3 of the members. Corbyn is every bit as responsible for the general election as May.

Kensington of all places went Labour.

I think we can safely avoid using the term 'fake news' outside of genuine fake news, Hazir. And as Steely already mentioned, there is no way that Tories would have supported such a vote unless May had called for it. It is 100% due to her initiative. Yes, you are right that she needed the cooperation of some other members of the Commons, but it is clearly her initiative.

[Hazir]

You realize that needing a 2/3 majority meant she didn't just need the support of a few other members but about all Labour MP's ? 522 MP's voted for the polls, That is amost 200 members more than May had at her disposal. To be more precise, only 13 members voted against.

[Steely Glint]

There are plenty of Congressmen who continue to get elected even though they're obviously unsuited for public office; that's what you get in a constituency based system rather than a party list system. Continued persistence in one's district can be down to any number of factors, including your district being way off the median in terms of political leaning. It doesn't really prove anything about your political skill. Corbyn being elected head of Labour is part of a broader trend that has little to do with the political genius of these politicians.

Failure to learn a thing or two after 30 years+ in Westminster is stretching even his stubbornness a little, though.

And it's clear that his calculations about what was needed to do well in this election were a hell of a lot closer to the mark than May's. He was able to close the credibility gap a little with a fully costed manifesto, he was able to successfully identify and exploit voter concerns about Tory cuts, especially to the NHS and in the wake of the two terrorist attacks, police numbers and he was able to energise and turn out a substantial youth vote. He is an effective public speaker. Not quite up to Blair or Obama standards, but better than Brown or Milliband.

May, on the other hand, profoundly miscalculated on several levels:

* Decided to alienate an important part of the Tory base (old people) for no reason
* Assumed UKIP voters would all come over to the Tories - they didn't. Not after Corbyn said he'd carry out Brexit and end free movement.
* Didn't turn up for debates
* gave the impression that she was making a bee-line for a hard Brexit for no reason, even when it's not clear that's what a substantial number of Leave voters actually want and it certainly isn't what Remainers want (and there are 48% of us, remember)
* Just generally took a the electorate for granted
* over focused on Corbyn's character, IRA links and so forth.
* wasted campaign effort on the NE of England, where the Tories achieved a swing but still didn't actually gain seats.

So who really lacks political nous?

[Steely Glint]

And the elections would not have happened if Corbyn hadn't thrown his weight behind it. Pre-fixed parliament PM"s called elections, Theresa May is not one of them.

The Prime Minister can just call an election whenever they feel like it, and the opposition parties basically have to go along with it our else risk having the government benches making chicken noises every time the leader of the opposition rises to speak (this would actually happen).

[Hazir]

On the other hand, isn't trying to lure (back) UKIP voters what the Conservative Party has been about every since Cameron and his batch took over?

[Steely Glint]

Not all UKIP voters were former Tories, though.