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Thread: Where should we get our energy from?

  1. #1

    Default Where should we get our energy from?

    There've been some remarkable changes little spoken about in the energy market in the last decade. Personally I think the UK - and other nations - can and should seek to get close to 100% of its electricity consumption from 'green' means within the next decade, and we will ultimately be able to drive electric vehicles too which if they're consuming green electricity will transform our output of both greenhouse emissions and lead to much cleaner air for us to breath too.

    In the past decade wind has gone from providing 2% of our electricity to 20% of it, with the biggest increase in recent years. This summer we went through months without burning coal for the first time ever. New offshore wind farms now are without any subsidies cheaper to build, maintain and operate than any other new electricity output including fossil fuels. I would seek to escalate this. But wind has two problems, firstly if the wind drops output drops or stops, or gets too high then it can stop too, but that's less of an issue offshore than onshore and can be predicted quite accurately 48h in advance. Secondly it can't cope with spikes in demands.

    As a backup to cope with spikes and wind intermissions I would seek to build more tidal lagoons. Another natural resource, lagoons can produce electricity entirely on demand.

    Gas could be kept as an emergency backup but most of the time I don't think it will or should be needed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #2
    Fusion.

    Green alternatives until then.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  3. #3
    Is fusion any closer to being a reality rather than science fiction now than it was a decade ago?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #4
    As I recall scientific breakthrough has been achieved, engineering breakthrough is the main focus at present and economic breakthrough is a little way away yet.

    The last reading I did was a while ago so I'm not very up to date. wiggin had some good input here the last time fusion was discussed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  5. #5
    A quick jaunt over to Scientific American ...


    World’s Largest Nuclear Fusion Experiment Clears Milestone.

    The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor is set to launch operations in 2025.


    Achieving controlled fusion reactions that net more power than they take to generate, and at commercial scale, is seen as a potential answer to climate change. Fusion energy would eliminate the need for fossil fuels and solve the intermittency and reliability concerns inherent with renewable energy sources. The energy would be generated without the dangerous amounts of radiation that raises concerns about fission nuclear energy.

    Officials say the ITER nuclear fusion reactor is poised to be the most complicated piece of machinery ever built. It will contain the world’s largest superconducting magnets, needed to generate a magnetic field powerful enough to contain a plasma that will reach temperatures of 150 million degrees Celsius, about 10 times hotter than the center of the sun.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  6. #6
    Fusion seems to be something that is always just over the horizon. A theoretical launch of operations in 2025 would be good if it were achievable but we can eliminate the need for fossil fuels today already with existing clean technologies. ITER will launch in 2025 but the article suggests it will take another decade before it is then fully operational, 2035 is too far away for us to be relying upon it. Even if that works how long would it take to then replicate and build enough of those worldwide?

    Offshore wind has the potential to produce by 2040 11x the entire planets electrical production and work is escalating on clean ways to store energy too - and as vehicles switch to electricity we have a use for electricity generated overnight.

    Fusion would be great if it becomes viable, but I no longer think it is necessary. We have the technology to eliminate fossil fuels via other means. By the time fusion is ready I expect we at least in the UK and probably in other countries too will have already eliminated fossil fuel use.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #7
    "Planet's Primary, Alpha Centauri A, blasts unimaginable quantities of energy into space each instant, and virtually every joule of it is wasted entirely. Incomprehensible riches can be ours if we can but stretch our arms wide enough to dip from this eternal river of wealth." CEO Nwabudike Morgan, The Centauri Monopoly
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  8. #8
    I think if wind can cover the world's energy needs, we should use it. It would not surprise me, however, if there's some unforeseen effect from the cause of erecting a zillion wind turbines all over the place. Continuing to develop solar power is probably a good idea, just in case, to maintain diversification. There should also be a concerted long term effort to drive for greater energy efficiency in everything that consumes energy. And if energy storage capability isn't good enough to cover low-wind/ sun shortages, then back-up gas should be fine. Or maybe a continuing investment in fission power (safety, efficiency, miniaturization) is warranted, given that's the likely energy source for our upcoming off-world colonies on Luna and Mars. Heh...
    The Rules
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  9. #9
    I'm not sure why erecting turbines will create a major effect that erecting buildings doesn't.

    Solar works in some places better than others. In sunny places like Australia or California where power is needed for air conditioning in the summer then it can be a fantastic idea.

    In places like the UK which has no air conditioning and in which power demand peaks in the winter rather than the summer it is not a primary solution. Electricity consumption jumps massively in the winter here and peaks in January when it is getting dark by 4:15pm so PV modules are much less efficient even if they're better in the dark now than they used to be.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ed-kingdom-uk/
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I'm not sure why erecting turbines will create a major effect that erecting buildings doesn't.
    Me neither. Unforeseen.... You can't know until you know, but doing anything very large scale like this tends to have effects nobody ever anticipated.
    The Rules
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  11. #11
    Oil, coal, and hydro until we are long dead. Get over it. But keep dreaming.
    Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
    If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?

  12. #12
    Think in the future—but in our lifetimes—almost all of our power needs will be met by a diverse basket of renewables, in some places taking the form of a microgrid, but, in much of the developed world, coming from hydro, offshore wind & tidal. Wind turbines of various kinds—whether on fixed towers or flying high up in the air or whatever—are likely to become increasingly important in regions far from the sea. Solar is becoming increasingly useful even in countries that get less sun than the UK. While battery technology is indeed getting better I think that, a generation from now, we'll be using other forms of energy storage (eg. gravity-based). Alongside all this, the EU is forcing everyone to use crappy soviet vacuum cleaners and will no doubt soon eliminate our brave hero Dyson, paving the way for a dust-choked low power future. Until then, you can always burn democratic norms and institutions for fuel.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  13. #13
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    Shouldn't we focus a lot more on the waste in our consumption before we decide how much production of energy we need longterm? Those windparks in the sea sound very green but they are mostly very ugly. It should not be impossible to build homes that need no energy besides what can be generated on site with solar panels.
    Congratulations America

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Being View Post
    Oil, coal, and hydro until we are long dead. Get over it. But keep dreaming.

    Coal is dirtier and more expensive than cleaner energies now, why on Earth would we want to use that?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Being View Post
    Oil, coal, and hydro until we are long dead. Get over it. But keep dreaming.
    The Rules
    Copper- behave toward others to elicit treatment you would like (the manipulative rule)
    Gold- treat others how you would like them to treat you (the self regard rule)
    Platinum - treat others the way they would like to be treated (the PC rule)

  16. #16
    Its primary season so clearly the answer for the next 8 months is ethanol. :/

  17. #17
    A little bit from everything. It's an interesting question, for example, the focus on electric cars is quite high but the grid would probably not handle it well since it requires other strategies to be optimal.
    In that sense a hybrid solution is probably the way to go right now as far as cars go. Just to illustrate the current situation.
    Storage strategies is sort of a problem. Maybe each home should have some sort of battery but I'm not sure that is realistic with current battery tech either.
    It all requires a life style change in many places.

    The later would probably be a better question; but from my little corner pretty much pointless since the U.S. isn't ready to change and I have had enough of it's crappy fuck-off attitude.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    ....Until then, you can always burn democratic norms and institutions for fuel.
    Good one

  19. #19
    I think this question really matters quite a bit on the timescale we're talking about. If we look at RB's decade-ish scale, I think the energy mix should be something achievable: a greater proportion of renewables (mostly solar/wind), some modest grid scale storage to help smooth demand, less coal, and gas for peakers and cleaner burning fossil fuels. In some places, fission will provide some baseload, but I doubt substantial new capacity will ever be added with fission.

    The issue with the short term shifting more dramatically is two-fold: first, there's a lot of capacity that won't have aged out yet, so the economics of replacing it in favor of alternatives may not make much sense. Second, the issues of dealing with intermittent sources of power (e.g. solar/wind/etc.) should not be underestimated, and power markets/technology hasn't quite figured out how to handle it. We've already had massive swings in energy costs because of varying supply in some regions that have a high proportion of renewables, and this problem is only going to get worse. There are some clever solutions in the grid architecture that can help, and grid scale energy storage will eventually help, but neither set of technologies are mature.

    In the longer term (say, 50 years) I wouldn't be surprised if we were burning very little in the way of fossil fuels except for the occasional peaker plant to deal with crazy demand surges. We'll also have much more sophisticated grids that can balance loads and supply across huge and complex systems. I suspect we'll mostly rely on 'renewables' of one sort or another, though I don't really know what technology will win out - would orbital solar installations make the most sense? Or maybe offshore wind is the solution? Or remotely sited ground-based solar coupled with long range transmission lines? The exact shape of it is hard to figure out, but the basic decisions will be based on the competing priorities of capital cost, generation cost, transmission cost/losses, and volatility. By then the world will hopefully have adopted some better ways of internalizing environmental costs as well, which would help sort out which approach actually works best.

    Re: fusion I'm less convinced it will ever be more than a scientifically interesting sideshow. I'm certainly impressed with the various efforts to make fusion a reality - ITER, the NIF, various startups and national projects, etc. - but no one has even gotten to breakeven, let alone shown commercial feasibility. I am certain that with sufficient time and resources, a version of controlled fusion will be possible. I am far less certain that the capital required to build one of these (fantastically complex) plants will be justified when compared to other alternatives. It also suffers from the basic issue of fission plants, in that it will only be useful to provide baseload power and is not likely to be very flexible.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  20. #20
    Interesting to read your view on fusion. I'd always been led to believe it was the solution to all our energy needs once the tech had been realised on a large scale, in something like 30 to 50 years time.

    Just too much naïve hope previously which is only now being curtailed by just how prohibitively complex and expensive the hardware is maybe, now that the first full-scale projects are underway.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  21. #21
    Some further thought, if I lean on the word "should" in the thread title, and I indulge my own subjectivity, I get to a somewhat different conclusion.

    A. We should be transitioning our base energy sources to anything at all, within reason, that does not have CO2 as a waste product. This is to moderate the amount of warming that will occur and the length of time we have to deal with it.

    By within reason, I'm not thinking of steering clear of nuclear fission. I don't have a big problem with fission power - yes it creates some very dangerous and long-lived waste, but relatively speaking, that waste has a small footprint. Operational safety is another matter. If you're going to build your nuclear power plant in an earthquake prone region, on a tsunami prone coast line, well, you better make the damn thing durable enough to survive both.

    On the other hand, I don't think hydroelectric power is a very good idea. The reservoirs required have very large footprints upstream and the regulation of water flow impacts species and ecosystems dependent upon a given river's natural flow cycle. There are numerous examples of environmental and even public health consequences from river damming.

    And we also have yet to see the long term impacts of paving large areas with solar panels and creating forests of giant wind turbines. Yeah, the turbines are killing birds in large numbers, but that's not what I'm thinking about...

    B. Once we've cut CO2 production from the energy system, we should be transitioning to orbital power. The principle reason is to foster a healthy commercial space industry and drive humanity into a space-faring species, bring all my childhood sci-fi to life!

    That's what we should do, anyway.
    The Rules
    Copper- behave toward others to elicit treatment you would like (the manipulative rule)
    Gold- treat others how you would like them to treat you (the self regard rule)
    Platinum - treat others the way they would like to be treated (the PC rule)

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Re: fusion I'm less convinced it will ever be more than a scientifically interesting sideshow. I'm certainly impressed with the various efforts to make fusion a reality - ITER, the NIF, various startups and national projects, etc. - but no one has even gotten to breakeven, let alone shown commercial feasibility. I am certain that with sufficient time and resources, a version of controlled fusion will be possible. I am far less certain that the capital required to build one of these (fantastically complex) plants will be justified when compared to other alternatives. It also suffers from the basic issue of fission plants, in that it will only be useful to provide baseload power and is not likely to be very flexible.
    I think fusion's going to have a lot of applications if we ever get it working, but not necessarily for day to day grid use.

    I'm basically of the option that we should pretty much just stick solar panels on every available surface.
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    I think fusion's going to have a lot of applications if we ever get it working, but not necessarily for day to day grid use.

    I'm basically of the option that we should pretty much just stick solar panels on every available surface.
    Why? Solar doesn't work at night when we need electricity, or almost at all in winter when our demand is at its highest.

    You can monitor live information on what energy split the UK is using at any moment of time live at https://gridwatch.co.uk/ - and check intervals of 10 minutes, hourly, daily etc for the past 2 years there too.

    As I write at 10:30pm the UK is consuming 30.686 GW of electricity of which 0.001 GW is coming from Solar power.

    'Renewables' is 20% of which
    12% Wind
    7% Biomass
    1% Hydro
    0% Solar

    Nuclear is 22%
    CCGT [Gas] 40%
    Coal 3%

    Then from overseas
    France 7%
    Netherlands 3%
    Belgium 3%

    That only sums to 98% but I assume the other 2% is rounding errors.

    Even at midday Solar provided a small fraction of what we need, and its only generating even a single GW of power for 5 hours a day at this time of year when our demand is at its highest.

    Solar may work in Australia and California but its a false economy here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #24
    You can get home batteries that will store the power generated by solar panels for use at night. You can go and buy one right now.

    I don't know why you're quoting current figures like that's the maximum potential of solar when it's hardly used right now. The power output of an average home can be covered by about 15-20 solar panels, so just stick the fucking things everywhere then order a fuck ton of powerwalls off Telsa. Climate crisis solved. You're welcome, future generations.

    Re: Winter. Solar panels work off light, not heat. It still gets light in the winter, although the days are shorter. However, winter conditions are better for solar as the panels are adversely affected by heat. So swings and roundabouts. We should probably have other sources to cover any shortfall by solar should be the mainstay.
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  25. #25
    I like the idea of clean energy collectors hovering in the atmosphere or floating in oceans/waterways, and using batteries to store that power. Maybe in the future everyone will be their *own* micro-grid, and energy will be wearable (like a smart watch) and the batteries will be re-chargeable (not disposable) that won't create toxic waste by-products?

    I don't know how that could be scaled to things like airplanes, but that's only because my scientific imagination is limited to cartoons like The Jetsons or TV shows like Star Trek. I'm still waiting for my hover board!

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Timbuk2 View Post
    Interesting to read your view on fusion. I'd always been led to believe it was the solution to all our energy needs once the tech had been realised on a large scale, in something like 30 to 50 years time.

    Just too much naïve hope previously which is only now being curtailed by just how prohibitively complex and expensive the hardware is maybe, now that the first full-scale projects are underway.
    It's really just a question of what the use case is. For baseload power, fusion might - might - someday be a commercially viable option to replace fission or large scale fossil fuels. I doubt it'll ever be useful for variable production, which will require a much greater degree of flexibility. I can imagine there are other circumstances where it might be valuable as well - e.g. austere environments where alternatives are difficult to deploy, especially if it can be miniaturized to something manageable. But it is a very complicated technology and I am unsure it will ever be competitive with existing alternatives.

    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    You can get home batteries that will store the power generated by solar panels for use at night. You can go and buy one right now.

    I don't know why you're quoting current figures like that's the maximum potential of solar when it's hardly used right now. The power output of an average home can be covered by about 15-20 solar panels, so just stick the fucking things everywhere then order a fuck ton of powerwalls off Telsa. Climate crisis solved. You're welcome, future generations.

    Re: Winter. Solar panels work off light, not heat. It still gets light in the winter, although the days are shorter. However, winter conditions are better for solar as the panels are adversely affected by heat. So swings and roundabouts. We should probably have other sources to cover any shortfall by solar should be the mainstay.
    Steely, I know you're being intentionally hyperbolic, but there are downsides to using a suboptimal technology for an application, least of all economic ones. I am not enough of an expert to know how viable grid scale solar coupled with grid scale storage would be in the UK, but RB's right in principle that different regions are likely to find different mixes of energy production to be the most effective.

    Also, the environmental cost of that much storage capacity - using current technology - should not be underestimated. Even the raw material needs for that much solar coupled with the footprint should make people pause. This isn't to say it isn't a good option for some applications, but I doubt it's the single solution panacea your post might imply it is.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  27. #27
    The only reason solar is considered "sub-optimal" is because we haven't figured out the storage component. Yet.

    And we haven't figured out how to harness the solar energy we lose every day -- enough to cook a meal on the hood of a car, but it goes to waste.
    Last edited by GGT; 11-10-2019 at 04:00 AM.

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Steely, I know you're being intentionally hyperbolic, but there are downsides to using a suboptimal technology for an application, least of all economic ones.
    * Jared Harris in Chernobyl voice * We're using sub-optimal technology right now.

    Also, the environmental cost of that much storage capacity - using current technology - should not be underestimated.
    Pretty much any form of renewable requires storage capacity since they're all intermittent to one degree or another. Oh, except hydro but we all know the problems that can cause.

    The advantage solar has is that it is intermittent on a predictable schedule which can be planned around, whereas the current leading source of renewable energy in the UK - wind - is kinda random

    Even the raw material needs for that much solar coupled with the footprint should make people pause.
    I mean, if we're looking at secondary or tertiary costs like materials for construction or foot print we need to do that for all potential sources of power, not just solar. The thing about the costs for solar and other renewable sources is the cost is upfront, not on going (except for occasional replacement and maintenance, also true for fossil fuel and nuclear sources), so once it's paid, it's paid.
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  29. #29
    Iirc in the UK solar power generation capacity during the winter months is about 20-25% of what it is during the summer months. Not bad but not sufficient. For Northern and northwestern Europe, it may be good to decouple heating from other power needs, relying eg. ground source heat pumps and the like for heat, and investing in improving insulation.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  30. #30
    You can make solar panels much more efficient during winter than they currently are. Newer models absorb a broader range of light, include wavelengths which are more able to get through clouds. You can also make them so the track the suns position in the sky, so you don't have a problem with the sun being lower in the sky during winter. No getting around the shorter days, though.

    Given that we're also talking about making heavy use of storage here, what's relevant is the power capacity over the year not on any given day or season, and obviously you have to design around the fact that some times of the year and places are going to more productive than others - this is obviously true of all forms of renewable energy. I do, as I said, advocate having other sources as well.
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

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