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Thread: Zionuts

  1. #1051
    Former Soviet Union. Large numbers from Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and Uzbekistan (in addition to Russia). You're also missing Ethiopians.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  2. #1052
    That does not change my observation that the vast majority of immigrants to Israel come from today's Russia. And it appears as though Israel has reason to placate Russia in order to sustain the source as the example below shows.

    According to Israeli government figures, 20,246 Russians emigrated to Israel between January and July 2022, with numbers spiking from around 700 per month in February to over 3,000 in March. By contrast, in the whole of 2019 only 15,930 Russians emigrated to Israel.
    In July, the Russian Justice Ministry requested the liquidation of the Moscow branch of the Jewish Agency for Israel, a non-profit organisation that helps foreign Jews looking to move to Israel.
    Though the cases against the Jewish Agency formally relate to violations of Russian data protection laws, Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai in July accused Russia of trying to punish Israel for its position on Ukraine.

  3. #1053
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    That's a very long way of saying that Shas hasn't been in a government that excluded Likud since 2009 and UTJ since 1999.
    How many governments since 2009 have not included Likud? One, and it lasted for 18 months. And in that same time period they were excluded from one Likud led government.

    How many governments since 1999 have not included Likud, beyond the aforementioned Lapid-Bennett administration? Well, Barak in '99 is the only real one (and it included Shas and UTJ). The second half of the second Sharon administration kinda counts because he made a new party after the disengagement caused Likud to fracture, but the government included neither Shas or UTJ so I'm not sure how you'll spin it (is it a Likud government or not?) - but Shas/UTJ's exclusion from that government had everything to do with Shinui and nothing to do with whether it was a right or left wing government. And, of course, the Olmert government with Kadima (not Likud) and which included Shas but not UTJ.

    You're grasping for a signal that does not exist. It's hard to tell with such sparse data of course because Likud has been a factor in almost every government of the last 25 years. But it doesn't take a genius to watch Israeli politics and realize that Shas and UTJ are not on the typical right-left divide among major Israeli parties. They're religiously conservative, yes, but their issues have little to do with broader security issues, the Palestinian situation, or anything else. On economic issues, they want to make sure welfare payments and support for yeshivas continue (not exactly right wing fodder). On settlements, they only care about cheap housing - so they'll fight tooth and nail for e.g. Modiin Illit but couldn't care less about Ariel - or some ideological hilltop settlement. They want to preserve Haredi exemption from military service, which is also not exactly red blooded right wing rhetoric.

    Do you know what the biggest issue animating the Haredi parties was, recently? Disposable dishes/cutlery. The last government wanted to put in various rules and incentives to phase out the use of disposable dishes/utensils for environmental reasons, but the Haredim revolted because their sector uses a lot of super cheap disposable stuff and they viewed it as an attack on them. They only care about such parochial issues (as well as religion/state issues) but will sell their votes on everything else.

    Like I said, the majority is either hostile to the rule of law or doesn't deem it a priority. If this was untrue, Netanyahu wouldn't be prime minister.
    I will agree that the majority of current MKs in the Knesset are willing to suborn the checks and balances currently built into Israeli democracy for their political objectives. I think the likes of Ben Gvir and Smotrich view the Israeli Supreme Court as a wildly radical and activist, guilty of judicial overreach on a grand scale and legislating from the bench. They want to tear it down. Netanyahu just wants a get out of jail free card and damn the consequences; his party members are a mix of ideologues like Smotrich, those who have convinced themselves that this is actually 'pro democracy' by taking power out of the hands of unelected judges, and those who are just along for the ride. Shas and UTJ don't care much for the Supreme Court either way (though they aren't fans of the Supreme Court butting into religion/state issues) but will let Netanyahu get his way if they have their needs met. But that doesn't mean that a majority are 'hostile' to the rule of law, just that a sufficiently loud minority has convinced other people to go along for political expediency. It's really really bad, agreed, but not the same as your original claims about the median Israeli voter.

    Which parties will defect over rule of law issues? The ones with far right leaders? The ultra-orthodox? Or Likud? Because those are the only parties in the coalition.
    I never said they would defect over rule of law issues. I think the coalition will fall apart by centrifugal forces because it's clearly an alliance of convenience with no powerful figure who can actually hold it together. Netanyahu normally has an iron grip on his coalitions, but he clearly is barely keeping some semblance of control here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Being View Post
    It is my understanding that the vast majority of post 1960 immigrants to Israel come from Russia.
    As Loki already said, this is incorrect. Yes, there were a large number of immigrants who came to Israel from the FSU (including Russia but far from exclusively) in the 1990s, that has moderated in the last two decades. Now roughly similar numbers come from Russia and other Eastern European countries, with Ukraine being (I believe) the largest contributor of the latter group. I should also note that a substantial portion of these immigrants are not considered Jewish by the Israeli government, they just qualify for citizenship based on Jewish ancestry.

    Of course, there are other major sources of immigrants - in the 1960s a huge chunk came from N. Africa (Morocco et al), there have been substantial numbers from Ethiopia since the 1980s, and there are steady but smaller numbers from Western Europe (mostly France) and North America.

    All of these details aside, though, your fundamental assertion is laughable. Israel's Jewish population is sustained by the large part by birth rate, not immigration. Roughly 125,000 Jewish Israelis are born each year, and aliyah accounts for ~30,000 or less (in pre-Covid times; this dropped since 2020 and is only now coming back up). This is also balanced by somewhere around 5-15k Jewish Israelis who leave the country each year (there's some shuffling back and forth and I couldn't find solid numbers in a cursory google of the Israeli CBS). The point is that the net contribution of Jewish immigration to Jewish population growth is much smaller than natural birth rate. There's only a few hundred thousand aliyah eligible Jews left in Russia OR Ukraine, so even if all of them moved to Israel today it wouldn't dramatically change the demographic situation in Israel. The biggest reservoir of Jews left in the diaspora, by a huge margin, is in the United States. And getting those Jews to move to Israel in more than a trickle (a few thousand a year) is quite difficult because the US is, well, the US.

    Quote Originally Posted by Being View Post
    That does not change my observation that the vast majority of immigrants to Israel come from today's Russia. And it appears as though Israel has reason to placate Russia in order to sustain the source as the example below shows.
    All of my points above taken into consideration, it's obvious that Israel is interested in maintaining reasonably good relations with any country that has a substantial Jewish (and, for that matter, expatriate Israeli) population. Israel feels a sense of responsibility towards all Jews around the world, even those that are not (yet) citizens, and acts accordingly. But that applies to Russia and Ukraine equally. History has shown, however, that Israel is very willing to adopt a confrontational attitude towards Russia in service of its aspirations to protect the Jewish population of Russia - first off, they fought many wars with Soviet client states during the time of the USSR, and secondly they worked very hard to pressure the USSR in every way possible to allow Jewish emigration, especially from the mid-60s onward as more and more restrictions were placed on Soviet Jewry. Israel is not afraid to adopt a confrontational, rather than conciliatory attitude wrt Russia on the issue of Jewish immigration (and, frankly, it gets a lot of international sympathy).

    I doubt that they would tiptoe quite as much around Russia if they didn't have a much more salient issue driving their calculus, namely Russian controlled airspace on their northern border with growing presence of Iranian troops and proxy militias.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  4. #1054
    Quote Originally Posted by Being View Post
    That does not change my observation that the vast majority of immigrants to Israel come from today's Russia. And it appears as though Israel has reason to placate Russia in order to sustain the source as the example below shows.
    "Sustain the source" makes it sound like Russian Jews are some kind of water source

    The former Soviet Jews don't have a uniformly favorable relationship with Russia.

    As Wiggin mentions it's mostly about international relations, less about some kind of phantom domestic pro-Russian opinion.

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