Zionuts

[Loki]

Somehow everything always ends up working in his favour, even his weakness and idiocy.

With 200+ dead on the Israeli side, I expect total civilian casualties will number in the thousands before this settles down.

I wonder what impact—if any—this will have on the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement.

It's going to at least delay it. Especially if casualties end up in the thousands.

[Hazir]

I also think that casualties may end up in the thousands. Which may also be exactly what Hamas wants. It's easy to say Israel has the right to self defense (and I do). But it's predictable how it all is going to look in a few days. And then inevitably Israel will be accused of overreacting. Disregarding the fact that that's in reaction to an obvious provocation.

[Loki]

Netanyahu needs a good war, too. Though he'd probably prefer a less bloody one.

[Hazir]

This isn't going to be a 'good' war. It is obvious from the extreme violence that Hamas wants to provoke a big reaction. Big enough to pull Hezbollah into the fight. Netanyahu knows that, the mobilization isn't just for Gaza. War in the middle east also is in Putin's interest. For the simple reason that it interferes with the ability of the USA to support Ukraine. Wouldn't surprise me if Russia egged them on through their satraps in Tehran.

[Loki]

Given that Israel didn't see it coming, I wonder if Iran or Hezbollah got a heads up.

[Hazir]

Misinformation.

[LittleFuzzy]

I also think that casualties may end up in the thousands. Which may also be exactly what Hamas wants.

To the extent this isn't just the consequence of local conditions and politics in Gaza, high casualties is precisely what Hamas wants, yes. This is huge thing. . . by Hamas and occupied territory standards but it doesn't exactly accomplish much. Part of it comes from just a desire to make the Israelis hurt and suffer because they're rightfully and wrongfully blamed for how bad things are in Gaza and in retaliation for hurt inflicted by Israel. Part of it probably comes from local maneuvering within Hamas, to shore up influence or weaken rivals. Some may be from a realistic view of its "PR" impact or a drastically inflated view of what is directly accomplished. And the rest is because ensuring Israel keeps a heavy and violent boot on their neck makes all of Hamas' work in Gaza easier. Asymmetric Insurgency 101.

[Hazir]

I hear now on TV here that it's very possible that Hamas could pull this off with intelligence provided by Russia.

[Loki]

There's no way in hell Russia would destroy its relationship woth Israel just to help Hamas kill a bunch of Israeli civilians.

[wiggin]

Thanks to Netanyahu and his enablers, combat readiness and morale are the lowest they've been in who knows how long. There have been numerous warnings about the Palestinian situation being one giant powder keg. But Netanyahu chose to focus on ridding himself of domestic enemies, real or perceived.

I actually think this is not true. I think that there was a big intelligence failure here, but it probably has more to do with a focus on the ongoing low-level insurgency in the northern West Bank than any specific action of Netanyahu's. Shabak and Mossad are insulated from much of the political machinations going on, and the effect of recent refusal to serve by reservists would not yet be felt. This was a massive intelligence and security failure, but I don't think it's uniquely Netanyahu's fault.

I'm really staggered at the depths of the intelligence failure this represents. These attacks, clearly lovingly prepared, with multiple moving parts - co-ordinated air-land-sea attacks - would have involved significant preparation, planning and communications which should have left a fairly large intelligence footprint for Mossad or Shin-Bet or whomever has responsibility for the Palestinian territories to pick up on, but I guess not.

Indeed. Heads are going to roll after this mess is over.




I was offline for a holiday until an hour ago, but we heard snippets of news starting Saturday morning when a bunch of patrol cars started hanging out in my (very Jewish) neighborhood, and our regular armed security guard gave us updates. We spent the last two days deeply concerned for our family living in southern Israel, especially as more details trickled out. Fortunately, our immediate family is safe - my wife's uncle and his family were hiding in their shelter in Sderot until ~midday today as the gunmen in Sderot were hunted down, and they've now moved to family up north. My sister's town was hit by rockets and her building was damaged, but they were in their armored room and they're okay for now, although they're currently living in a bomb shelter. Our other family in the south have all checked in as safe. Of course, that is likely to change as many of our family/friends in Israel who are male and in their 20s and 30s have been called up for duty. I expect this is going to be a very bloody slog; the attacks were clearly intended to be a viciously inhumane as possible, and I really don't think there's any response that will have any effect short of clearing Gaza block by block.

I wonder if Hezbollah will mix it up or not. I suspect that if Israel has a back-channel to Hezbollah, they have suggested that this would be a very bad idea.

[Loki]

There's more than enough evidence that Netanyahu's autocratic campaign undermined military cohesion.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-ne...669824568eab1e

[wiggin]

There's more than enough evidence that Netanyahu's autocratic campaign undermined military cohesion.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-ne...669824568eab1e

Perhaps we have a different understanding of whether criticism of the political echelon by former intelligence and military officers dramatically affects 'combat readiness and morale', or that it's a particularly new phenomenon. I mean seriously, The Gatekeepers came out 11 years ago, and it wasn't a new phenomenon then.

A much stronger argument could be made that Hamas effectively carried out a deception operation since at least 2021 suggesting to Israeli policymakers that the conflict could be managed by easing conditions in Gaza with eg work permits and the like. Coupled with the military being distracted by the mess in the WB, it's much more straightforward and compelling than a nebulous 'the security services don't always agree with the PM' argument, especially when Bibi hasn't had a real government for years until a few months ago.

[Loki]

The point is that there's infighting between Netanyahu supporters and opponents within all ranks of the Israeli military. There are rumors of high-level intelligence officers leaving or being pushed out due to their opposition to Netanyahu. There's a reason countries are more likely to be invaded when internal cohesion is low. Not unique to Israel.

Not to mention that wannabe autocrats tend to foster group think at the top levels, which might have affected the quality of advice Netanyahu was getting.

[wiggin]

I'm not going to continue this highly theoretical and poorly informed exchange since neither of us have enough information to make a meaningful point. I am sure that Israel's internal divisions have contributed to this mess but I question that they are a major contributor.

[Steely Glint]

There's no way in hell Russia would destroy its relationship woth Israel just to help Hamas kill a bunch of Israeli civilians.

Because if there's one thing that you think of when you think of when you think of Putin's Russia, it's a rational foreign policy based on long-term strategic considerations and backed up by good information.

[Steely Glint]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-eas...orld_lead_pos2

Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.

Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.


Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political faction in Lebanon, they said.

[Loki]

Because if there's one thing that you think of when you think of when you think of Putin's Russia, it's a rational foreign policy based on long-term strategic considerations and backed up by good information.

Putin doesn't go after random countries. He has a decent relationship with Netanyahu. He throws some bones to Palestinians because it plays well in certain countries, but he's certainly not going to undermine Russia's interest to help Palestinians.

If this was planned in under 2 months, Israel's combat readiness is a true joke.

[Steely Glint]

Putin doesn't go after random countries.

Two possible reasons are retribution for Israeli aid to Ukraine, minor as it is, and as a favour or quid-pro-quo to Iran, their leading supplier of drones.

[wiggin]

Steely, I think there is little information to suggest Russian involvement at the moment, though Iran's fingerprints are obviously all over this. That isn't to say it's not possible, and Loki's arguments aren't foolproof here, but the most likely scenario does not have Russia involved in planning or aiding this attack.

[Steely Glint]

Steely, I think there is little information to suggest Russian involvement at the moment, though Iran's fingerprints are obviously all over this. That isn't to say it's not possible, and Loki's arguments aren't foolproof here, but the most likely scenario does not have Russia involved in planning or aiding this attack.

I agree there's no actual evidence that Russia is involved and certainly anyone in a position to actually know one way or another at this stage should probably have been doing something about it last week, or even earlier.

I was just objecting to the line of reasoning that says 'this would be stupid and counterproductive, so Russia wouldn't do it'.

[Loki]

Two possible reasons are retribution for Israeli aid to Ukraine, minor as it is, and as a favour or quid-pro-quo to Iran, their leading supplier of drones.

That's not his MO. Or he'd be declaring war on most of the world. He goes after countries he thinks should obey Russia based on their history. And he obviously hates NATO. He doesn't go out of his way to hurt other countries, especially ones he has decent relations with.

[Steely Glint]

That's not his MO. Or he'd be declaring war on most of the world. He goes after countries he thinks should obey Russia based on their history. And he obviously hates NATO. He doesn't go out of his way to hurt other countries, especially ones he has decent relations with.

You his therapist or something?

[Hazir]

There's no way in hell Russia would destroy its relationship woth Israel just to help Hamas kill a bunch of Israeli civilians.

They would if it helps their objectives in Ukraine. Armenia was thrown to the wolves also. And weapons to Ukraine were partially supplied from stocks earmarked for Israel.

[Loki]

They would if it helps their objectives in Ukraine. Armenia was thrown to the wolves also. And weapons to Ukraine were partially supplied from stocks earmarked for Israel.

Russia gains nothing from royally pissing off Israel, leading to Israel making Russia's life much more difficult in Syria and starting to help Ukraine in earnest. Hamas doesn't have artillery. Israel will need more advanced ammunition that what Ukraine is getting but in much lower quantities.

[Hazir]

Russia gains nothing from royally pissing off Israel, leading to Israel making Russia's life much more difficult in Syria and starting to help Ukraine in earnest. Hamas doesn't have artillery. Israel will need more advanced ammunition that what Ukraine is getting but in much lower quantities.

Russia gains everything if the USA has to redirect ammunition from Ukraine to Israel. There is an actual shortage in Ukraine already. This sideshow could put an end to their offensive.

[Aimless]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-eas...orld_lead_pos2

Surprisingly swift and firm pushback on this by US, Israeli and Iranian sources.

[Steely Glint]

The last I saw on the BBC's live feed, the US is no commenting it.

[wiggin]

The last I saw on the BBC's live feed, the US is no commenting it.

Kirby essentially said that Iran backs Hamas but they have no info either way if they were involved in direct planning and approval of this attack. Official Israeli line is no information yet on degree of Iran involvement, though some officials have indicated on background that they may have has a role in approving or even pushing for the attack, and that Hezbollah was teed up to possibly get involved.

Some Israeli analysts have suggested that the attack was far more 'successful' than anticipated (if your definition of success is a lot of murdered Jews) which has made Iran want to distance itself from culpability given the unprecedented Israeli mobilization. I suspect that whether they were involved or not, they have an incentive to keep a narrative of being hands off. Given the reluctance of Israeli or American sources to point the finger directly at Iran, it's likely that one of two things are true: either they don't have a smoking gun and don't want to be premature or they want to give Iran cover for not involving Hezbollah.

[Steely Glint]

Egyptian intelligence claims they warned Israel of 'something big'

Shades of 9/11

[wiggin]

Egyptian intelligence claims they warned Israel of 'something big'

Shades of 9/11

Flatly denied by PMO. Even if the Egyptians didn't say anything, though, this was a comprehensive intelligence and operational failure.




I've been finding the diverging responses in the Arab and Muslim world to be really interesting (and, often, depressing). For example, there's this from Mustafa Barghouti (a pretty middle of the road WB Palestinian voice):

https://nitter.net/FareedZakaria/sta...549593493988#m

Who does a not awful job of describing the Palestinian position re: the occupation, but simultaneously refuses to believe the evidence in front of his eyes about the systematic kidnapping, brutalization, rape, and murder of Israeli civilians on a scale hard to comprehend. It's also probably one of the best documented war crimes/crimes against humanity in modern history, since Hamas proudly broadcast it to the world. I can't tell if he's willfully blind or just a liar, but given that he's not a fan of Hamas, it's startling on how unwilling he is to countenance any criticism of any form of resistance as 'illegitimate', even if it's so manifestly barbaric.

Contrast this with the response in the Israeli Arab community (or Palestinian citizens of Israel or whatever you want to call them). Mansour Abbas (the head of the Arab party that was briefly in the Bennet-Gantz-Lapid government) reacted swiftly, decrying the violence and calling for restraint among Israeli Arabs in the coming days. Nas Daily (probably the most prominent Israeli Arab on social media) was openly appalled at the slaughter and decided to take the appellation Israeli-Palestinian (reversing the order of his previous identity), given that he doesn't actually want to live in a Palestinian government given the atrocities. Daniel Estrin of NPR interviewed a grieving Israeli Arab father in a hospital after his sister was gunned down while picking produce in the Gaza periphery - even after identifying herself as an Arab. He openly called for the destruction of Hamas and a no-holds-barred attack against Gaza.

This divergence between the WB Palestinian narrative and the Israeli Arab narrative is not new - though superficially both claim a Palestinian identity, those who are citizens of Israel know their Jewish neighbors much better and are keenly aware of the advantages of remaining part of the Jewish state - despite its many failings towards its Arab citizens. But rarely has the difference been so stark. I think the ferocity and inhumanity of the slaughter, its indiscriminate nature, has woken up the Israeli Arab sense of fellowship with their Jewish compatriots. It may be grudging and have many unsolved issues, but it is diametrically opposed to the mainstream Palestinian viewpoint.

Outside of the Middle East, I have also been startled. In the US, pro-Palestinian voices have been unwilling to condemn the Hamas atrocity (which obviously does not preclude condemning the broader ills of occupation or the nature of the Israeli response). The USCMO (and CAIR, probably its most well-known member) released a statement that ignored that it even existed, and placed the blame firmly on Israel. We've seen pro-Palestinian rallies across the Western world that openly justify the murder of hundreds as legitimate 'resistance' and often go so far as to describe the events of Saturday as a victory. (I won't touch on the uglier parts of these rallies, such as the chanting of 'Fuck the Jews' in Sydney and the like.) And on a local note, my city (and a number of academic circles) has been aghast at Harvard's absolute silence after a large number of student groups released a statement blaming Israel for the atrocity. It seems like orthodoxy in the pro-Palestinian movement outside of the Middle East has little room for dissent.

The response from Arab countries has also been varied. Countries with some sort of mutual recognition (e.g. UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, etc.) have offered fairly mealy-mouthed statements, but a far cry from your normal boilerplate about the evils of Zionist colonizers. There seems to be no love lost for the Iran-backed Hamas among much of the Arab world, though I'd not go so far as to say that anyone's conscience was shocked into doing the right thing by the calculated brutality - it seems more like political sense than anything else.



Lastly, some of the reaction on the side supportive of Israel was interesting as well. I saw the speeches given by several local politicians in Boston at the pro-Israel rally. Most of the speeches (by e.g. Governor Healey, Senator Warren, Michelle Wu) were pretty much as you'd expect, though I'll give Healey points for style. But Senator Markey provoked booing by calling for an immediate de-escalation and return to diplomacy. This isn't shocking - he previously had to protect himself from challengers on the left for not being adequately progressive, especially on Israel, so he was trying (and failing) to thread a needle that would protect his left flank and not piss off a crowd on Israelis and Jews who were very much Not In The Mood. And he even got pushback from his own colleague - a congressman in the delegation later directly addressed de-escalation as a fantasy at the moment, which got him quite the round of applause. But I'm relating this whole story because of a different speaker who was booed, and a very different result. The state treasurer (who literally no one could recognize and most people don't even know what she does) spoke, probably because she is Jewish and has ties to Israel. And she openly spoke of her support for the two-state solution. This was not received with a great amount of enthusiasm by part of the crowd, who have likely given up on the ashes of Oslo. But she directly addressed her detractors - proving her bona fides as a Zionist, speaking with passion about both how appalled she was at what had happened but also how she saw a path forward. And I think the crowd respected her take (although may or may not have agreed), because she brought her receipts. It gave me hope - people don't take well to political pandering and wishy-washiness a la Markey, but they're willing to listen to well-informed reasoning from someone who is as passionate as they are.

If a bunch of angry and grieving Israeli Jews can be convinced to give two states a hearing, and a bunch of Israeli Arabs can feel community with their Jewish neighbors, maybe we're not as screwed as we think we are. Palestinian narratives are still deeply troubling (to call it 'Zionuts' is just scratching the surface in the face of this reality) but there's still hope to turn things around.