Zionuts

[Loki]

What's weird about this level of delusion is that Israelis supporting the current war (and those supporting this war from abroad) have access to multiple sources of info, including from Israeli media. But they choose to limit their media intake an an ever dwindling set of sources that insist all is going well. At least Russians don't have an alternative to state media.

[Steely Glint]

I think you would only believe the war is going badly if you believe the purpose of the war is to 'hunt hamas'.

[Loki]

Both wiggin and the source above continue to insist that it's only a matter of time before Hamas is eliminated (or at least removed from power).

[Steely Glint]

The source above sees the destruction of Hamas as a instrumental goal in achieving the real objective: the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip. The article mentions Hamas in two contexts - historical, then and briefly at the end

The ongoing obliteration of Hamas, which terrorizes Palestinian Authority officials and many Gaza residents, may pave the way to the emergence of the proposed Sinai solution, if presented in a wise and discrete manner that conforms to the Middle East mentality.

It's certainly hard to see how Hamas would be in a position to stop this if it was agreed with Egypt (which it won't be, which is the reason why this article is pure fantasy but that's beside the point).

If the war is just stopped tomorrow (and Gaza is somehow rebuilt into a functional city again, which... I don't see how), then yeah, Hamas is pretty much coming back stronger than ever but I don't think that's how Israel sees this ending.

[Loki]

Israel knows this has to end within a month or two. American support (including in terms of arms) isn't going to last beyond that period.

[Hazir]

What's weird about this level of delusion is that Israelis supporting the current war (and those supporting this war from abroad) have access to multiple sources of info, including from Israeli media. But they choose to limit their media intake an an ever dwindling set of sources that insist all is going well. At least Russians don't have an alternative to state media.

It’s not like you are taking advantage of the sources accessible to you.

[Loki]

Care to tell me which credible sources I'm ignoring? Is it IDF discord servers sharing videos of dead Palestinians?

[Aimless]

What's weird about this level of delusion is that Israelis supporting the current war (and those supporting this war from abroad) have access to multiple sources of info, including from Israeli media. But they choose to limit their media intake an an ever dwindling set of sources that insist all is going well. At least Russians don't have an alternative to state media.

I'm not sure it's all that weird. Notwithstanding censorship (both govt-enforced and self-enforced) in Israeli media, we've seen over the past several decades that ordinary people are very good at insulating themselves within their culturally/socially/psychologically preferred media bubbles—with or without govt assistance.

Israel knows this has to end within a month or two. American support (including in terms of arms) isn't going to last beyond that period.

I think American support—both political and military—is likely to endure, even in the unlikely event of the Biden admin trying to impose conditions on arms used in the Gaza campaign. When the WB explodes, everyone will fall back into their customary roles. A partial withdrawal of military support may make the campaign more costly, but Israel can adjust to that. Personnel may be a bigger issue.

[Steely Glint]

Israel knows this has to end within a month or two. American support (including in terms of arms) isn't going to last beyond that period.

In late November, a UN estimate had 60% of the housing in the Gaza strip had been either damaged or destroyed. Another two months of this, unlikely there's much of anything left standing in Gaza. So what happens to the population? Where do they go?

[Loki]

I think American support—both political and military—is likely to endure, even in the unlikely event of the Biden admin trying to impose conditions on arms used in the Gaza campaign. When the WB explodes, everyone will fall back into their customary roles. A partial withdrawal of military support may make the campaign more costly, but Israel can adjust to that. Personnel may be a bigger issue.

Israel doesn't have an endless stock of ammunition. It's not getting more from the US once the death toll starts skyrocketing. And it's only a matter of time before we start seeing significant deaths from disease and starvation (in the high tens of thousands). Israel is probably 2 months away from the US abstaining from a UN resolution imposing an arms embargo on Israel. It's lucky that German support will prevent serious EU sanctions, but I'm guessing even German patience will run out eventually.

In late November, a UN estimate had 60% of the housing in the Gaza strip had been either damaged or destroyed. Another two months of this, unlikely there's much of anything left standing in Gaza. So what happens to the population? Where do they go?

From recent estimates I've seen, those numbers are relatively unchanged because the heaviest operations are still in the north. Something like 15% of the housing in central and southern Gaza is destroyed. See point above though. Though perhaps Israel is waiting for order to completely break down, which will lead to further attacks against humanitarian organizations that Israel will use to justify additional bombing.

[LittleFuzzy]

Israel doesn't have an endless stock of ammunition. It's not getting more from the US once the death toll starts skyrocketing.

I don't see it. Between the reflexive partisan opposition, the close margins in Congress, and the presence of die-hard pro-Israeli contingents on both sides of the aisle. . .

[Loki]

I don't see it. Between the reflexive partisan opposition, the close margins in Congress, and the presence of die-hard pro-Israeli contingents on both sides of the aisle. . .

Biden is already pissing off a significant contingent of Democrats. At some point, he's risking a real rebellion. And even the more moderate Democrats will risk serious primary challenges if this continues.

I honestly don't understand how we're not seeing widespread disease and hunger already. Once we start seeing photos of starving Palestinians, I can't see even the pro-Israeli groups maintaining a united front (not that Israel has to worry about the likes of AIPAC).

[Aimless]

Israel doesn't have an endless stock of ammunition. It's not getting more from the US once the death toll starts skyrocketing. And it's only a matter of time before we start seeing significant deaths from disease and starvation (in the high tens of thousands). Israel is probably 2 months away from the US abstaining from a UN resolution imposing an arms embargo on Israel. It's lucky that German support will prevent serious EU sanctions, but I'm guessing even German patience will run out eventually.



From recent estimates I've seen, those numbers are relatively unchanged because the heaviest operations are still in the north. Something like 15% of the housing in central and southern Gaza is destroyed. See point above though. Though perhaps Israel is waiting for order to completely break down, which will lead to further attacks against humanitarian organizations that Israel will use to justify additional bombing.

Israel has a domestic military industry capable of supporting a less intense but still devastating campaign in Gaza. That said, I just don't see a path to withdrawal of US military support. Neither Biden nor his advisors have the desire to deviate from statutory and policy commitments to support Israel with a wide range of military aid. Absent videos of Netanyahu leading IDF soldiers in a mass execution of captured Palestinian baby girls, I don't see the Biden admin trying to enforce any IHL red lines. As for withdrawing political support, I think it's reasonably clear Biden and his advisors believe their opponents would pounce on any opportunity to exploit a rift in Biden's relationship with Israel. This admin isn't gonna pick fights it doesn't know it can win. Biden can't walk away, so Netanyahu has him by his shriveled little balls.

[Loki]

Israel has a domestic military industry capable of supporting a less intense but still devastating campaign in Gaza. That said, I just don't see a path to withdrawal of US military support. Neither Biden nor his advisors have the desire to deviate from statutory and policy commitments to support Israel with a wide range of military aid. Absent videos of Netanyahu leading IDF soldiers in a mass execution of captured Palestinian baby girls, I don't see the Biden admin trying to enforce any IHL red lines. As for withdrawing political support, I think it's reasonably clear Biden and his advisors believe their opponents would pounce on any opportunity to exploit a rift in Biden's relationship with Israel. This admin isn't gonna pick fights it doesn't know it can win. Biden can't walk away, so Netanyahu has him by his shriveled little balls.

Domestic industry isn't capable of producing this amount of ammunition this quickly. At the very least, Israel will have to rely more and more on the kind of weaponry that will produce even heavier civilian casualties. And despite what you might think, that's not good for Israel's ability to maintain a semblance of international support.

American officials are the ones who've forced Netanyahu to the table multiple times already. I find it hard to believe that he'd do that unless there were some serious threats from the US side. Just because they're not being aired in public doesn't mean they're not being made.

[Hazir]

Care to tell me which credible sources I'm ignoring? Is it IDF discord servers sharing videos of dead Palestinians?

It?s not taking advantage that I was talking about. You have made up your mind about this whole situation only on the basis of hysterical emotions and preconceived notions of how this entirely unusual situation is going to work out. You have classified the Israeli actions, you are certain of the outcome and most of all you know for certain that Arabs are unable to see reason.

[Loki]

It?s not taking advantage that I was talking about. You have made up your mind about this whole situation only on the basis of hysterical emotions and preconceived notions of how this entirely unusual situation is going to work out. You have classified the Israeli actions, you are certain of the outcome and most of all you know for certain that Arabs are unable to see reason.

Hazir, I studied war for a living. These kind of wars don't end with a deradicalized population. They also don't end with the victor imposing a regime of its choice on the loser without engaging in a long-term occupation. So either Israel fully occupies Gaza for decades, with troops it doesn't have, or it gets Hamas or someone like Hamas. There is no path that leads to a different outcome. You can't just claim something else can happen without providing a convincing explanation of how that will occur. One that doesn't rely on fairytales about people who already loathed the other side waking up and deciding they want peace. Just like I wouldn't expect the Israelis to respond to 10/7 with anything short of a large-scale invasion of Gaza, regardless of their likelihood of success.

[LittleFuzzy]

Biden is already pissing off a significant contingent of Democrats. At some point, he's risking a real rebellion.

Just about the only way I can see the aid stopping is for Biden to be pushing for aid past the point of an actual Dem rebellion, voting in line with a plurality of the GOP who were already naturally in opposition just because it's a Dem president's policy. And Biden just isn't that much of an Israel-partisan himself.

And even the more moderate Democrats will risk serious primary challenges if this continues.

It might be enough to stir elements of the base into kicking out their incumbents. You're not going to try and claim an ongoing conflict in Gaza and/or the WB (or any foreign affairs in general) will be a major issue to the general electorate this cycle though, are you? Besides, as you pointed out to Aimless, pressure can be brought to bear on the Israeli government, Congress and the Oval Office don't need to turn that off to bring pressure to bear.

[Loki]

It might be enough to stir elements of the base into kicking out their incumbents. You're not going to try and claim an ongoing conflict in Gaza and/or the WB (or any foreign affairs in general) will be a major issue to the general electorate this cycle though, are you? Besides, as you pointed out to Aimless, pressure can be brought to bear on the Israeli government, Congress and the Oval Office don't need to turn that off to bring pressure to bear.

I think the left is already reluctantly supporting Biden. Many on the left are accustomed to undermining their own interests just to show their dedication to whichever cause they're passionate about. There's a real risk these people won't turn out to vote in 2024. This is particularly true of young people, who don't need much of an excuse to stay at home. Giving Israel a blank check doesn't get Biden any votes, while potentially getting important voting blocs to stay at home (i.e., think about what happens in Michigan and to a lesser extent, Virginia and Arizona). Taking a more even-handed approach might cost Biden the support of diehard Israeli-supporters, but they (the ones who normally vote Democrat) tend to live in states that aren't competitive in presidential elections.

[Hazir]

Hazir, I studied war for a living. These kind of wars don't end with a deradicalized population. They also don't end with the victor imposing a regime of its choice on the loser without engaging in a long-term occupation. So either Israel fully occupies Gaza for decades, with troops it doesn't have, or it gets Hamas or someone like Hamas. There is no path that leads to a different outcome. You can't just claim something else can happen without providing a convincing explanation of how that will occur. One that doesn't rely on fairytales about people who already loathed the other side waking up and deciding they want peace. Just like I wouldn't expect the Israelis to respond to 10/7 with anything short of a large-scale invasion of Gaza, regardless of their likelihood of success.

The facts that you?ve studied the subject makes it all the more remarkable that you are doing little more that echoing an extremely partisan narrative when the present war is concerned. Half-assed woke nonsense about war crimes and repetitive clap trap about how nothing will come of if, the main reason for that being that Arabs don’t learn nor evolve.

You’d look a lot smarter if you’d stop acting as if every time the conflict flares up, it’s just the same old same old again. Because this time, more likely than not, it’s different.

[LittleFuzzy]

Hazir, I studied war for a living. These kind of wars don't end with a deradicalized population. They also don't end with the victor imposing a regime of its choice on the loser without engaging in a long-term occupation. So either Israel fully occupies Gaza for decades, with troops it doesn't have, or it gets Hamas or someone like Hamas. There is no path that leads to a different outcome. You can't just claim something else can happen without providing a convincing explanation of how that will occur. One that doesn't rely on fairytales about people who already loathed the other side waking up and deciding they want peace. Just like I wouldn't expect the Israelis to respond to 10/7 with anything short of a large-scale invasion of Gaza, regardless of their likelihood of success.

I didn't study war for a living. But I did study it as the major component of interest for my degree. And I spent a couple of years after trying to understand how insurgencies coopt or gain control of their local populations (Hamas isn't actually an insurgency but there's a lot of drawing from the same or similar playbooks). And everything I learned says you're right. There certainly are other paths that could be taken that would lead to different outcomes. They're just not going to be taken by those involved.

Hazir, do you know what's NOT reasonable? It's NOT reasonable for Palestinians to blame Hamas for their 20000+ casualties and their destroyed homes and their being forced to flee. Not even if they did agree that Hamas started this fight and brought the Israeli's down on them. Because Israel is still the one doing all this to them and it doesn't actually have to. And it would take a very unreasonable and unusual Gazan to go that far in spreading the responsibility beyond Israel in the first place because people in general just aren't very understanding towards those who shoot at their families and destroy their homes! Even if they also hold Hamas responsible and even end up driving Hamas out, they are going to want replacements who will still express their hostility at Israel for Israel's choice to act as it has been, both now and for pretty much the entire last generation

[Loki]

I just can't get past people here assuming that those who are victims of mass political violence will become less extreme. It's literally the opposite of everything we know about such situations. You'd need some combination of an overwhelming Israeli victory (impossible without an occupation), extreme outside pressure to compromise, and no major outside actors pushing in the other direction. Things like authoritarian government, long history of conflict, little economic interdependence, lack of reliance on tax revenue (thanks to Iran and possibly some Arab states), and existing in a volatile region makes long-term peace less likely. You'd need some kind of a miracle to get anything other than future conflict. I don't really think this war will make things worse in terms of peace prospects, but that's only because that likelihood was 0% beforehand.

[Steely Glint]

It's also baffling that Israel and it's supporters can't and won't understand that the rage, pain and grief they felt in the aftermath of 7/10 is exactly the same emotion that drives Palestinian hatred of Israel.

I mean, I suppose it's really not that baffling - hardly an uncommon blindspot, historically speaking.

[Hazir]

I didn't study war for a living. But I did study it as the major component of interest for my degree. And I spent a couple of years after trying to understand how insurgencies coopt or gain control of their local populations (Hamas isn't actually an insurgency but there's a lot of drawing from the same or similar playbooks). And everything I learned says you're right. There certainly are other paths that could be taken that would lead to different outcomes. They're just not going to be taken by those involved.

Hazir, do you know what's NOT reasonable? It's NOT reasonable for Palestinians to blame Hamas for their 20000+ casualties and their destroyed homes and their being forced to flee. Not even if they did agree that Hamas started this fight and brought the Israeli's down on them. Because Israel is still the one doing all this to them and it doesn't actually have to. And it would take a very unreasonable and unusual Gazan to go that far in spreading the responsibility beyond Israel in the first place because people in general just aren't very understanding towards those who shoot at their families and destroy their homes! Even if they also hold Hamas responsible and even end up driving Hamas out, they are going to want replacements who will still express their hostility at Israel for Israel's choice to act as it has been, both now and for pretty much the entire last generation

And why does any of this matter? Did you really think you were going to make me see the light by repeating the same things other people aren't getting tired of saying?

The events of 7 october were never supposed to happen; a first world, nuclear power was the victim of a genocidal war crime. The pretend system of international law we have wasn't set up for this kind of event. It certainly wasn't set up to defend the strong against the weak. That has caused a lot of people to jump over the nature of what happened on 7 october back to their comfort zone of blaming the stronger side in the ensuing hot conflict. Israel, being the stronger side is told to show constraint in its reaction. Accusations of war crimes and genocide are thrown around like there's no tomorrow. We (some of us) are telling Israel (and by default ourselves) that even genocides and war crimes aren't reason to strike back indiscriminately. That sure sounds like the high ground doesn't it? It also is a blunt lie, because we know we wouldn't show any type of restraint if a genocidal war crime were inflicted upon us. We know it intrinsically, and we've said so explicitly for decades. So, unlike you and many others, I do not believe this is a new round in an old conflict. I also do not believe that the old rules still apply. I don't even know what the new rules are. I have a strong suspicion that the system of international law that has been built up over the period since WWII won't be a significant part of it.

You don't have to believe this, but then I suggest you to have a closer look at to whom that entire system belongs anyway and who are the people who want to see it destroyed.

[Aimless]

Domestic industry isn't capable of producing this amount of ammunition this quickly. At the very least, Israel will have to rely more and more on the kind of weaponry that will produce even heavier civilian casualties. And despite what you might think, that's not good for Israel's ability to maintain a semblance of international support.

If there were even the slightest hint of supply being cut off, domestic production would be ramped up, and the IDF would change tactics to compensate for a shortfall; in any event, by that time, they probably wouldn't be going through as much ammo etc as they are now. As for heavier civilian casualties, the weapons they're using now are already being used in ways that often make their ability to reduce civilian casualties irrelevant.

Israel's international standing has been historically low for ages, but that hasn't had a substantial impact on Israel's actions. That will continue to be the case so long as int'l disapproval isn't matched with punitive measures by western powers. Biden doesn't have a viable way to abrogate the US's political and statutory commitments to support Israel with military aid, nor can he afford to expend political capital on effective punitive measures in an election year. Germany will continue to behave as if unconditional support for Israel is their staatsr?son above all others. I guess I can see France pulling out a stronger show of disapproval, but not in any way that is likely to influence Israeli leadership. And the EU hasn't even been able to muster punitive measures against Hamas leaders; what could they possibly bring to bear against Israel's leaders in the near future, let alone against the Israeli state itself?

Tbc, I'm not committed to this pessimistic perspective. I'm just trying—and failing—to see promising ways of changing the situation from the outside.

American officials are the ones who've forced Netanyahu to the table multiple times already. I find it hard to believe that he'd do that unless there were some serious threats from the US side. Just because they're not being aired in public doesn't mean they're not being made.

I think Netanyahu has had a range of palatable options (from his perspective) and that it's been in his interest to give US diplomats some "wins", just as it is in Biden's interest to tout those wins as major accomplishments. I don't see Netanyahu wanting to trigger a broader regional war, with or without US support—no matter how US media has tried to frame the US's role in the war so far.

I just can't get past people here assuming that those who are victims of mass political violence will become less extreme. It's literally the opposite of everything we know about such situations.

It's also baffling that Israel and it's supporters can't and won't understand that the rage, pain and grief they felt in the aftermath of 7/10 is exactly the same emotion that drives Palestinian hatred of Israel.

I mean, I suppose it's really not that baffling - hardly an uncommon blindspot, historically speaking.

There are several mechanisms in play simultaneously. The dehumanization impulse. Brain worms. The desperate desire to belong to the contrarian and crotchety anti-woke contingent of society because at least it's a community of sorts. The internalization of abuser logic—the beatings will continue until morale improves; if you abuse people enough they'll learn to behave. And, of course:

Twitter Link

These things are beyond the reach of logical arguments. This is a culture war issue, not a policy issue.

[Aimless]

Dubious source and I can't vouch for the translation obv but I'm sure it looks better in the original Hebrew

Twitter Link

[Loki]

If there were even the slightest hint of supply being cut off, domestic production would be ramped up, and the IDF would change tactics to compensate for a shortfall; in any event, by that time, they probably wouldn't be going through as much ammo etc as they are now. As for heavier civilian casualties, the weapons they're using now are already being used in ways that often make their ability to reduce civilian casualties irrelevant.

That's not how arms production works. There are only so many factories capable of producing a given piece of ammunition. It takes time to retrofit other factories (or build new ones). Even then, a country the size of Israel would find it extremely difficult to produce enough ammunition for a non-stop large-scale military operation.

Israel's international standing has been historically low for ages, but that hasn't had a substantial impact on Israel's actions. That will continue to be the case so long as int'l disapproval isn't matched with punitive measures by western powers. Biden doesn't have a viable way to abrogate the US's political and statutory commitments to support Israel with military aid, nor can he afford to expend political capital on effective punitive measures in an election year. Germany will continue to behave as if unconditional support for Israel is their staatsr?son above all others. I guess I can see France pulling out a stronger show of disapproval, but not in any way that is likely to influence Israeli leadership. And the EU hasn't even been able to muster punitive measures against Hamas leaders; what could they possibly bring to bear against Israel's leaders in the near future, let alone against the Israeli state itself?

The US is under no statutory obligation to provide Israel with additional arms/ammunition. As for the EU: it's Israel's largest trading partner. There are many ways for the EU to hurt Israel's economy, even without resorting to outright sanctions. And at some point, there will be sanctions. Germany will find it more and more difficult to protect Israel, especially given Germany's own demographics.

I think Netanyahu has had a range of palatable options (from his perspective) and that it's been in his interest to give US diplomats some "wins", just as it is in Biden's interest to tout those wins as major accomplishments. I don't see Netanyahu wanting to trigger a broader regional war, with or without US support—no matter how US media has tried to frame the US's role in the war so far.

You're giving him too much credit. Especially since we have a report that he basically wanted an all-out war with Hezbollah before Biden stopped him.

[Steely Glint]

We've heard a lot of government adjacent figures advocating the ethnic cleansing of Gaza; ex-ministers, ex-senior military officers, random MPs, but this is the first time I've seen someone with the actual power to work towards it - and the prime minister no less - openly saying that this is part of Israel's post war plans for Gaza:

https://www.israelhayom.co.il/news/g...ticle/15002089

Google Translation:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed today (Monday) at the Likud faction meeting that he is working to bring about the voluntary immigration of Gaza residents to other countries. "Our problem is countries that are ready to absorb and we are working on it"

You're giving him too much credit.

And you're giving Biden to too much credit.

[Loki]

I'm sure Hamas made him say it. Or maybe it hired an imposter.

[Steely Glint]

Google Translate has joined Hamas.

[Loki]

It's not a "Biden issue" by the way. Very few in the US foreign policy establishment want to see this war expanded. Note how the US is doing the bare minimum to retaliate against Iranian proxies in Iraq or Yemen.