Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
Hazir, I studied war for a living. These kind of wars don't end with a deradicalized population. They also don't end with the victor imposing a regime of its choice on the loser without engaging in a long-term occupation. So either Israel fully occupies Gaza for decades, with troops it doesn't have, or it gets Hamas or someone like Hamas. There is no path that leads to a different outcome. You can't just claim something else can happen without providing a convincing explanation of how that will occur. One that doesn't rely on fairytales about people who already loathed the other side waking up and deciding they want peace. Just like I wouldn't expect the Israelis to respond to 10/7 with anything short of a large-scale invasion of Gaza, regardless of their likelihood of success.
I didn't study war for a living. But I did study it as the major component of interest for my degree. And I spent a couple of years after trying to understand how insurgencies coopt or gain control of their local populations (Hamas isn't actually an insurgency but there's a lot of drawing from the same or similar playbooks). And everything I learned says you're right. There certainly are other paths that could be taken that would lead to different outcomes. They're just not going to be taken by those involved.

Hazir, do you know what's NOT reasonable? It's NOT reasonable for Palestinians to blame Hamas for their 20000+ casualties and their destroyed homes and their being forced to flee. Not even if they did agree that Hamas started this fight and brought the Israeli's down on them. Because Israel is still the one doing all this to them and it doesn't actually have to. And it would take a very unreasonable and unusual Gazan to go that far in spreading the responsibility beyond Israel in the first place because people in general just aren't very understanding towards those who shoot at their families and destroy their homes! Even if they also hold Hamas responsible and even end up driving Hamas out, they are going to want replacements who will still express their hostility at Israel for Israel's choice to act as it has been, both now and for pretty much the entire last generation