Zionuts

[Hazir]

We can't be certain that they can. But at the moment we know we can be certain that they can't.

[Aimless]

Meanwhile, settlers are going on a rampage in the West Bank, killing (with IDF support) 51 Palestinians in the past few days.

https://theintercept.com/2023/10/13/...ans-west-bank/

It's not like all settlers are murderers, some of them are avid and very hands-on town planners

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...703360436.html

[Nessus]

What are the things YOU think Israel can do that will bring the cross-border violence to an end within 30 years time, given the demographic and economic environment in Gaza and between Gaza and Israel? Feel free to dream impossible things like the Israeli democracy actually being both functional and peace-oriented. But it has to remain Israel or you'll never get a dovish majority out of them. It also can't just turn the other cheek to violence in the intervening 30 years

I'm not Minx, but this seems like one of those situations where Eichmann smiles on the corner of whatever cloud Valhalla had for him

[Aimless]

Lord knows I'm not the most inventive person. I can easily be missing things. What are the things YOU think Israel can do that will bring the cross-border violence to an end within 30 years time, given the demographic and economic environment in Gaza and between Gaza and Israel?

If Israel stops killing—and facilitating the killing of—Gaza's residents tomorrow, it would drastically reduce the "cross-border violence" overnight.

The hell does anyone know about what the world will look like in 30 years' time, and what does it matter? Justice isn't a sim. We don't need a 30-year plan to stop murdering people today—stopping the systematic brutalization of an oppressed people is a moral imperative here and now, irrespective of what the political situation looks like in 30 years' time. You're letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

But it has to remain Israel

And what does that mean?

Right now, less than half the adult population is gainfully employed at all (and 1/3 of those that are working are "public" workers and most of the population is not able to self-support. What is your path that sees twice the number supported and occupied in a positive manner without getting embittered and radicalized by their conditions? Those are the people learning lessons and figuring out their futures right now and they're the people I see carrying the conflict forward. Do you think Gaza is actually capable of supporting them if Israel stops making certain it can't? Because I don't. There's certainly untapped potential there but enough to handle that boom?

Mate, you and I both know brutal, deadly oppression isn't a labor market policy; Israeli forces aren't destroying Palestinian families to keep unemployment down. Do I think the children of Gaza might be able to thrive, were they not stomped into the ground every day by violent oppressors intent on denying them their basic humanity? Yes, of course I do. With support and safety and freedom and education, today's abused children can thrive tomorrow. People can find ways to make life tolerable—wonderful, even—if they're allowed to; they are their own untapped potential. If your focus is on employment, they can find employment in Palestine, or in Israel, or anywhere else in the world. If your focus is on safeguarding human life and some basic human dignity, that's even easier. But clearly we don't mean the same thing when we speak of "fixing" the "situation".

[Loki]

According to people who would know such things (i.e., who do open source research on military conflicts), the Gaza hospital was highly unlikely to have been hit by Israel. Not that it will prevent such accusations.

[wiggin]

According to people who would know such things (i.e., who do open source research on military conflicts), the Gaza hospital was highly unlikely to have been hit by Israel. Not that it will prevent such accusations.

Honestly I think healthy skepticism was the appropriate response in the first hour or two after the explosion. Israel didn't immediately deny it was theirs (which was responsible) and given the number of munitions dropped in the last 1.5 weeks, mistakes happen. And no one - not Hamas, not PIJ, not Israel - have an incentive to intentionally carry out an attack like this.

It was fairly self evident after that time that it was a Palestinian rocket, though. Multiple bits of geolocated and timestamped video, Israeli government radar tracks, and a surprisingly specific attribution to PIJ, purportedly due to Israeli electronic surveillance. But by then everyone - media, NGOs, many governments - had swallowed the initial Hamas story, which is going to cause untold consequences. I suspect the risk of the conflict expanding just got a lot greater because people were not responsible enough to wait for more definitive attribution. It was wildly irresponsible, and the number of places that continue to present it as 'he said, she said', or even continue to publicly blame an Israeli airstrike is disheartening. I'd say there's probably a 90+% probability it was a failed rocket launch based on the data available this morning.

And all of this debate doesn't even really matter. Although people's narrative might change if it was an Israeli mistake or a Palestinian mistake, the fact of the matter is that lots of people appear to have been hurt or killed. It's awful.

[Being]

Time to discuss diamonds.

[Aimless]

Glad to hear the US is keeping the UN in check.

[Being]

Glad to hear the US is keeping the UN in check.

The security counsel should be disbanded. Or at a minimum, their veto power needs some checks and balance.

[Lewkowski]

The security counsel should be disbanded. Or at a minimum, their veto power needs some checks and balance.

Lmao it will never happen. I think you are under some weird delusional about America, our sovereignty is sacrosanct. If the entire world wanted something to happen and America didn't want it to, we aren't ever going to say "oh ok."

[Lewkowski]

"Anti-Zionism isn't antisemitism."

False story breaks about Israel destroying a hospital.

Jewish synagogue destroyed in retaliation (outside of Israel)

????

Not all anti-Israel sentiment is rooted in antisemitism but most of it around the world absolutely is.

[Aimless]

Creep

[Nessus]

Not all anti-Israel sentiment is rooted in antisemitism but most of it around the world absolutely is.

Agaa, but have you considered where the pro-semitism roots lie?

[LittleFuzzy]

If Israel stops killing?and facilitating the killing of?Gaza's residents tomorrow, it would drastically reduce the "cross-border violence" overnight.

Really? Care to back that up? Because AFAIK it's never been the case in the past. Loki, Wiggin, am I mistaken? Has violence out of Gaza against Israel ever precipitously dropped in the face of Israeli disengagement? I would have thought the major legitimate Hamas electoral victory over the PLO when Israel unilaterally disengaged and withdrew the settlers would have kinda put that notion to rest. Or are you facetiously only talking about Israeli violence?

The hell does anyone know about what the world will look like in 30 years' time, and what does it matter? Justice isn't a sim. We don't need a 30-year plan to stop murdering people today?stopping the systematic brutalization of an oppressed people is a moral imperative here and now, irrespective of what the political situation looks like in 30 years' time. You're letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. [/quote]

And I wasn't talking about what is happening today. Hamas did something terrible. Israel is doing something terrible in retaliation. This is a regular thing. I am not letting the perfect be anything. The phrase is "the enemy of good enough," not just good. For that aphorism to work at all, the good being discussed still needs to be sufficient to accomplish the desired goal. What's happening now is going to play out how it will. What will bring the repeating cycle to an END, though? What can Israel do that will stop attacks being carried out from the Gaza Strip? How can the festering hate and accompanying violence be resolved? Because the status quo from before this attack led to this attack and the subsequent Israel reprisal, as it has been doing for quite some time. From your prior response to me you must have some kind of idea, to so confidently assert that I only think it's impossible because I don't view the Palestinians as human beings. You acknowledge their humanity even if I apparently don't. So share that wisdom.

And what does that mean?

As just as it would be, the Palestian "right of return" isn't going to get accepted in Israel. It would change their state too much. And giving up on holding their ancient homeland as a bad idea and leaving the Middle East is clearly not gonna fly either, so voluntarily emigrating out en masse themselves is also off table even though it's the same thing as what I'd opined as the only actual resolution I can see.

Mate, you and I both know brutal, deadly oppression isn't a labor market policy

Of course not. Yet it significantly impacts the labor market anyway. Shocking.

Do I think the children of Gaza might be able to thrive, were they not stomped into the ground every day by violent oppressors intent on denying them their basic humanity? Yes, of course I do.

Why? What makes you think those children would end up thriving in their middle age if the Israeli boot was completely lifted tomorrow? Just what large-scale miracle of transformation have you seen somewhere else which would give rise to such a belief? Because I can point to example after example which shows what the long-term consequences are of the majority of a society being in crushing poverty and need and it doesn't come CLOSE to "thriving." It leads to strong-men, kleptocratic elites and not terribly much in the way of a fair and judicious rule of law. The most likely outcome, if they somehow stop viewing Israel as the enemy and a focus for hatred, is that as a society they turn on themselves. The territory is small enough that we likely wouldn't see competing "warlords" but we would see a major rise in gangs and continuing violent authoritarian civil suppression by Hamas or any replacement to them that might arise.

But clearly we don't mean the same thing when we speak of "fixing" the "situation".

I don't know about you. The context I provided, that I specifically referred to, was the security nightmare Israel created for itself. The humanitarian crisis is relatively simple to fix, or at least aleviate in the short term.

[Aimless]

sadly i can't read hebrew so idk whether this "we've invented a new thing called ethnic cleansing" joke is funnier than it seems

https://twitter.com/MisgavINS/status...83691574948036

[Hazir]

While I am not entirely blind to the fact that the Israeli propaganda machine is working at full force, it is remarkable that Hamas preferred to build missiles with water pipes than using them for their intended purpose. Which might have given Gaza like.. working water independent from Israel.

[Aimless]

Really? Care to back that up? Because AFAIK it's never been the case in the past. Loki, Wiggin, am I mistaken? Has violence out of Gaza against Israel ever precipitously dropped in the face of Israeli disengagement? I would have thought the major legitimate Hamas electoral victory over the PLO when Israel unilaterally disengaged and withdrew the settlers would have kinda put that notion to rest. Or are you facetiously only talking about Israeli violence?

There's nothing facetious about it, but thank you for the very effective illustration of my point about Palestinian lives. You didn't specify which violence you wanted to address—you just assumed that only violence in one direction was of relevance. The most deadly "cross-border violence" in the area has been the Israeli state's attacks on Gaza, for longer than you've been alive. That remains the case today, and, if you're concerned with saving human lives, terminating the current Israeli campaign of ethnic cleansing in Gaza would drastically reduce the deadly "cross-border violence" overnight.

And I wasn't talking about what is happening today. Hamas did something terrible. Israel is doing something terrible in retaliation. This is a regular thing.

Hamas is a terrorist organization; Israel is "the Middle East's only democracy". There's nothing regular about a democracy committing crimes against humanity to punish innocent civilians for the actions of terrorists, though it may seem so in primitive, barbaric North American nations.

The phrase is "the enemy of good enough," not just good.

It really isn't.

For that aphorism to work at all, the good being discussed still needs to be sufficient to accomplish the desired goal. What's happening now is going to play out how it will. What will bring the repeating cycle to an END, though? What can Israel do that will stop attacks being carried out from the Gaza Strip? How can the festering hate and accompanying violence be resolved? Because the status quo from before this attack led to this attack and the subsequent Israel reprisal, as it has been doing for quite some time. From your prior response to me you must have some kind of idea, to so confidently assert that I only think it's impossible because I don't view the Palestinians as human beings. You acknowledge their humanity even if I apparently don't. So share that wisdom.

Even under occupation, the "status quo" was anything but—Israeli policy wrt Gaza has varied over time, as has the situation in Gaza. So, for starters, prior to the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, there would have been a case for reverting to less grotesque policies. For example, the Israeli state could have opted to follow international law governing the obligations of occupying powers, or decided to lift the illegal siege. You can't start with the premise that we must accept a democratic nation engaging in illegal acts against a wholly subjugated populace. But, if you must, then there are other tolerable equilibria short of a final solution.

As just as it would be, the Palestian "right of return" isn't going to get accepted in Israel. It would change their state too much. And giving up on holding their ancient homeland as a bad idea and leaving the Middle East is clearly not gonna fly either, so voluntarily emigrating out en masse themselves is also off table even though it's the same thing as what I'd opined as the only actual resolution I can see.

Right of return? How about trying to first clear the low, low bar of not subjecting people to a system of apartheid within the borders of the Middle East's only democracy?

Why? What makes you think those children would end up thriving in their middle age if the Israeli boot was completely lifted tomorrow? Just what large-scale miracle of transformation have you seen somewhere else which would give rise to such a belief? Because I can point to example after example which shows what the long-term consequences are of the majority of a society being in crushing poverty and need and it doesn't come CLOSE to "thriving." It leads to strong-men, kleptocratic elites and not terribly much in the way of a fair and judicious rule of law. The most likely outcome, if they somehow stop viewing Israel as the enemy and a focus for hatred, is that as a society they turn on themselves. The territory is small enough that we likely wouldn't see competing "warlords" but we would see a major rise in gangs and continuing violent authoritarian civil suppression by Hamas or any replacement to them that might arise.

If there is one thing we can learn from the recent history of our world, it is that even the poorest populations can rise out of poverty, given peace and freedom. Over the course of your life, the global share of people living in extreme poverty has plummeted by more than half. I'm sure you can point to "example after example", and I can point to counterexample after counterexample, but we don't need anecdata—we have systematically collected global data. The story of our generation is that people can and do rise out of poverty, if they're allowed to.

I don't know about you. The context I provided, that I specifically referred to, was the security nightmare Israel created for itself. The humanitarian crisis is relatively simple to fix, or at least aleviate in the short term.

Then let's work on that. You can't fix anything if everyone's dead, unless you consider death a fix.

[LittleFuzzy]

There's nothing facetious about it, but thank you for the very effective illustration of my point about Palestinian lives. You didn't specify which violence you wanted to address—you just assumed that only violence in one direction was of relevance. The most deadly "cross-border violence" in the area has been the Israeli state's attacks on Gaza, for longer than you've been alive. That remains the case today, and, if you're concerned with saving human lives, terminating the current Israeli campaign of ethnic cleansing in Gaza would drastically reduce the deadly "cross-border violence" overnight.

No I did not. That's why "on BOTH their houses" But it has to stop for BOTH sides. Neither is EVER going to just turn the other cheek and accept attacks from the other as the price for being there. And as Israel's violence tends to be much more concentrated and episodic, it provides a perfectly good example that your "thesis" doesn't work for both sides. I would again point out that you decided to GGT over my posts and respond to something completely different from what I actually said.

Hamas is a terrorist organization; Israel is "the Middle East's only democracy". There's nothing regular about a democracy committing crimes against humanity to punish innocent civilians for the actions of terrorists, though it may seem so in primitive, barbaric North American nations.

Hamas was duly and properly elected in a fair election. It may be a terrorist organization too, but it is the "legitimate governor" of the Gaza Strip today. And insisting on that double standard just lets Hamas and those that choose and chose it off the hook for their own contributions. It is nothing but legerdemain allowing you to say shrug off what is done by one of those sides. The Palestinians living in Gaza aren't as helpless against Hamas as you choose to pretend. And you can kindly stop bleating about "but they're children" too since Hamas has a strong youth recruitment and training strategy. You think I say "a plague on both their houses" but don't really mean it about Israel. I think you say Hamas is a terrorist organization but don't really mean it.

It really isn't.

Huh. Apparently the original French formulation wasn't what I thought. Learned something new. Doesn't matter, the principle holds. The "good" being achieved still has to sufficient to achieve a goal. I said security. You say "well, as long as the Palestinians aren't the ones being attacked. . ."

Even under occupation, the "status quo" was anything but—Israeli policy wrt Gaza has varied over time, as has the situation in Gaza. So, for starters, prior to the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, there would have been a case for reverting to less grotesque policies. For example, the Israeli state could have opted to follow international law governing the obligations of occupying powers, or decided to lift the illegal siege. You can't start with the premise that we must accept a democratic nation engaging in illegal acts against a wholly subjugated populace. But, if you must, then there are other tolerable equilibria short of a final solution.

Both have varied over time, yes. But they still led us here. Lifting the blockade would certainly be one necessary move. Interestingly, their withdrawal under Sharon was not, there were paths towards improvement even under an occupation. Too much of an investment for the Israelis to care though, they were and are markedly indifferent to conditions in Gaza and have been reaping the consequences. I'm not hearing anything but vague assertions that "something is possible" from you, though, beyond ending the blockade. That's not exactly persuasive nor explanatory.

Right of return? How about trying to first clear the low, low bar of not subjecting people to a system of apartheid within the borders of the Middle East's only democracy?

I invited you to the flood, Aimless. You are free to place the bar where it needs to be at to establish a secure and peaceful context for both sides. But you're not interested in that (probably you don't know how to get it anymore than I do, which makes us no different from everyone else who has flailed and failed at it over the years), instead preferring to spar and jab at me because you don't like that I'm ok with the people of both sides reaping the consequences of their adopted interactions

If there is one thing we can learn from the recent history of our world, it is that even the poorest populations can rise out of poverty, given peace and freedom.

Over the course of your life, the global share of people living in extreme poverty has plummeted by more than half. I'm sure you can point to "example after example", and I can point to counterexample after counterexample, but we don't need anecdata—we have systematically collected global data. The story of our generation is that people can and do rise out of poverty, if they're allowed to.

Sure, it can happen. But that "peace and freedom" does need to be there and conditions in Gaza Strip even without Israeli measures keeping it down like the blockade don't fit that standard. Conditions on the West Bank seem like they would or could allow for it easily enough even being stateless but Gaza. . .

You talk about "peace and freedom." Well, part of that freedom you will find in EVERY SINGLE ONE of the "anecdata" for success that you just dismiss in favor of "global data" is free movement of labor. The "open" border with Egypt allows what, a few hundred people to cross a day, mostly as an opportunity for graft? The Gazans would still be stateless, still be under the "governance" of the Hamas they voted in. NONE of the nearby states are letting them emigrate and resettle in their lands. I will confess I don't know what the situation may be or could become betwixt transitioning between Gaza and the West Bank so there may be an avenue there. . .

Then let's work on that. You can't fix anything if everyone's dead, unless you consider death a fix.

It's not a good resolution but it IS a resolution. . .
But no. Let's not. I decline your generous offer to drop the only issue I have the slightest interest in on the general topic in favor of your preferred issue of voyeuristic humanitarian gnashing and angsting about just WHAT latest fuckery the two parties are doing to each other now. I didn't care when I saw headlines about "dozens of gunmen" breaking through into Israel, I didn't care when I saw headlines about 1400+dead, and decided to just stop looking at headlines since I knew I wouldn't care about what was going to happen as a consequence of those earlier ones either. The people on either side could have avoided this, neither set chose to.

[Loki]

Loki, it appears that settlers have murdered on the order of five Palestinians. This is wrong and they should be imprisoned. Personally I think Esh Kodesh should be dismantled as well, but I feel that way about all of the outposts. That being said, it's a notorious outpost for price tag attacks and there's an even stronger argument to dismantle it.

I have not seen evidence that the broader number of Palestinian casualties in the West Bank are due to settler action, they appear to be due to IDF activity related to eg massive arrest raids and heightened levels of caution. There is zero evidence that the IDF is coordinating its raids or activity in the WB with outposts.

Palestinian residents of the West Bank say that while the world's attention is drawn to the unfolding disaster in Gaza, Israeli settlers are taking advantage by entering villages and expelling, and even killing, Palestinian civilians.

In at least three cases, according to video footage or eyewitness testimony from villagers, the settlers have been wearing military uniforms or accompanied by the Israeli military in their attacks.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67173344

Israel is playing a dangerous game, especially with the air strike in the West Bank. It's quite clear that the far right ministers are basically doing what they always wanted to do but knew they couldn't get away with in the past.

[Being]

Supporting the Israeli government is supporting Russia's war in Ukraine. Why does the USA have such conflicting policies?

[Loki]

Minus the part where Russia supports the Palestinians and Ukraine has a slight tilt toward Israel.

[Being]

All talk and no sanctions.

[Aimless]

Netanyahu has declared a second war of independence

[Loki]

A five-year occupation of a large chunk of Gaza. They're just going for maximalist goals because they can get away with it (maybe). But those goals are completely unrelated to making Israel safer.

Twitter Link

[Aimless]

There's no maybe. It will happen and there will be no accountability.

[Loki]

There's a reason these wars usually last a few weeks. Not sure Israel can maintain any level of international backing once this drags on for more than a few months. We'd probably start seeing largescale protests throughout Europe and the Muslim world. Which would make it very difficult for those governments to stay silent.

[Loki]

Twitter Link

The longer this lasts, the more the split will go in the wrong direction for Israel.

[Aimless]

There's a reason these wars usually last a few weeks. Not sure Israel can maintain any level of international backing once this drags on for more than a few months. We'd probably start seeing largescale protests throughout Europe and the Muslim world. Which would make it very difficult for those governments to stay silent.

It doesn't feel like one of those wars, and every Israeli govt. in my lifetime has been effective at fielding international criticism. All our governments possess the innate instinct to roll over in the face of a fait accompli, no matter how grotesque. I don't think a war will last five years, but the repression described will last much longer than five years—and, again, nobody will be held accountable for any crimes committed against Palestinians in Gaza or in the West Bank.

Twitter Link

The longer this lasts, the more the split will go in the wrong direction for Israel.

Was surprised to see this in mainstream American news:

Twitter Link

[Aimless]

Entire villages are being cleared in the West Bank. Everyone responsible belongs on global sanctions lists.

[Loki]

Meanwhile, in Russia:

Twitter Link

Make sure you go through the whole thread, including the one where a Russian is looking for Jews in interesting places.