Zionuts

[wiggin]

With the factors you outlined? Beats me. But of the four major factors you listed, I think one (Israeli war goals) is very open to question and another (the timeline) is almost entirely Israel's to control as it chooses. Which provides room for changing the tactics and outlined operation to one which, at a minimum, reduces the civilian casualties down from massive to merely significant.

Goals of the war are fairly self-evident given the strategic situation; if Hamas maintains control over Gaza, the strategic situation will be unchanged. Deterrence and bribery are clearly unworkable. And the timeline is entirely up to the United States, not up to Israel. Israel has gotten far more leeway since Oct 7 but there's clear signaling from the administration that major combat needs to be over by early January. Given the strains to Israel's economy from 300k reservist mobilization and on-and-off again cancelled school, they honestly don't have much time beyond the US timeline anyway.