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Thread: NOAA Artificially Creates 0.6 degree Warming Trend

  1. #1

    Default NOAA Artificially Creates 0.6 degree Warming Trend

    http://www.bluegrasspundit.com/2010/...-adjusted.html

    By 1990, NOAA deleted 4500 of the 6000 temperature data stations they were using to create their temperature record. The number of US stations was down to a low of 136 as of 2007. This is a 90% reduction. An analysis of the deleted data sets compared to the ones NOAA kept indicates they created a +0.6°C warming in U.S. temperature history. NOAA kept the lower altitude data sets near the urban heat islands of cities.

    From American Thinker:
    Although satellite temperature measurements have been available since 1978, most global temperature analyses still rely on data captured from land-based thermometers, scattered more or less about the planet. It is that data which NOAA receives and disseminates – although not before performing some sleight-of-hand on it.

    Smith has done much of the heavy lifting involved in analyzing the NOAA/GISS data and software, and he chronicles his often frustrating experiences at his fascinating website. There, detail-seekers will find plenty to satisfy, divided into easily-navigated sections -- some designed specifically for us “geeks,” but most readily approachable to readers of all technical strata.

    Perhaps the key point discovered by Smith was that by 1990, NOAA had deleted from its datasets all but 1,500 of the 6,000 thermometers in service around the globe.

    Now, 75% represents quite a drop in sampling population, particularly considering that these stations provide the readings used to compile both the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) datasets. These are the same datasets, incidentally, which serve as primary sources of temperature data not only for climate researchers and universities worldwide, but also for the many international agencies using the data to create analytical temperature anomaly maps and charts.

    Yet as disturbing as the number of dropped stations was, it is the nature of NOAA’s “selection bias” that Smith found infinitely more troubling.

    It seems that stations placed in historically cooler, rural areas of higher latitude and elevation were scrapped from the data series in favor of more urban locales at lower latitudes and elevations. Consequently, post-1990 readings have been biased to the warm side not only by selective geographic location, but also by the anthropogenic heating influence of a phenomenon known as the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI).


    For example, Canada’s reporting stations dropped from 496 in 1989 to 44 in 1991, with the percentage of stations at lower elevations tripling while the numbers of those at higher elevations dropped to one. That’s right: As Smith wrote in his blog, they left “one thermometer for everything north of LAT 65.” And that one resides in a place called Eureka, which has been described as “The Garden Spot of the Arctic” due to its unusually moderate summers.

    Smith also discovered that in California, only four stations remain – one in San Francisco and three in Southern L.A. near the beach – and he rightly observed that
    It is certainly impossible to compare it with the past record that had thermometers in the snowy mountains. So we can have no idea if California is warming or cooling by looking at the USHCN data set or the GHCN data set.
    That’s because the baseline temperatures to which current readings are compared were a true averaging of both warmer and cooler locations. And comparing these historic true averages to contemporary false averages – which have had the lower end of their numbers intentionally stripped out – will always yield a warming trend, even when temperatures have actually dropped.
    Interesting. I wonder why they didn't think of that when they started getting rid of temperature data stations... oh, wait, they probably did.
    Last edited by CedarPointer; 01-24-2010 at 08:21 PM. Reason: Fixed to add the first three paragraphs, which I forgot to post originally. Sorry!

  2. #2
    W00t. Amazing. Why wasn't this noticed earlier? Like, maybe... I don't know 2 decades ago?

  3. #3
    This is the kinda claim you want to have verified by a bunch of people...

    What perplexes me is this: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/

    The middle graph shows number of sensors/stations going down, but the graph on the right shows coverage remaining constant.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    This is the kinda claim you want to have verified by a bunch of people...

    What perplexes me is this: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/

    The middle graph shows number of sensors/stations going down, but the graph on the right shows coverage remaining constant.
    Well, the explanation says "the percent of hemispheric area located within 1200km of a reporting station.". Better spreading, I suppose.

    But yeah, That is pretty interesting. I'd have to know more about how they measure and compare temperatures to say more about it. Don't they use more satellite date these days, which provide better coverage?
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  5. #5
    Take into fact as well that over the years NOAA/National Weather Service had to remove older stations due to buildings being built around the devices or lack of funding. However with this, it I recall correctly its either 50, 75 or 100 years before those little weather polling stations are as well added into the data sets. It's to "prevent anomalies" in the averages. Which is what I feel happened here. I think the USGS does the same for river/creek data and flood data.

  6. #6
    Can you explain the staggered insertion of station data?

    What I also don't get is how decreased number of stations = coverage remains the same. Are the stations somehow able to measure more locations from one station?

  7. #7
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    If the stations used to be close to each other, they would have a lot of overlap, so if you decrease the number coverage can remain the same.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  8. #8
    And equipment can improve over time, etc
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  9. #9
    Indeed, but has the ability of a thermometer to read temperatures across distances improved? I just don't get the 1200k range...

  10. #10
    I don't see how they can say that having one reporting station within an area of 745 miles is just as good coverage as having two or three within the same area, especially if the remaining stations are in the urban heat islands referenced in the original blog posting. For example, it's currently 50 degrees where I live, 38 degrees at Kings Island, and 25 degrees south of that. That's a pretty big difference, and, if I were averaging them, it would end up being 37 degrees. But, the three locations are within NOAA's good coverage definiton, and, if I were to throw out the two southern locations, my daily temperature southwest Ohio would be 50 degrees, or 13 degrees warmer.

  11. #11
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    True. but you always miss a LOT of places anyway. That's why it's mostly done with satellites now, AFAIK. Probably that's also why these sensors were dumped, too.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Original Blog Post
    By 1990, NOAA deleted 4500 of the 6000 temperature data stations they were using to create their temperature record. The number of US stations was down to a low of 136 as of 2007. This is a 90% reduction. An analysis of the deleted data sets compared to the ones NOAA kept indicates they created a +0.6°C warming in U.S. temperature history. NOAA kept the lower altitude data sets near the urban heat islands of cities.
    This paragraph (which I forgot to paste into the first post... whoops! fixed now.), especially the bolded sentence, seems to indicate that the sensors still exist but aren't used in the record. I'm not 100% sure about the accuracy of the original blog post, but it's certainly important if true.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by CedarPointer View Post
    This paragraph (which I forgot to paste into the first post... whoops! fixed now.), especially the bolded sentence, seems to indicate that the sensors still exist but aren't used in the record. I'm not 100% sure about the accuracy of the original blog post, but it's certainly important if true.
    Blogs FTW!

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  14. #14
    i'd love to see an official response...

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