I take it you have no interest in an honest discussion of this topic?
I take it you have no interest in an honest discussion of this topic?
Hope is the denial of reality
Wait, which thread is this again?
Rand, you're in a food service sector that attracts mostly young-ish unskilled workers for minimum wage. Right? You can't really compare your experiences hiring people, those from the Jobs Center, those who don't want to lose benefits....to overall un/employment. Of the 8 millions jobs lost in the US, there aren't 8 million jobs now available. Skill sets don't match up, but plenty of middle manager types did end up flipping burgers or mopping floors. Or they left the job market and returned to school.
The fact remains; more people are looking for work than there are jobs.
I hire skilled and unskilled workers in a variety of job positions and pay both "low" and higher rates of wages, but every set of wages comes above the UK's minimum wage. I have never in my life paid anyone just minimum wage.
So what if a middle-manager-type ended up "flipping burgers" or "mopping floors"? Better to have a job than no job, this is the problem with too many in society, they turn their nose up and think they're better than other people. They're too good for some jobs. Being too good for a job is no excuse to be unemployed. Same with returning to school, nothing wrong with that either. Spin it around, why should someone "flipping burgers or mopping the floor" be paying taxes to support those so much better than them that they don't need to do that?
I've not seen any source for how many jobs are available right now, it is not something that can be easily measured for one thing.
Because I genuinely believe it. Because those who stay unemployed are not those who genuinely seek to get a job (any job if necessary), but those who either don't care, don't try or view themselves to self-important. Because even with 8% unemployment, 92% are still employed. Because there are plenty of companies (including my own) always hiring. Because of those 92%, there's probably about 8% who have 2 jobs too! Because the long-term unemployed stay unemployed while those who lose their jobs very swiftly can get new ones.
I think talking about the "number of jobs available" is a misnomer. The current unemployment rate reflects the number of people who cannot jobs given their wage demands and willingness to travel/move. It might very well be possible that if everyone was willing to accept low enough wages and was willing to move far enough, that very few would be unemployed (there will always be some who've been jailed, are drug addicts, have various disabilities, can't function in a work environment, etc.). Whether it's reasonable to expect people to do those two things is an altogether different matter.
It's also odd to talk about the number of people applying for a given job, seeing that each person doesn't just apply to one job. For example, if there were 100 jobs, and 100 people applied for each job, that wouldn't mean that 99 will remain unemployed. In fact, if each person applied to 100 jobs, there would technically be a job for everyone. Not that I believe this is the case.
Hope is the denial of reality
But that's all the 'expert' economists and political scientists give us, in numbers and charts. Some of the higher-end jobs can't be filled by citizens, because our educational system hasn't produced enough engineers (or x,y,z). Enter H1B visa immigrants, another topic of contention. The other variable holding us back is the housing market---all those people with underwater mortgages, or homes they can't sell, in order to move where the jobs are.
There's been so much criticism of people who "won't move down the income ladder and take available jobs and give up unemployment insurance benefits".....but who can blame the degreed CEO with a mortgage (and kids in school) for not short selling/foreclosing/walking away.....to move 500 miles for an entry level position at half-pay?
Good to see you've come around to agreeing with how we collect and analyze employment data should be revamped, though.
There's also the Underemployment rate, and the U-6. Maybe better to look at employment agencies, job fairs, head hunters, the kind of thing where a Fortune 500 company advertises for 100 management positions, and 5,000 people show up.It's also odd to talk about the number of people applying for a given job, seeing that each person doesn't just apply to one job. For example, if there were 100 jobs, and 100 people applied for each job, that wouldn't mean that 99 will remain unemployed. In fact, if each person applied to 100 jobs, there would technically be a job for everyone. Not that I believe this is the case.
The monthly payroll survey by BLS provides those numbers here in the US. I'd be surprised if the UK doesn't have something similar.
And it sounds like your business has a high turn-over/attrition rate; you're not hiring for ever increasing number of positions. You are hiring to replace people who left so it doesn't at all speak to the number of jobs available.
Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?
Rand, you're also posting very UK-centric. There aren't enough jobs in Ireland or Italy, that's why young people are leaving those countries. There aren't enough jobs in certain US states, that's why entire cities are going bust. People are either drawing benefits, or trying to leave but can't.....
Purely hypothetical (and anecdotal) but what would you do if your employer declared limited bankruptcy and closed up shop in the UK? You've just bought a house, and a car. You can't really sell your house unless you want to lose several thousands of dollars to the mortgage company, because the housing industry is messed up. And because that would be a black mark on your credit, and you couldn't get a new loan for housing or a car.
Would you take ANY job at 1/3 or 1/2 of your income and default on your mortgage, just because taking ANY job is better than using some gov't assistance? How far would you go to take ANY job....moving out of country? Would Columbia or Costa Rica fit that bill?
There are jobs all over the world available. How far would you go to be employed?
All true and I'd say yes it is reasonable. It is more reasonable to take a lower-paid job than to take no job and expect someone lower-paid to support you instead.
Me and every other tax-payer.
Or he can live off his savings, unemployment insurance if he's bought any or anything else. Or he can go bankrupt. But he shouldn't expect someone else to pick up the bill for his mortgage just because he's failed to budget accordingly. Should someone 500 miles away on an entry-level position at half-pay, struggling to pay his rent on his studio apartment and barely able to dream about getting a mortgage be getting taxed so that the former CEO can live the high life on his work, not worrying about his mortgage on his lovely house?
How many are on unemployment benefits is an easy number to measure, how many vacancies there are is not.
5 years ago my company had 1 location and 20 employees. Now I have 9 locations with about 250 employees and am looking to bump that up to about 350-400. So no, attrition is one issue but we're ever-expanding. I now have more people on at the same time in one location than I would have had on the books total (not even all on the same time) in 2 locations 4 years ago. One reason I don't say who I work for publicly, because I'm responsible for hundreds of employees currently and have been responsible for probably over a thousand individuals over the last 5 years.
Move then.
Good question. I would:Purely hypothetical (and anecdotal) but what would you do if your employer declared limited bankruptcy and closed up shop in the UK? You've just bought a house, and a car. You can't really sell your house unless you want to lose several thousands of dollars to the mortgage company, because the housing industry is messed up. And because that would be a black mark on your credit, and you couldn't get a new loan for housing or a car.
1: Try to find a new job, ideally either the same or better.
2: Try to find a temporary job to help pay the bills in the mean-time.
3: Try to reduce my living expenses.
4: Try to find a lower-paid job if necessary.
5: Use up my rainy day savings as required.
6: Sell up if necessary.
7: If I couldn't make ends meet I'd eventually have to go bankrupt.
Even if I struggled to find a job that matches my current one, I'd seek to ASAP get at least a part-time temporary job, whether it was something as menial as a data-entry clerk or whatever to assist with paying the bills for as long as necessary. Anyone who gets a mortgage that they'd struggle to pay if they go through a little hardship is a fool.
What choice would I have? I'd sooner have half my income than no income!Would you take ANY job at 1/3 or 1/2 of your income and default on your mortgage, just because taking ANY job is better than using some gov't assistance?
I'd start looking anywhere in the UK. I've never lived in the same house for 4 years.Would Columbia or Costa Rica fit that bill?
There are jobs all over the world available. How far would you go to be employed?
That's not how unemployment numbers are counted. In the US unemployment rate is a monthly phone survey of 60,000 households (it has absolutely nothing to do with the number of people collecting benefits) and jobs number is a monthly phone survey of 5,000 businesses. It's as easy to get the jobs number as it is the unemployment rate.
Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?
No it's not. Households are more alike, businesses are not. One business in one industry may be hiring, another may be shedding, another may not be doing anything. One business can be dealing with large numbers, another business potentially small ones. 60,000 households is still more likely to have a far more accurate sampling than just 5,000 businesses.
A business can have 2 people in it or thousands, a household will rarely be outside the range of 1-10 people if that high.
I don't know for certain but I'd guess the ratio of businesses to households is near the ratio of the two surveys (5,000/60,000), so...basically your arguing against the validity of the statistics. In theory, the payroll survey is just as accurate as the household survey.
Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?
Just a reality check about how you define "hardship". Assuming your parent company went bust and took your investment down with them, could you pay your new mortgage on minimum wage? With no help from your mate or parents or generous friends? What if you can't find an equal-paying job, or a temporary bill-paying job?
Say you've gone through your savings, reduced your living expenses, found a temporary minimum wage job (or two) and can't "sell up".
As for the Principles of money management, can we assume you'd rather first declare personal bankruptcy or foreclose on your home before you'd use Unemployment benefits (that your employer and/or government supplemented)?
Disagreed, as businesses are not as uniform as households are. Statistically, it is less important to get a larger sample than it is to get a balanced one. I am curious how they can possibly get a balanced sample of businesses.
We have more than 25% equity in our house, so the house could fall in value by 25% without us falling into negative equity. We could struggle through and pay our bills with half our current income. Do away with luxuries like Sky TV, gym membership etc and I could probably pay my mortgage on a full time minimum wage job.
Before buying the house I planned for worst case scenarios. What if I lose my job? What if the interest rate goes up dramatically? Etc
No, don't be silly.As for the Principles of money management, can we assume you'd rather first declare personal bankruptcy or foreclose on your home before you'd use Unemployment benefits (that your employer and/or government supplemented)?
How can you get a balanced sample without getting a large sample?
Personally, I've never liked polls or surveys that rely on phones. In the "old days" that meant whoever answered the phone, in the "new times" that means land lines over cell/mobile phones. Exit polls don't mean much either....if they've voted it's already a subset with particular values.
Uhm, I was asking on behalf of others who thought they'd planned quite well. The people who had MORE than 25% equity in their homes and found they were underwater two years later. Maybe I didn't ask the right question.We have more than 25% equity in our house, so the house could fall in value by 25% without us falling into negative equity. We could struggle through and pay our bills with half our current income. Do away with luxuries like Sky TV, gym membership etc and I could probably pay my mortgage on a full time minimum wage job.
Before buying the house I planned for worst case scenarios. What if I lose my job? What if the interest rate goes up dramatically? Etc
No, don't be silly.
If you find your home has lost so much in value that you've lost 50% equity, and you can't sell your home, and you've lost your job, what would you do?
Well let me correct myself and then provide a link to the actual survey and see if it makes any difference to you. The actual number of businesses surveyed each month for the payroll survey is 140,000 not 5,000 (sorry, I was going from memory which I will try to refrain from doing here on out). Here you can find detailed information on how the survey provides the most reliable information collected concerning jobs.
Current Employment Statistics (CES) It used to be called the Payroll Survey.
Each month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program surveys about 140,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 410,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.
Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?
I said larger. Big difference between 5k and 140k.
Both are good points. In the UK, political pollsters KNOW they never get a balanced sample, so dramatically weight the respondents accordingly to artificially attempt to make it balanced.Personally, I've never liked polls or surveys that rely on phones. In the "old days" that meant whoever answered the phone, in the "new times" that means land lines over cell/mobile phones. Exit polls don't mean much either....if they've voted it's already a subset with particular values.
What do you expect me to say? I'd have to attempt to cross that bridge, but it'd be my responsibility.Uhm, I was asking on behalf of others who thought they'd planned quite well. The people who had MORE than 25% equity in their homes and found they were underwater two years later. Maybe I didn't ask the right question.
If you find your home has lost so much in value that you've lost 50% equity, and you can't sell your home, and you've lost your job, what would you do?
I said larger. Big difference between 5k and 140k.
Both are good points. In the UK, political pollsters KNOW they never get a balanced sample, so dramatically weight the respondents accordingly to artificially attempt to make it balanced.Personally, I've never liked polls or surveys that rely on phones. In the "old days" that meant whoever answered the phone, in the "new times" that means land lines over cell/mobile phones. Exit polls don't mean much either....if they've voted it's already a subset with particular values.
What do you expect me to say? I'd have to attempt to cross that bridge, but it'd be my responsibility.Uhm, I was asking on behalf of others who thought they'd planned quite well. The people who had MORE than 25% equity in their homes and found they were underwater two years later. Maybe I didn't ask the right question.
If you find your home has lost so much in value that you've lost 50% equity, and you can't sell your home, and you've lost your job, what would you do?
I don't understand why the [low-income] taxpayers should be so outraged. It's a pact. Any one of them stand to benefit from it
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Of course, but I was asking YOU what YOU would do. Hypothetically, but a reality for millions of Americans.
I'll add another layer of hypothetical.....say you've lost your franchise job, it's all gone kaput. You've applied for similar jobs and been turned away. You're approaching 90 weeks of unemployment, and your unemployment insurance has run out. Your parents can't help out, because they're facing a similar situation. Your mate can't help, because she's also unemployed and can't find a job. You've reduced all expenses, cancelled services for phone and tv.
What do you do now?