Just-released official figures for Q4-2010 show a 0.5% contraction in the economy. The worst December weather ever is almost certainly to blame and put an unexpected dampener on the Christmas shopping, it had already been reported that shops lost billions due to that as customers couldn't reach the shops while online retailers also struggled (I didn't order a Christmas present online as I wasn't sure it would be delivered on time due to the snow). However a lot of marketing etc had gone into getting extra shopping (especially big-ticket items like cars) to "beat the VAT increase". Experts had still predicted growth.
This January has been quite slow to due to the VAT-increase, normally cheaper than pre-Christmas sales are instead having more expensive prices than previously and when I went to the Trafford Centre just after the VAT-increase it was a ghost town. Normally you can't find easy parking in December/January.
Given the VAT etc I'd expected Q1-2011's sales to be lower but Q4-2010's to be higher, if that's happened yet Q4 is a contraction then there's got to be a significant chance that Q1-2011 will result in a contraction to and put us officially back in technical recession
The one saving grace may be the snow. Last year January had awful snow again which we haven't had this January, so that may make a difference.