Page 20 of 20 FirstFirst ... 10181920
Results 571 to 588 of 588

Thread: The Stock/Investment Thread

  1. #571
    Why do you think that S&P500 is going down?
    The only news on Jan 10 was about Chinese imports and exports going down and yuan going down for several days.
    It should make S&P500 to grow.
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  2. #572
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    Probably. Though I'm more prepared for things just going sideways for a while -- as they probably should. Did a lot of scheduled buying from February to March. Mostly paused and will just sit for a while, as this is all long-term investments.
    Invest in porn and a decent teledildonics index fund.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  3. #573
    The end of this month we'll start getting quarterly earnings posted, and it's the end of the fiscal year for many companies. That's probably a good opportunity for an economic shock leading to a market over-correction.

  4. #574
    I've given up on the market reacting to economic news in sane ways.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  5. #575
    Periods of irrationality happen, but they always end. Usually dramatically.

  6. #576
    Still, I've never seen so much speculation go in the opposite direction of just about everyone's expectations. It's one thing when a stock goes up more than it should. It's quite another when it goes up in the face of overwhelmingly bad news that's unlikely to improve for at least a year.
    Last edited by Loki; 06-14-2020 at 05:22 AM.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  7. #577
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Invest in porn and a decent teledildonics index fund.
    I legitimately just looked at the famous "VICEX" ETF fund and HOLY HELL I can't believe people buy into a 1.49% expense ratio. What a premium for a throwaway-but-fun idea. Anyone know of cheaper funds like it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    The end of this month we'll start getting quarterly earnings posted, and it's the end of the fiscal year for many companies. That's probably a good opportunity for an economic shock leading to a market over-correction.
    Agreed, so many investors have no transparency into what even April was like for public companies. It will be a good reality check on earnings multiples, though I'm sure companies will be keen to also message how much better May/June was.

    FREE ENTERPRISE NCC-1701 WILL PREVAIL

  8. #578
    Now I know what caused the S&P500 to go down. Federal reserve forecasted lower than people anticipated.
    However I suspect these estimations do not consider chip manufacturing jobs coming from China and many other companies.
    And liquidity is enough to get some recovery.
    However some people think at this time fundamentals do not support more S&P500 growth until we have recovered preCOVID revenue.
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  9. #579
    CLOs will probably be the straw that breaks the economy this time. Earnings reports will merely begin pulling back the curtain on how banks are using CLOs to understate the true risks of the consolidated debt they carry. Banks are way under capitalized for the true risk. When the shit goes down the banks will blame the credit rating agencies just like they did with CDOs. Lot of good Dodd - Frank did to prevent institutional overleveraging.
    .

  10. #580
    I assume you read the Atlantic piece about CLOs. I think it was a bit overblown; banks are better capitalized than they were and I think the risk of financial contagion is still relatively moderate. But certainly the risk is a lot higher now than it was 6 months ago.

    I'm assuming that we're going to see all sorts of gyrations in markets for a while. No one really knows where the economy is going to end up, and where social distancing sensitive sectors (e.g. travel, entertainment, etc.) are going to end up even if employment recovers part of its losses relatively quickly. In that context, no one really knows what an airline or a movie theater chain should be worth.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  11. #581
    I read an interesting theory about why the markets are being more stupid than usual. We know that consumption from the top 10% is way down (while consumption from pretty much everyone else has already returned to pre-covid levels). So you have a lot of upper-middle class/upper class people with a ton of money and nothing to use it for. Given the terrible interest rates in banks, are they moving all that money into brokerage accounts?
    Hope is the denial of reality

  12. #582
    I saw this theory as well! I actually think it may make some sense, more sense than arguments about psychology or people having more time on their hands. You don't need all that much more money to flow into the market on the margins to push up prices. On the other hand, if the big institutional investors really think this rally is a flash in the pan, why isn't there more profit taking and short positions building up? It seems like a lot of people are confused by the rally but aren't willing to question it all that much.

    I suspect there are technical gauges that might allow us to better understand if this hypothesis is accurate. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about that kind of analysis to suggest what we might be able to analyze.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  13. #583
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    I saw this theory as well! I actually think it may make some sense, more sense than arguments about psychology or people having more time on their hands. You don't need all that much more money to flow into the market on the margins to push up prices. On the other hand, if the big institutional investors really think this rally is a flash in the pan, why isn't there more profit taking and short positions building up? It seems like a lot of people are confused by the rally but aren't willing to question it all that much.

    I suspect there are technical gauges that might allow us to better understand if this hypothesis is accurate. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about that kind of analysis to suggest what we might be able to analyze.
    I think we'll have to wait for consumption to pick up to see if it leads to lower stock prices (which could contradict conventional wisdom about the effect of greater consumption).

    I also think we're in a massive bubble and everyone is buying on the assumption that they'll manage to cash out before the whole thing collapses.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  14. #584
    Number of new cases tops its previous high by 25%. Stock market goes up 1%.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  15. #585
    Some questions:

    What is "the economy"?

    What benefit does the economy get from the Fed buying increasing amounts of corporate bonds?

    When will the Fed begin buying stocks?

    What benefit can the economy expect from the Fed buying stocks?


    My current thoughts:

    "The economy" is consumption and speculation. If E=(1-S/C) then the economy is more positive the more C outweighs S.

    Fed buying corporate bonds has minimal effect on consumption and increases speculation.

    Fed will begin buying stocks when the effect of buying corporate bonds diminishes.

    The economy will benefit from the Fed buying stocks by stabilizing speculation with minimal effect on consumption.
    .

  16. #586
    The US needs to stop assuming that the US dollar is the most important metric....

    Freeee Markets lol
    Last edited by GGT; 06-27-2020 at 12:08 AM.

  17. #587
    My assumption is the market won't be too rational until Q3 earnings. Then things will get bloody again and we'll see what things really look like.

  18. #588

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •