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Thread: The Stock/Investment Thread

  1. #481
    The technology is neat I agree. But does anyone building these things understand how currencies actually work beyond the nature of a peer-to-peer relationship? If the derived "currency" is deflationary, I don't see how it works. The blockchain is neat for sure, but that's the non-currency juice of this fruit.

  2. #482
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    This one always puzzles me, why aren't you a conservative? The entire liberal ideology is based on people being slaves to circumstance and that's why the world needs to have more equal outcomes. You clearly get that *YOUR* actions have made you successful. Your choice to delay gratification. Your choice to keep your nose clean, work hard and prosper.
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    The idea that hard work is generally rewarded is not necessarily inconsistent with the idea that some people have such a substantial advantage or disadvantage that hard work will make a minimal difference. Incidentally, the GOP position on social issues and now on Trump makes it all but impossible for classical liberals with high education or those who live in urban areas to support the party.
    These posts made me see how we talk past one another on important topics. Lewk took wiggin's post and turned it into conservative vs liberal ideology. Loki stepped in and moved it to a practical, political observation.

    The truth is that a stock/investment thread like this is interesting and fun for people actually 'invested' in Wall Street, but that's less than half the US population. And it's certainly not an accurate portrayal of the overall economy, but just one indicator that mostly reflects expectations, including those irrational animal spirits that see risk as opportunity.

    Another truth is that working hard, delaying gratification, and saving money is no longer a way toward prosperity, Lewk. Even if you've got a college degree and a good job, the cost of rent/home ownership makes it nearly impossible to save your way to wealth. Especially if you've got student loans, plus other debts like car loans or credit cards. It's no longer feasible to stash money in a savings account and let it grow, because it doesn't accrue enough interest to keep up with inflation.

    Make no mistake -- we don't value hard work and saving money, as a society. We value debt, credit, and taking risks. We've monetized gambling schemes. Even our educational system is one big crap shoot.
    Last edited by GGT; 02-03-2018 at 03:44 AM.

  3. #483
    And here it comes, the market readjusting (normalizing?) itself downward, in response to good global economic data. It's unfortunate that just a hint of US wage growth can make corporations worry about their profit margins, since the Fed will probably raise interest rates from abnormal lows, making their debt a bit more costly. The end of practically free institutional debt should be a good thing, even tho it makes gov't debt more expensive, and Trump's tax cuts just added to our deficit. And the volatility swings aren't good for anyone but speculators and high frequency traders.

  4. #484
    Quote Originally Posted by Tylor View Post
    I invested quite a bit into Antshares in June (now rebranded to NEO). I made a good amount from Waltonchain as well.

    Wondering now how far BTC will go on this run and when the altcoins will make a comeback.


    I'd suggest abandoning Waltonchain if you're still holding it.

  5. #485
    Tulips.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  6. #486
    I sold my WTC a while ago so I wasn't affected by that drop.

    Tulips? Probably more than 95% of these projects aren't going to go anywhere. But there are a few AMZNs in there.

  7. #487
    There are no fundamentals. Crypto-currency advice is based entirely on the psychology of the market.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  8. #488
    Short term, sure. It is all speculation still. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain/DAG technology are still in the infancy stage.

  9. #489

  10. #490
    Only if you invest in things you don't understand.

  11. #491

  12. #492
    I mean, he's speaking more theoretically than speaking about an imminent issue. But certainly folks who sold into the 2008 crisis (either because they thought it was a good idea or needed to for other reasons) had that happen.

  13. #493
    It's only "theoretical" if you've already got enough wealth to weather the downturns. It doesn't matter much to lose half your wealth, if you've already got millions or billions to begin with (or another 50 years to turn a profit). Swimming without trunks when the tide goes out is a Buffet metaphor, but how does that inspire confidence in the "fundamentals" of market investing from people treading water?

  14. #494
    Finally the market realized they were tulips.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/t...or-losses.html
    Hope is the denial of reality

  15. #495

  16. #496
    Indeedy. Though I was pleased to read a New Yorker profile about the origins of Etherium that seemed to indicate they were at least somewhat thinking beyond the short-term hustle and visions of post-government lolbertarianism to long-term applications of this stuff.

    Meanwhile, I'm getting nervous about the municipal debt market again. Everyone freaked out about municipal borrowing after the financial crisis, but the sky didn't fall because rates were so damn low. As rates go up, I suspect this problem will surface again. Either way, rates going up promises broad-based asset class declines.

  17. #497
    Why the hell didn't we pass a broad, national infrastructure bill when interest rates were below zero?

  18. #498
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    There are no fundamentals. Crypto-currency advice is based entirely on the psychology of the market.
    Crypto-currency has the disadvantages of cash and the disadvantages of digital money.
    If you put your wallet online, like in a cloud, it can be stolen and used.
    If you have it in your computer, it can be stolen and used.
    If you have it in a flash drive, it may fail. Make a copy and it can be lost, stolen, and fail.
    With latest Windows 10 bugs that deleted flash memory, you may lose your wallet without a fail.

    Macroeconomically, money should be printed when production increases.
    If production grows faster than money printing, prices go down.
    If production grows slower than money printing, prices go up.
    Spanish empire printed money (mined gold) way faster than production and that led to an inflation crisis that lasted a century.

    Gold is not "printed" at the same pace of production and not all nations have gold.
    Normal money is easy to print, and it is printed by central banks.
    Cryptocurrency printing depends on computing power, and anyone with money can print money.
    All currencies are fiat money. When a currency is worthless, having anything material to bailout, makes no difference.
    Last edited by ar81; 12-06-2018 at 02:00 PM.
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  19. #499
    So, it's been awhile since we've had baseless speculation on markets. I've been mildly entertained by the market's current meltdown - clearly no one was pricing in pandemic risks to global trade and they decided to freak out all at once. The news (and my inbox) has been full of 'don't sell all of your stocks right now!' stories but I'm more wondering when I should buy. I've been sitting on a growing pile of cash I've been saving for a downpayment (think low six figures) that I haven't been investing because I thought valuations were inflated and we were due for a big correction, if not an actual recession. I've been broadly pessimistic on the economy for some time given general malaise in other parts of the world and Trump's shenanigans with trade.

    And yet, valuations are starting to get a bit more manageable now and I've been debating when to invest a smallish sum ($20k?). The big risk, of course, is that this whole thing tips the economy into a recession and valuations go into freefall. I'm getting tired of 2% yield on money that I'm frankly not going to be able to use for a couple years at least.

    So, what do you all think? Are we headed to a complete meltdown, or is the correction nearly over and stocks will continue their stroll upwards until the business cycle ends naturally?
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  20. #500
    The stock market loves to overreact, and this looks like a panic. While I'm expecting a bounce, there's a good chance this an early indicator of a shift in trends - I won't be surprised if we start seeing a gradual contraction even after this blows over. Whatever happens, now's probably a good time to start to DCA - make small buys regularly until you have reason to either pause it or accelerate it.

  21. #501
    We're due a global recession, its been thirteen years already since the last one was triggered and this certainly could be the trigger.

    But then it could be a good opportunity to buy. Best time to buy is after a crash and I think the market is overreacting to this - but then I think the American healthcare system is underreacting as I posted on the thread on the other forum - so I think this infection will before long cease to be a Chinese problem and will be a global one.

    If it wasn't probably already valued to high already I think a big winner/opportunity from this could be Tesla. Tesla has fallen much more than the market due to it having invested heavily in China - but Shanghai is nowhere near Wuhan and the Chinese are uniquely draconian and authoritarian enough to implement successful quarantines. The WHO seem to be confirming that the Chinese quarantine is working and that the risks outside of China are now greater than the risks in China ex-Hubei province. I think Tesla's production capabilities will be back up and running before long, plus if there's a big market disruption then Tesla have two big advantages. Firstly they've got invested heavily in their own technology and supply chain so a disruption could affect them less - plus a big market disruption will help prevent other competitors from catching up with their superior technology. If they can continue to ramp up production they could get a substantial advantage here in the market.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  22. #502
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    clearly no one was pricing in pandemic risks to global trade and they decided to freak out all at once.
    Imagine making a soup that was so bad you fucked over the global economy.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  23. #503
    The market was overpriced, so a correction was inevitable. This just happened to be the proximate cause. Having said that, we're all but certain to face two events that could spook the market further: the virus hitting the US (even if it's only a few hundred cases), especially if some of the cases can't be traced to China, S. Korea, or N. Italy, and Sanders winning a number of primaries. I was tempted to buy this week, but I think I'm going to hold off at least until next Wednesday (due to Super Tuesday).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  24. #504
    I have started an occult ritual that will ensure the imminent devaluation of Wraithy's portfolio, in revenge.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  25. #505
    I'm old enough to remember the time when a savings account had a 6% yield. No "investment decision" required. Just park your money in the bank and watch it grow. Mortgage loans were more expensive, but homes were also more affordable. hmmm

  26. #506
    I did a little buying this week in my IRA (mainly because I had a lot of cash in my IRA from a past rollover). Beyond that, not changing my strategy too much because I think the truth is somewhere between all of you: prices were high, a correction was due and my big question is how does this impact actual economic growth.

    I think there's a chance this will be mostly old news in 60-90 days, but could be the opposite. Certainly my project in Asia is on pause, but there's plenty of other trees to water.

    Speaking of which, gotta hoard non-perishable foods, toiletpaper, pepper spray and other weapons.

  27. #507
    The more I think about this, the more I figure people are going to drive prices down more for a while. The reality is that there's going to be bad covid-19 news for a very long time, and it's going to be awhile before markets learn to shrug it off. Coupled with other secular headwinds I'm not sure I see a sustained recovery for a while, except for the occasional 'buying the dip' rally. I'm going to wait a bit but might do a bit of DCA as Wraithy suggested. In reality, my timeframe for this money isn't all that long - probably only 2-3 years - so I'm less concerned about cyclical factors than I am about idiosyncratic ones. We'll have to see.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  28. #508
    Yeah, the weekend usually cools heads, but the bounce I was expecting on Monday might not be as big or as real as I thought at the time of my last post. The covid-19 thing is progressing a bit faster than I expected, and anecdotal evidence is that people are starting to panic. I don't get a lot of chances to see circumstances like these, so there's a lot more unknowns here than I'm used to.

  29. #509
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    I'm old enough to remember the time when a savings account had a 6% yield. No "investment decision" required. Just park your money in the bank and watch it grow. Mortgage loans were more expensive, but homes were also more affordable. hmmm
    And what was the inflation rate?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #510

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