Only because Switzerland isn't on the list.Originally Posted by RandBlade
Only because Switzerland isn't on the list.
Hope is the denial of reality
The hysteria about the euro is entirely solvable.
Congratulations America
No doubt....that all problems created by men can be solved by men. The How and When also matters, though. When there's a crisis unfolding, "hysteria" isn't such a great term but probably very appropriate as a reaction. Especially from sovereign debt bond holders across the pond, watching their retirement funds plummet.
Dontchathink?
Most problems are, if you took that to dismiss everything where it was true then we wouldn't talk about anything.
Under that logic there's no need to worry about the Mid-East peace process as its entirely solvable. World poverty? Entirely solvable. Etc
It may be solvable, but the kink is that people do not want to take the tough and expensive decisions necessary to solve it.
Which was ruled by:
Adrien Lachenal, Eduard Müller, Walter Hauser, Adolf Deucher, Josef Zemp, Eugène Ruffy, Emil Frey
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
Trying a Loki here ? What I meant of course that the solution to the sovereign debt crisis (the easy one anyway) is within easy reach. There are reasons why it is not being set in motion, but it still is there. The problem about debt in general are of an entirely different quality and can not be easily solved by a single political decision.
By the way, it is real fun for me to see all those things happening you said couldn't happen in the discussions about Lisbon. Your PM is being told to shove his veto where the sun doesn't shine and the talk is not about 'clawing back powers' but about saving the UK from irrelevance. Unanimity rules are a thing of the past it seems. And if you don't take my word for it, look at how Merkel made clear to Cameron that any change of the Treaties necessary for the EMU will not come with any price lest the UK wants the Eurozone to become a core-EU with its own set of rules.
Last edited by Hazir; 11-11-2011 at 02:07 AM.
Congratulations America
Funny, I don't recall saying that "couldn't happen", nor do I see talk about "saving the UK from irrelevance", that is yesterday's news: Behind what was the previous governments pandering.
What matters now, what really matters - is what has always mattered: Money. Much of Europe is bust.
The UK is still by a long-way a net contributer. As has always been the case, but especially now, he who pays the piper calls the tunes. We're not bankrolling the eurozone, as many Germans may now observe in hindsight we were right to stay out. But we're still funding the EU - and via the IMF helping bail out Europe. Unless and until we become a net drain, we are not and will not be an irrelevance.
Money as in currency? Money as in credit/debt or monetary policy? Economic money or Political money? Seems to me that real economic money is waning, as global growth stalls in developed nations. It's not enough now to have a leader say, "Kiss your kids and go shopping" (or buy a house at these low interest rates and deflated housing values....because the cost of debt is so low now!) as a believable solution to anything. Especially not if it means individuals borrowing on credit or racking up debt. Especially not in this labor market where jobs are coveted, and banks are still flailing around. <Too big to lend, too big to fail, too big to save.>
Governments don't operate like individuals or families, and neither do sovereign budgets, but our reliance on central banks and monetary finagling seems to have hit its structural limit. The idea that IOUs and debt mean security or growth, or thatprinting moneyexpanding the money supply will get us out of this....well, I'm skeptical. Even those who believe central bankers are politically "neutral" must be drinking some kind of Kool-Aid.
Can anyone explain this continued reliance on politicians and the politics of money, when they're the ones that led us down this dark road in the first place?
You must be joking right? Referring to the EU budget in a discussion that pertains to a financial crisis? A budget that hardly amounts to 1% of EU GDP.
Also besides Greece the EU is far from bust.
As for not being relevant, I think the admission of Cameron that he has been consulted by exactly nobody over the last few days of intense crisis tells it all. I was wrong, your country is not risking becoming irrelevant, it already is irrelevant.
Finally, any German who thinks it was a mistake for his country to become part of the EMU should have his head checked. Germany is without any doubt the country that profited most form EMU membership.
Congratulations America
So you're claiming the EU is irrelevant?
Yes it is a Eurozone crisis and we're not in the Eurozone, we are in the EU.
Portugal's not bust? They've been bailed out.Also besides Greece the EU is far from bust.
Ireland's not bust? They've been bailed out.
Italy's not bust? They're going to be bailed out.
Spain's not bust but close to the edge.
France is not bust but getting much, much closer to the edge.
While not in the normal list, don't forget that Romania are bust and had to get bailed out too. Not that it makes much difference.
Besides Germany, the UK is bigger than all non-at-risk Eurozone economies but together.
It's a Eurozone crisis. We're not in the eurozone.As for not being relevant, I think the admission of Cameron that he has been consulted by exactly nobody over the last few days of intense crisis tells it all. I was wrong, your country is not risking becoming irrelevant, it already is irrelevant.
Which is why they're going to be lumped ultimately with the bill. There's no such thing as a free lunch.Finally, any German who thinks it was a mistake for his country to become part of the EMU should have his head checked. Germany is without any doubt the country that profited most form EMU membership.
Of the countries you mentioned it's more a question of illiquidity except for Greece. As for this being a 'Eurozone crisis', the fall out for the UK and the City is so big that not being on the inner circle is exceedingly bad for you. No free lunch also means you will be presented a hefty bill.
Congratulations America
It's not just a eurozone crisis. It's a global crisis because of the interconnectedness of our debt. Decoupling was debunked in 2008, wasn't it?
While it's interesting to watch you guys go back and forth about European countries, who's stronger than the other, etc....isn't the bottom line that everyone is too heavily in debt, and that growth has slowed to a snail's pace? That developed economies also have ageing/greying populations with healthcare and pension costs, that can't be paid for on the backs of the youth....who also can't find good-paying jobs to prosper themselves, let alone paying for the longer-living geezers?
While most everyone looks to elected politicians for political policy, or appointed central bankers for monetary policy, to "fix" decades of crappy policies they made that led us here in the first place....to expect the "leaders" that got us into this mess, to get us out of this mess....doesn't that sound rather crazy? Haven't all the Wizards' of Oz green curtains been pulled back and exposed the financial alchemy for the fantasies that they are?
Go ahead and explain how, and how much.
Explain it all, and for how much. Can anyone do that?
The potential fall-out goes beyond the UK. It's beyond Iceland, Ireland, or Greece. It's even beyond Italy, Spain, France or Germany. Are those nations not as "broke" or indebted as any other, and it's just a matter of degree?
<Personally, I've never understood why PIIGS even included Portugal in the grand scheme of things.>
No nation can guarantee the debt bonds of any other. Even collectively, with monetary intervention from IMF or ECB, it's a stretch. Because there's no political continuity. The eurozone never meant anything more than a collective currency. Since when did currencies "bring nations together"? There's no way to have so many nations unite, with such disparate goals.
Hell, even the US has troubles doing it as "united" states, using the world's main currency and our ownprinting pressFederal reserve bank and Treasury Dept.
Even if the whole world could agree to honor everyone else's debts, that's not a very smart way to move forward---using more debt to promise future growth, to pay off previous debt.
Even if several governments keep trying to sell this, I think general populaces aren't buying it. The gig is up. Everyone is basically broke and has no way to pay down the debt, but still expects the gov't credit card to keep rolling it over? Greece's austerity measures didn't include one damn dime of military expenditure cuts....because that would affect US and others, as profiteers of selling them military arms. Gotta keep that military industrial complex going, huh.
Also, that the global derivatives market (which operates without supervision or regulation) now stands at $600 TRILLION. That's more than the whole world's economies combined. That can't possibly work out, no matter what kind of fuzzy accounting is used.
I think we should be asking more than who's the next failed euro state, and re-frame the question. Who's the nation that can survive this global mess--or which nation has the strong foundation to survive the tsunami?
I'll pay you 3.4 potatoes and half a cat to start thinking things through before you post.Can anyone explain this continued reliance on politicians and the politics of money, when they're the ones that led us down this dark road in the first place?
As to the rest, like Hazir said, your j00s really have nothing to do with discussion, so stop trying to drag them into it. Of course, there's a lesson to be learned in half of socialist Europe going broke, one that Americans would be well advised to heed before it's too late... but probably won't, since they seem to be preoccupied with you and the rest of the c0mmunistas 0ccupying J00 Street and whatn0t.
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
-- Thomas Jefferson: American Founding Father, clairvoyant and seditious traitor.
I'd rather have 3.4 cats and half a potato.
Whether you believe it or not, plenty of lay people have put a lot of thought into the differences between Economic Money and Political Money. The academic experts can't explain away the structural and fundamental rot. Can you?
Deal.
PM me your mailing address. And which 2/5 of the cat do you want? Front, back, top, bottom, or should I just surprise you?
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
-- Thomas Jefferson: American Founding Father, clairvoyant and seditious traitor.
Don't you know that 0.4 of a cat would be a kitten? I'll take 3 cats and one newborn kitten. Forget the half potato.
Initially because Portugal were one of the five nations most at imminent risk. Given they have gone bust and required a bailout, I don't see why you wouldn't include them. Italy is only now catching up on them.<Personally, I've never understood why PIIGS even included Portugal in the grand scheme of things.
What is there to explain? In a matter of 2 years Lisbon will come into full force and then regulating the financial sector can be decided by the eurozone. After which the EU can rubberstamp the decision.
Congratulations America
The financial situation of the UK is much worse than that of Italy, with less perspective for improvement. If the UK would have been a part of the EMU it would have been right there behind Greece and well before any of the other countries in trouble. Now that you are not part of the EMU even your 25% devalued currency doesn't make you any less of a basket case.
Congratulations America
As far as I'm aware regulating the eurozone's financial sector can be decided by the eurozone members alone - Lisbon gives that power. It does not give the eurozone alone power to regulate the whole EU (ie London).
So what you are tacitly admitting is that had the UK been in the eurozone we'd now be in a disastrous situation? That it was a good job we're not in it? That is quite a remarkable, almost damascene coversion for you if that is what you mean
As for the UK being a basket case, there is no evidence for that. I asked for some evidence 3-4 pages back but you failed to provide any besides the fact that we're not in the eurozone. The UK is ticking along quite nicely thank you. Besides Germany we have the lowest yields in Europe - despite (or more likely because of) not being in the eurozone.
Just to avoid any confusion, if you are thinking that the 17 Eurozone nations could sign their own treaty which the UK is not a party to - thus somehow pinning the UK as irrelevent - I couldn't give a rats arse if that happened. Since that way the UK would ... not be a party to it anyway.
This is one of those moments that it becomes painfully obvious that you really don't understand what you are talking about. A continued EU with a separate EMU block acting inside that EU means that the EU will regulate as the EMU rules, and those regulations will be the law of the land everywhere in the EU, also in the UK. Whatever your government or parliament will have to say about what the law should be, will have any bearing on the outcome.
Even before this crisis started a process of pulling the strings had already begun by suggesting that certain clearing houses should not be located outside of the eurozone.
As for your economic and financial situation, you are a basketcase whichever currency you would be using. I just said that you're hardly a notch better than the Greeks when it comes to fiscal prudency, and a lot worse than the Italians when it comes to potential for improvement.
P.S. an EMU-specific new treaty will also make it not just improbable but utterly impossible for your government to claw back anything at all in return from what is really a major overhaul of the EU.
Congratulations America
This is the kind of tripe you've always argued. Either way I don't care for a few reasons.
1: Where we have a veto it doesn't matter how much the EMU wants something.
2: Where it doesn't affect us, it doesn't matter at all.
3: Where there's QMV etc then we can already lose out to EMU-nations unifying anyway.
No shit Sherlock. Last I checked though London is still the major financial city in the EU. Anyway, EU rules prevent that sort of state discrimination actually happening so unless people choose to change (which they've not in the last decade despite all the warnings it would happen if we didn't join) then its not going to change.Even before this crisis started a process of pulling the strings had already begun by suggesting that certain clearing houses should not be located outside of the eurozone.
Is it comedy night or are you actually serious?As for your economic and financial situation, you are a basketcase whichever currency you would be using. I just said that you're hardly a notch better than the Greeks when it comes to fiscal prudency, and a lot worse than the Italians when it comes to potential for improvement.
Again, no shit Sherlock. Then again I'm more likely to believe snow in June than powers actually being clawed back without sacrifice. At least I can rely on the current PM to actually try to put Britain's interests first, not like his disgraceful predecessor whose ingenious idea was to miss the "family photo" signing of Lisbon and turn up by himself to sign it later that day.P.S. an EMU-specific new treaty will also make it not just improbable but utterly impossible for your government to claw back anything at all in return from what is really a major overhaul of the EU.
Vetoes
Congratulations America
If it affects us: Yes. And I have a practical example from this year:
Otherwise the Tobin tax would actually be coming into force, it was afterall announced by Merkozy that it would be happening. It will never happen for so long as the UK has a veto.
Go Go German Hegemony!
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Auf der Heide blüht ein kleines Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
Heiß von hunderttausend kleinen Bienelein
Wird umschwärmt Erika!
Denn ihr Herz ist voller Süßigkeit,
Zarter Duft entströmt dem Blütenkleid
Auf der Heide blüht ein kleines Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
In der Heimat wohnt ein kleines Mägdelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
Dieses Mädel ist mein treues Schätzelein
Und mein Glück, Erika!
Wenn das Heidekraut rot-lila blüht,
Singe ich zum Gruß ihr dieses Lied.
Auf der Heide blüht ein kleines Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
In mein'm Kämmerlein blüht auch ein Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
Schon beim Morgengrau'n sowie beim Dämmerschein
Schaut's mich an, Erika!
Und dann ist es mir, als spräch' es laut:
Denkst du auch an deine kleine Braut?
In der Heimat weint um dich ein Mägdelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
In the future, the Berlin wall will be a mile high, and made of steel. You too will be made to crawl, to lick children's blood from jackboots. There will be no creativity, only productivity. Instead of love there will be fear and distrust, instead of surrender there will be submission. Contact will be replaced with isolation, and joy with shame. Hope will cease to exist as a concept. The Earth will be covered with steel and concrete. There will be an electronic policeman in every head. Your children will be born in chains, live only to serve, and die in anguish and ignorance.
The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference.
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