The effects of remilitarizing the Israel-Egyptian border

[wiggin]

As you all undoubtedly know, a fairly complex terror attack was carried out in Israel near the border with Egypt today. It was a combined shooting-mortar-rocket attack on various vehicles near the border; most of the casualties came when they shot an anti-tank missile at a private car. It is not surprising; Israeli commentators have been speculating for months that terror groups were operating with relative impunity in the Sinai desert through a combination of Egyptian disinterest with a confrontation and their focus on the revolution and other internal matters. In the meantime, IDF intelligence has hinted at a significant stepping-up of weapons shipments to Gaza from the Sinai desert and increased organization of local Islamist organizations. It appears that most control of the Sinai has been ceded (at least temporarily) to the various clans living in the desert, despite the fact that the Egyptian army has had a significantly increased presence in the Sinai since the revolution (Israel agreed to let them increase their forces in the Sinai in contravention of the Camp David Accords, ostensibly in return for some level of security on the border).

This comes at a sensitive time in Israeli politics. 'Tent' protestors, who among other things demand a reduction in the defense budget to fund cheaper housing, have shelved IDF plans for further investment in acquisitions. In the meantime, sporadic flare-ups along the border with Gaza have rattled southern residents... and there's always the ever-present concern of what will happen in September when the Palestinians attempt to declare a state again (another intifada? mass protests? nothing?).

For most of the last 30-odd years, the IDF has had the luxury of reducing its prioritization of the border with Egypt, formerly a heavily militarized region taking a good chunk of IDF strength. In recent years, the occasional terror infiltration coupled with increasing numbers of African refugees streaming across the border (not to mention drugs/etc.) has slightly raised the border in its importance, and Israel has begun the construction of a sophisticated border fence system along the long, geographically challenging border. Yet events today put a whole new complexion on the issue. It is likely the defense budget won't be touched in any changes as a result of the protests, and fortifying of the border will undoubtedly be prioritized in the budget. More worrisome, Israel is talking about significantly increasing military strength along the border, establishing an independent military command for the region, and dusting off its contingency planning for conflicts with Egypt. I doubt they're interested in a confrontation with Egypt, but I don't doubt they'll consider small cross-border strikes against terrorist cells if this escalates. Not a good combination, given Egypt's own professed ambivalence about the treaty with Israel.

What do you guys think? Obviously this is very speculative right now, but that's one border that has enjoyed a huge peace dividend for decades. Upsetting that delicate balance may not have been the terrorists' objective (more likely they were frustrated at the lack of success in carrying out attacks from Gaza), but it is certainly a worrisome outcome.

[wiggin]

Interesting. Some more detailed Israeli accounts indicate that Israeli security forces actually did cross into Egypt briefly today to kill two shooters across the border; Egypt killed an additional two elsewhere in the Sinai. Will Israeli policy vis-a-vis cross border threats get more aggressive in the wake of these attacks? Possibly; it seems that they had detailed information on the planned attack, they just were expecting it at a different time (and it's also rather difficult to secure a 200 km border)... in the future, they might push for a more proactive approach.

[Dreadnaught]

I can only cynically hope that Egypt's current de-facto open-border-for-our-brothers-in-Palestine policy will eventually blow back at them. Gaza was miserable when Egypt actually ruled over it, and it's easy to imagine Gazans turning their rage and desires against a softer target (Egypt).

[wiggin]

I am somewhat more charitably inclined; I think the military (who are really calling the shots in Egypt right now) have an interest in keeping control of the Sinai - there have been multiple attacks on pipelines running through the Sinai and on other sites not directly related to Israel. So I think while they will turn a blind eye to open weapons smuggling into Gaza, they're making a decent effort at cracking down on bad guys inside the Sinai desert. They also are interested in keeping the border relatively well policed. I think the bigger issue here is that the Egyptian military simply has other things to worry about now, so they're letting near-anarchy rule in most of the Sinai (outside a few specific points that are decently patrolled by the reinforced military Israel allowed in).

Then again, they might not mind too much if Israel has to deal with the consequences of their lax security.

[Dreadnaught]

How bad do you suppose the state/military's financial problems will get? I can foresee a Pakistan-like scenario in which the military demands more and more funds while the state itself becomes less and less in control.

[wiggin]

I assume you're talking about Egypt now, yes? To be honest I'm not sure where the country is going. Their military is incredibly silly in how it's organized - heavy on cheap and poorly trained manpower to give numbers, yet also invested into large numbers of expensive weapons systems: the M1A1 Abrams tank, a significant number of F-16s, etc. They're clearly armed for a major conventional war, but they can't even do that particularly well given their piss-poor manpower and training. What they should focus on is a smaller, more nimble force that can adequately deal with their border issues and policing in remote areas only nominally under Egyptian law - they don't have any particularly big conventional threats right now, and even if they did they could do a smarter job preparing for it.

But the fact of the matter is that the Egyptian military is a major institution in the country and gets the first slice of the budget pie (not to mention large chunks of industry and real estate). It's going to be a significant challenge for them to hand off some of this autonomy to a strong civilian government. My only hope is that they'll follow more of a Turkish model than a Pakistani one.

[wiggin]

Ongoing Katyusha fire onto Beersheva and Ashkelon, resulting in one death and several wounded... only a matter of time before the IAF flattens part of Gaza again. Fun.

Not to mention the whole mess (unclear as the details are) over the deaths of some 5 Egyptian policeman during the attack Thursday, causing a bit of a kerfluffle between Israel and Egypt.

[Dreadnaught]

Eesh, was away and just read about the Egyptian policemen. That's just ugly, the military cabal really has to struggle to placate the mobs while also being mature and responsible.