Catalan separatists win election

[RandBlade]

In an election widely-viewed as a precursor to whether or not the relatively wealthy Catalonia region of Spain should hold an independence referendum, a majority of seats have gone to pro-independence Catalan parties: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20482719

However the victory was not as emphatic as they would have hoped for (the parties lost seats) and the Spanish constitution doesn't give them the right to hold referendums like that so it'll be interesting what happens next. With the Scottish also already having a now-agreed referendum in 2014 (which I hope gets a Yes, but expect a No) there could be some interesting break-ups of western European nations in the next few years. I'm not of any firm opinion (not knowing enough on the subject) as to whether or not Catalonia should go independent or not.

[Hazir]

I still don't quite understand how you turn losing 12 seats out of 62 into a victory. Of course ERC also won 21 seats, which doubles their support but besides them being a separatist party I don't really see what they have in common with the CiU which until recently was a party very much in charge and in favour of the present arrangement.

I don't think the fact that the Spanish constitution doesn't give them the right to a referendum is very relevant. There are ample examples in recent history in Europe that did away with the notion that the dominant ethnicity has the right to keep minorities under central rule.

[RandBlade]

Winning "50% + 1" is generally the threshold for winning an election, not winning more seats than last time. Yes the governing party may have won less (but I didn't say in header the CiU won a majority did I), but separatists won 71/135 seats. Last time I checked 71/135 is a majority, which is why I (like the news article I linked to) claimed separatists won the election, because they did.

[Hazir]

So, if CiU and PSOE happen to have a pro-bullfighting item in their platform you would have opened a thread 'bull torturers win elections in Catalonia". Or if CiU and PP agree on austerity ''Austerity wins in Catalan elections"? Elections are not won in that way in PR systems. Nothing is really won untill a coalition is formed.

[RandBlade]

If the election had already been both called and widely viewed as a quasi-referendum on austerity (as the Greek election earlier in the year was) or on bullfighting then yes.

[Loki]

According to the BBC, there are 4 pro-independence parties in the Catalan parliament, and their share of the vote increased.

[RandBlade]

I'm sure it didn't help the CiU that in the final days of the campaign that its leader was slandered with allegations of corruption. Doesn't help to discover the allegations are false too late - and some will always think "no smoke without fire".

But (if that was a factor) the votes the CiU lost went to other independence supporting parties while the main anti-independence parties vote collapsed - again in an election not just called on the question of independence, but where that was the main issue.

[Hazir]

According to the BBC, there are 4 pro-independence parties in the Catalan parliament, and their share of the vote increased.

Yes, but if they can't agree on anything else than the principle of Catalan independence, then there will not be a pro-independence government in Catalonia. A party that wants a negotiated independence is an entirely different beast than a party that wants independence no matter what.

If UKIP in the UK would win 40 seats, would that strengthen the position of the Conservatives?

[ar81]

Spain may be seen as one nation. But culturally it is a collage of very different cultures. Keeping them together is just absurd at this point.

[Dreadnaught]

I'm not sure this substantially impacts the general craptitude of Spain.

I'm more interested to see if France begins to experience some kind of freefall.

[Loki]

Yes, but if they can't agree on anything else than the principle of Catalan independence, then there will not be a pro-independence government in Catalonia. A party that wants a negotiated independence is an entirely different beast than a party that wants independence no matter what.

If UKIP in the UK would win 40 seats, would that strengthen the position of the Conservatives?

The question isn't whether it strengthens the position of one party; it's whether it strengthens the possibility of secession. I would think that the odds of Britain leaving the EU would increase if UKIP got 40 seats.

[RandBlade]

If UKIP in the UK would win 40 seats, would that strengthen the position of the Conservatives?

No, but nobody said it'd help the position of the CiU did they?

Imagine at the next election the Conservatives said they'd had enough of the Euro problems and wanted to pull the UK out of the EU [which to be abundantly clear isn't going to happen but lets play along] - and an election was called on those grounds. An election probably would have to be right now as the Lib-Dems and Labour would have a blocking majority against it. Also imagine that the election was dominated by the issue of should we leave the EU.

If that happened and the Conservatives won less seats - say falling from their current 303 to 295 - and UKIP rose from 0 to 40 then that'd mean anti-EU, pro-withdrawal parties would have 335 seats (its 326 to have a majority) - up from 303 prior to the election if the Conservatives had taken that stance alone. That would definitely strengthen the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU.

[Hazir]

The question isn't whether it strengthens the position of one party; it's whether it strengthens the possibility of secession. I would think that the odds of Britain leaving the EU would increase if UKIP got 40 seats.

No, but nobody said it'd help the position of the CiU did they?

Imagine at the next election the Conservatives said they'd had enough of the Euro problems and wanted to pull the UK out of the EU [which to be abundantly clear isn't going to happen but lets play along] - and an election was called on those grounds. An election probably would have to be right now as the Lib-Dems and Labour would have a blocking majority against it. Also imagine that the election was dominated by the issue of should we leave the EU.

If that happened and the Conservatives won less seats - say falling from their current 303 to 295 - and UKIP rose from 0 to 40 then that'd mean anti-EU, pro-withdrawal parties would have 335 seats (its 326 to have a majority) - up from 303 prior to the election if the Conservatives had taken that stance alone. That would definitely strengthen the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU.

In both cases; if the 'pro-independence' parties are not likely to want to cooperate, then the independence parties didn't win. They only win if they are able to form a coalition that is pro-independence (which is so unlikely that I would call it impossible in Catalonia today). Only then and not one second before do they win. In a PR system you only 'win' if you get either an absolute majority or if you negotiate your way into government. If neither of the two applies, you didn't win.

[RandBlade]

In a PR system you only 'win' if you get either an absolute majority or if you negotiate your way into government. If neither of the two applies, you didn't win.

Why only PR systems? In ALL Parliamentary systems regardless of voting method that's the case.

In Catalonia it seems equally unlikely any government can be formed that'd agree NOT to have an independence referendum.

[Hazir]

Why only PR systems? In ALL Parliamentary systems regardless of voting method that's the case.

In Catalonia it seems equally unlikely any government can be formed that'd agree NOT to have an independence referendum.

You know any fptp system that consistently delivers results with hung parliaments?

As for the referendum; we'll see.

[RandBlade]

You know any fptp system that consistently delivers results with hung parliaments?

As for the referendum; we'll see.

The likelihood of getting Hung Parliaments is moot, the idea you need 50%+1 in a Parliament to have a majority is true regardless.

I believe two years ago in a bizarre coincidence many major FPTP nations had Hung Parliaments simultaneously, as well as Australia which uses the even more extreme AV system.

India uses FPTP and relies on coalitions not single party majorities.