Israeli election

[Loki]

What happened?

Looks like a third of the Likud and YB supporters defected to Bennett's party and the new centrist bloc (I'm going to guess that a lot of the YB secular supporters jumped ship to the latter). Lapid's party is now ahead of Labor. Does that mean that more Israelis hate the orthodox than the amount who care about social issues?

[Hazir]

Can't say I followed it, but it seems like there's a bit of an upset ?

[Loki]

Netanyahu is likely (but not guaranteed) to form the next government, but with far fewer seats than he has now. The main beneficiaries from his loss of popularity (and Kadima's complete implosion) are a new religious Zionist party and a new anti-orthodox centrist party. There's a potential for a centrist coalition, but we'll probably end up with a right wing coalition (more right wing than the current one) with a bare majority.

[Hazir]

And elections again next year? I understand they couldn't get to a budget deal?

[GGT]

I don't follow Israeli politics much....but I'm under the impression that a majority of Israelis are unhappy with the ultra-orthodox factions that demand military exclusions plus entitlement programs, while they expand settlements in areas that aren't sanctioned (and are considered overt threats).

I'm also not an international policy expert, but have read enough news that Netanyahu's conservative mandates seem like he's willing to pit Israel's best ally (the US) against all else. Not sure that's a good tactic, strategy, or philosophy.

If the US is considered Israel's best ally....or its lone international ally....that's a big problem for Israel and its political leaders.

[Loki]

And elections again next year? I understand they couldn't get to a budget deal?

I'm no expert on Israeli politics, but their political system does seem to have stabilized in the last decade, where disagreements don't always lead to new elections. I also assume that an agreement on the future budget will be part of the coalition negotiations.

[Dreadnaught]

This is interesting...though seems like a lot of status quo.

I would much prefer the left's political advantage in Israel be in foreign affairs instead of economics. The Israeli economy has so much potential and Netanyahu unlocked a lot of it as Finance Minister in the last decade, but too much of the good momentum has been lost in a sort of post-USSR consolidation under various economic dynasties. Their economic liberalization must go further (if anything, break-up the oligopolies), not be stopped.

But it's hard not to look at the security situation and see a miserable ideological stalemate.

[wiggin]

Netanyahu is likely (but not guaranteed) to form the next government, but with far fewer seats than he has now. The main beneficiaries from his loss of popularity (and Kadima's complete implosion) are a new religious Zionist party and a new anti-orthodox centrist party. There's a potential for a centrist coalition, but we'll probably end up with a right wing coalition (more right wing than the current one) with a bare majority.

Yair Lapid's part is not so much anti-orthodox as it is anti-Haredi. His father's previous party, Shinui, was far more fiercely secular. I believe that an orthodox rabbi is actually on the Yesh Atid party list.

Otherwise, your basic analysis does not seem to be too far off. I think that a lot of people were turned off by the Likud-Yisrael Beitenu merger (especially since it places Avigdor Lieberman as a potential successor to Netanyahu), so they lost some votes for that. Much of YB's original supporters (Russian immigrants) were largely apathetic to the change and had low turnout. In addition, settler frustration with Netanyahu finally boiled over and formed a pretty large separate voting bloc (rather than just a faction inside Likud). That being said, the total number of seats going to right wing parties isn't really much lower than before - it's just that the makeup of other coalition partners has shifted significantly. A right wing coalition seems likely, though I suspect Netanyahu will try to form some sort of unity government with either Labor or Yesh Atid.

And elections again next year? I understand they couldn't get to a budget deal?

Unlikely. Israel's budget, while contentious, is generally under decent control. I don't see this government falling any time soon, absent an unforeseen event.

I don't follow Israeli politics much....but I'm under the impression that a majority of Israelis are unhappy with the ultra-orthodox factions that demand military exclusions plus entitlement programs, while they expand settlements in areas that aren't sanctioned (and are considered overt threats).

You're conflating two very different groups. Haredim dodge the draft and are a drag on the welfare state. While some Haredim do indeed live in settlements, they are generally not the contentious ones (being quite close to the Green Line), and they are not there for ideological reasons, but rather economic ones.

The 'settler movement' that is a problematic political obstacle is largely (though not exclusively) composed of hawkish members of the religious Zionist movement, who are most assuredly NOT Haredi. They are over-represented in the military (especially in combat units), generally are in the middle to upper classes, and are much more integrated into Israeli society.

These are two very distinct groups with different agendas and needs. Haredi needs are generally represented by Shas and UTJ; religious Zionists vote for a variety of parties, but the settler movement probably plumped for Naftali Bennett's HaBayit Hayehudi and Likud.

This is interesting...though seems like a lot of status quo.

I would much prefer the left's political advantage in Israel be in foreign affairs instead of economics. The Israeli economy has so much potential and Netanyahu unlocked a lot of it as Finance Minister in the last decade, but too much of the good momentum has been lost in a sort of post-USSR consolidation under various economic dynasties. Their economic liberalization must go further (if anything, break-up the oligopolies), not be stopped.

But it's hard not to look at the security situation and see a miserable ideological stalemate.

I think the issue of economic concentration in Israel is a tough one that might not be best solved by willy-nilly liberalization. Netanyahu appointed a panel to look into the issue, and most of their suggestions had less to do with free markets and more to do with regulations about holding groups and the like. I grant that it's a challenging issue, though, and I agree that in principle Netanyahu's overall market-oriented reforms in the last 15 years have dramatically improved the competitiveness of the Israeli economy. There's a long way to go, still.

I'm afraid that this campaign spent very little time discussing the Palestinians, or even Iran. It was mostly focused on domestic issues; perhaps not unreasonably so, but it does mean that we can expect a whole lot of nothing to change on that front.

[Loki]

Sorry, I meant haredi.

Regarding your last sentence, a few papers had an opposite take: by not having a platform, Likud is free to choose any policy it wishes (within boundaries of acceptability to Likud's constituents). Personally, I'm not sure either version is true. Netanyahu will do what he wants to do, whether it goes against past promises or not. Hesitation and ambivalence are not his flaws.

As for the religious Zionists voting for Bennett, who does that leave as the Likud base (beyond economic liberals)? If most of them abandoned Likud, doesn't that mean that Likud has much less of an impetus to support settlers?

[wiggin]

Netanyahu did make a few promises that effectively guaranteed a stalemate. Notably, shortly before the election he promised not to dismantle any settlements during his term (probably to try to take some votes from Bennett). That's a pretty tall order, and effectively rules out fruitful negotiations with Palestinians. Regardless, the reason I think foreign policy didn't factor much into the campaign wasn't because of some grand electoral strategy on Netanyahu's part, but because Israelis are sick and tired of it, and they're more or less okay with the status quo. I don't see that fundamental dynamic changing in the near future.

To answer your second question, it's that there are religious Zionists and religious Zionists. Bennett's party got most of the right wing settler vote, but there's plenty of other religious Zionists out there who are right wing but not crazy right wing. A lot of them likely voted for Likud. Likud is also a natural immigrant party - they have far more immigrants (from the FSU and Anglo speaking countries) in high positions in the party than their competitors, and so plenty of immigrants - even if not being particularly right wing - will vote for them. Then, of course, there's the economically liberal (small l liberal), the wealthy, and the hawkish but secular crowd. I'd say of the religious Zionists I know, if they support Likud it is only grudgingly. In comparison, I know lots of secular hawkish Zionists who are whole-hearted supporters. Likud does not really see the 'religious' part of religious Zionist as its natural constituency.

Looking at the final results, I think Netanyahu should be able to eke out a small majority. He only needs to bribe either Shaul Mofaz or Tzipi Livni (whose parties had dismal showings and will likely be merged into other parties for next election) with a ministerial post, and he can make a right wing coalition with Bennett, Shas, and UTJ. Alternatively, he could use the fear of Bennett's influence on the coalition to convince Yesh Atid or Labor to hold their noses and join the coalition. Difficult, perhaps, given the electoral results, but not impossible.

[earthJoker]

What happened?

I am also confused. A week ago the polls were so different, how could that happen. I blame the Madrid bombings.

[Loki]

Actually, the polls from last week were pretty accurate.

To answer your second question, it's that there are religious Zionists and religious Zionists. Bennett's party got most of the right wing settler vote, but there's plenty of other religious Zionists out there who are right wing but not crazy right wing. A lot of them likely voted for Likud. Likud is also a natural immigrant party - they have far more immigrants (from the FSU and Anglo speaking countries) in high positions in the party than their competitors, and so plenty of immigrants - even if not being particularly right wing - will vote for them. Then, of course, there's the economically liberal (small l liberal), the wealthy, and the hawkish but secular crowd. I'd say of the religious Zionists I know, if they support Likud it is only grudgingly. In comparison, I know lots of secular hawkish Zionists who are whole-hearted supporters. Likud does not really see the 'religious' part of religious Zionist as its natural constituency.

What I would be interested in is roughly what portion of the Likud supporters each bloc makes up.

[earthJoker]

Actually, the polls from last week were pretty accurate.

Didn't they predicted 37 seats for Likut and Beitenu? That's what is in the news I read. They got 31 as far as I read. On 120 seats that 5% off.

[Loki]

Didn't they predicted 37 seats for Likut and Beitenu? That's what is in the news I read. They got 31 as far as I read. On 120 seats that 5% off.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli...#Opinion_polls They were 2 seats off on one party, and 6 another. Otherwise, they were almost spot on.

[wiggin]

What I would be interested in is roughly what portion of the Likud supporters each bloc makes up.

I'm sure that Likud has done detailed polling sorting this out, but I'm afraid I haven't really looked for it. It probably fluctuates a lot, though a not-too-accurate proxy might be to look at the proportions among the party membership. That's only about 125k people, though.

[earthJoker]

"17 January 2013 Maariv/Ma'agar Mochot" was the one I read and it is not 2 and 6 off. But the discrepancies between the polls is already enough to show that they were not that accurate. Of course one of them will likely fit in the end.

[wiggin]

eJ, most of the opinion polling was converging on the final count, which is pretty good for a parliamentary system and number of undecideds (it is almost certainly the undecided votes which gave Yesh Atid so many seats). The Maariv poll was clearly an outlier. You just read weird news sources if that was the only poll they mentioned. For weeks Likud has been polling in the low to mid 30s.

[earthJoker]

Well that's the problem when you reading second hand news.

[Loki]

"17 January 2013 Maariv/Ma'agar Mochot" was the one I read and it is not 2 and 6 off. But the discrepancies between the polls is already enough to show that they were not that accurate. Of course one of them will likely fit in the end.

Any individual poll has a high margin of error. An average of polls tends to be far more accurate.

[wiggin]

Are you secretly Nate Silver? Because now that you mention it, I kinda see the resemblance. If I squint.

[Loki]

Law of large numbers and all that.