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Thread: The Cash Money Debate: Is The Western Economy Getting Better?

  1. #61
    True, but some of those spending "habits" are baked in high COL, not necessarily choice. Housing and healthcare primarily, but also secondary education, and even transportation.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Millions of employed people have terrible savings habits and no self-control when it comes to spending.
    The system creates incentives to spend. Economy is a videogame with some non intuitive hidden rules some players discover the hard way. Buy now, because:
    * Tomorrow it may be more expensive
    * We may run out of stock
    * You may win a prize if you buy now.
    * Social pressure to show off that you have "style" (live like rich).
    * There are plenty of incentives at stores so people buy like crazy, like black friday discounts, or others.

    In Japan, the system creates incentives not to spend. Deflation creates a great incentive not to spend money and to buy government bonds. Deflation increases profitability of bond rates. Deflation makes people to procrastinate purchases, as the more you wait, the cheaper it is.

    People just play with the rules. Who would guess that the best move is to go agaisnt the system?

    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    True, but some of those spending "habits" are baked in high COL, not necessarily choice. Housing and healthcare primarily, but also secondary education, and even transportation.
    There are some markets where price is inelastic (people pay whatever price to stay alive), does not change when supply/demand changes. Healthcare is one of them. Also, customers suffer asimetric information (dopctors know a lot, you do not), so customers are unable to determine the quality or efficiency of healthcare services. These two single rules make health economy to be one of the most complex branches of economy, where conventional wisdom about competition, free market, etc does not work.

    For example, there may be lots of hospitals and lots of ambulance companies. If you suffer an accident, the first ambulance in place with pick you up and will deliver you to the closest hospital. You had no way to choose. There is no choice. Ask an ambulance to take you to the next hospital and they may refuse as if you die they may get sued.

    If you are not conscious, you may not go through paperwork for pre-approved ambulance expenses.
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    True, but some of those spending "habits" are baked in high COL, not necessarily choice. Housing and healthcare primarily, but also secondary education, and even transportation.
    Once you control for education level (i.e. large cities have lots of poorly educated immigrants), there isn't any more poverty in large cities than smaller ones. The cost of living might be higher, but so are the salaries. And there are generally ways to save money if one looks hard enough.

    Quote Originally Posted by ar81 View Post
    The system creates incentives to spend. Economy is a videogame with some non intuitive hidden rules some players discover the hard way. Buy now, because:
    * Tomorrow it may be more expensive
    * We may run out of stock
    * You may win a prize if you buy now.
    * Social pressure to show off that you have "style" (live like rich).
    * There are plenty of incentives at stores so people buy like crazy, like black friday discounts, or others.

    In Japan, the system creates incentives not to spend. Deflation creates a great incentive not to spend money and to buy government bonds. Deflation increases profitability of bond rates. Deflation makes people to procrastinate purchases, as the more you wait, the cheaper it is.

    People just play with the rules. Who would guess that the best move is to go agaisnt the system?
    Inflation in the West is generally 2-3% a year. Hardly a reason to to spend now. As for the other things, anyone with an ounce of self-control would steer clear.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I don't think you'd enjoy leisure time as much if that's all you had. The grass is always greener and all that.
    My last year of college I wasn't working and after I graduated I had 3 months of glorious leisure time before I found a position. I admit that 30 years is different then 3 months but with all the potential things I could be doing I really don't think I'll be bored.

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Once you control for education level (i.e. large cities have lots of poorly educated immigrants), there isn't any more poverty in large cities than smaller ones. The cost of living might be higher, but so are the salaries. And there are generally ways to save money if one looks hard enough.
    Those factoids are changing in the 'new economy'. In general, college grads have higher employment rates and wages....but almost half are under-empolyed or not working in their chosen field at all, and many are loaded with debt. Their starting wages are equal to 1970's rates adjusted for inflation, and don't keep pace with costs of housing or healthcare (as % of income). That's why they're being called the Boomerang Generation and moving back home with parents.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Roth IRAs actually have no effective contribution limit any more. You can roll over any amount of money you want from a 401(k) into a Roth IRA, as long as you pay taxes on it. And taxable accounts, of course, have no limits at all.
    Isn't that tax rate something like 10% on top of one-time income taxes paid upon rollover? Doesn't seem like it's worth it...

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    Isn't that tax rate something like 10% on top of one-time income taxes paid upon rollover? Doesn't seem like it's worth it...
    No, it's just counted as ordinary income. So, whatever your marginal rate is, which would be how you'd fund a Roth IRA anyways.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Why would you want to retire by 55? Are you engaged in boring, back-breaking labor? I'd be bored if I was just sitting at home. I don't intend to retire until I can't work anymore.
    That's because you're using an academic metric for "work". That's a fairly derogatory attitude toward people who've worked 30+ years as laborers.

    I'd say plenty of hard-working laborers need to retire long before they're 65-67 years old. And their retirement isn't "just sitting at home". Well, unless their bodies are so debilitated from their labor that's all they can manage.

  9. #69
    Um, if you read what I actually wrote, it's pretty clear that I do think that manual laborers have a good reason for wanting to retire early...I also know Lewk isn't engaged in manual labor.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Um, if you read what I actually wrote, it's pretty clear that I do think that manual laborers have a good reason for wanting to retire early...I also know Lewk isn't engaged in manual labor.
    Oh, I read and understood your post. I was nitpicking at your insinuation that manual workers retire to boredom, sitting around at home all day. Unlike academics, who sit all day long, for decades, and get paid for it.

  11. #71
    They also go to conferences and talk with their colleagues and sometimes perv on college girls
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  12. #72
    Tax deductible, of course.

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    They also go to conferences and talk with their colleagues and sometimes perv on college girls
    I have several professors in their mid to late 50s who regularly work 60 hour weeks, and this excludes hours spent replying to emails (you can't imagine how many) and seeing students.
    Last edited by Loki; 02-06-2013 at 03:42 PM.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I have several professors in their mid to late 50s who regularly work 60 hour weeks, and this includes hours spent replying to emails (you can't imagine how many) and seeing students.
    I know, these people are often workaholics in ways both good and bad.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Those factoids are changing in the 'new economy'. In general, college grads have higher employment rates and wages....but almost half are under-empolyed or not working in their chosen field at all, and many are loaded with debt. Their starting wages are equal to 1970's rates adjusted for inflation, and don't keep pace with costs of housing or healthcare (as % of income). That's why they're being called the Boomerang Generation and moving back home with parents.
    Wealthiest US colleges suing students over default loans
    http://rt.com/usa/news/us-colleges-suing-students-539/

    And the outlook looks grim...

    Debt crisis looming as Washington 'hides the real fiscal cliff numbers’
    http://rt.com/usa/news/debt-crisis-us-kotlikoff-535/
    The US national debt is twenty times higher than is officially reported, approaching $222 trillion, and today’s children could soon be paying their parent’s debts, reputed American economist Laurence Kotlikoff told RT.

    JIM ROGERS: The Government Is Lying About Inflation And It's Crushing The Consumer
    http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-r...onsumer-2012-3
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  16. #76
    Finally seeing some realism popping into the press. I can only hope for some correction and then I'll buy some things.

    Meanwhile I'm hoping to invest in a kid's shoe maker. Kid's shoes are a fucking insane business.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Because you lose access to the money. That money could be used more productively if it's liquid. Plus a dollar today is worth more than a dollar 40 years in the future.
    Ironically, Loki, this is how many hedge funds shear IRAs and 401Ks institutions. Run up a stock on a pump and dump, and institutions pay for it. The lower return is seemingly OK because of the tax advantage.

    Government!

  18. #78
    Pump and dumps are illegal. If you know of any hedge fund doing this, report them to the FTC.

  19. #79
    Not only that, but most reasonable institutional investors don't get fleeced in such schemes. It's more the day traders (and, admittedly, some dumb fund managers) who get caught on such short term shenanigans.

    I do think that the new thing is the whole 'public short' deal. There are all these investors (lately, in Chinese equities) who reveal serious fundamental issues with the company (funny accounting, overvalued assets, whatever) - purportedly just to inform the public. A number of these funds have large short positions, though. Even if their critique is accurate (which is often is, at least partially), it ends up being a big moneymaker for them.

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