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Thread: So, North Korea...

  1. #1
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Default So, North Korea...

    ... any bets on when the Chinese government is fed up with the antics of those guys and simply decides to glass the country? I don't imagine that Beijing is very happy about them.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  2. #2
    Not bloody likely.

  3. #3
    About never.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #4
    China puts up with NK kidnapping and sometimes shooting their citizens, regular thefts, and so much more without ever retaliating beyond temporarily cutting off aid every once in a while, so I don't think NK's current hijinks are going to lead to a glassing.

  5. #5
    Stingy DM Veldan Rath's Avatar
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    How about China not coming to the aid of NK if they create a military incident?
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  6. #6
    I don't think they will either way.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  7. #7
    Stingy DM Veldan Rath's Avatar
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    While I like that idea, part of me thinks that they would come to NK's aid, just to flex muscle/protect reputation on their sphere of influence.

    Again, China's military involvement being off the table would be a relief.
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  8. #8
    Too much to lose and to little to gain from the intervention (there's also the fact that the intervention would inevitably fail). I have no doubt that China would publicly protest and perhaps try to do something at the UN, but a military intervention is unthinkable.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  9. #9
    Stingy DM Veldan Rath's Avatar
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    How so? They did it before. Have they come along that far?
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  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Veldan Rath View Post
    How about China not coming to the aid of NK if they create a military incident?
    That would depend on how far the response to the incident went. China would probably allow a few punitive actions *guided strikes on some depots, that sort of thing* but they'd step in for anything more than that. Or more accurately they would make it clear that they are distressed enough to step in if we don't cut it right the fuck out and we will listen and stop.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  11. #11
    Stingy DM Veldan Rath's Avatar
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    You and Loki seem to disagree
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  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Veldan Rath View Post
    How so? They did it before. Have they come along that far?
    They were a revolutionary regime ruled by a revolutionary leader who didn't give a damn about the economy or the well-being of his country. The leader was also fairly confident that he'd stay in power even if his country's economy (which wasn't particularly large to start with) was destroyed. A war with the US, even a small one, would undermine the legitimacy of the modern Chinese regime, quite possibly leading to a civil war. North Korea simply isn't worth it.

    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    That would depend on how far the response to the incident went. China would probably allow a few punitive actions *guided strikes on some depots, that sort of thing* but they'd step in for anything more than that. Or more accurately they would make it clear that they are distressed enough to step in if we don't cut it right the fuck out and we will listen and stop.
    Xi has a pretty firm control over the military. They'd give him trouble only if the US was clearly responsible for the aggression. I suppose China would become concerned if the US tried to occupy all of North Korea, but that's not terribly likely to happen. I also think that South Korea can arrange a quid pro quo with in exchange for not intervening military if South Korea decides to topple the North Korean regime as a result of some severe provocation. China isn't so isolated that it's desperate to retain a single ally, especially when that ally is anything but useful or reliable.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  13. #13
    You can bet US and Chinese officials are even now hashing out a deal which dictate how they'll both respond in the event of the Norks going apeshit.
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  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    You can bet US and Chinese officials are even now hashing out a deal which dictate how they'll both respond in the event of the Norks going apeshit.
    Are you certain about that? I think that policymaking in China is hardly so orderly; even if it were, I doubt whether they'd be willing to deal with the US in such a frank matter on such a strategically critical topic. I'm certain the US is talking to China - probably trying to get them to exert pressure on NK and warning of the potential for rapid escalation into a shooting war - and I'm sure China is doing a lot of serious thinking right now. But coordination on the scale you suggest?

    I personally have no idea what China will do if things get out of hand. Seemingly, NK is more of a headache for them than an asset, but I don't think Chinese officials see it the same way I do. If a real war were to develop, it's certainly possible they'll sit on the sidelines provided the fighting is the result of a clear NK attack. Even then, though, I think they will be tempted to intervene to prop up the regime (perhaps with some modification at the top) - though I doubt they would directly challenge the US or SK.

    I'm just fervently hoping that the bellicose rhetoric is just that, and NK backs down from the rather alarming position they've recently taken. If a war develops (more than just a tit-for-tat incident), it's almost certain that hundreds of thousands would die, by conservative estimates.

  15. #15
    With the nuclear arsenals of three separate parties involved, you'd better hope they are. The potential consequences of a miscalculation or misunderstanding are extraordinarily grave. At the very least, one would hope both sides have made it clear to the other where their red lines are.
    When the sky above us fell
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  16. #16
    In other news, Anonymous hacked NK. Amusing, but probably not very helpful.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    They were a revolutionary regime ruled by a revolutionary leader who didn't give a damn about the economy or the well-being of his country. The leader was also fairly confident that he'd stay in power even if his country's economy (which wasn't particularly large to start with) was destroyed. A war with the US, even a small one, would undermine the legitimacy of the modern Chinese regime, quite possibly leading to a civil war. North Korea simply isn't worth it.



    Xi has a pretty firm control over the military. They'd give him trouble only if the US was clearly responsible for the aggression. I suppose China would become concerned if the US tried to occupy all of North Korea, but that's not terribly likely to happen. I also think that South Korea can arrange a quid pro quo with in exchange for not intervening military if South Korea decides to topple the North Korean regime as a result of some severe provocation. China isn't so isolated that it's desperate to retain a single ally, especially when that ally is anything but useful or reliable.
    It's not that it's interested in North Korea as an ally. It's that China is still very interested in probably-outmoded ideas on the importance of buffers and borders. It does not WANT a border controlled by South Korea or any other close ally of the US and/or functional Western democracy. China is not going to allow major Western action against a bordering client state. They'll take it over themselves before things reach that point but it is extremely unlikely they'll even accept things moving that far from the status quo anytime in the next five to six years. They won't be intervening but that will be because they will have made it clear to us, the South Koreans, the Japanese, and the Russians that they'll only tolerate any of us going so far and we'll have accepted that because with the possible exception of the South Koreans all of us would have more problems with a pissed off China than with an acting-out North Korea and we'd sit on the South Koreans.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  18. #18
    China won't want to take action directly in North Korea. The biggest risk of a wider conflagration I suspect is not that the Chinese step in to NK ... but that while we're distracted with the North Koreans the Chinese use the opportunity to take some action regarding Taiwan or the Senkaku Islands.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #19
    Imagine how much fun this crap is going to be when they do it again in five years, when they actually do have missiles that can reach the US.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    With the nuclear arsenals of three separate parties involved, you'd better hope they are. The potential consequences of a miscalculation or misunderstanding are extraordinarily grave. At the very least, one would hope both sides have made it clear to the other where their red lines are.
    When China cuts off military-military contacts over every little tiff over weapons sales to Taiwan or whatever, I'm skeptical of their good sense on this issue.

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    When China cuts off military-military contacts over every little tiff over weapons sales to Taiwan or whatever, I'm skeptical of their good sense on this issue.
    We know what China is willing to accept and China knows what we're willing to accept. Just because China's foreign policy isn't controlled by a single apolitical rational man (hint: neither do we) doesn't mean we should assume it will engage in a highly self-destructive foreign policy.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  22. #22
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    According to our newspapers, North Korea "suggested" the evacuation of their embassies not only to western countries but also to China.

    Not a very clever move in my eyes.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  23. #23
    I sorta agree with those who say their evacuation suggestion is evidence they are bluffing. If they were serious, they would take ambassadors hostage.

  24. #24
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  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    I sorta agree with those who say their evacuation suggestion is evidence they are bluffing. If they were serious, they would take ambassadors hostage.
    The narrative they've been pushing is that the US is attacking them, and they only want to nuke everybody in self-defence. This fits with that narrative; they're asking the embassies to evacuate to keep them safe from the evul Americans. I wouldn't take it as evidence that they're bluffing.

    I agree with Khen that this isn't a very smart move on their part. The move can be interpreted in a couple of different ways, and none of them are good.

  26. #26
    There is a long list of wars that occurred despite neither side initially wanting a war. Kim is really backing himself into a corner here. If he doesn't do anything overtly hostile, he risks being discredited at home. The question is if this act will be sufficiently provocative to produce a severe provocation from the other side. If so, all bets are off. I still don't think that we'll see a war, but we're getting into very dangerous territory. All it will take is a few misunderstandings and overreactions.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  27. #27
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Yeah, just imagine a training exercise where someone gets excited.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  28. #28
    It's entirely possible we'll see violence but we won't see a war. It doesn't really matter if Kim is backing himself into a corner because Kim isn't really in control. It's not a communist autocracy anymore, it probably wasn't even in Jong il's last years. The politico-military elements controlling the country no longer form a coherent whole. North Korea appears to be more or less intact on the surface because everyone involved has avoided putting real pressure on it since no one wants to see the results of it overtly looking like Somalia. If things do end up going all to hell what we will see is China selecting a faction and backing them as they eradicate their fellows and take over the country, hopefully creating a somewhat less dysfunctional autocracy in the process. And we'll let them because they're the only ones with sufficient penetration to get the job done.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  29. #29
    The country might have factionalized, but Kim (and his backers) have the power of the state, and there have already been several purges in the last few years (including right before Kim Jong-Il's death). Anyone who goes directly against Kim's interests or is perceived to have the capacity to do so gets the ax. This kind of system can function only as long as the leadership maintains the loyalty and respect of the elites. A huge loss of face could very well destabilize the political system, allowing officials to criticize Kim and his people without fear of severe reprisals. And once that occurs, all bets are off.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  30. #30
    My read is that Kim (and his backers) have the power of the state because their own lieutenants and the other factions *and they themselves* do not have a compelling reason to change that state of affairs. It's entirely possible that so far it has been made clear to them that China would look quite disfavorably on anyone rocking the boat. I think if their massive neighbor was not underwriting the status quo things would be rather more visibly chaotic in North Korea. The current Kim has simply not had the time to secure a truly independent power base, something that is not a less-than-fully-reliable legacy of his father's. As you say, the system relies on loyalty and respect from the elites *or calculated self-interest that sufficiently mirrors them* and what the current regime has is pretty much just fear. I'm not making predictions about what happens if things continue as they are, I'm prognosticating on what happens if they don't. You say all bets are off but I think I've got good money on the result.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

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