Ukraine

[Loki]

Russia set up the entire conflict. Georgia rose to the provocation, but the whole thing was an act used by Russia to accomplish a preconceived objective. And regardless of whether Georgia was right or wrong in bombing South Ossetia, Russia had no legal right to intervene. It certainly didn't have a legal right to conquer a larger chunk of Abkhazia. Doing nothing in 2008 emboldened Russia today. Russia knows that it has to pay a higher cost for Ukraine than for Georgia, but considering that the latter was virtually 0, why not take the gamble?

The problem with getting a friendly government in Ukraine is that there's no guarantee that government remains friendly (see Kuchma) or that the friendly government wouldn't get replaced by an unfriendly one (twice now). I should note that Russia hasn't tried anything as provocative against Estonia and Latvia since the two joined NATO.

Using all the tools at our disposal might or might not get Russia to back off in this case, but it will send a clear message in future cases. And just what kind of a message are we sending to countries whose security we are guaranteeing and countries that are considering getting nuclear weapons when we so blatantly disregard the Budapest Memorandum? We should stop worrying so much about offending baby Putin's feelings and send a clear message to both Russia and the rest of the world that this kind of behavior is a clear violation of international norms and we're willing to take punitive steps against anyone who engages in this kind of behavior. All I hear right now is a whole bunch of semi-condemnations with no teeth attached. Given Putin's pattern of previous behavior, he might very well take that as a sign that we'd do nothing if he tries to grab the rest of eastern Ukraine.

If Russia is so willing to piss us off, I fail to see why we don't reciprocate. We should take Russia's ongoing aggression in Moldova and Georgia to every international body that's willing to listen. We should do the same against Russia's Armenian ally. Make them squirm. I don't care if no international body actually has the power to rule against Russia; we can embarrass Russia and we can do so over a prolonged period of time.

[RandBlade]

The problem is realistically trade sanctions won't bite Russia. Europe is not energy independent and many states are reliant on Gazprom.

[earthJoker]

The markets seem to see it differently. Russian markets including Gasprom dropped drastically this morning.

[GGT]

Gazprom is part of the problem. In larger context, energy policy.

[Flixy]

Perhaps if we took a stronger stand about Georgia in 2008, this wouldn't be happening now. I recall saying as much back then.

So why aren't you working at the state department?

[GGT]

Using all the tools at our disposal might or might not get Russia to back off in this case, but it will send a clear message in future cases.

And just what kind of a message are we sending to countries whose security we are guaranteeing and countries that are considering getting nuclear weapons when we so blatantly disregard the Budapest Memorandum?

We should stop worrying so much about offending baby Putin's feelings and send a clear message to both Russia and the rest of the world that this kind of behavior is a clear violation of international norms and we're willing to take punitive steps against anyone who engages in this kind of behavior.

All I hear right now is a whole bunch of semi-condemnations with no teeth attached. Given Putin's pattern of previous behavior, he might very well take that as a sign that we'd do nothing if he tries to grab the rest of eastern Ukraine.

If Russia is so willing to piss us off, I fail to see why we don't reciprocate. We should take Russia's ongoing aggression in Moldova and Georgia to every international body that's willing to listen. We should do the same against Russia's Armenian ally. Make them squirm. I don't care if no international body actually has the power to rule against Russia; we can embarrass Russia and we can do so over a prolonged period of time.

You're being fairly loose with "we" and "us", and pretty much every 'collective' term in International Relations. I'm sorry if this has more emotional ramifications for you, as a Russian emigrant, Loki. But I don't think you make a good case for the US intervening to make Putin squirm, or embarrass Russian nationals.

[Wraith]

Why do you have to make it personal, GGT?

[Flixy]

You're being fairly loose with "we" and "us", and pretty much every 'collective' term in International Relations. I'm sorry if this has more emotional ramifications for you, as a Russian emigrant, Loki. But I don't think you make a good case for the US intervening to make Putin squirm, or embarrass Russian nationals.

I have no personal connection to this and see plenty ofreasons to intervene.

[GGT]

Well, everything is ultimately "personal" in US politics. I don't think it's unreasonable to task someone like Loki, who has immigrant roots and academic prowess, with IR policies.

[RandBlade]

We is fairly standard linguistics for referring to your own nation or even your own nation and allies. Not remotely loose.

[GGT]

We is fairly standard linguistics for referring to your own nation or even your own nation and allies. Not remotely loose.

That's obvious. I take exception to the use of "We", used by politically motivated groups.

[Veldan Rath]

Loki is a politcally motivated group?

You don't see Putin gobbling up countries as an issue?

[Steely Glint]

[Steely Glint]

I would love it if we could do something that would really hurt Russia, short of a military intervention, but I really haven't a clue what it should be.

Military intervention... in Syria.

[Loki]

The problem is realistically trade sanctions won't bite Russia. Europe is not energy independent and many states are reliant on Gazprom.

Even natural resources aside, Russia trades quite extensively with Europe. Russia also depends on FDI (mainly for technology) from the West in its energy sector. As earth says, the markets are already making clear what Russia can expect if it continues this kind of behavior.

Military intervention... in Syria.

A good move in terms of spite, but unfortunately the situation there has deteriorated to the point where it might be too dangerous to get involved.

So why aren't you working at the state department?

Precisely because they don't listen.

[Loki]

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/03/3/7017330/ Russia is threatening to start an attack against Ukrainian military bases in the Crimea at 5 AM local time tomorrow.

[Flixy]

Even natural resources aside, Russia trades quite extensively with Europe. Russia also depends on FDI (mainly for technology) from the West in its energy sector. As earth says, the markets are already making clear what Russia can expect if it continues this kind of behavior.

FDI?

Czechs already announced they are very likely to deny Russia bidding for a 7 billion euro nuclear power plant project.

A good move in terms of spite, but unfortunately the situation there has deteriorated to the point where it might be too dangerous to get involved.

Well, if you do want to go that road, news reported today that there are allegations of poison gas used by the military there, again. So either that's a fabrication to get USA involved because they might want to do something in return for Ukraine, or perhaps Assad thinks the world is distracted enough right now to use it. Or another party used it and tries to shift the blame. Or.. well, I guess things are not very clear over there.

[Loki]

Foreign direct investment. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...nt/493559.html

The problem in Syria right now is that even if we topple the government, the civil war will drag on. And then we'll have even fewer options at our disposal.

[Steely Glint]

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/03/3/7017330/ Russia is threatening to start an attack against Ukrainian military bases in the Crimea at 5 AM local time tomorrow.

The Black Sea Fleet is now saying they issued no such ultimatum.

[Loki]

Yeah, and reporters who were there are saying otherwise. Perhaps the Russians were trying to provoke a response and had their bluff called? I think they're still trying to provoke Ukraine into acting first.

[Steely Glint]

Classic bully tactics there. "oh, did you think I was going to hit you?"

[Loki]

It looks like Russia isn't quite as stupid as it seemed. I'm guessing the main plan is to maintain a military presence in the Crimea until the referendum on March 30 (for independence) and then cement Russian control over the peninsula. Unless someone rises to a provocation first.

[earthJoker]

I would love it if we could do something that would really hurt Russia, short of a military intervention, but I really haven't a clue what it should be.

Expel them from the ESC?

[Loki]

Hey, we don't want to start a nuclear war here.

[earthJoker]

Well, it could be Putin's Waterloo!

[Steely Glint]

Does anyone really have a massive problem with Russia gaining the Crimea? It was only part of Ukraine because one of the Soviet leaders (kruschev?) was drunk one day, or something, and I forsee nothing but problems if it remains part of Ukraine. Just so long as they don't try and expand into the rest of the Ukraine.

[Loki]

I have a problem with how Russia has gone about doing it. And do you realize how many other pieces of land have exchanged hands since 1954? You think the Israelis would mind giving up the Golan Heights? Would the Chinese mind giving up Aksai Chin? Or perhaps the Russians can give back the chunk of Finland they took in 1940?

[Wraith]

Does anyone really have a massive problem with Russia gaining the Crimea? It was only part of Ukraine because one of the Soviet leaders (kruschev?) was drunk one day, or something, and I forsee nothing but problems if it remains part of Ukraine. Just so long as they don't try and expand into the rest of the Ukraine.

Poland seems to object pretty strongly to any Russian territorial gains.

[Steely Glint]

Given that nothing short of war is going to convince Putin to give up the Crimea at this stage, I think the best course of action is to write it off as a bad job and make sure he doesn't go all the way to Kiev to reinstall his pet thug.

[Loki]

The point isn't to take the Crimea back; it's to force Russia to pay a sufficiently high cost as to A ) make continued occupation financially and politically unwise, and B ) to make Russia think twice about pulling this kind of shit in the future. As I said before, if we forced Russia to pay a high price for the intervention into Georgia, we wouldn't be talking about the Crimea today.