Ukraine

[Loki]

The Kremlin’s own pollster released a survey on Monday that showed 73% of Russians reject it. In phrasing its question to 1600 respondents across the country, the state-funded sociologists at WCIOM were clearly trying to get as much support for the intervention as possible: “Should Russia react to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine?” they asked. Only 15% said yes – hardly a national consensus.

https://news.yahoo.com/4-reasons-put...211452971.html

Should be interesting to see if those numbers change now that the propaganda war is in full operation.

[Flixy]

News reports here that Russian soldiers fired warning shots at a group of unarmed Ukrain soldiers who marched to an occupied base to demand it back.

[RandBlade]

Steely somewhat has a point. Crimea was for centuries part of Russia and Ukraine is a very schizophrenic nation, one part largely Russian-history and one part largely European Austrian/Polish-history. The irony is that if Russia essentially annexes Crimea, or it becomes independent (which I believe it was already having a referendum about) and the remainder of the Ukraine is democratic then Putin has just pushed the demographics of Ukraine heavily towards Europe.

I'd be very concerned that Putin may decide to do a land grab for the other ethnically Russian provinces.

[earthJoker]

I'd be very concerned that Putin may decide to do a land grab for the others ethnically Russian provinces.

Exactly, problem is, the other are much more mixed.

^^ Percentage of Ukrainian speaking population.

It may not worth fighting for the Crimea for the Ukrainian government, but surely it will be worth fighting for Odessa.

[Flixy]

Exactly, problem is, the other are much more mixed.

^^ Percentage of Ukrainian speaking population.

It may not worth fighting for the Crimea for the Ukrainian government, but surely it will be worth fighting for Odessa.

Plus I'm assuming not all Russian speakers actually want to be annexed by Russia - Klitsjko (however you spell it, the boxer / opposition leader) is also a Russian speaker, natively, for example.

[Loki]

Exactly, problem is, the other are much more mixed.

It's more mixed than that:

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine.../25279292.html

The Russians are generally limited to the large cities. A vast majority of the territory is inhabited by Ukrainian-speakers. And as was pointed out, a large portion of Russian-speakers still consider themselves Ukrainian.

Its the two Eastern provinces I've read Russia might want to grab which makes sense from your image. The more Russia grabs (without taking control of Ukraine) the more reason Ukraine will have to turn against Russia both demographically and because they're threatened.

It's too late at this point. No political party in Ukraine can now take a pro-Russian line without being branded a traitor. Regardless of how this situation ends, Russia has destroyed its Ukrainian policy for at least several decades. From now on, it will have no rely on brute force alone.

[earthJoker]

It's more mixed than that:

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine.../25279292.html

I posted the best map I found in reasonable time. Other maps were much less accurate, just showing majorities and not percentages.

[Flixy]

It's more mixed than that:

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine.../25279292.html

The Russians are generally limited to the large cities. A vast majority of the territory is inhabited by Ukrainian-speakers. And as was pointed out, a large portion of Russian-speakers still consider themselves Ukrainian.

Then again, who needs broad support for joining Russia when you can just declare it by decree?

[Loki]

Steely somewhat has a point. Crimea was for centuries part of Russia and Ukraine is a very schizophrenic nation, one part largely Russian-history and one part largely European Austrian/Polish-history. The irony is that if Russia essentially annexes Crimea, or it becomes independent (which I believe it was already having a referendum about) and the remainder of the Ukraine is democratic then Putin has just pushed the demographics of Ukraine heavily towards Europe.

I'd be very concerned that Putin may decide to do a land grab for the other ethnically Russian provinces.

It was part of Russia for under 200 years. After Russia conquered it from the Turks committed ethnic cleansing.

Would surely be nice for them to get a bite of the second richest region of the Ukraine

The wealth there is artificial. They have Soviet-era factories that can't compete in the global markets, and survive only based on substantial subsidies from the Ukrainian government and preferential treatment in Russia.

[wiggin]

Steely somewhat has a point. Crimea was for centuries part of Russia and Ukraine is a very schizophrenic nation, one part largely Russian-history and one part largely European Austrian/Polish-history. The irony is that if Russia essentially annexes Crimea, or it becomes independent (which I believe it was already having a referendum about) and the remainder of the Ukraine is democratic then Putin has just pushed the demographics of Ukraine heavily towards Europe.

I'd be very concerned that Putin may decide to do a land grab for the other ethnically Russian provinces.

I think this is an interesting discussion to have in a broader sense. There's this modern concept that territory shouldn't change hands - at most, you should get further fragmentation, but not transfer of a huge population to another sovereign entity. This is tied into the fiction that territory shouldn't be captured through war that we've tried to live in since WWII. And I think this concept is in many ways naive, and may not even be the worst thing in the world if it were discarded. There are side effects to such a decision, though, especially wrt the role of occupying countries and incentives for war.

Regardless, though, I think that in this specific case, it's not really an issue of whether the Crimea has enough of a Russian backstory that Ukraine should be willing to part with it (and we shouldn't complain too much). The issue is that Russia is unilaterally deciding for Ukraine that Crimea is no longer subject to its government, and backing that up with tens of thousands of troops. Russia's aggression is the really unacceptable part here - I wouldn't be too upset if Crimea chose through a strong democratic majority to break away, but no one is being given a choice here. Russia has a history of doing this sort of thing - there are definitely clear parallels in the Caucasus - and it should not be tolerated IMO.

The wealth there is artificial. They have Soviet-era factories that can't compete in the global markets, and survive only based on substantial subsidies from the Ukrainian government and preferential treatment in Russia.

I think you're only right to a part. Yes, those industrial areas may be uncompetitive, but they do provide a large portion of Ukraine's industrial output. The loss would not be taken lightly. Whether Russia would gain much economically is less certain, however; Putin's motives are almost certainly geopolitical and have little to do with economics.

[RandBlade]

From the Vaults (2007)

I Crush You
05-06-07
By Vladimir Putin

WEAK, flabby western men with no love of country and no respect from women – I will take greatest pleasure in crushing you.

I have watched you many, many years. I have studied ways of British men, American men, even so-called French ‘men’ and you are like little perfumed ladies compared to me and my Russian tough boys.

I see how you like to talk about everything. You make enemy, you want to talk to him. You want to hold his hand and kiss him like he your mother. You want to bake cake for him and put sugar in teacup, like you his wife. This not way to win respect of world. This not way to make men pee in panties at mention of name.

I make enemy, enemy go away. I phone friend, say ‘hello’, make small chat. Two days later – two days! – I get email from friend say enemy gone away. I can be Vladimir, I can be president, I can be on top of Russia and no one tell me to shut my chops.

But I am not monster. No! I hold vote. I win vote. Many, many Russian tough boys vote Vladimir. I look at western men who lose vote. Are you men? Men not lose vote. Men win vote.

I am Vladimir, I have gas. I have many, many gas. You want my gas? Sure, you want my gas. You love my gas. If I say act like perfumed lady and you can have my gas, you will act like perfumed lady. You love my gas. But how much you want my gas? Put dress on. Do it now.

I go Europe. I meet your Mr and Mrs Prime Ministers with big cars and no gas. I say: “How many push-ups? How many sit-ups?” Nothing, that how many. I arm wrestle, but would make you look like hungry clown in front of women.

Go back your country and play with dolls. I am Vladimir. I crush you.

[RandBlade]

Its the two Eastern provinces I've read Russia might want to grab which makes sense from your image. The more Russia grabs (without taking control of Ukraine) the more reason Ukraine will have to turn against Russia both demographically and because they're threatened.

[earthJoker]

Would surely be nice for them to get a bite of the second richest region of the Ukraine

[Loki]

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._great_to.html For those who think all the Crimeans would be ok with Russian rule.

[Loki]

Depends if you want to fight yet another insurgency, only this one requiring you to kill fellow Slavs.

[Hazir]

Is it strange I don't really care all that much? It's fairly obvious one side in this conflict is the paramount power, with the other side being in no position to effectively counteract with nobody really being willing to back them up. Also it's a bit of a fight between two sides neither of which are very sympathetic.

[Loki]

The problem is who's next.

[Hazir]

The problem is who's next.

My bet would be a part of the world where a lot of Russians live, that's still fully integrated in the Russian economy and that has a lot of Russian soldiers within its borders.

[Loki]

My bet would be a part of the world where a lot of Russians live, that's still fully integrated in the Russian economy and that has a lot of Russian soldiers within its borders.

If Europe does nothing, why would Russia be deterred from attacking Estonia or Latvia?

[Wraith]

If Europe does nothing, why would Russia be deterred from attacking Estonia or Latvia?

They're both members of NATO - I don't think Russia's that crazy yet.

[GGT]

I'm not well versed on "Russian" geo-politics, but this seems to be posturing on Energy (oil and natural gas). Whether it's underground, in refineries, pipelines, transported via Black Sea ports or across political land boundaries....or traded using global financial markets.

That sounds too simplistic, but it's hard to ignore the amount of money (and power) involved. Russia is an important energy supplier, right?

[Hazir]

I'm not well versed on "Russian" geo-politics, but this seems to be posturing on Energy (oil and natural gas). Whether it's underground, in refineries, pipelines, transported via Black Sea ports or across political land boundaries....or traded using global financial markets.

That sounds too simplistic, but it's hard to ignore the amount of money (and power) involved. Russia is an important energy supplier, right?

Yes, our mistake (Europe) was to allow ourselves to become dependent on them.

[GGT]

Yes, our mistake (Europe) was to allow ourselves to become dependent on them.

Is that why Merkel (Germany) is reluctant to enact economic sanctions?

I'm not even sure this is about Ukraine, but Crimea. Where are all the forum IR know-it-alls when we need them?

[Hazir]

Is that why Merkel (Germany) is reluctant to enact economic sanctions?

I'm not even sure this is about Ukraine, but Crimea. Where are all the forum IR know-it-alls when we need them?

Yes, this is why Merkel is reluctant. For Cameron the reasons lie in the fact that Russians bring their cash to London, and here in Holland the government is loathe to risk trade with the Russians at the time that our economy is tottering on the verge of recession.

I think you can say that the closer to Russia you come in the EU the more enthousiasm you will find for sanctions against the aggressors.

[Hazir]

On the upside; I think the time we heard European politicians talk about the 'Peace dividend' is over. I guess cutting of Defense budgets is not going to rank very high in the next few years.

[LittleFuzzy]

I think you can say that the closer to Russia you come in the EU the more enthousiasm you will find for sanctions against the aggressors.

I'd hope so. While the Crimea is on the Black Sea and has local autonomy, it's still part of Ukraine and they're on your guys' border. The only way Russia could be aggressive even closer but not over your guys' own territory is to make a move on northern Belarus.

[Loki]

Only one step from us ignoring a security guarantee to us finding a way around our NATO commitments; where there's a will there's a way. Say another "Russian militia" does something in Latvia. We can reasonably claim that it's not an external threat and we're therefore not obligated to intervene militarily. Europe is making it very clear that it has little intention of punishing Russia in a serious way. That's a very shortsighted signal to send. And I'm not convinced the US risks a nuclear war over a European country even if that country is part of NATO. And I'm much easier to convince than Putin.

[BalticSailor]

Only one step from us ignoring a security guarantee to us finding a way around our NATO commitments; where there's a will there's a way. Say another "Russian militia" does something in Latvia. We can reasonably claim that it's not an external threat and we're therefore not obligated to intervene militarily. Europe is making it very clear that it has little intention of punishing Russia in a serious way. That's a very shortsighted signal to send. And I'm not convinced the US risks a nuclear war over a European country even if that country is part of NATO. And I'm much easier to convince than Putin.

Should that happen, it'd probably be the end of NATO - not much point for anyone to be a member of an organization which weasels its way out of serving the function it was created to serve in the first place.

[Loki]

Should that happen, it'd probably be the end of NATO - not much point for anyone to be a member of an organization which weasels its way out of serving the function it was created to serve in the first place.

Considering that NATO over the last decade has been synonymous with the US and a little bit of Britain, with pretty much everyone else a free rider, I'm not sure that would have as much resonance as it had in the past.

[Wraith]

I don't think there's a risk of that happening. We've just increased our NATO air patrols over that region.