Ukraine

[wiggin]

Russia set up the entire conflict. Georgia rose to the provocation, but the whole thing was an act used by Russia to accomplish a preconceived objective. And regardless of whether Georgia was right or wrong in bombing South Ossetia, Russia had no legal right to intervene. It certainly didn't have a legal right to conquer a larger chunk of Abkhazia. Doing nothing in 2008 emboldened Russia today. Russia knows that it has to pay a higher cost for Ukraine than for Georgia, but considering that the latter was virtually 0, why not take the gamble?

I agree that we should have done more than we did with Georgia, but I am much more in favor of a robust response in the case of Ukraine, since they have done absolutely zero to warrant an armed intervention, while Georgia did all sorts of things (including shelling S. Ossetia). Doesn't make what Russia did in 2008 right, but it definitely makes things murkier.

Using all the tools at our disposal might or might not get Russia to back off in this case, but it will send a clear message in future cases. And just what kind of a message are we sending to countries whose security we are guaranteeing and countries that are considering getting nuclear weapons when we so blatantly disregard the Budapest Memorandum? We should stop worrying so much about offending baby Putin's feelings and send a clear message to both Russia and the rest of the world that this kind of behavior is a clear violation of international norms and we're willing to take punitive steps against anyone who engages in this kind of behavior. All I hear right now is a whole bunch of semi-condemnations with no teeth attached. Given Putin's pattern of previous behavior, he might very well take that as a sign that we'd do nothing if he tries to grab the rest of eastern Ukraine.

If Russia is so willing to piss us off, I fail to see why we don't reciprocate. We should take Russia's ongoing aggression in Moldova and Georgia to every international body that's willing to listen. We should do the same against Russia's Armenian ally. Make them squirm. I don't care if no international body actually has the power to rule against Russia; we can embarrass Russia and we can do so over a prolonged period of time.

Fair enough; I just question if most of these measures you're talking about really have the teeth you think they will. Agreed that we should mount a very painful response to this.

Military intervention... in Syria.

Actually a very interesting idea, but I second Loki's concerns about intervening in Syria. If we'd done so years ago, maybe it would have made sense, but now the place is so well and truly fucked that removing Assad from power would do little to improve the situation, and might actually make it worse. The Russians would be pissed, yes, but we also have to consider whether we'd be helping the Syrian people in the slightest, or furthering our interests there. I think an intervention in Syria now is likely to be disastrous.

Expel them from the ESC?

I hope you mean the Eurovision Song Contest, because that is awesome.

If you meant the European Social Charter, boo on you.

[Loki]

The Kremlin’s own pollster released a survey on Monday that showed 73% of Russians reject it. In phrasing its question to 1600 respondents across the country, the state-funded sociologists at WCIOM were clearly trying to get as much support for the intervention as possible: “Should Russia react to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine?” they asked. Only 15% said yes – hardly a national consensus.

https://news.yahoo.com/4-reasons-put...211452971.html

Should be interesting to see if those numbers change now that the propaganda war is in full operation.

[Flixy]

News reports here that Russian soldiers fired warning shots at a group of unarmed Ukrain soldiers who marched to an occupied base to demand it back.

[earthJoker]

I hope you mean the Eurovision Song Contest, because that is awesome.

If you meant the European Social Charter, boo on you.

One of them would really hurt Russia, the other doesn't.

And which one of those has something to do with Waterloo?

[RandBlade]

Steely somewhat has a point. Crimea was for centuries part of Russia and Ukraine is a very schizophrenic nation, one part largely Russian-history and one part largely European Austrian/Polish-history. The irony is that if Russia essentially annexes Crimea, or it becomes independent (which I believe it was already having a referendum about) and the remainder of the Ukraine is democratic then Putin has just pushed the demographics of Ukraine heavily towards Europe.

I'd be very concerned that Putin may decide to do a land grab for the other ethnically Russian provinces.

[RandBlade]

From the Vaults (2007)

I Crush You
05-06-07
By Vladimir Putin

WEAK, flabby western men with no love of country and no respect from women – I will take greatest pleasure in crushing you.

I have watched you many, many years. I have studied ways of British men, American men, even so-called French ‘men’ and you are like little perfumed ladies compared to me and my Russian tough boys.

I see how you like to talk about everything. You make enemy, you want to talk to him. You want to hold his hand and kiss him like he your mother. You want to bake cake for him and put sugar in teacup, like you his wife. This not way to win respect of world. This not way to make men pee in panties at mention of name.

I make enemy, enemy go away. I phone friend, say ‘hello’, make small chat. Two days later – two days! – I get email from friend say enemy gone away. I can be Vladimir, I can be president, I can be on top of Russia and no one tell me to shut my chops.

But I am not monster. No! I hold vote. I win vote. Many, many Russian tough boys vote Vladimir. I look at western men who lose vote. Are you men? Men not lose vote. Men win vote.

I am Vladimir, I have gas. I have many, many gas. You want my gas? Sure, you want my gas. You love my gas. If I say act like perfumed lady and you can have my gas, you will act like perfumed lady. You love my gas. But how much you want my gas? Put dress on. Do it now.

I go Europe. I meet your Mr and Mrs Prime Ministers with big cars and no gas. I say: “How many push-ups? How many sit-ups?” Nothing, that how many. I arm wrestle, but would make you look like hungry clown in front of women.

Go back your country and play with dolls. I am Vladimir. I crush you.

[earthJoker]

I'd be very concerned that Putin may decide to do a land grab for the others ethnically Russian provinces.

Exactly, problem is, the other are much more mixed.

^^ Percentage of Ukrainian speaking population.

It may not worth fighting for the Crimea for the Ukrainian government, but surely it will be worth fighting for Odessa.

[RandBlade]

Its the two Eastern provinces I've read Russia might want to grab which makes sense from your image. The more Russia grabs (without taking control of Ukraine) the more reason Ukraine will have to turn against Russia both demographically and because they're threatened.

[Flixy]

Exactly, problem is, the other are much more mixed.

^^ Percentage of Ukrainian speaking population.

It may not worth fighting for the Crimea for the Ukrainian government, but surely it will be worth fighting for Odessa.

Plus I'm assuming not all Russian speakers actually want to be annexed by Russia - Klitsjko (however you spell it, the boxer / opposition leader) is also a Russian speaker, natively, for example.

[earthJoker]

Would surely be nice for them to get a bite of the second richest region of the Ukraine

[Loki]

Steely somewhat has a point. Crimea was for centuries part of Russia and Ukraine is a very schizophrenic nation, one part largely Russian-history and one part largely European Austrian/Polish-history. The irony is that if Russia essentially annexes Crimea, or it becomes independent (which I believe it was already having a referendum about) and the remainder of the Ukraine is democratic then Putin has just pushed the demographics of Ukraine heavily towards Europe.

I'd be very concerned that Putin may decide to do a land grab for the other ethnically Russian provinces.

It was part of Russia for under 200 years. After Russia conquered it from the Turks committed ethnic cleansing.

Would surely be nice for them to get a bite of the second richest region of the Ukraine

The wealth there is artificial. They have Soviet-era factories that can't compete in the global markets, and survive only based on substantial subsidies from the Ukrainian government and preferential treatment in Russia.

[Loki]

Exactly, problem is, the other are much more mixed.

It's more mixed than that:

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine.../25279292.html

The Russians are generally limited to the large cities. A vast majority of the territory is inhabited by Ukrainian-speakers. And as was pointed out, a large portion of Russian-speakers still consider themselves Ukrainian.

Its the two Eastern provinces I've read Russia might want to grab which makes sense from your image. The more Russia grabs (without taking control of Ukraine) the more reason Ukraine will have to turn against Russia both demographically and because they're threatened.

It's too late at this point. No political party in Ukraine can now take a pro-Russian line without being branded a traitor. Regardless of how this situation ends, Russia has destroyed its Ukrainian policy for at least several decades. From now on, it will have no rely on brute force alone.

[wiggin]

Steely somewhat has a point. Crimea was for centuries part of Russia and Ukraine is a very schizophrenic nation, one part largely Russian-history and one part largely European Austrian/Polish-history. The irony is that if Russia essentially annexes Crimea, or it becomes independent (which I believe it was already having a referendum about) and the remainder of the Ukraine is democratic then Putin has just pushed the demographics of Ukraine heavily towards Europe.

I'd be very concerned that Putin may decide to do a land grab for the other ethnically Russian provinces.

I think this is an interesting discussion to have in a broader sense. There's this modern concept that territory shouldn't change hands - at most, you should get further fragmentation, but not transfer of a huge population to another sovereign entity. This is tied into the fiction that territory shouldn't be captured through war that we've tried to live in since WWII. And I think this concept is in many ways naive, and may not even be the worst thing in the world if it were discarded. There are side effects to such a decision, though, especially wrt the role of occupying countries and incentives for war.

Regardless, though, I think that in this specific case, it's not really an issue of whether the Crimea has enough of a Russian backstory that Ukraine should be willing to part with it (and we shouldn't complain too much). The issue is that Russia is unilaterally deciding for Ukraine that Crimea is no longer subject to its government, and backing that up with tens of thousands of troops. Russia's aggression is the really unacceptable part here - I wouldn't be too upset if Crimea chose through a strong democratic majority to break away, but no one is being given a choice here. Russia has a history of doing this sort of thing - there are definitely clear parallels in the Caucasus - and it should not be tolerated IMO.

The wealth there is artificial. They have Soviet-era factories that can't compete in the global markets, and survive only based on substantial subsidies from the Ukrainian government and preferential treatment in Russia.

I think you're only right to a part. Yes, those industrial areas may be uncompetitive, but they do provide a large portion of Ukraine's industrial output. The loss would not be taken lightly. Whether Russia would gain much economically is less certain, however; Putin's motives are almost certainly geopolitical and have little to do with economics.

[earthJoker]

It's more mixed than that:

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine.../25279292.html

I posted the best map I found in reasonable time. Other maps were much less accurate, just showing majorities and not percentages.

[Loki]

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._great_to.html For those who think all the Crimeans would be ok with Russian rule.

[Flixy]

It's more mixed than that:

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine.../25279292.html

The Russians are generally limited to the large cities. A vast majority of the territory is inhabited by Ukrainian-speakers. And as was pointed out, a large portion of Russian-speakers still consider themselves Ukrainian.

Then again, who needs broad support for joining Russia when you can just declare it by decree?

[Loki]

Depends if you want to fight yet another insurgency, only this one requiring you to kill fellow Slavs.

[Hazir]

Is it strange I don't really care all that much? It's fairly obvious one side in this conflict is the paramount power, with the other side being in no position to effectively counteract with nobody really being willing to back them up. Also it's a bit of a fight between two sides neither of which are very sympathetic.

[Loki]

The problem is who's next.

[GGT]

I'm not well versed on "Russian" geo-politics, but this seems to be posturing on Energy (oil and natural gas). Whether it's underground, in refineries, pipelines, transported via Black Sea ports or across political land boundaries....or traded using global financial markets.

That sounds too simplistic, but it's hard to ignore the amount of money (and power) involved. Russia is an important energy supplier, right?

[Hazir]

The problem is who's next.

My bet would be a part of the world where a lot of Russians live, that's still fully integrated in the Russian economy and that has a lot of Russian soldiers within its borders.

[Hazir]

I'm not well versed on "Russian" geo-politics, but this seems to be posturing on Energy (oil and natural gas). Whether it's underground, in refineries, pipelines, transported via Black Sea ports or across political land boundaries....or traded using global financial markets.

That sounds too simplistic, but it's hard to ignore the amount of money (and power) involved. Russia is an important energy supplier, right?

Yes, our mistake (Europe) was to allow ourselves to become dependent on them.

[Loki]

My bet would be a part of the world where a lot of Russians live, that's still fully integrated in the Russian economy and that has a lot of Russian soldiers within its borders.

If Europe does nothing, why would Russia be deterred from attacking Estonia or Latvia?

[Wraith]

If Europe does nothing, why would Russia be deterred from attacking Estonia or Latvia?

They're both members of NATO - I don't think Russia's that crazy yet.

[Loki]

Only one step from us ignoring a security guarantee to us finding a way around our NATO commitments; where there's a will there's a way. Say another "Russian militia" does something in Latvia. We can reasonably claim that it's not an external threat and we're therefore not obligated to intervene militarily. Europe is making it very clear that it has little intention of punishing Russia in a serious way. That's a very shortsighted signal to send. And I'm not convinced the US risks a nuclear war over a European country even if that country is part of NATO. And I'm much easier to convince than Putin.

[Wraith]

I don't think there's a risk of that happening. We've just increased our NATO air patrols over that region.

[Loki]

It's easy to do things that have no cost.

[GGT]

Yes, our mistake (Europe) was to allow ourselves to become dependent on them.

Is that why Merkel (Germany) is reluctant to enact economic sanctions?

I'm not even sure this is about Ukraine, but Crimea. Where are all the forum IR know-it-alls when we need them?

[RandBlade]

Russia considered our invasion of Iraq to be illegal and opposed it, how did they punish us? Realistically larger nations can get away with more. We'd never fight the USSR and we're not about to fight Russia or start a second Cold War either.

[GGT]

Russia considered our invasion of Iraq to be illegal and opposed it, how did they punish us? Realistically larger nations can get away with more. We'd never fight the USSR and we're not about to fight Russia or start a second Cold War either.

Not sure I understand your point. The US and its European allies have invaded and occupied sovereign nations since WWII....even falsifying facts to justify the interventions, and get approval from congress and international bodies...from Korea to Viet Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan, and "missions" in between.

Isn't a new kind of financial Cold War a possibility, using fossil fuels instead of nuclear weapons?