Ukraine

[Hazir]

You are honestly suggesting to treat Russia better? On which basis?

I must have missed the part where Switzerland has the capability to destroy all life on this planet a couple times over. I say; try occupying Liechtenstein and see what happens in retaliation.

[LittleFuzzy]

You are honestly suggesting to treat Russia better? On which basis?

Hazir is very big in calling for the EU to satisfy his inner Thucydides.

It's a bit weird to me to use the biggest turn of the century example of liberal institutionalism as his personal projection of the realist school but Hazir seems to appreciate the frisson of cognitive dissonance.

[Hazir]

Hazir is very big in calling for the EU to satisfy his inner Thucydides.

It's a bit weird to me to use the biggest turn of the century example of liberal institutionalism as his personal projection of the realist school but Hazir seems to appreciate the frisson of cognitive dissonance.

You didn't consider that I am mostly a cynic?

Also 'liberal institutionalism'? What about simply seeing that decimating yourself twice in a century isn't the best way of dealing with your affairs?

The main reason why we have to deal with this Crimean crisis at all is that Putin knows Europe is so divided that he can pick us off one by one. On the other side of the same equation whe have a shithole like Switzerland being the epitome of stupid and self defeating selfishness. It's really so ironic this all, the best friends of our worst enemies we will always find within our own borders here in Europe.

[Hazir]

Oh, and I am not representing anything or anybody. I say what I think, the reason why I in this forum almost without fail appear to be some sort of euro-fanatic is that without fail I come accross people with half assed ideas about European integration. Not one time in all the many years in this forum I have come accross anybody who actually said something sensible about the EU. There is a whole lot to be improved about the EU, but none of the improvements include the fucking kleinstaatlerei that made this continent to the place where 2 world wars originated. I would gladly see the scourge of nationalism be burned from this planet the only reason why I stop = roughly at the borders of Europe = is that I don't want to give up things like democracy and the rule of law in exchange for safety.

[earthJoker]

I must have missed the part where Switzerland has the capability to destroy all life on this planet a couple times over. I say; try occupying Liechtenstein and see what happens in retaliation.

Russia would never ever use its nuclear arsenal over sanctions and you know that very well. What a lame excuse and what a concession of weakness if you chose your actions based on fear.

Anything that Russia can do against the EU will hurt Russia as much, the same can be said about Switzerland. We all know what happened when a single power line through Switzerland failed, just imagine what would happen if we decided to go all in.
The economic connection is in the 21st century the bigger grantee for peace than nukes, and it is a fact that any mid-sized European country could turn the whole continent into a huge recession if it decided to go war.

[Hazir]

Russia would never ever use its nuclear arsenal over sanctions and you know that very well. What a lame excuse and what a concession of weakness if you chose your actions based on fear.

Anything that Russia can do against the EU will hurt Russia as much, the same can be said about Switzerland. We all know what happened when a single power line through Switzerland failed, just imagine what would happen if we decided to go all in.
The economic connection is in the 21st century the bigger grantee for peace than nukes, and it is a fact that any mid-sized European country could turn the whole continent into a huge recession if it decided to go war.

Oh go fuck yourself; people like you are telling there won't be war in Europe again as there is a war happening in Europe right now. Waged by a dictator who doesn't give a shit about your economic entanglement or precious sovereignty.

Nothing the EU can do will hurt Russia as much as it is dealing out hurt; we can huff and puff and they take the land. And your precious Switzerland is the doormat of even the EU.

[earthJoker]

Oh go fuck yourself;

Ah you run out of arguments.

Come back when you got something to tell to us.

[Hazir]

Ah you run out of arguments.

Come back when you got something to tell to us.

I think there is one fucking big argument against your blindness; a real war in Europe. Waged by a man who obviously doesn't give a fuck about your smug comments about interconnectedness.

[GGT]

So....Putin would cut off oil/gas to Ukraine's people (not just Europe) to force financiers/banks and energy companies to keep "assets" in Russia? Isn't that the kind of economic and financial chaos that could escalate into civil war -- and drag old soviet nations into the fray? Is Putin really that crazy?

[earthJoker]

I think there is one fucking big argument against your blindness; a real war in Europe. Waged by a man who obviously doesn't give a fuck about your smug comments about interconnectedness.

A real war? So far there is only a occupation going on.

Actually the current situation even proves my point, the economic interconnection is the very reason this hasn't escalated into war.

Then again, what are the chances of a nuclear war between the EU (France and UK that is) and Russia?

So....Putin would cut off oil/gas to Ukraine's people (not just Europe) to force financiers/banks and energy companies to keep "assets" in Russia? Isn't that the kind of economic and financial chaos that could escalate into civil war -- and drag old soviet nations into the fray? Is Putin really that crazy?

He can only cut of gas to the EU and Ukraine. There is no way he can cut if of from only one or the other party, the Ukraine has the control over the pipes.

In recent years, the highest rate of increased fiscal revenues associated with the production and export of mineral resources (tax on mineral extraction, oil export duties, etc.). In particular, the 2008 federal budget of Russia was formed on 50% oil and gas revenues (in 2006 the share of oil and gas revenues accounted for more than half in 2003 - a quarter of the total mass of income).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_budget_of_Russia

In other words, Russia could simply just declaring bankruptcy if they want to stop oil and gas exports.

[LittleFuzzy]

Oh, and I am not representing anything or anybody. I say what I think, the reason why I in this forum almost without fail appear to be some sort of euro-fanatic is that without fail I come accross people with half assed ideas about European integration. Not one time in all the many years in this forum I have come accross anybody who actually said something sensible about the EU. There is a whole lot to be improved about the EU, but none of the improvements include the fucking kleinstaatlerei that made this continent to the place where 2 world wars originated. I would gladly see the scourge of nationalism be burned from this planet the only reason why I stop = roughly at the borders of Europe = is that I don't want to give up things like democracy and the rule of law in exchange for safety.

How's that saying go? "If one person is a jerk to you, it's because they're a jerk. If everyone is a jerk to you, it's because you're a jerk".

[LittleFuzzy]

Russia would never ever use its nuclear arsenal over sanctions and you know that very well. What a lame excuse and what a concession of weakness if you chose your actions based on fear.

Anything that Russia can do against the EU will hurt Russia as much, the same can be said about Switzerland. We all know what happened when a single power line through Switzerland failed, just imagine what would happen if we decided to go all in.
The economic connection is in the 21st century the bigger grantee for peace than nukes, and it is a fact that any mid-sized European country could turn the whole continent into a huge recession if it decided to go war.

There's a difference. Putin and his key figures are apparently willing to accept, even court, autarky to secure greater freedom of action geopolitically. They've maneuvered so the pain from economic dislocation will fall mainly on those they've decided are/should be political enemies or rivals locally. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong but they're convinced enough to go ahead. Economic interdependence is only a real deterrent if the decision-makers are concerned about that pain which you guys are and Putin is not. Referencing the nuclear arsenal is ridiculous hyperbole, the arsenals may be reduced but the Cold War analytics haven't that much, but conflict is certainly still possible in Europe, at least on the borders. And short of conflict, your policy-makers are far more vulnerable to external economic pressure than Putin is.

[Hazir]

The nucleair arsenal probably is anything but hyperbolic in the calculations of Putin. I merely mentioned it in answer to the idiotic notion that Switzerland is in the same league as Russia.

[Hazir]

How's that saying go? "If one person is a jerk to you, it's because they're a jerk. If everyone is a jerk to you, it's because you're a jerk".

Another starts 'When in Rome .... '.

[earthJoker]

There's a difference. Putin and his key figures are apparently willing to accept, even court, autarky to secure greater freedom of action geopolitically. They've maneuvered so the pain from economic dislocation will fall mainly on those they've decided are/should be political enemies or rivals locally. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong but they're convinced enough to go ahead. Economic interdependence is only a real deterrent if the decision-makers are concerned about that pain which you guys are and Putin is not. Referencing the nuclear arsenal is ridiculous hyperbole, the arsenals may be reduced but the Cold War analytics haven't that much, but conflict is certainly still possible in Europe, at least on the borders. And short of conflict, your policy-makers are far more vulnerable to external economic pressure than Putin is.

The only reason, that it is more likely that Putin is doing something like this, is because he might let people suffer for the sake getting to his goal. And of course the Russian people are used to suffering.

The main problem for Russia ATM are that the European reserves are currently much higher than usual. Around 50% while there are usually lower than 30% after winter. If I go outside, flowers are blooming and the birds start to sing. Putin would have to cut it down over a long time. Markets would have kill him until reserves in the decision making countries (AKA Germany) would reached an alarming level.

How's that saying go? "If one person is a jerk to you, it's because they're a jerk. If everyone is a jerk to you, it's because you're a jerk".

That's funny, I thought about just the same saying.

The nucleair arsenal probably is anything but hyperbolic in the calculations of Putin.

That's nonsense. Putin would never use nuclear weapons against any EU or NATO member unless they would attack Russia and he never would need to use them against the Ukraine, they are way to easy to beat conventionally.

I merely mentioned it in answer to the idiotic notion that Switzerland is in the same league as Russia.

Who said that? I never mentioned the word "league" at all. All I pointed out, is your inconsistence in our opinion about the EU decision making process.
I said already in the other thread, that any EU decision could be blocked by a single country, and you disagreed. And in this thread you suddenly changed your opinion.

Or is the legal decision marketing process changing based on the country it makes decision for? That sound like a Banana republic for me.

[GGT]

He can only cut of gas to the EU and Ukraine. There is no way he can cut if of from only one or the other party, the Ukraine has the control over the pipes.

But Ukraine doesn't really control "the pipes" if Russia controls the trade policy, the banks/financiers/investors, etc.

In other words, Russia could simply just declaring bankruptcy if they want to stop oil and gas exports.

They don't want to STOP oil/gas exports -- that would make them a vulnerable energy supplier. They just want to CONTROL anyone dependent on their oil/gas imports, which means the EU as importers....and anyone in between, like Crimea and Ukraine, as middle-men.

*Gosh, that sounds eerily close to US 'policies'. *

[Hazir]

I really wonder how people got so stupid about nuclear arms; because they think they won't be used they think they can take them out of the equation in raw power games going on in this world. Putin doesn't have to use nuclear bombs to let others know that he has them. He doesn't even have to mention them.
Just like Pyongyang doesn't have to bomb Seoel with nuclear bombs to get a very much more reverent treatment than before they were considered capable of making them and delivering them.

[Loki]

I'm going to agree with joker here; any threat, whether implicit or explicit, to use nukes in retaliation for sanctions is simply not credible. Russia knows there will be nuclear retaliation. Other countries know that Russia knows this. If anything, the existence of nuclear weapons have raised the provocation threshold, making it possible to antagonize nuclear powers far more than before without risking an all-out war.

[GGT]

Conversely, when did people "get stupid" about nuclear energy, nuclear enrichment, nuclear weapons....and international policies?

[GGT]

Russia knows there will be nuclear retaliation. Other countries know that Russia knows this. If anything, the existence of nuclear weapons have raised the provocation threshold, making it possible to antagonize nuclear powers far more than before without risking an all-out war.

What?

[Hazir]

I'm going to agree with joker here; any threat, whether implicit or explicit, to use nukes in retaliation for sanctions is simply not credible. Russia knows there will be nuclear retaliation. Other countries know that Russia knows this. If anything, the existence of nuclear weapons have raised the provocation threshold, making it possible to antagonize nuclear powers far more than before without risking an all-out war.

Really, so pray tell why we take Russia serious at all?

[Loki]

Mostly oil and gas. Ability to stoke tensions all around its borders. A military that's not entirely useless. A seat at the UN SC. Carry-over prestige from the Cold War. The nukes are relevant mainly when it comes to missile defense issues and threats to Russia's territorial integrity.

[LittleFuzzy]

I really wonder how people got so stupid about nuclear arms; because they think they won't be used they think they can take them out of the equation in raw power games going on in this world. Putin doesn't have to use nuclear bombs to let others know that he has them. He doesn't even have to mention them.
Just like Pyongyang doesn't have to bomb Seoel with nuclear bombs to get a very much more reverent treatment than before they were considered capable of making them and delivering them.

If we were talking about the risk of actual military conflict, I'd agree with you. We're not. We're talking about sanctions and economic pressure and I don't care how small Putin's circle of advisors is, no one is going to mention or think about a nuclear response to sanctions

But Ukraine doesn't really control "the pipes" if Russia controls the trade policy, the banks/financiers/investors, etc.

. . .

GGT, he's talking about the physical pipelines which the material travels through to reach Europe. It's not mounted on freight trucks or pressurized train containers. That may be how some of it gets distributed in the last legs but getting from Russia to Europe, it travels via a pipeline and those pipes run through the Ukraine. It's not possible to cut off the supply to the Ukraine without also cutting it off to Europe.

[Loki]

I'd go further than that. The evidence suggests that having nukes actually increases the chance that a country gets challenged militarily, albeit short of full-out war.

For a simple summary: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stabili...bility_paradox

[LittleFuzzy]

I'm familiar with it.

[earthJoker]

GGT, he's talking about the physical pipelines which the material travels through to reach Europe. It's not mounted on freight trucks or pressurized train containers. That may be how some of it gets distributed in the last legs but getting from Russia to Europe, it travels via a pipeline and those pipes run through the Ukraine. It's not possible to cut off the supply to the Ukraine without also cutting it off to Europe.

Exactly. And we are not talking about a hypothetical situation here. This has happened before: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%...e_gas_disputes

I'd go further than that. The evidence suggests that having nukes actually increases the chance that a country gets challenged militarily, albeit short of full-out war.

For a simple summary: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stabili...bility_paradox

Interesting, that really sums up my thoughts nicely.
Russia can simply occupy the crimea because it doesn't have to fear that the conflict will escalate into a war. And this is not a war, there hasn't been a single battle between armed forces yet.

[Loki]

I'm familiar with it.

The second part of that post was aimed at GGT.

[Hazir]

The second part of that post was aimed at GGT.

It's all nice and well that you don't want to call the occupation of a part of ones' neighbours territory under threath of arms an act of war, but it's even funnier if you bring up a theory that presumes that Putin isn't the one rocking the boat

[earthJoker]

Yeah, about as funny as the fact that the whole media landscape and everyone that matters is calling it the Crimea crisis and not the Crimea war.

[Loki]

It's all nice and well that you don't want to call the occupation of a part of ones' neighbours territory under threath of arms an act of war, but it's even funnier if you bring up a theory that presumes that Putin isn't the one rocking the boat

It's not threatening Russia's territorial integrity, is it? That's the only condition under which Russia would consider using nukes.