So I'm sure you've all been following the drama in Kiev in recent months; I'm sure we all have a roughly similar analysis re: Russia's involvement. But I thought it might be interesting to discuss the EU and US role in this, and how we might best move forward to defusing a rapidly escalating situation.

I just listened to the leaked phone call between the US ambassador to Ukraine, Pyatt, and an Assistant Sec'y of State, Nuland. It appears to have been posted by Russian intelligence (?); certainly they're pushing it as some sort of propaganda coup. The actual content of the call, however, is less than embarrassing - similar to the leaked State Department cables a while back, the conversation seems to be fairly intelligent and reasonable, with little of controversy. Nuland and Pyatt discuss the opposition 'leadership' (if there really is any leadership to the protests) and strategize on how to get them to work together, potentially with an eye to forming a new government if and when the current one falls. Fairly staid stuff, though Russian sources are taking it to mean that there's a massive American conspiracy behind the opposition protests to Yanukovych's rule.

The one interesting bit seems to be where they imply that they're going to try to get the UN involved and sidestep the EU in dealing with the situation. Memorably, Nuland said, "Fuck the EU" in this context (without much rancor). I think this move - and the mood in the State Department - is likely a result of the fairly tepid response of the EU to rapidly escalating violence with the protests. The US has responded with fairly strong rhetoric and sanctions against individuals in the regime; the EU has conspicuously refrained from doing so. Is this because the EU still harbors hope of bringing Ukraine into an association agreement, even after they were brusquely turned down in favor of Russian aid? Perhaps a good cop, bad cop routine? Certainly the context of the conversation suggests the US is frustrated with EU inaction on the issue, and is happy to bypass them and go straight to the UN and the Ukrainian opposition.

What do you think should be the US' next move? What about the EU? Is there a relatively 'good' ending possible here without significant bloodshed or repression?