Don't forget meeting needs and wants. People with good jobs don't (feel like they) need to steal - crime can be about believing you don't have any good alternatives.
Your statement is too narrow. You only understand the stick, not the carrot, and in a very simplistic way at that.In any event my original statement stands - people either don't do crime due to perceived consequences or due to their moral compass. Since we know not everyone's moral compass is that great it requires us to have law enforcement in order to increase the consequences pushing some people into the "won't do crime due to fear of consequences" decision making bracket.
You don't need to qualify it with 'long run.' Reducing crime with opportunity not only lowers law enforcement and incarceration expense but also increases the tax base through employment. It's HUGELY superior to Lewk's draconian police state utopia.