Steely I hope you're watching this special Question Time leaders edition. Quite an amazing format, it's working really well but I think Cameron played it well but Miliband is drowning.
I can't believe he just said that Labour didn't overspend.
Steely I hope you're watching this special Question Time leaders edition. Quite an amazing format, it's working really well but I think Cameron played it well but Miliband is drowning.
I can't believe he just said that Labour didn't overspend.
Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
No, I can't abide question time. Also, Thursday night is track night so I didn't get back till gone 9. I did catch the end of Nick Clegg's section, he seemed to be doing ok but, you know, whatever.
I did enjoy the deep cynicism of the Lib Dem's latest ploy; they just flat out leaked a random policy document from three years ago that most people in government probably don't even remember and said "look, Tories secret plan to cut child benefit by eleventy billion pounds!!1111". You just don't expect it from those guys, it's like hearing your maiden aunt call someone a festering cunt.
Maybe their years in power, and getting mauled for doing basically the right thing in 2010, has made them a little more hard nosed.
Yeah, because the Lib Dems had enough seats to make a government with either the Tories or Labour, which was obviously a far better alternative. They won't this time around - assuming my take on the polls is correct and both the main parties will end up with approx 270 seats apiece and the Lib Dems will have like a third of the seats they had in 2010. Labour will be able to do it with the SNP, just about, but since both sides have ruled out a full coalition one expects that to be nothing more than a confidence and supply deal. So in order to get shit done without the SNP holding them hostage they'll want to work with the other smaller parties, which means Lib Dems and PC.A rainbow coalition of Labour, SNP, LD and PC will be unstable. In 2010 that rainbow had 324 seats between them, an effective majority of 3 (323 provides an effective majority as there are 647 seats taken in Parliament). It was rightly rejected last time as being implausible.
Let's face it, unless someone manages a majority, we're looking at unstable as a given.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Funny video. This wasn't a traditional QT though, it was a back and forth between the audience and the party leaders and I'd highly recommend (if you're interested) watching Cameron and Miliband's. They both got quite a grilling, it was one of the best political debates I've seen in years I think. Clegg's was rather boring by comparison, even the audience seemed bored and disengaged with him after the main event.
I'm partisan but think the LD's have made themselves look silly over that, leaking a three year old proposal that never saw the light of day a week before the election. It was unsurprisingly the first question asked to Cameron tonight and he unequivocally said those weren't Conservative proposals. That it was a proposal he'd received and turned down three years ago and had no interest in doing it. Which I think is a shame as personally the proposals sound rather reasonable but oh well.
If its 270 apiece then Ed Miliband is PM. I don't think that's remotely certain though. 270 would be a bad night for the Tories.
The latest result from each pollster:-
Ashcroft Con +6%,
Ipsos Mori Con +5%,
Survation Con +3%,
BMG Con +3%,
ICM Con +3%,
TNS Con +1%,
Opinium Con +1%
ComRes Tie
Populus Tie
Yougov Lab 1%
Panelbase Lab 2%.
Average Conservative lead 1.7%. Range Con+6 to Lab +2 (this range is outside of margin of error so someone is wrong).
Ashcroft, Survation, BMG and Panelbase are all new starters with no track record, while TNS were new last time and called it completely wrong (outside margin of error) and YouGov have changed their methodology which seems to have caused a total lack of variation in their polls. So going off the established pollsters (Ipsos-Mori, ICM, Opinium, ComRes and Populus):
Con +1.8. Range +5 to Tie (all within margin of error).
Note I still think ICM is the gold standard (and it happens to be one of the closest to the average) despite Ipsos being more favourable to "my team" - and I'm discounting Ashcroft entirely. Pretty similar average excluding the unreliable pollsters, but these for the record are the ones whose final polls I'd be checking closely.
Assuming we take Milliband at his word about not working with the SNP in any way, shape or form (big assumption) I don't now think anyone is actually going to be in a position to govern effectively this time next week. I think we'll see another election within a year or two.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
There is precedence for a similar situation in Spain. Rather than let the Basque separatists hold the balance of power and decide who controls the government, the runner up party abstains and accepts they lost. Very divisive issues then need to have the acceptance of the opposition as well or it could be defeated with the Basques.
However I don't think Miliband can be taken at his word. He'll work with the SNP.
EDIT:
Interestingly the midpoints for seats for bookies Sporting Index points to an incredibly hung Parliament.
Left: Lab 263 + SNP 48 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 + Respect** 1 = 319
Right: Tory 292 + LD* 23 + DUP ** 9 + UKIP 3 + Lady Hermon (Northern Ireland independent) 1 = 328
* LD's have said they'll work with whoever has most seats and will not work with the SNP. If Tories are nearly 30 ahead that puts them well clear on seats and votes.
** DUP and Respect aren't on the bookies site but this is to be expected. DUP are anti-austerity and not on a classic left/right divide but are more likely to work with the Tories and would NEVER work with the SNP.
Note seat tally reaches 647 which is off by 2 due to rounding. Should be 645 as Sinn Fein win but don't take 5 seats.
I kind of think 290 is the 'magic number' which decides the PM. If Cameron is 290 plus I don't see a working Labour government. Below 290 he's out.
Last edited by RandBlade; 05-01-2015 at 01:15 PM.
Haven't the Lib Dems ruled out working with UKIP also? I honestly can't keep up.
I agree about 290 - in an earlier post, I wrote that Cameron needed 290+ but I deleted that bit.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
I think there's an outside chance that at least some UKIP voters will come to their senses and strategically vote Tory in order to prevent a Labour government.
Hope is the denial of reality
Steely the LDs have ruled our being in coalition with the UKIP. But nobody is going to go into coalition with UKIP. Three votes is only enough for confidence and supply arrangements not coalition.
If that outcome came to pass I'd expect a continuation of the coalition with DUP support in tight votes. So long as Clegg keeps his own seat, if Clegg loses then I think a coalition is a lot less likely. Convoluted either way.
Loki I agree. When the Tories started talking about the SNP I thought it was a weird strategy but it seems it could be working. UKIP really seem to be drowning too which is great. I despise UKIP and what they stand for.
I heard something on the news today about the Duchess of Cambridge being in Labour? If true, it's a pretty big boost for Milliband. I am in two minds. I don't particularly want to see another Tory government, but I don't think the royals should be involving themselves in politics like this.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
LOL. BBC News excelled themselves apparently by reporting that the Duchess of Cambridge was believed to have been present at the birth. Seriously.
Interestingly Peter Kellner (boss of YouGov, married to Labour's Baroness Ashton who was the UK's EU Commissioner) has made his own personal predictions which don't seem to fit into YouGov's own polling. It would again be a well hung Parliament.
Con 283
Lab 261
SNP 50
LD 32
Others 21
Green 1
That makes Tory+LD = 315 and Lab+SNP = 311. Talk about unstable!
It seems optimistic for the Tories. The last half a dozen polls show a Labour advantage. I'm not sure how it translates into seats, but it seems unlikely that the Tories would win by 20+. Also, I still don't get why Britain doesn't have proper constituency-level polling. Don't you have political scientists or pollsters?
Hope is the denial of reality
Jobs fucked. Another election before 2017.
32 seats seems optimistic for the LDs, too.It seems optimistic for the Tories. The last half a dozen polls show a Labour advantage. I'm not sure how it translates into seats, but it seems unlikely that the Tories would win by 20+. Also, I still don't get why Britain doesn't have proper constituency-level polling. Don't you have political scientists or pollsters?
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
I thought that as well. Not sure who the Lib Dems would steal their votes from.
Hope is the denial of reality
We don't have PR which is for the first time playing massively to the Lib Dems advantage. I suspect if we had German-style PR then the Lib Dems would poll under 5% and as a result get no seats, like the FDP last time in Germany.
However we don't and the Lib Dems are infamous for their "cockroach-like" ability to dig in and hold seats once won. Other than 1 or 2 notable exceptions, the Lib Dems are not looking for gains but are digging in to save what they've got. With all their favourite tools like dodgy barcharts etc on leaflets appealing for Labour votes where there is a Tory challenger and vice-versa. Its quite possible the Lib Dems could hold the only non-SNP seat in Scotland (Orkney and Shetlands).
Steely do you mind if I ask if you're happy to share who you're supporting? And if you plan on voting for them or tactically for someone else in your constituency? IIRC you identified closest to the Lib Dems five years ago and were broadly happy with the Coalition agreement. Not sure how happy you've been with the Coalition over the last five years and if you still identify with the LDs or not?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...n-predictions/ The most likely government is still a Labour/Lib Dem coalition with some sort of SNP support.
Hope is the denial of reality
Nate Silver's projections for 2010 were atrociously inaccurate: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...uniform-swing/
This time he's gotten closer to the mainstream with his projections. To answer your question, while opinion polls have never been perfect, the UNS seat projectors have done reasonably well in getting the right seat numbers for any swing. The key then has been trying to improve surveying to get the right figures, rather than surveying 650 seats separately. This election there is no standard swing though and that's made things far more complicated.
Lord Ashcroft has completed hundreds of surveys of individual constituencies, but his methodology is completely untested. If it is shown to be accurate this year then expect it to be repeated more in the future, if not then who knows.
These predictions are being made by a bunch of UK political scientists, not Nate Silver.
If the current trend of weak mainstream parties continues, the old methodology will become less and less reliable. I'm just surprised that people living in the constituencies don't want to see how their own representative is doing. Otherwise, how are they meant to vote strategically?
Hope is the denial of reality
Uniform swing has been very good at predicting from one election to the next typically, so they normally go based off the last election. Polling is expensive, who do you expect to pay for constituency polls?
Remember that there are 650 seats in the UK, compared to I believe 435 in your House of Representatives, while we have a much smaller population. So on a per capita basis that's equivalent to 3234 Representatives being elected.
The Lib Dems are the experts of encouraging strategic voting, especially through dodgy barcharts.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/...phs#.iwPDgNNy1
BBC, Sky, a bunch of the newspapers? Same kind of actors who do it here.
But yes, those are amusing charts.
Last edited by Loki; 05-03-2015 at 08:24 PM.
Hope is the denial of reality
The BBC just poll the pollsters (seriously) its the national newspapers who typically pay for the polls. And they're interested in what sells newspapers, which is the national coverage. Not what a single constituency is doing. How many extra papers would a national newspaper sell by publishing a poll that doesn't apply to 99.85% of its customers.
We've only just started getting Scottish polls by the Scottish newspapers, I wouldn't hold my breath on constituency polls being a big seller any time soon.
Its interesting in the final few days to see the party leaders involved in almost a tango of a dance on what will happen afterwards. Ed Miliband has potentially done a serious own goal by stating that he wouldn't make a deal with the SNP, as it seems likely that Labour are coming second. If they get most seats then expect Cameron to resign potentially quickly, but if the Tories have most seats then its being reported that Cameron will cling on until Labour make a deal to overtake them in Parliament, forcing a vote if necessary.
As the Lib Dems found out last time regarding tuition fees, reneging on a promise to the public within days of the election can be very costly so Labour could go into a new Parliament very weak and automatically less popular rather than having a honeymoon period as they've been shown as liars from the start.
Clegg and Cameron both seem to be coming out quite in favour of a Coalition 2.0 - with both leaders setting "red lines" on negotiations that the other can live with. Cameron making an EU vote a red line for the Tories, Clegg opposing an EU vote (despite it being his idea last time!) but saying that its not a red line. In other words he'll agree to it as soon as the dust settles if the numbers work.
On May 8 I think two results are becoming key to who forms the next government
1: Do the Tories have more seats than Labour? If no, Labour are the government.
2: Does Clegg keep his own seat in Sheffield Hallam? Labour are throwing everything they've got at decapitating Clegg and if he falls, I think the LD's will retreat to the backbenches.
Still Liberal Democrat. My consistency is Workington, where Labour are rocking a majority of over 10%, so there's really little point voting tactically. I might as well just vote for whoever I like the most. My preferred outcome is a Labour-LD coalition, but at the moment Dolorous Ed has ruled out working with anyone at all in government, including the rest of the Labour Party, or any other living human being so I guess we'll see.
For the Liberal Democrats, appearing in a Lab-Lib coalition is good for their long term survival. All their core voters (apart from me, apparently) are butt-hurt they violated their tribal affiliation and teamed up with those dastardly Tories to do mean things to poor people, but five years in bed with Labour, whose name *isn't* a snarl word amongst left wing circles, should rehabilitate them in time for 2020. Plus, 10 years in coalition government should give them plenty of time to hone their "take credit for the popular policies, blame the other party for the fuck ups" skills, surely an important skill in this new era of British politics. I suspect that's what's behind the recent Lib-Lab child benefit tag-team maneuver.
If I were in a Lab-Tory contested seat I might vote tactically and throw my lot in with Labour - I don't normally revile the Tories to the extent of voting tactically to keep them out but their promise of a referendum is not a good thing.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Theory: Ed Milliband does not want to be Prime Minister.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
It's not unreasonable. Let the other side create a messed up coalition, wait for it to collapse, get a majority of the seats.
Hope is the denial of reality
You mean the referendum promise that was in your own manifesto last time?
A referendum is inevitable to happen in this country. Better for it to happen under the leadership of people who want to stay in, than under people who want to leave. If Cameron runs the referendum we'd win it by 2:1 and shut the matter down hopefully. If it happened Salmond style under an Out leader then I'd expect either we lose and get a very narrow Out, or the In is like in Scotland far too tight a margin to keep anyone happy. It continues to drag on and a second referendum seems inevitable.
He stabbed his brother over the party leadership. He'll stab anyone and betray anyone to become PM.
Just saw that you still have a law on the books that bans Jewish politicians from advising the monarch on any appointments relating to the Church of England or Scotland. That could be amusing if Labour wins.
Hope is the denial of reality
I wasn't running last time.
And which 'out' leader is this? All the parties are pro-EU bar UKIP, who are going to get enough seats to count on a single hand.A referendum is inevitable to happen in this country. Better for it to happen under the leadership of people who want to stay in, than under people who want to leave. If Cameron runs the referendum we'd win it by 2:1 and shut the matter down hopefully. If it happened Salmond style under an Out leader then I'd expect either we lose and get a very narrow Out, or the In is like in Scotland far too tight a margin to keep anyone happy. It continues to drag on and a second referendum seems inevitable.
Meanwhile, Cameron's position is that he'll try and renegotiate the treaty with other EU members, andifwhen he fucks that up completely he'll support a no vote. There are many in the Tory rank and file who consider Britain's position within the EU to be the most important issue facing the country, because they're idiots, and they'll continue to badger him to into increasingly xenophobic positions on the EU. Will an EU referendum result in the UK leaving? Probably not. Will not having an EU referendum result in the UK leaving? Definitely not. So I prefer no referendum.
And I don't believe an EU referendum is inevitable, either. The desire this thing is coming straight from right-wing circles of the political elite. If they'd get over their ridiculous obsession, there'd be no push from the general public to have one, the EU has absolutely no visible effect on people's day to day lives. Insofar as it features in their consciousness at all, it's just from whatever piece of outrage culture nonsense is coming out of the right-wing press.
He only thought he wanted it when he didn't think he'd get it, now it's within his grasp it terrifies him so he's indulging in some self-sabotage.He stabbed his brother over the party leadership. He'll stab anyone and betray anyone to become PM.
I don't think that's it at all, but it's amusing to contemplate. Come on, it fits his character.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
I think #EdStone has to live in infamy as one of the most naff and ill thought out stunts ever. Who seriously thought getting an 8 foot tombstone with vague meaningless drivel on it would be popular and not ridiculed?
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