Final polls are drifting in and seem to be converging on a slight Tory lead. Which wouldn't be enough. Need the major phone pollsters results still though - Ipsos won't be released until the morning.
EDIT: Seems my source was wrong, one Ashcroft and Populus still to come so these aren't the final figures.
Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
Well I said all along my gold standard was ICM and I'm shocked by their final poll: Both parties tied on 35%.
Very disappointing. It had been showing a healthy Tory lead, but now down to hoping the pollsters are wrong.
You only believe pollsters when they tell you what you want to hear?
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
OK, so who wants to make some predictions?
- Number of Seats for each party
- Share of votes for each party
- Which parties will attempt to form governments? in which order?
- Which party leaders will resign, if any?
- First party to violate pre-election pledge not to form coalition with another party
- First party to violate pre-election 'red line'
- Number of days/weeks to form actual working government
- First media-outlet to used 'Game of Thrones' themed infographic to describe post-election negotiations
Prizes are available for the poster to gets closest to the actual results before the polls close tomorrow*.
* prizes are not available.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Surprised you've not said what parties will form the government. Surely that's an important prediction?
Listing seats and votes together:
Con 35% 285 seats
Lab 32% 258 seats
LD 9% 25 seats
SNP 48% (of Scotland) 55 seats
UKIP 11% 3 seats
Greens 4% 1 seat
Plaid Cymru <1% 3 seats
Speaker 1 seat
Respect 1 seat
Northern Ireland
DUP 9
SDLP 3
Sinn Fein 5 (not taken)
Independent (Lady Sylvia Hermon) 1
Parties attempting to form government: Hard to answer this, they'll all negotiate. Tories and Labour will both speak to LD.
Government formed: Lab+LD with SNP/PC support.
Party leader resignations: Cameron, Clegg and Farage. Plus Bennett next year
No coalition violation: Labour and Lib Dems making a deal with the SNP
Red line: Labour won't cut deficit as pledged, though this isn't a red line.
Actual working government: 2 weeks
Game of Thrones infographic: The Sun
New election before end of 2016 with these results.
It wouldn't take a big swing in any direction to change the government outcome from here. Unless it seems inevitable there'd be a new election within a few months, I expect all losing party leaders to resign. Labour/Tory lose if they don't get to the PM, Clegg loses if he doesn't end up continuing a Tory coalition (someone else will lead them in with Labour if they do). Farage loses Thanet South and resigns.
EDIT: Forgot about Respect, added in.
Last edited by RandBlade; 05-06-2015 at 08:21 PM.
Are you planning on making predictions Steely or Loki? Or anyone else?
I'm going to, assuming I find time before polls close.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
The polls kind of suck for reliable estimates. I can't see a grand coalition coming together. The Tories have no path to power unless the polls are ridiculously flawed. A Labour coalition with the Lib Dems, supported by the SNP, makes the most sense. But the Lib Dems said they'd support the largest party, while Labour said they won't work with the SNP. Both breaking their promises would not be the best way to form a new government. Plus the three parties together would only have a majority of 20-25 seats, which tells me the government would collapse within a year.
I doubt UKIP gets 3 seats, not that this will really matter.
Hope is the denial of reality
Lib Dems said they'll support the largest party first, and then work with the second largest party if that goes nowhere. Tories can't form a government with the Lib-Dems because the numbers won't add up. That's what they did last time, they started negotiations with the Tories then started talking with Labour when they thought they Tory deal might not go anywhere (probably a negotiating tactic as much as anything), even though they eventually ended up in coalition with the Conservatives.
Lab-Lib don't need to work with the SNP in the sense of a coalition or a confidence and supply deal, because SNPs aren't going to do anything that's going to potentially put the Tories in power, or vote with the Tories in a confidence motion to bring down a Labour minority government or a Lib-Lab coalition. They'd never live it down.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
PREDICTIONS:
SEATS:
Tory: 278 / 34%
Labour: 271 / 31%
Lib: 20 / 9%
SNP: 51
UKIP: 1 / 13%
OTHERS: who cares
PARTIES ATTEMPT TO FORM GOVERNMENT: Tories think about it, maybe talk to the Lib-Dems, UKIP and Christ knows who, but don't even try it because Lab-SNP can pwn them. Lab-Lib minority government, but everyone is getting ready for another election. Nick Clegg is smug that he called it. Since there's absolutely no reason to think that anything will change electorally between then and now, we're probably looking at annual elections for the foreseeable. So that's awesome. FTPT ladies and gentlemen. SUCH STABILITY. MUCH DECISIVE RESULT.
LEADER RESIGNATIONS: None.
NO COALITION PLEDGE VIOLATION: Milliband, who said he wouldn't.
RED LINE VIOLATION: Lib Dems, because that's what they do.
WORKING GOVERNMENT TIME FRAME: arguably never
FIRST GOT INFO-GRAPHIC: Indepedent.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
The SNP will also expect a king's ransom for their continued support, and at some point Labour will say no. I can't see a second budget passing under these circumstances.
Hope is the denial of reality
I'll play
Con: 284 36%
Lab: 260 32%
SNP: 53
LDems: 23 9%
UKIP: 3 9%
Greens: 1 2%
Others: the rest
Coalition attempts: Labour, SNP, LD. Tories won't bother.
Coalition violation: Labour and Lib Dems with SNP
Government: Labour, SNP, LD
Working within: 3 weeks
Resignations: Bennett, Cameron
Eventual Outcome Boris Johnson is elected to lead the Conservative Party after Cameron's resignation. Fights for a vote of no-confidence in the Lab/LD/SNP Coaltion, wins early general election in 2017 as a concession, wins that election with a Tory majority government, becomes one of the all-time great British PMs and leads the country into times of great prosperity and happiness.
Last edited by Timbuk2; 05-07-2015 at 07:47 AM.
Well my Facebook is certainly flooded with the election today. A lot of people sharing how they're voting (if my vocal Facebook friends were representative it'd be a Labour landslide) but far more saying they're voting with an "I'm a voter" thing Facebook itself is doing today.
This is what I put as my Facebook status this morning, sharing an image posted by my local (and incredibly marginal) MPI'll be voting Conservative today for four simple heartfelt reasons (though I could list more):
1: We have a great local MP in David Mowat who's done a good job for Warrington
2: The economy - its not just numbers, its more jobs and security for all
3: The NHS. Yes, vote Conservative for the NHS. A crap economy means cutting the NHS, as Labour-ran Wales had to do and Labour pledged to do at the last election. The Conservatives are pledging more for the NHS this time than Labour is too.
4: My daughter Chloe. The deficit is not meaningless, any debt we borrow now is mortgaging against our children't future. We spend £1billion a week on interest on debt and I don't want to keep loading more debt onto her and her generation - it's not fair.
I hope others in Warrington and elsewhere agree and vote Conservative, but even if you don't politics isn't meaningless so final thought is to make sure you put some thought into it and do go and vote for what you believe in. Or if you can't decide, then spoil your ballot so your vote still is counted. People fought for this right for us to decide our own future and it remains as important now as ever.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Question: why do so many voters consider social media (like Facebook or Twitter) a more reliable "source" of information, and persuasion, than traditional journalism/news?
Exit poll:
Con 316
Lab 239
SNP 58
Lib Dem 10
UKIP 2
WOW!!!!
Beware, exit polls aren't the same as voting results.
dat exit poll
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Wow, is it even going to be possible to form a government ?
Congratulations America
Dewey wins!
Even if Cameron does win re-election, didn't he promise to "re-evaluate" the UK's commitment to the EU?
Actually the headline should read ; 'everybody loses'
Congratulations America
Those exit polls
Have you ever read the Daily Mail?
There's a man goin' 'round, takin' names
And he decides who to free and who to blame
Yes Con+LD=326 - overall majority, and a majority of 7 with Sinn Fein not taking seats.
Though more likely Con minority government on those figures. They'll have a landslide victory in England for England-only votes (I don't see the 58 SNP turning up for those votes realistically) and can work with a very divided opposition bench on an issue by issue basis.
Or the Mirror LOL. There's no impartial papers in the UK - though the one mega surprise of the paper endorsements was the Independent (a quite left-wing paper) supporting the coalition.
The exit polls seem wildly off base.
Hope is the denial of reality
Exit poll or opinion polls?
The exit polls have a far better track record than opinion polls do - but of course its far, far too early to say.
EDIT: There's only been one exit poll. YouGov have released a panel poll.
1% rise in Sterling on the markets following the exit poll.
Exit polls. I don't buy the SNP getting 58 and the Lib Dems 10.
Hope is the denial of reality
I dunno Loki, it's possible the opinion polls got the popular vote correct but the exit polls are more accurately predicting the way the actual seats fall, because the exit poll is conducted at constituency level.
A lot of those seats are on a knife-edge, very small shifts in the popular vote can produce dramatic shifts in one direction or another.
Because, you know, our electoral system is fucking stupid.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
You think it's conceivable that the SNP got all but 1 seat in Scotland?
Hope is the denial of reality
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