TRUMP 2016

[Loki]

He has 743 while the remaining candidates have 716 delegates between them. Rubio has some true but is not going to be winning more, while Cruz has 20% of his delegates from his home state that won't be occurring again. Kasich has nearly 50% of his delegates from his home state that won't be occurring again.

Trump hasn't reached his effective home state (New York) yet, that is next week and he is likely to win the vast bulk if not all of the 95 delegates available there.

The point is he's won less than half of the available thus far, and he's unlikely to improve that pace in the future. He's going to do well in New York and the other states on the east Coast, but he's also going to do relatively poorly everywhere else (getting 30-40%, which not enough to get 51% of the delegates in most states), especially on the west coast.

Incidentally, Trump plateaued nationally, and he's down about 6-8% from his peak last month.

[wiggin]

In other fun election news, Kasich clearly has no idea the level of sophistication that religious Jews use in studying and parsing religious texts. Warning: cringe-worthy video attached. He literally was telling people Bible stories that ever kindergartener learns when these students are in the equivalent of religious postgraduate education.

I also love the part when you can tell the students are trying to figure out how to explain what they're studying when it's almost certainly an unbearably esoteric topic which Kasich wouldn't have a chance of understanding.

And, in honor of this august occasion, I bring you a video history of Jewish political pandering. Watching Ted Cruz 'enjoy' eating matza is definitely worth it.

http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/1995...ical-pandering

[Flixy]

Amusing, though I wouldn't call most of those pandering but more of a joining in (or attempt to ). A bit like a foreign visitor giving a speech and trying to say a few Dutch words when they're here - I appreciate the effort (and laugh at the result ). Pandering is a bit more negative for me. Oh, and does anyone actually like matza? :P

On a side note, the line in the first article comparing it to visiting MIT and mentioning Newton, that's also very very common if you mention you're in any science related thing - except most of the time whatever people are spouting about it is actually completely wrong.

[wiggin]

Oh, yeah, it's a mixed bag about how egregious each case it, but they're all pandering of one variety or another. There's no way any of them would be caught dead in those situations unless they were trying to appear friendly with the Jews to get a few votes. (Ok, except for Boris Johnson - he's happy to look like a fool even if no votes are on the line.) I absolutely loved Rick Perry's comically uncomfortable stance, but to be honest all of them are awful in one way or another. It's not specifically a Jewish thing - politicans do all sorts of pandering for nearly every demographic slice on the planet - but they do look awfully uncomfortable doing it. Have you ever seen one of these candidates try to eat 'local' food of one way or another (anything from a Philly cheesesteak to a pork chop on a stick to, well, matza)? It's absolutely hilarious. Honestly in most of these circumstances I think there's little upside and lots of downside - downside if you end up looking so deeply uncomfortable or out of touch that your target demographic thinks negatively (and extra demerits trying to pander), and the minor upside of seeming like 'one of us' if you pull it off brilliantly. People know that most candidates are old, rich, white, Christian, men. Even variations on this (e.g. Obama, Clinton, etc.) are coming at these from a similar place. Trying to fake a sense of belonging with, say, Haitian culture is going to fail miserably. IMO much better to offer thoughtful policies tailored to address the needs of the community in question, or to argue why your broader policy goals address those needs.

Kasich also had another recent gaffe during his New York campaigning when he spent a lot of time lecturing some obviously well-informed Jews about the paschal sacrifice, and drawing the (very) Christian connection between it and Jesus. Oops.

It's funny, I don't normally get people doing that with my field, but I suspect that's because my field is so far removed from a traditional discipline they may have learned about in high school that it's hard for them to even get that far. I do, however, get people who suggest different (very simplified) approaches to treating a given medical problem my technologies are trying to fix - generally ideas that are either absurdly unworkable or have been tried in much greater sophistication in the past. I never really understood that - people should recognize when their minimal knowledge is up against real expertise, and use it as an opportunity to learn. I've found that when I meet someone in a new field I've found it best to ask questions based on my limited knowledge to try to learn more about what they do. It results in much better conversations, and I hopefully don't come off as a fool at the same time. Politicians might do best to approach things similarly.

[Flixy]

Well not with my field specifically either, but mentioning I did physics and people sometimes do start about how they think, say, quantum mechanics works, which is so far removed from what it's actually about (movies like What the %&$* do we know certainly did not help). And when I try to point it out, I'm being too close minded and not philosophical enough, because "quantum physics means anything is possible". That's aside from the random drunk bum in a bar who claims he solved the energy problem but was blocked by Big Energy, of course

Anyway, it's a courtesy to try and sing along, or do a proper greeting, or eat the local food when you visit, I try to do that when I visit places/people (which is how I ended up trying matza, I can only sympathise with Cruz You'd think such an ancient culture would have come up with edible food by now ). Even if they fail at it, nice effort for trying. If a tourist here tries out Dutch liquorice candy and nearly throws up, at least he tried! Of course the reason they are there in the first place is obviously pandering.

And don't blame Kasich for trying to convert some heretics back to Christianity

[Ominous Gamer]

Oh, and does anyone actually like matza? :P

My wife teaches at a Jewish school and every year she has to warn the parents that no one eats the matza, so please get a little more creative when packing lunches during passover.

[Hazir]

I like matza, really do. To be honest I wouldn't know why someone would not like them.

And flixy; I don't think you can put down Jews as heretics who need to be brought back to Christianity. I think a fairly generally accepted version of that particular dynamic is that Christians are the ones that branched off, rightly or wrongly is not for me to decide.

[Lewkowski]

I like matza, really do. To be honest I wouldn't know why someone would not like them.

And flixy; I don't think you can put down Jews as heretics who need to be brought back to Christianity. I think a fairly generally accepted version of that particular dynamic is that Christians are the ones that branched off, rightly or wrongly is not for me to decide.

It is absolute appropriate from the Christian point of view. From a Jewish or non-religious view I could see how you would say that.

[Aimless]

In other fun election news, Kasich clearly has no idea the level of sophistication that religious Jews use in studying and parsing religious texts. Warning: cringe-worthy video attached. He literally was telling people Bible stories that ever kindergartener learns when these students are in the equivalent of religious postgraduate education.

Guessing #goysplaining will trend briefly before fading back into obscurity until the next election and that this will also experience a brief revival:



I find these incidents unsettling not because they show Kasich to be clueless about Yeshiva students or Judaism but because I think they illustrate a dangerous character-flaw.

Many people are in the habit of thinking that they are always right, that they know all that's really worth knowing, that the only people worthy of respect are the people they like and that their own sermons are the only conversations really worth having for their own sake. I have from the beginning liked Kasich more than the rest of the clowns in the Republican lineup, but I've been worried about the possibility that he may be the kind of man who's always right and who's gotten into the habit of surrounding himself with people who let him get away with always being "right". It's both worrying and saddening to see this example of how he approaches topics and people for whom he obviously has little interest or respect. Not only because it's lame or douchey but because I believe it indicates a closed mind and a closed heart.

But better that than a closed appetite I guess why would anyone dislike matzo? Obviously vastly inferior to tunnbröd but nevertheless.

[wiggin]

Anyway, it's a courtesy to try and sing along, or do a proper greeting, or eat the local food when you visit, I try to do that when I visit places/people (which is how I ended up trying matza, I can only sympathise with Cruz You'd think such an ancient culture would have come up with edible food by now ). Even if they fail at it, nice effort for trying. If a tourist here tries out Dutch liquorice candy and nearly throws up, at least he tried! Of course the reason they are there in the first place is obviously pandering.

I actually disagree. I think people should try to embrace a new culture because they're interested in learning about it, not because they want to be courteous (or, in this case, because they are trying to curry favor). It doesn't mean one needs to want to join said culture, but I think experiencing other ways of doing things is valuable from an educational perspective, not because I want the natives to like me.

And hey, matzo is intended to be the 'bread of affliction'. No one advertised it as haute cuisine. Sadly, though, at least European Jews didn't do such a good job on other dishes, either.

And don't blame Kasich for trying to convert some heretics back to Christianity

All joking aside (and Hazir's perspective certainly makes more sense on who is the 'heretic' who can be converted 'back' to any religion), I think Kasich wasn't actually trying to convert anyone. I think he just genuinely didn't get that it would be offensive to bring Jesus into things. Passover has its own unique historical overtones due to blood libels and their awful legacy, and drawing parallels between the blood of Jesus and the paschal sacrifice Jews used to perform every year understandably raises hackles. He just clearly didn't get it; somewhat amusing, of course, but also a bit worrying.

My wife teaches at a Jewish school and every year she has to warn the parents that no one eats the matza, so please get a little more creative when packing lunches during passover.

I don't get that - what parent in their right mind would send matza in a kid's lunch? Hell, why eat matza at all on Passover except for the seder night? It's pretty easy to make healthy, tasty meals that just don't include bread (essentially, just have a gluten-free diet for a week) without resorting to the frankly disgusting food that is specially made for Passover.

I like matza, really do. To be honest I wouldn't know why someone would not like them.

Try eating it instead of bread for a week. Or, for that matter, just try eating ~2 sheets of the stuff at the beginning of a meal. You'll rapidly learn to hate it.

[Loki]

I'm with Hazir on this one. And I generally don't like bread. Though matzah here is prohibitively expensive, so I don't buy it.

[Ominous Gamer]

I don't get that - what parent in their right mind would send matza in a kid's lunch? Hell, why eat matza at all on Passover except for the seder night? It's pretty easy to make healthy, tasty meals that just don't include bread (essentially, just have a gluten-free diet for a week) without resorting to the frankly disgusting food that is specially made for Passover.

Most of the parents aren't Jewish, just rich. The parents that are in charge of the kids are generally the trophy spouses and dumb as fucking rocks. They have no idea how to handle the restrictions or holidays, the school sends home a reminder about whats not allowed, with a few substitute suggestions, and the parents latch onto matza cause its one of the things the kids learn about and recognize the name of.

[earthJoker]

And I generally don't like bread.

Understandable considering how awful the US and UK bread tastes.

[Loki]

Can't argue with that.

[wiggin]

Understandable considering how awful the US and UK bread tastes.

Given the remarkable variety of bread I can purchase here, I think that's an awfully hard statement to support. If you mean that Wonderbread or the equivalent is awful, I couldn't agree more. But that's hardly the typical loaf of bread your average upper-middle-class professional is going to be eating. I, for example, most frequently purchase from these guys (or make my own), and it's pretty damned good - and available in most local supermarkets.

So bah!

[Loki]

In most of the world, you don't have to be upper-middle-class to afford (and to have access to) non-awful bread.

[wiggin]

In most of the world, you don't have to be upper-middle-class to afford (and to have access to) non-awful bread.

OK so I admit my taste in bread runs a bit pricey, but you can get a decent mass-market loaf for just marginally more than the cheapest option. (Also, I wasn't saying you needed to be upper middle class to afford it - the bread isn't THAT expensive. Rather, I was suggesting that your typical plebe actually prefers Wonderbread or the equivalent.) And in other countries they have price controls in their socialist dystopia.

[earthJoker]

I, for example, most frequently purchase from these guys (or make my own), and it's pretty damned good - and available in most local supermarkets.

So bah!

This is the kind of bread sold here anywhere. What I really dislike is this kind of stuff:


Why would one eat non-toasted toast bread?

[Dreadnaught]

Peanut butter and jelly sandwiches?

Also, why does the Republican party require 1237 delegates instead of 1337 delegates?

[earthJoker]

Because they are n00bs.

[Hazir]

Try eating it instead of bread for a week. Or, for that matter, just try eating ~2 sheets of the stuff at the beginning of a meal. You'll rapidly learn to hate it.

Try finishing of a pack of the stuff all by yourself

[GGT]

Also, why does the Republican party require 1237 delegates instead of 1337 delegates?

Because there's more than 2,400 delegates at stake, and that's a majority?

What's less clear is how these numbers are decided in the first place, and by whom. Does anyone know?

[Loki]

North Korean official on Trump comments: 'Totally absurd and illogical'

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/17/politi...ump/index.html

[Lewkowski]

Because there's more than 2,400 delegates at stake, and that's a majority?

What's less clear is how these numbers are decided in the first place, and by whom. Does anyone know?

Woooooosh.

[Loki]

So much for stopping Trump at the convention.

[Lewkowski]

So much for stopping Trump at the convention.

The fuck is wrong with people.

[Loki]

Bandwagoners.

[wiggin]

Absent a miracle in Indiana, looks like Trump will get the nomination; as a corollary, it makes it highly likely our next president will be Hillary Clinton. Could be worse, all things considered, but I'm deeply concerned about the current state of the GOP and the chances of another wildly unsuitable nominee in four years.

I think the focus will now shift to Congress: how will a Trump candidacy affect other races, especially in the Senate? The Dems are likely to pick up a few seats but if Trump alters the dynamics, especially turnout by moderate Republicans, they have a solid chance of capturing a (slim) majority - there are moderately vulnerable seats in NV, PA, IL, WI, OH, and NH - of these only NV is currently blue. I don't see more than 51 or 52 D seats, though, and the House seems to be a reasonably safe GOP bet for now - barring a truly horrendous general for Trump that causes all sorts of ructions. So we can expect some more divided government, which isn't necessarily such a bad things. Ryan, while certainly a strong conservative, seems reasonable, and it's at least faintly possible the Democrats will put someone less inclined to demagoguery than Reid in charge of the Senate. Who knows? We might even see government work for once.

Also I was happy to see the results of the MD and PA Senate primaries - the Democrats saw off challenges by the progressive wing, meaning (in MD) that a non-nut will take Mikluski's seat and (in PA) they will field a decent candidate against Toomey. I think it's interesting that while both parties have seen insurgencies, the Democratic establishment has been much better at seeing off progressive challengers than the GOP in taking on its own 'outsider' candidates.

[Lewkowski]

I'm also worried about the parties future. Frankly the best thing that can probably happen is if Trump gets absolutely crushed in the general election. I'm so incredibly frustrated by the idiots who voted for him. Anyone with a brain would realize he doesn't stand a chance in hell in the general. Everyone should expect better than Trump - just listen to his quotes. Just read his twitter feed the guy is a freaking clown. He whines non-stop talks like a 2 year old. UGH what a colossal embarrassment.

[Loki]

All bets are off with a Trump nomination (which the better markets put at 75%). Republicans aren't going to vote for Hillary Clinton, but a large number simply won't turn up to vote. Without a presidential candidate to vote for, turnout is usually down ~20%. If we assume that 20% of Republicans who hate Trump (about 35%) don't vote in November, then would suggest Republicans would lose 7% of their voters. Thanks to gerrymandering, this is unlikely to cost Republicans more than 10-15 seats in the House (to see how ridiculous gerrymandering is, look at the number of elections decided by <5% in 2015: 25 out of 435). In the Senate, there's a totally different picture. With 7 Democrats and 21 Republicans running for reelection, I can envision a complete massacre. The Republicans will lose anything from 5 to 8 seats, which means a bare Democratic majority at the very minimum.