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Thread: Why do you think the murder rate is rising in Baltimore?

  1. #1

    Default Why do you think the murder rate is rising in Baltimore?

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...cord.html?_r=0

    "After the April death of Freddie Gray, a black man who died from injuries sustained while detained by the Baltimore police, the city had its worst riots in more than four decades. Now, the city is waiting warily as legal proceedings against the six officers charged in Mr. Gray’s death move through the courts. But Baltimore is also in the throes of another crisis: A sharp increase in homicides that, by the end of the year, left the city with the highest per-capita murder rate in its history.

    Residents, analysts and policymakers here are divided over the precise cause of the surge in homicides. Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake fired the city’s police commissioner, Anthony W. Batts, over the summer, calling for change during a surge in crime.
    Below are some of the key figures from a violent year. (All data comes from Open Data or the Baltimore Police Department unless otherwise noted.)"

    Thoughts?

  2. #2
    The way the Laquan McDonald case was handled by the legal system and the politicians of Chicago undermined the legitimacy of the legal system in the eyes of the city's minorities. The kind of social norms that make someone think twice about committing murder went away. As did the already low level of willingness to cooperate with the police to investigate murders (which decreases the cost of committing murder).

    I also wouldn't be surprised if the police aren't policing just as much as they used to in the past. It's certainly true in New York.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    The way the Laquan McDonald case was handled by the legal system and the politicians of Chicago undermined the legitimacy of the legal system in the eyes of the city's minorities. The kind of social norms that make someone think twice about committing murder went away. As did the already low level of willingness to cooperate with the police to investigate murders (which decreases the cost of committing murder).

    I also wouldn't be surprised if the police aren't policing just as much as they used to in the past. It's certainly true in New York.
    I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.

    I'm more willing to entertain the idea that the less cooperation with police is playing a factor as well as police officers doing less policing (for a number of reasons).

    The sad thing is that all of the negative attention on police (and it is far more than just one case, some of it justified, some if it not) could be one of the reasons that the murder rate is going up. And do you know who that most effects? The Black Lives Matter movement and their antics is likely causing the death of MORE black youth and men.
    Last edited by Lewkowski; 04-12-2016 at 06:27 AM.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.
    Of course it is. If you believe in a legitimate legal system and someone wrongs you then you want it solved via the legal system.

    If you don't then you take actions into your own hands. Which causes a cycle of violence and gang shootings etc which even if you don't care about gang-on-gang shootings can and will have innocents caught in the crossfire.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.
    So you think people's first response to any grievance is always violence? What sort of psychopath are you?
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Thoughts?
    That it's pretty refreshing to see you start a thread which isn't designed to make some kind of daft LIBERALS ARE MAKING EVERYTHING BAD agenda.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    The sad thing is that all of the negative attention on police (and it is far more than just one case, some of it justified, some if it not) could be one of the reasons that the murder rate is going up. And do you know who that most effects? The Black Lives Matter movement and their antics is likely causing the death of MORE black youth and men.
    Oh, nope. There it is. Yup. Yeah, it's right here.

    Never mind. Move along everyone. Nothing to see here.
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.

    I'm more willing to entertain the idea that the less cooperation with police is playing a factor as well as police officers doing less policing (for a number of reasons).
    It's been pointed out to you (several times) that a 'police presence' doesn't automatically mean good things, especially in areas where police have used racial profiling, and cops are more likely to shoot or choke-hold black males to death, even if they're crime victims. But you refuse to listen, or consider any other perspective that's different from your own.


    The sad thing is that all of the negative attention on police (and it is far more than just one case, some of it justified, some if it not) could be one of the reasons that the murder rate is going up. And do you know who that most effects? The Black Lives Matter movement and their antics is likely causing the death of MORE black youth and men.
    Wow, you sound like that lib'rul Bill Clinton trying to justify the unintended consequences of his Crime Bill!

    Lewk, either you truly want to discuss violent crime, and understand the correlations and causations, in order to make better public policies...or you're just trolling.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Of course it is. If you believe in a legitimate legal system and someone wrongs you then you want it solved via the legal system.

    If you don't then you take actions into your own hands. Which causes a cycle of violence and gang shootings etc which even if you don't care about gang-on-gang shootings can and will have innocents caught in the crossfire.
    I don't think that is what Loki was referring to in regards to respecting the legal system. The way I interpret what he was saying is in regards to what I've seen ivory tower criminal justice professors drone on about the importance of the systems legitimacy in the crime rate. IE - If people think laws are unfair they will be more likely to break them. And to that I say nonsense. If you are going to rob someone you don't take into account the fairness of the system or its legitimacy, you just rob someone. That type person is a moral cesspool - they do the crime because they gain something that's it.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    So you think people's first response to any grievance is always violence? What sort of psychopath are you?
    No. I'm not sure how you read that into my statement.

    People will murder people for a whole list of reasons (rage, revenge, profit etc) and none of those cases do the murderers stop and ponder about the 'legitimacy of the legal system' before taking action.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    I don't think that is what Loki was referring to in regards to respecting the legal system. The way I interpret what he was saying is in regards to what I've seen ivory tower criminal justice professors drone on about the importance of the systems legitimacy in the crime rate. IE - If people think laws are unfair they will be more likely to break them. And to that I say nonsense. If you are going to rob someone you don't take into account the fairness of the system or its legitimacy, you just rob someone. That type person is a moral cesspool - they do the crime because they gain something that's it.
    More fool you then. There isn't a group of people who will never steal and another group of people who will always steal ... with nobody in the middle who might sometimes steal. Are you suggesting everyone who has ever engaged in online piracy falls under your "moral cesspool" category?

    Instead there is a small group of people who will never steal under any circumstances, another small group who will always steal ... but the large majority in the middle will if they think a combination of that they can get away with it and that it is justified.

    If the legal system is in disrespect then it is more easy to justify it to yourself.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    People will murder people for a whole list of reasons (rage, revenge, profit etc) and none of those cases do the murderers stop and ponder about the 'legitimacy of the legal system' before taking action.
    So you finally admit that your concept of "justice" has little to nothing to do with deterring wrong doing.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    More fool you then. There isn't a group of people who will never steal and another group of people who will always steal ... with nobody in the middle who might sometimes steal. Are you suggesting everyone who has ever engaged in online piracy falls under your "moral cesspool" category?

    Instead there is a small group of people who will never steal under any circumstances, another small group who will always steal ... but the large majority in the middle will if they think a combination of that they can get away with it and that it is justified.

    If the legal system is in disrespect then it is more easy to justify it to yourself.
    Let's not muddy the waters and look at 'civil' types of crimes. The type of person who murders, rapes,armed robbery, kidnapping and arson doesn't care at all about the legal system's legitimacy. Period. The only thing that causes them to pause is fear of consequences.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    So you finally admit that your concept of "justice" has little to nothing to do with deterring wrong doing.
    Just the opposite. Deterrence (either from the justice system or from the would be victim) is the only thing that prevents crime from being committed by the criminal class.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    No. I'm not sure how you read that into my statement.

    People will murder people for a whole list of reasons (rage, revenge, profit etc) and none of those cases do the murderers stop and ponder about the 'legitimacy of the legal system' before taking action.
    But you do think they stop and ponder the rate at which the police manage to close cases. You are dismissing here the exact same kind of personal analysis which you say is the only kind criminals use regarding getting caught and which you say is why harsh punishment deters crime. The risk of punishment cannot be a deterrent to crime if the availability of non-criminal alternatives is not also a deterrent, they both require the exact same pauses to think things through.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Just the opposite. Deterrence (either from the justice system or from the would be victim) is the only thing that prevents crime from being committed by the criminal class.
    In which case, you'd find it impossible to explain in the Chicago or Baltimore crime rate, seeing that the severity of the punishments didn't change.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  16. #16
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Just the opposite. Deterrence (either from the justice system or from the would be victim) is the only thing that prevents crime from being committed by the criminal class.
    Dude, you have just shown that you're incapable of making a cogent argument. Again.

    Dunning-Kruger at its finest.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  17. #17
    The perceived legitimacy of the system and the perceived goodness of cops influences the kind of social pressure and guidance would-be criminals receive from non-criminals in their communities eg. families, friends etc. In the long run I do believe that legitimacy and decency are important for keeping crime down by increasing the appeal of a law-abiding life--and decreasing the appeal of gangs and gang-leaders--for at-risk youths, thus preventing them from getting on the slippery slope that leads from reckless punk to hardened criminal.

    However, I'm not convinced that's the most important and immediate reason for the spike in homicides.

    Is this a lasting and real trend that can't be explained by normal variation, demographic and socioeconomic changes etc?

    Hot summer months are generally associated with higher rates of crimes such as homicides, robberies and burglaries etc iirc.

    It's possible that the riots sparked by the police's actions made for a more aggressive climate that both increased the occurrence of violence and made violent criminals more bold.

    It's possible that some of the homicides were in retaliation for things done during the riots.

    I note also the possibility of an increase in the use of guns and in the number of shootings.



    Of course, I don't know why the murder-rate in Baltimore seems to have spiked last year but a useful guiding principle in these discussions is that any explanation that appeals to you probably isn't the correct one.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Just the opposite. Deterrence (either from the justice system or from the would be victim) is the only thing that prevents crime from being committed by the criminal class.
    This is nonsensical. As you yourself asserted, criminals "do the crime because they gain something". If a non-criminal life is shown to be both attainable and appealing--for financial, social and psychological reasons--that can prevent crime. If it's too cold outside, that can prevent some crimes. If a crime is too much of a hassle to commit, that can prevent crime. If you never fall under the influence of gangs and more experienced criminals, that can prevent crime. If you have both your parents and those parents are happy and well and your life isn't shit, that can prevent crimes. If you have ADHD but get a diagnosis and good help in time before your school-career is fucked up, that can prevent crime. And so on.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    In which case, you'd find it impossible to explain in the Chicago or Baltimore crime rate, seeing that the severity of the punishments didn't change.
    Ah but if police are policing less (one of your theories which may be true) the likelihood of the consequences is changing.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    This is nonsensical. As you yourself asserted, criminals "do the crime because they gain something". If a non-criminal life is shown to be both attainable and appealing--for financial, social and psychological reasons--that can prevent crime. If it's too cold outside, that can prevent some crimes. If a crime is too much of a hassle to commit, that can prevent crime. If you never fall under the influence of gangs and more experienced criminals, that can prevent crime. If you have both your parents and those parents are happy and well and your life isn't shit, that can prevent crimes. If you have ADHD but get a diagnosis and good help in time before your school-career is fucked up, that can prevent crime. And so on.
    All right, I'll grant you t hat deterrence is more than just justice system and would be victim. You are correct - bad weather outside does deter crime because the costs of it go higher (gotta freeze my ass off to go rob someone).

    My point, if you care at all, is that the legitimacy of the legal system does not influence the criminal mindset in terms of if they will do the crime or not. They simply don't care. If the perceived benefit is greater than the perceived costs they will do it. Unlike regular citizens who operate under a moral code that goes beyond a simple cost/benefit analysis there are no other factors for the criminal class to consider.

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    All right, I'll grant you t hat deterrence is more than just justice system and would be victim. You are correct - bad weather outside does deter crime because the costs of it go higher (gotta freeze my ass off to go rob someone).

    My point, if you care at all, is that the legitimacy of the legal system does not influence the criminal mindset in terms of if they will do the crime or not. They simply don't care. If the perceived benefit is greater than the perceived costs they will do it. Unlike regular citizens who operate under a moral code that goes beyond a simple cost/benefit analysis there are no other factors for the criminal class to consider.
    At what point does a regular citizen become a member of the criminal class?

  22. #22
    The moment they download a bit torrent client they are irredeemably a moral cesspool.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Enoch the Red View Post
    At what point does a regular citizen become a member of the criminal class?
    Obviously there isn't a strict definition so let's go with people who do one of the crimes I listed. The people who are moral voids of filth who are parasites on society. The rapists, the murderers, the people who hold up banks and gas stations, the arsonist and the kidnappers. They will NEVER care about the 'legitimacy of the criminal justice system.'

    Now why RB likes to bring up bit torrent client downloading when the thread is specifically about the murder rate I couldn't tel you.

  24. #24
    Because you have repeatedly both in the past and in this thread included theft and robbery as a crime that only irredeemable criminals commit. Yet when the absurdness of your position is pointed out you blush and turn away.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #25
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    bad weather outside does deter crime because the costs of it go higher (gotta freeze my ass off to go rob someone)
    Nope, it prevents crime. There's a difference between prevention and deterrence, though I suspect that any attempt at explaining that distinction to you will fly straight over your head.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Obviously there isn't a strict definition so let's go with people who do one of the crimes I listed. The people who are moral voids of filth who are parasites on society. The rapists, the murderers, the people who hold up banks and gas stations, the arsonist and the kidnappers. They will NEVER care about the 'legitimacy of the criminal justice system.'

    Now why RB likes to bring up bit torrent client downloading when the thread is specifically about the murder rate I couldn't tel you.
    Hey now, you said theft, and downloading material is theft. Robbery, taking money or property from a person or entity illegally. So you're now saying that there's a fundamental difference in the psychology of people depending on which precise acts they committed when engaged in a crime? How does that work? When does this "phase-change" alter their brains so that beating someone to death is the only way to deter them from shoplifting a tube of toothpaste?
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Hey now, you said theft, and downloading material is theft. Robbery, taking money or property from a person or entity illegally. So you're now saying that there's a fundamental difference in the psychology of people depending on which precise acts they committed when engaged in a crime? How does that work? When does this "phase-change" alter their brains so that beating someone to death is the only way to deter them from shoplifting a tube of toothpaste?
    The purpose was not to get hung up on details where y'all defend the lowest possible bar. Just like discussion on mandatory sentencing for sex crimes (rape, molestation) turns into a debate about statutory rape and peeing in public. I'm setting the bar based partially on what is universally agreed as awful crimes. That's why I'm not talking about piracy.

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Nope, it prevents crime. There's a difference between prevention and deterrence, though I suspect that any attempt at explaining that distinction to you will fly straight over your head.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4730512.html

    Common use of the word you ivory tower liberal.

    "It Turns Out, Cold Weather Might Actually Not Deter Criminals After All (INFOGRAPHIC)"

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Obviously there isn't a strict definition so let's go with people who do one of the crimes I listed. The people who are moral voids of filth who are parasites on society. The rapists, the murderers, the people who hold up banks and gas stations, the arsonist and the kidnappers. They will NEVER care about the 'legitimacy of the criminal justice system.'

    Now why RB likes to bring up bit torrent client downloading when the thread is specifically about the murder rate I couldn't tel you.
    What about somebody who not only enables and pays to have someone kidnapped, but then goes onto enslave that person for the rest of their life, often times subjecting them to brutal treatment, harsh conditions, and perhaps even rape? What about people who riot in the streets, don disguises, and steal and/or destroy private property? Moral voids of filth or founding fathers?

  30. #30
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4730512.html

    Common use of the word you ivory tower liberal.

    "It Turns Out, Cold Weather Might Actually Not Deter Criminals After All (INFOGRAPHIC)"
    And? I teach physics and chemistry. I can teach you shitloads of "common use words" and "common knowledge" which have either serious issues or are flat-out wrong.

    I call such an argument: "The lazy moron's defense."

    And citing some guy from some newspaper doesn't make your usage in any way valid. There are countless examples where some journalist or other doesn't really fully comprehend what he's writing about.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

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