Premium subsidies, which will be available to people who buy insurance through the exchanges being established, are supposed to address that [affordability] problem, experts say. A 40-year-old in a medium-cost geographic area who earns $21,660 (200 percent of the federal poverty level) and whose annual premium is $3,500, for example, would receive a subsidy of $2,135 that goes directly to the insurer, while he or she pays $1,365. A family of four with an income of $44,100 would pay $2,778 while the government subsidizes the plan to the tune of $6,656.
The proportion of income people at this level have to pay for insurance is capped at no more than 6.3 percent of their earnings.
As income increases, the subsidy drops; families earning 300 to 400 percent of the federal poverty level are expected to pay up to 9.5 percent of their income, an amount that ranges from $6,284 to $8,379 per year; the federal subsidy is from $3,150 to $1,056. At the same time, however, a provision states that anyone who cannot find a premium that costs less than 8 percent of their income is exempted from the penalty.
It’s hard to predict whether the carrots and sticks of subsidies and penalties will suffice to bring people into the system, when there are so many are unemployed or underemployed people, many earning less in today’s economy than before and worried about job security and prospects.
From a pure dollars-and-cents point of view, it is cheaper for people just to pay the penalty. Even when fully implemented in 2016, the penalty is limited to no more than 2.5 percent of taxable income, and it starts out even lower, with a penalty of $95 or 1 percent of income in 2014.
“It’s hard to analyze because people are making health decisions based on their wallets,” said Sara Horowitz, who founded the Freelancers Union, a nonprofit organization that offers health insurance to freelancers.