"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
We have an independent national bank, its most important duty is price stability. The stability of exchange rates is only second to that, this is the reason the national bank has given up minimal rate of CHF 1.20 for the Euro.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
44% of our exports going to the EU vs 16% of theirs coming to us. 3% of their GDP compared to what, 10% (?) of ours. Get real. It's clear who will need who more.
I'm not sure what form you think these hypothetical free trade deals will take, but if you think we're going to form a single common market with the rest of the world then I am telling you that is simply not going to happen.But at present we're restricted to a deal with 10% of the world's economic growth, by leaving we will unlock the potential to access the full potential of all 100%. I would rather 100% than 10%, wouldn't you?
The game is over
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It's time to pay
Who's got the joker?
What's interesting is that the UK currently has a favorable situation where it, through its membership in the EU, has complete access to the single market as well as very free access to many other markets through the EU's various association agreements. On top of this there are the expected future benefits eg. of relatively free access to the US and Canadian markets.
While a Brexit may in theory allow the UK to "unlock the potential to access the full potential of all 100%" of the world's economic growth I think it's fair to ask what fraction of all that growth the UK will really be able to access freely over, say, the coming decade or two, and to compare that to its prospects if it chooses to remain in the EU.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
I can think of two concrete and tangible benefits for leaving the EU
1) Nigel Farage and UKIP will, presumably, go away
2) No longer have to put up with those stupid "this site uses cookies" notices
Tempting, but not worth the associated loss of influence and economic damage
Last edited by Steely Glint; 06-13-2016 at 09:47 PM.
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Yes I agree. But I am trying to run a business here. Let me complain at least a little to feel better![]()
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
You know, I see those figures being paraded about over and over again. But I wonder if they contain services or not.
I think free trade in goods may be relatively easy, but services may very well be a solid no. It may even be impossible to keep a free trade deal on services with the EU.
What Randblade's eurohating buddies also don't grasp is that the interests of the countries that have a trade surplus with the UK (The Netherlands and Germany) could easily be outvoted by countries that have a trade deficit with the UK (pretty much all the others). Thus making the argument that 'they still will want to sell their BMW's to us' rather moot.
Last edited by Hazir; 06-13-2016 at 05:05 PM.
Congratulations America
They don't, I checked.You know, I see those figures being paraded about over and over again. But I wonder if they contain services or not.
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All EU nations barring Ireland, Malta and Luxembourg run a trade surplus with the UK. Ireland will want (and get) a continuation of the UK-Eire Common Travel Area so will absolutely not veto it. Nor will Malta. So that leaves Luxembourg, if you seriously think Merkel will permit a halt to BMW's exports due to Luxembourg alone you're on cloud cuckoo land.
It was easier to ignore back then, it was a bigger forum.
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My mistake was, that at some point I thought that Randblade was willing to engage in an honest debate. He isn't and never was.
What he and little miss sunshine don't seem to get is that I have drawn that conclusion and after that Randblade by and large fell of my radar. I roughly have not reacted to anything EU related from the moment your referendum was announced.
Untill I came to the conclusion that your country might vote to leave the EU. That creates a situation that is interesting in several ways and I was interested in talking about it with people other than Randblade. When he finally made his 'positive' thread I made the mistake of taking that serious (yes, I made the same mistake again) realised soon I was wrong and basically am back to not being too interested in what he has to say. However, sometimes he has a claim so outrageously stupid or untrue that I can't stop myself from reacting. My bad.
But you know what? My reactions to him are by and large the same as your own reactions to him.
Congratulations America
There's this thing called the ignore list. You put me on it once for shouting at you about some of your rape apologia in a thread once, so I guess you could do the same for Randblade if you truly hold the degree of contempt and indifference you claim to.
The game is over
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It's time to pay
Who's got the joker?
She has to keep the German economy and European economy on the road. A trade war with their #1 customer won't just hurt BMW, it will hurt Greek Feta farmers and every other nation across Europe too. The last thing Germany needs is the Greek economy and every other economy suffering due to a trade war with their #1 customer. Again every nation other than Ireland, Malta and Luxembourg runs a trade surplus with the UK and so they will all lose out from a trade war - and if they lose out, given their economies are so fragile already, Merkel will end up with the bill.
She has to keep the EU together more. And giving special deals to countries that leave isn't the best way of doing that. It's also a great way of creating a nationalist backlash domestically.
Hope is the denial of reality
Most EU member states run a small surplus wrt the UK when services are taken into account so it's possible they'll suffer from not giving the UK a deal. At the same time, there are other considerations that may be more important. If that were not the case negotiating free trade agreements would be so easy that they'd practically be unnecessary and the UK would never consider risking a reduction in trade as a consequence of leaving the EU. Apart from embarrassing political considerations there's the matter of EU's long-standing policy of requiring greater compliance with its most important policies in exchange for greater access. Some other countries may also seek to fill the opening in the financial services sector left by a Brexit. Sure, Germany likes selling cars, but they may find it more worthwhile to sell financial services. I dunno. Maybe all Germans care about are cars. Either way you'd have to persuade all 27 states to play along for a real trade offer to become reality and even if Germany may want to dance with you others aka. the French may not.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
I think a lot of people have already discussed the trade issue, but I think your argument about migration is an interesting one. My main issue with it is that the problems you highlight are British ones, not EU ones. Essentially, due to political pressure the UK government has committed to sharply reducing immigration (albeit doing a pretty terrible job of it). As you note, this has resulted in a sharp squeeze on immigrants coming from non-EU countries - college students, skilled workers, etc. You argue that given the lifting of pressure from no longer needing to automatically accept immigrants from the EU, the government can ease up some on other sources of immigration.
My issue with this argument is two-fold. First, the issue is because of priorities dictated by the UK government, not the EU. The UK can easily accept the EU immigrants as well as a much larger number of skilled/student/etc. immigrants from elsewhere - it's just toxic due to domestic politics. Presumably the better fix would be to convince British voters that migration more broadly is a good thing; in the absence of that I find it unlikely that non-EU immigration will really be substantially increased. Even if it's 'good' immigration the headline numbers will still be too high.
Secondly, you assume that the renegotiated relationship between the UK and the EU wrt trade, regulation, etc. will not require some level of openness to EU migration. I think this assumption is suspect given the importance the EU places on free migration and the status of e.g. Switzerland and Norway. You might be screwed either way.
I appreciate the positive spin you're putting on things, but I'm not convinced by your argumentation.
"When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)
I'd like to add that I'm a bit baffled by this whole issue of 'immigration'. It was my understanding that one of the biggest shortcomings in the idea of a common market was that Europeans were not mobile enough. People not being willing to move to work in other countries was holding back our potential. Now that - admittedly as the result of an ugly recession in the south - people are finally showing a willingness to move suddenly the cure has become the problem? It's not just that there is no factual proof for it; if any it points towards immigrants having a positive effect on the British economy, but also, it goes against basic logic.
Congratulations America
The idea that the Little Englanders who are dominating the Leave campaign are going to turn around and push for more third world immigration is laughable.
Hope is the denial of reality
I've always agreed with you about this. One issue lately (and its not such an issue where I live in the north) is that in the South there are simply not enough houses or other infrastructure to cope with the pace the population is growing. Over a third of a million people net moved to the country last year. My answer is to build more homes and infrastructure but its not a quick fix and would require tearing up green belt rules and its not going to happen any time soon realistically.
The little Englanders like Farage have not been dominating the campaign, they've been pushed to one side and had almost no role to play in the campaign. Farage isn't even a member of Vote Leave the official leave campaign who regard him as toxic. The campaign has been dominated by Michael Gove and Boris Johnson and other people who are not Little Englanders. In a BBC debate Michael Gove was challenged by an audience member of Pakistani origin as to why immigration is being attacked and he said that rather than attacking immigration he had the same target as the PM but wanted to treat everyone equitably so that people from Pakistan are not discriminated against like as at the moment. Not something Farage would say.
Furthermore once the campaign is over what anyone like Farage wants is completely irrelevant. He's not an MP and it will be MPs in Parliament that form the government. It will be either Gove or Johnson who becomes PM so it's what they want that matters.
Ironically in this case it may be more to Farage's credit because people from Pakistan are probably being discriminated against in matters of immigration for reasons other than the EU. Of course I'm hoping Gove isn't just making empty promises because then in the event of a Brexit some of my family, from a country not unlike Pakistan in this respect, may get to visit a nearby country![]()
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Here's a good article similar to my line of thinking about embracing the world. I am surprised at how lazy some people are in their thinking in just putting it down to "Little Englander" without actually listening to what people are actually saying.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06...-backs-brexit/
![]()
Btw, re. one of the statements in the OP:
The EU fully ratified a free-trade agreement with South Korea in Dec. last year and that argument had been partially in force since 2011.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe...rade_Agreement
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
I give the "let's embrace the world" line of argument 10/10 for not being racist, but 0/10 for it's resemblance of reality.
The game is over
No more rounds left play
It's time to pay
Who's got the joker?
Additionally, the assertion in the OP that the EU has no trade agreement with Canada is only partially true:
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/
Here's to hoping a possible Brexit won't derail this and other ongoing and almost-finalized agreements (such as the deal with Japan).
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."