Transitions have uncertainty, not the end of the world. The only things certain in life are death and taxes.Originally Posted by Unheard Of
Transitions have uncertainty, not the end of the world. The only things certain in life are death and taxes.
I think they'll be relatively easy. If we were to mirror the EU's pre-existing schedule, scaled accordingly, I doubt there'd be a problem unless somebody chose to be awkward.
And moderate economic growth had you not voted to leave the EU.
As for WTO negotiations being straightforward: no they won't be. The WTO operates by consensus and all it takes is one country playing hardball...say Argentina.
http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing...us-post-brexit
Hope is the denial of reality
Moderate growth was a certainty had we not voted to leave the EU? I suppose all EU nations have had rotund economic growth in recent years, right? The Greeks would be delighted to be informed of that, when does their guaranteed growth start?
Last I checked you're not the Greeks. How is the economic performance of the other countries relevant?
Hope is the denial of reality
How do you mean "scaled accordingly"? How should one determine the appropriate scaling? Is scale the only concern?
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Because you made the variable that was relevant to guaranteed growth our EU membership but that by itself is no guarantor of growth as other EU members demonstrate.
There are a couple of major issues that need to be agreed, one is a schedule of tariffs - these are percentages and in the long term we may want to adjust these (lowering them probably) but in the short term it would be relatively quick and easy to continue the EU's pre-existing percentages for now. Another issue is for instance caps on subsidies to agriculture that the EU has agreed to. Obviously it wouldn't be appropriate for the UK to subsidise our agriculture by the same amount as the entire EU does. We would need to arrange a figure to scale accordingly, possibly negotiating as part of A50 negotiations to take the slice of subsidies that we already got and take over responsibility for that.
Those are the prime concerns I can think of.
LOL, that's so funny. Your ideas are always good for a solid laugh. It's not the tariffs that are the sticking point, it's the quota which are going to take forever to sort out.
Congratulations America
Somehow Randblade thinks that the other countries in Europe having problems is good for them. It doesn't occur to him that if they were doing well it would actually benefit the UK. And you're right, he is oddly proud of other countries doing worse.
Congratulations America
Like how it's taken 12 years to sort out the EU 28's quotas yet still the whole show has muddled along even without anything actually being sorted out?
The scaling I mentioned was for the quotas and subsidies etc as I mentioned to Aimless above.
There are four solutions to the quota issue:
1: We reach an agreement with the entire WTO and sort our own schedule out (the full solution).
2: We reach an agreement with the EU alone to take a portion of its quotas (like how the EU hasn't actually sorted out the accession states issues).
3: We rely on our pre-existing membership and ignore the lack of quotas until its taken to tribunal (like how the EU accession states haven't been sorted out).
4: We rely on our pre-existing membership and operate with zero quotas until a new deal is reached.
5: We drop to observer status and sort them out from scratch.
All of which allow us to trade on a WTO basis. Number 3 it a terrible option as we'd almost certainly both be taken to and lose at tribunal but these things take time to play out. Like how Germany and the ECB have at different points completely torn up and ignored the growth and stability pact rules.
No I'm not. Maybe if the EU stopped f###ing things up and took our advice at some point then you'd start growing once more.
All of your solutions mean that you are not even in the queue for a deal with the USA.
Funny way to show Obama wrong.
Congratulations America
Are you seriously saying that other countries are a better base of comparison than the UK itself? The EU provided YOU with moderate economic growth. Considering we're talking about the UK, I fail to see why it matters how much growth it provided to other countries.
Hope is the denial of reality
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37743700
Watch the news this morning and thought it was relevant.
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
As Hazir pointed out quotas are likely to be far more difficult to sort out than tariffs. The EU has mostly gotten away without officially revising its commitments because it has continuously negotiated with the WTO and because it has, by and large, been able to go beyond its original commitments, due to its expansion.
The UK would not be exceeding commitments--it would be moving backwards, even if you were to "scale" appropriately. This is because the single market as a whole is worth more than just the sum of its parts, much like having a whole house is more useful than being able to rent a living-room here, a bedroom there, a kitchen in another city and a toilet that's decided to relocate to an outhouse somewhere inconvenient.
It's also very difficult to determine how to scale your commitments precisely because of the current uncertainty about the EU's commitments.
1. Will take many years1: We reach an agreement with the entire WTO and sort our own schedule out (the full solution).
2: We reach an agreement with the EU alone to take a portion of its quotas (like how the EU hasn't actually sorted out the accession states issues).
3: We rely on our pre-existing membership and ignore the lack of quotas until its taken to tribunal (like how the EU accession states haven't been sorted out).
4: We rely on our pre-existing membership and operate with zero quotas until a new deal is reached.
5: We drop to observer status and sort them out from scratch.
All of which allow us to trade on a WTO basis. Number 3 it a terrible option
2. Absurd. The EU has agreements with the other WTO nations and has to try to honour those agreements. What makes you think you can make a deal "with the EU alone" that impacts the EU's deals with other countries?
3. You'll lose in court.
4. Undermines goodwill, constitutes a violation of your agreements and complicates the EU's negotiations which in turn complicates your negotiations with both the WTO and the EU. Arguable that your membership status would be called into question.
5. Will take many years.
All of these options are bad. More importantly, all of them increase the likelihood of UK-EU negotiations taking a very long time to conclude.
You could eliminate tariffs across the board or go well beyond your commitments by dramatically expanding your quotas, but that would probably be unpopular among British voters.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
It seems like Australia has come to the conclusion as well that it's no use to talk about trade with the UK untill they are truly and well outside the EU.
Which makes total sense to me. What the UK is doing was like a guy asking you to marry if the wife he's going to divorce doesn't allow him to continue living with her after the divorce. And then he suggests you already put the money down for the arrangements
Congratulations America
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-about-brexit
Another silly expert making a silly prediction.
Hope is the denial of reality
Politician who was publicly on the Remain side making the case to stay in Europe during the official campaign period in a speech to an ardently Remain business? Wow.
Whatever will you dig up next?
It's kind of all over the news so not a real find, but I am inclined to agree with you this time. However, there are lots of people who won't agree so it's damaging all the same.
Congratulations America
So was she lying then or is she lying now?
Hope is the denial of reality
I'm inclined to give the benefit of the doubt and say neither.
'Inclined' as in 'basically trusting' or as in 'it is easier for me not to contemplate my leader's fibs'?
There's a man goin' 'round, takin' names
And he decides who to free and who to blame
No as in both Hammond and May (we don't have a Clarkson) have been up front and honest that there will be challenges. Just saying that we will face up to those challenges. Same as I've been saying.
Well, you don't exactly have much choice to say otherwise, now, do you?
"Oh, hai, guys, this is much too difficult, we'll better give up now!" said no leader ever. Typical fluffwords deserving a place on the bullshit bingo.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
https://www.theguardian.com/business...els-in-britain
Nissan have decided to build new models in Sunderland (yay!), but have received "support and assurances" from the government (hmm!). Not clear yet whether this is good news, or evidence that manufacturers will need to be bribed to invest in post-Brexit Britain.
There's a man goin' 'round, takin' names
And he decides who to free and who to blame
Yeah it is a bit hard to tell. Potentially it could become very expernsive for you.
Congratulations America
Nissan have required "support and assurances" since before they even arrived in Sunderland. Not ideal by any means but it is the way that it is. I think it's evidence that life goes on either with or without Brexit.
Isn't that just what I said?
A decision was made and now we are going on with it. I kind of suspect that (like me) May could see the pros and cons of both sides and could live with either side winning. The opposite side won to what she supported but she's respecting the public's vote and getting on with it now. Some people want to rehash old arguments, she doesn't - that's not bullshit or dishonesty.
No, what you did was the usual bullshit bingo of trying to spin something you are forced to do into a more positive light.
It's like saying: "I just increased the resale-value of my car!" when it reality it was more like: "I simply had to repair the car - last night, 10 cars in my street were stolen. Only mine wasn't. And I didn't even lock it and left the keys in the ignition!"
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Except the question Loki asked was "was she lying then or is she lying now" and nothing you've said is demonstrating that my answer of neither is wrong.
Trying to make the best of the situation is entirely consistent with trying to avoid the situation (but failing) and has no dishonesty whatsoever.
Well, you needn't have been in this situation of course if people wouldn't have voted on the basis of the EU not being cuddly enough. How to make something good of the present mess, that is the million dollar question; S&P gave a new downgrade warning for the UK. Usually that means a downgrade. One of the reasons them list for the downgrade is that the Pound is in danger of losing its reserve currency status.
In the midst of actual good economic news the Pound is losing value.
My bet for the contents of the Nissan letter is that the government promised them no controls on imported parts so that production isn't hampered with a possible departure and a financial sweetener in the case of tariffs. The latter being the less important part, because there's no reason to asume we ll end up with tariffs.
Last edited by Hazir; 10-28-2016 at 08:19 PM.
Congratulations America
Of course it is because the Bank of England are actively pursuing policies to drive the pound lower.
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