Geopolitical impact of Brexit

[Aimless]

Obviously premature but would like to see some thoughts aka. speculative fiction on the impact of Brexit on things like the future of the EU, the EU's relationship with Turkey and especially on Russia's antics.

[Loki]

On the Russia front, Britain was one of the strongest backers of continued EU sanctions. I don't think we'll see the sanctions removed tomorrow, but they're certainly far more likely to be removed today than they were yesterday. There's a reason Russia was pushing so hard for a Brexit...

The security dimension is far more complex, especially with NATO playing a much more important part than the EU. But NATO's own internal cohesion was based on the high level of cooperation and amity between its neighbors. Brexit will change that. There's probably going to be a gradual decline in cooperation, which will in turn embolden Moscow.

What happens within Europe is the wild card. I have no idea how other countries will react. The consequences can range from a weaker but more cohesive Europe to half a dozen countries being pressured into similar referendums by their people. I don't really know enough about the Europeans to make an informed guess here. Though I did just read that the Swedes were most likely to say that other countries will follow the UK out of the EU.

[Hazir]

On the Russia front, Britain was one of the strongest backers of continued EU sanctions. I don't think we'll see the sanctions removed tomorrow, but they're certainly far more likely to be removed today than they were yesterday. There's a reason Russia was pushing so hard for a Brexit...

The security dimension is far more complex, especially with NATO playing a much more important part than the EU. But NATO's own internal cohesion was based on the high level of cooperation and amity between its neighbors. Brexit will change that. There's probably going to be a gradual decline in cooperation, which will in turn embolden Moscow.

What happens within Europe is the wild card. I have no idea how other countries will react. The consequences can range from a weaker but more cohesive Europe to half a dozen countries being pressured into similar referendums by their people. I don't really know enough about the Europeans to make an informed guess here. Though I did just read that the Swedes were most likely to say that other countries will follow the UK out of the EU.

I have no idea, the problem for the EU is that our leaders too long have been living with the idea that having a deal and holding everyone on board was more important than de quality of the deal. That has given the poison of europhobes to spread very deep.

[Loki]

I think the recent shift against the EU has been entirely due to the refugee issue. The EU structure and issues with bailouts didn't help, but there's no way we'd be seeing this 2-3 years ago.

[earthJoker]

So what's the next country. Maybe a Nexit? Or maybe a AUstritt.

[RandBlade]

Swexit?

[Hazir]

I think the recent shift against the EU has been entirely due to the refugee issue. The EU structure and issues with bailouts didn't help, but there's no way we'd be seeing this 2-3 years ago.

I don't agree; the EU lacks a mechanism to cope with those crises. That is the main problem. The crises themselves weren't that big.

[Loki]

http://dan-news.info/world/glava-dnr...ostava-es.html

At least the rebels in Eastern Ukraine are happy (use the translate button).

[LittleFuzzy]

The only claim I'd venture is that it's going to strengthen the resolve of the Swiss to not knuckle under to the EU's pressure/retaliations.

[earthJoker]

Most say the EU will not give in an inch now to Switzerland as they want to avoid a too good deal for anyone outside of their special club.

[Aimless]

What's the time frame on the Swiss problem?

[earthJoker]

In February 2017 the Swiss government has to take unilateral measurements if no agreement is reached. So actually there is no time to wait until a UK exit agreement is reached.

[Hazir]

So what's the next country. Maybe a Nexit? Or maybe a AUstritt.

NL

Do you want a referendum on the EU membership of the Netherlands 54% no 35% yes
If there is a referendum on the EU membership of the Netherlands what would you vote in or out in 55% out 30%

[Hazir]

In February 2017 the Swiss government has to take unilateral measurements if no agreement is reached. So actually there is no time to wait until a UK exit agreement is reached.

I don't think anybody will get access without full adherence to the four freedoms.

[Khendraja'aro]

Ireland will become interesting.

[earthJoker]

So I've been talking with a few fellow Swiss at the pub tonight and most agree that we should try to get a bilateral agreement with the UK as soon as possible.

[Loki]

Can't get anything for at least 2.5 years.

[Hazir]

The EU has set up a task force to prepare the Brexit.

[earthJoker]

Can't get anything for at least 2.5 years.

If we start talking now, that's as long as it takes anyway.

[Loki]

There's no one to talk to. Britain's getting a new Prime Minister in October (assuming there isn't another general election after that). And he's going to have lots of issues to deal with.

[RandBlade]

There's no one to talk to. Britain's getting a new Prime Minister in October (assuming there isn't another general election after that). And he's going to have lots of issues to deal with.

There are civil servants to talk with. The PM doesn't single handedly conduct negotiations anyway.

[Loki]

The parameters for negotiations are set by the political leadership.

[Hazir]

I was watching the BBC news yesterday; journalist in front of 10 Downing street and then it suddenly struck me. Seeing that picture is going to be something that will become increasingly rare; the UK simply lost its relevance to me. Once the divorce is done it will be just another country.

[earthJoker]

There's no one to talk to. Britain's getting a new Prime Minister in October (assuming there isn't another general election after that). And he's going to have lots of issues to deal with.

So then, 'as soon as possible' is October. Our parliament doesn't have a session before September either. It's almost July that both isn't a long time.

[Hazir]

So then, 'as soon as possible' is October. Our parliament doesn't have a session before September either. It's almost July that both isn't a long time.

And then? You gonna talk and make some sort of EFTA with the Brits? You realise the EU isn't the first agreement the Brits walked away from right?

[RandBlade]

I was watching the BBC news yesterday; journalist in front of 10 Downing street and then it suddenly struck me. Seeing that picture is going to be something that will become increasingly rare; the UK simply lost its relevance to me. Once the divorce is done it will be just another country.

Just the second largest nation in your continent. Soon to be the largest bigger than any in your backwards bloc.

Long term the EU has just lost its biggest and wealthiest member. But don't worry there are some third world nations you can replace us with.

[RandBlade]

The parameters for negotiations are set by the political leadership.

If you think that David Cameron, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson etc aren't already talking to the civil servants ... or that the permanent civil servants aren't actively working ... planning for the future you've never seen a single episode of Yes, Minister and have no clue how our nation runs in reality. Sir Humphrey doesn't wait for election results to plan for contingencies or the inevitable.

It's like in the Brexit campaign it was widely claimed there was no Plan B. That it was for Leavers to set out what will happen after a Leave vote the government and civil service weren't going to plan for that.

Then minutes after Cameron speaks out comes the Governor of the Bank of England with a calming message about what the BoE is doing and the months of behind the scenes planning and preparation that the Bank has been doing with the Treasury for this eventuality. Plan B was ready for as soon as it was needed.

[earthJoker]

And then? You gonna talk and make some sort of EFTA with the Brits? You realise the EU isn't the first agreement the Brits walked away from right?

At least we should try it. Yes.

[Hazir]

At least we should try it. Yes.

Ok, I can't really see what you think to achieve but that. But if you think it will work, go for it.

[Flixy]

If you think that David Cameron, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson etc aren't already talking to the civil servants ... or that the permanent civil servants aren't actively working ... planning for the future you've never seen a single episode of Yes, Minister and have no clue how our nation runs in reality. Sir Humphrey doesn't wait for election results to plan for contingencies or the inevitable.

It's like in the Brexit campaign it was widely claimed there was no Plan B. That it was for Leavers to set out what will happen after a Leave vote the government and civil service weren't going to plan for that.

Then minutes after Cameron speaks out comes the Governor of the Bank of England with a calming message about what the BoE is doing and the months of behind the scenes planning and preparation that the Bank has been doing with the Treasury for this eventuality. Plan B was ready for as soon as it was needed.

It would have been incredibly negligent not to have a plan b for such a big change yes.