It's a good job conservatives have so much self-control, or he might have killed the guy.
It's a good job conservatives have so much self-control, or he might have killed the guy.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
I fully expect the Montana conservatives to cheer and happily vote for this guy. Not sure about those identifying as independent. The conservative smear campaign against journalism has been depressingly successful, so, assaulting a journalist for doing his job might be regarded as heroic for anyone not liberal/ progressive minded.
The Rules
Copper- behave toward others to elicit treatment you would like (the manipulative rule)
Gold- treat others how you would like them to treat you (the self regard rule)
Platinum - treat others the way they would like to be treated (the PC rule)
"When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)
Fivethirtyeight had a little bit about the polling; it shows a GOP lead but the polls are of poor quality so it's hard to say how big it really is. Given the general tilt of Montana, even a close race should be a concern for the GOP looking forward to midterms (as were the two previous special elections that also showed overperformance by Dem challengers). I think this particular incident is likely to have a muted effect, though, since as many as two thirds of votes were already cast before the incident.
"When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)
Plus of the remaining third a certain percentage wouldn't have been voting for him anyway, which won't change because of this. So at most maybe 1/5th of voters (assuming he was winning by a healthy margin) would be yet to vote for him and of those I suspect most still will either because they don't pay enough attention to notice this story, or don't care about it.
There's actually an interesting question here having to do with the composition of the early voting population. Are early voters more likely to be partisan (e.g. unlikely to be swing voters)? If so, that implies that you can have more of an effect with a late surprise than you'd expect, because you weren't going to swing early voters one way or the other. It's a hypothesis, but I don't know if anyone has tested it yet.
"When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)
I think I read the same 538 article you did wigster, and didn't they make the point that the early voting population is more likely to be made up of people who already made up their mind?
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Early voting predicted nothing in the Georgia special election.
Hope is the denial of reality
"When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)
By definition, people who vote early are more excited about the election. At the very least, it means the same people would turn out to vote during the normal voting period if the early one wasn't available. Lots of early votes for party X simply means fewer votes being cast for that party on election day.
Hope is the denial of reality
I'm not convinced that's 'by definition'. Maybe people vote early because it's less of a hassle than voting on election day and they wouldn't vote otherwise. Maybe they vote early because they're less politically engaged and don't want to bother following the last few weeks of the campaign. Maybe they're a specific demographic that finds it difficult to make it to a polling place on election day. Etc. The easier you make it to vote early, the less certain we are that the population of early voters is particularly partisan or politically engaged. For that matter, that assumes that swing voters are less politically engaged than partisan voters, which may or may not be the case.
I would guess someone has looked at this with real data, and if I had to put money down it would be to agree that the proportion of partisan voters in early voting is indeed higher than on election day. But I wouldn't put a lot of money on it.
"When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)
Looks like Wicks won
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Barging into a place uninvited in Montana? He may have gotten off lucky?
Brevior saltare cum deformibus viris est vita
I blame gangsta rap for the thuggish behavior of Montana Republicans.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Pervasive culture of violence among Montana liberals:
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/...ould-have-shot
#thuglyfe
Seriously though, what the hell is up with these thin-skinned snowflakes?
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
You know, this thread is nearly a year old now.
I think we can all agree we've seen nearly unprecedented levels of self-control form conservatives across America during that time.
Running people over. Shooting at people. Electing the worst man in the world as president because liberals were mean to them. Lying, constantly. Insulting the families of dead soldiers. Repeatedly trying to take healthcare away from millions for no reason other than spite. Being completely unhinged about safe-spaces and "SJWs" and free speech being under attack, then turning round and completely losing their shit because a black dude knelt for the anthem. Inventing a bizarre conspiracy theory about fast food joints, then believing it. Maybe starting a war with North Korea.
These people are practically zen buddhists.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
circling back on this
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Trump to BLM : “when the looting starts, the shooting starts”
Trump to rioters he instigated: ”remain peaceful”
I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
Which is what I am
I aim at the stars
But sometimes I hit London
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."