Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 106

Thread: Post-election predictions

  1. #1

    Default Post-election predictions

    With the world turning into a slightly shittier place overnight, I thought we might enjoy seeking solace in trying to predict something.

    List your post-election predictions here.

    I predict a brief uptick in suicides, verbal and physical assaults and even murders in the US and, in a years' time, increase in violence between Israelis and Palestinians.

    Will the nuclear deal with Iran survive?

    Will TPP survive?
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Amsterdam/Istanbul
    Posts
    12,312
    I guess TTIP is dead.
    Congratulations America

  3. #3
    I predict Mexico will scramble to raise the value of their currency prior to paying for the wall.
    Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
    If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    slightly shittier place overnight
    Thats what happens when one of the few policy specifics we are aware of is to downright destroy the EPA.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    I guess TTIP is dead.
    Wasn't it already torpedoed by European states?
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  6. #6
    TTIP was already dead. Worse is that TPP is probably dead now. What a waste.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #7
    Yeah, this election is a victory for China and Russia on many different levels. Thank you, American voters.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  8. #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Amsterdam/Istanbul
    Posts
    12,312
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    TTIP was already dead. Worse is that TPP is probably dead now. What a waste.
    And the Brexit fanclub thinks the UK will get an agreement that's worth anything
    Congratulations America

  9. #9
    With Trump? He's said we'd be front of the queue but I wouldn't count my chickens until they're marinated in peri peri sauce and roasted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    With Trump? He's said we'd be front of the queue but I wouldn't count my chickens until they're marinated in peri peri sauce and roasted.
    Well you certainly won't be joining any TPP at least like you once suggested
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  11. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Amsterdam/Istanbul
    Posts
    12,312
    After closing a deal with Trump I would make it a policy to have a daily recount of my fingers.

    But who knows, they may have a lucky escape. For example that he's losing interest once he realizes the constricted life of a President isn't all he thought it would be.

    One other prediction I can give you is that I will never again take opinion polls serious again. My gut feeling about this election turned out to be a a great deal better at predicting the result than the people who make money with the numbers.
    Last edited by Hazir; 11-09-2016 at 11:02 PM.
    Congratulations America

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    With Trump? He's said we'd be front of the queue but I wouldn't count my chickens until they're marinated in peri peri sauce and roasted.
    Trump supporters love Brexit its probably rubbed off a little. Trump will want some foreign policy wins early on.

  13. #13
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Amsterdam/Istanbul
    Posts
    12,312
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Trump supporters love Brexit its probably rubbed off a little. Trump will want some foreign policy wins early on.
    Except that it can't be an early win for the simple reason that there's nothing to talk about until at least 2019.
    Congratulations America

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Well you certainly won't be joining any TPP at least like you once suggested
    Yes I agree it's very disappointing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #15
    My overall taxes are going down 15,000 USD a year, so my prediction is i'm going to buy a 23' tow behind trailer. Dual axel with a slide out.
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    It's not okay to shoot an innocent bank clerk but shooting a felon to death is commendable and do you should receive a reward rather than a punishment

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    One other prediction I can give you is that I will never again take opinion polls serious again. My gut feeling about this election turned out to be a a great deal better at predicting the result than the people who make money with the numbers.
    Same here. I hope this will change how the news media covers politics. And maybe both political parties will do "autopsies", and actually make improvements. For the GOP, that could mean another third (Conservative) party rises from its ashes? The DNC will have to make changes in their 'minority strategy' too, since ~800,000 US Latinos turn 18 yrs old every day, and some of them will be conservatives.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    The DNC will have to make changes in their 'minority strategy' too, since ~800,000 US Latinos turn 18 yrs old every day, and some of them will be conservatives.
    Even a quick back of the envelope calculation of your numbers shows how ridiculous this claim is. A more realistic figure might be 800,000 US Latinos turn 18 every year.

  18. #18
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Amsterdam/Istanbul
    Posts
    12,312
    I think it's kinda ridiculous to still call the GOP a conservative party. They are clearly anything but conservative.
    Congratulations America

  19. #19
    Agreed, red is finally a justified colour for them nowadays.

    Trump won half the unionized labor vote.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  20. #20
    I'm disheartened by some of the things I heard on the radio today. Lots of Democrats were discussing why they lost and where they should go now, and a distressing proportion were arguing for a more 'progressive' (i.e. leftist) platform in order to energize young and left-wing voters. I think this is precisely the wrong lesson, similar to what has happened with the Labour party in the UK. Instead, they should indeed change their message, but still keep it center-left and moderate. The focus should shift, however, to realistic solutions to address the concerns of those voters who feel left behind without resorting to populism or socialism.

    I am less than optimistic that this will actually happen.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  21. #21
    If they're counting on the millennial vote to save them they better have a damn' good plan for electoral reform that replaces voting with clicking "like" or retweeting.


    Unsurprisingly we see, once again, a surge in various forms of hate-crimes and hate-speech in the aftermath of a vote to stick it to the brown guys.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  22. #22
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Amsterdam/Istanbul
    Posts
    12,312
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    I'm disheartened by some of the things I heard on the radio today. Lots of Democrats were discussing why they lost and where they should go now, and a distressing proportion were arguing for a more 'progressive' (i.e. leftist) platform in order to energize young and left-wing voters. I think this is precisely the wrong lesson, similar to what has happened with the Labour party in the UK. Instead, they should indeed change their message, but still keep it center-left and moderate. The focus should shift, however, to realistic solutions to address the concerns of those voters who feel left behind without resorting to populism or socialism.

    I am less than optimistic that this will actually happen.
    You are really thinking more centralism is going to win vote in a country that has just voted in a Jacobin President ?

    Nothing should abhor you more than the question: 'Whose American Dream?'

    I think indeed that we - not just in the USA - have to think about how we are going to deal with the erosion of social mobility we have allowed to happen. I could very well imagine changing financing of education in such a way that the financial situation of your parents becomes negligible.
    Congratulations America

  23. #23
    Electorally, a populist shift might help the Dems, at least for a little while, Wiggin. But they're fooling themselves if they think a more social-progressive direction is in-line with populism in this country. It's not, and hasn't been for decades. Populism in the US has long been profoundly anti-government. They were enraged at the idea of universal healthcare, for crissake.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Electorally, a populist shift might help the Dems, at least for a little while, Wiggin. But they're fooling themselves if they think a more social-progressive direction is in-line with populism in this country. It's not, and hasn't been for decades. Populism in the US has long been profoundly anti-government. They were enraged at the idea of universal healthcare, for crissake.
    I meant populism in the Sanders mold, not the Trumpist mold. They are angry about similar things, but the Sanders solutions are not just unworkable (like Trump's) but are also unpopular.

    I have no idea how I would have voted in a Sanders-Trump election (possibly Sanders just because I would want a split government), but I can guarantee that if Sanders was going up against an even vaguely reasonable opponent he wouldn't get my vote. Democrats should be concerned about losing the center IMO.

    It's easy to argue that Trump won because of angry, uneducated white men. And there's no doubt that this demographic helped him. But Democrats should be concerned that their message/candidate didn't resonate with a lot of other people - a surprising number of women, a surprising number of college educated whites, and a surprising number of Latinos. Trump should have been anathema to these groups but clearly wasn't. Democrats need to figure out why and come up with an appropriate response. Socialism isn't going to do it.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Enoch the Red View Post
    Even a quick back of the envelope calculation of your numbers shows how ridiculous this claim is. A more realistic figure might be 800,000 US Latinos turn 18 every year.
    Yep, it's every year, thanks for catching my typo.

    "17.6 million are under the age of 18 and thus too young to vote—for now. That vast majority (93%) of Latino youths are U.S-born citizens and thus will automatically become eligible to vote once they turn 18. Today, some 800,000 Latinos turn 18 each year; by 2030, this number could grow to 1 million per year, adding a potential electorate of more than 16 million new Latino voters to the rolls by 2030."

    http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/1...ouble-by-2030/



    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    I meant populism in the Sanders mold, not the Trumpist mold. They are angry about similar things, but the Sanders solutions are not just unworkable (like Trump's) but are also unpopular.

    I have no idea how I would have voted in a Sanders-Trump election (possibly Sanders just because I would want a split government), but I can guarantee that if Sanders was going up against an even vaguely reasonable opponent he wouldn't get my vote. Democrats should be concerned about losing the center IMO.

    It's easy to argue that Trump won because of angry, uneducated white men. And there's no doubt that this demographic helped him. But Democrats should be concerned that their message/candidate didn't resonate with a lot of other people - a surprising number of women, a surprising number of college educated whites, and a surprising number of Latinos. Trump should have been anathema to these groups but clearly wasn't. Democrats need to figure out why and come up with an appropriate response. Socialism isn't going to do it.
    Seems to me that's using outdated terms and definitions to describe today's electorate, which has rather blown away what it means to be a Republican or Democrat, let alone a centrist or moderate. Our political climate reflects how the US has become increasingly polarized, with the right moving farther right and the left moving farther left -- and the "center" now being that dot on the plot that means "compromise", which is now a dirty word in politics.

    IMO Democrats failed to see this was a *change* election, that 'outsiders' or fresh faces were favored over 'establishment' or dynasty/legacy candidates, and Clinton was just the wrong candidate! She might have been the centrist or moderate that could appeal across party lines, but she had too much baggage as a career politician, and expecting it was 'her turn' was flawed strategy.

  26. #26
    There are also 5 million whites reaching the age of 18 every year...
    Hope is the denial of reality

  27. #27
    What's that got to do with what I said about a growing minority group becoming an important voting bloc?

  28. #28
    If you say there are 1 million new Hispanic voters and 5 million new White voters each year (assuming populace votes on equal ratios racially) then that makes Hispanics 16% of that total, while Whites are 84% of the total. Obviously this excludes other minorities like blacks and Asians etc

    Appealing on racial grounds to the 16% lets you get outflanked by an alternative appealing to the 84%

    Though the data post-election demonstrates that Trump actually won more Hispanic votes as a proportion of votes cast than Romney did. Hillary won less Hispanics as a proportion of votes cast than Obama. So much for the notion that Trump was toxic to all Hispanics.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #29
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  30. #30
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •