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Thread: Brexit Begins

  1. #361
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Yes and we will of course reach such agreements just as all other nations do.
    Listen, dude, what we are repeatedly trying to tell you: Those deals TAKE TIME. And absolutely NO ONE will even try to begin to talk about a deal until they know what your status quo after Brexit is exactly.

    Which means in a case of "No deal!" you'll be standing with exactly that, namely "no deals", for quite some time until you can cobble something together. Which would also mean that practically anyone would be tempted to bend you over the table because in that case you'll be desperate for such deals. You will not be in a position of power in such negotiations.

    I'm also pretty sure that Lithuania didn't have much in the way of airspace travel agreements directly after seceding.
    When the stars threw down their spears
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  2. #362
    Some deals take time. Some are about accepting pre-existing global standards and are a case of copying the exist document over and highlighting instances of European Union and pasting United Kingdom.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  3. #363
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    That's not what he's saying. He's saying that when you leave you will have to negotiate new agreements because you will no longer be a party to very many of the agreements that currently give you access to things like flight routes, airports, visa-free travel etc. Unless such agreements are in place when you exit the EU you may have reduced or no access until new agreements are made.
    Visa-free travel I get, but I'm having a hard time believing that the EU treaties literally revoked and replaced all of Britain's prior agreements on topics like the routes of multinational airline companies. And correct me if I'm wrong but your "free sky" initiative already spreads beyond the EU itself, doesn't it?
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  4. #364
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Some deals take time. Some are about accepting pre-existing global standards and are a case of copying the exist document over and highlighting instances of European Union and pasting United Kingdom.
    You're very naive if you think that it's a mere matter of: "Yes, you may fly over our country." That's relatively easy.

    But being allowed to land and take off somewhere else, that's a completely different story.

    Oh, and pray tell: What exactly is this magical mystery "global standard" and who enforces it?
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  5. #365
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Visa-free travel I get, but I'm having a hard time believing that the EU treaties literally revoked and replaced all of Britain's prior agreements on topics like the routes of multinational airline companies. And correct me if I'm wrong but your "free sky" initiative already spreads beyond the EU itself, doesn't it?
    Afaict, new agreements about air travel have replaced/superseded old ones to a great extent. If nothing else, many of those countries with which the UK had bilateral agreements are now in the EU and their ability to have agreements pertaining to air travel, with countries outside the EU, is subject to EU regulation. It's possible that the UK would have to seek readmission to ECAA after Brexit (another one of those bespoke deals RB longs for ) but carriers are, understandably enough, exploring options that won't see their business placed in limbo while those negotiations are conducted. The status of agreements with countries outside ECAA remains uncertain and given how much the aviation industry has changed over the past few decades I expect it will be difficult to sort out those questions.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  6. #366
    This old discussion gives a reasonably informative overview of the problems:

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85068
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  7. #367
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Visa-free travel I get, but I'm having a hard time believing that the EU treaties literally revoked and replaced all of Britain's prior agreements on topics like the routes of multinational airline companies. And correct me if I'm wrong but your "free sky" initiative already spreads beyond the EU itself, doesn't it?
    Well that is still what happened for every single international agreement the UK had that fell in the remit of the EU. The Open Skies agreement is an agreement between the EU and the US. Which means that once the UK is no longer a member of the EU it also no longer has an agreement with the US. And bleary eyed Brexiteers may believe a new deal could be done in no time, but the reality is that that agreement was made at a time that lowering trade barriers was all the rage. I think your present administration is more about 'America First'.
    Congratulations America

  8. #368
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Afaict, new agreements about air travel have replaced/superseded old ones to a great extent. If nothing else, many of those countries with which the UK had bilateral agreements are now in the EU and their ability to have agreements pertaining to air travel, with countries outside the EU, is subject to EU regulation. It's possible that the UK would have to seek readmission to ECAA after Brexit (another one of those bespoke deals RB longs for ) but carriers are, understandably enough, exploring options that won't see their business placed in limbo while those negotiations are conducted. The status of agreements with countries outside ECAA remains uncertain and given how much the aviation industry has changed over the past few decades I expect it will be difficult to sort out those questions.
    The ECAA falls under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.
    Congratulations America

  9. #369
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    The ECAA falls under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.
    I'm not sure which part that is in response to.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  10. #370
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    I'm not sure which part that is in response to.
    Not really a response, but the ECJ especially seems to be something the Brexiteers will not suffer. Funnily enough because they don't know the difference between the ECJ and the ECHR.
    Congratulations America

  11. #371
    I get the impression they would be able to accept that in specific situations for pragmatic reasons.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  12. #372
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    it's only possible if they consent to a transitional deal during which nothing changes but their formal membership of the EU.
    Congratulations America

  13. #373
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    This old discussion gives a reasonably informative overview of the problems:

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85068
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Well that is still what happened for every single international agreement the UK had that fell in the remit of the EU. The Open Skies agreement is an agreement between the EU and the US. Which means that once the UK is no longer a member of the EU it also no longer has an agreement with the US. And bleary eyed Brexiteers may believe a new deal could be done in no time, but the reality is that that agreement was made at a time that lowering trade barriers was all the rage. I think your present administration is more about 'America First'.
    What happened before is not that all prior treaties were instantaneously revoked but they had to be amended. But now that's not the case? I'm not following why.
    Minx, what's confusing me is exemplified by the following passage from your linked page.
    The effect of this is startling. In legal terms, where substantial ownership and effective control of an airline is not vested in a Member State or States, nationals of such a State or States, or both, or the airline is not licensed as a Community airline or does not have its principal place of business in the territory of the European Community, any third country "may revoke, suspend or limit the operating authorisations or technical permissions or otherwise suspend or limit the operations" of the airline.

    In as much as UK airlines will no longer be "Community airlines" (or even "Community air carriers"), they may be excluded from any or all EU-third country agreements. In fact, there probably is no "may" about it. UK overflight and landing rights in most third countries are automatically revoked.
    The legal text says "may." The writer said, in reference to what would follow, that something "may" happen but then amended it to "absolutely will happen for a certainty everywhere." And I'm not following. Why would it happen like that? No one gains from that and the available text certainly doesn't appear to require it. So why is it happening?
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  14. #374
    I presumed that was because the UK would no longer be counted as a "party" to those agreements.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  15. #375
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    What happened before is not that all prior treaties were instantaneously revoked but they had to be amended. But now that's not the case? I'm not following why.
    Actually the effect of the disappearance of the UK as contracting partner for the remit of the EU was the end of a process of the UK disentangling itself from it'S empire. The old treaties were not amended, they were cancelled by the UK and for as far desired renegotiated by the EU.
    For the Brexit UK that pretty much means tabula rasa for everything that was within the remit of the EU. The Brexiteers think they are starting from a status quo from which they delete the parts they do not like. Which is about the exact description of what the EU consistenly have named as the model that will not lead to any deal at all.


    Minx, what's confusing me is exemplified by the following passage from your linked page.


    The legal text says "may." The writer said, in reference to what would follow, that something "may" happen but then amended it to "absolutely will happen for a certainty everywhere." And I'm not following. Why would it happen like that? No one gains from that and the available text certainly doesn't appear to require it. So why is it happening?
    'It' would happen because those third countries would conclude that a country that is not part of the EU is trying to fly under the deal they have with the EU. It is not very far from a situation where a Cuban airline would demand rights on the basis that the US has an agreement. In theory it might happen, but the reality is that countries first want an agreement, then implementation.
    Congratulations America

  16. #376
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Actually the effect of the disappearance of the UK as contracting partner for the remit of the EU was the end of a process of the UK disentangling itself from it'S empire. The old treaties were not amended, they were cancelled by the UK
    That's not what my sources (or the one Aimless linked) appear to be saying. May I ask what your source for the declaration that such is what happened is?

    'It' would happen because those third countries would conclude that a country that is not part of the EU is trying to fly under the deal they have with the EU. It is not very far from a situation where a Cuban airline would demand rights on the basis that the US has an agreement. In theory it might happen, but the reality is that countries first want an agreement, then implementation.
    Is the UK not a distinct party to those agreements? Again, so far as my research can tell the 27 countries of the EU all get singly named, in addition to the European Community. The EU remains a hybrid entity. There is a perfectly good legal case to be made that the UK does count as a successor state for those agreements, enough of a case that most parties (at least those not in the EU itself) are going to follow it in the interim until bilateral agreements are worked out. Because, again, it doesn't really benefit anyone but belligerent EU-states to opt for cutting off all UK traffic.
    Last edited by LittleFuzzy; 06-01-2017 at 03:12 AM.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  17. #377
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You do realise that Russia is legally the successor state to the USSR right? Or that when Lithuania declared independence the USSR continued without Lithuania?

    Of all the arguments to stay in a union the idea that Lithuania had to remain in the USSR or that the UK has to remain in the EU as the alternative is too difficult is just absurd.

    How many billions in Danegeld did Lithuania pay the USSR in order to be able to have international flights?
    I don't think you realize how much it cost Lithuania to reestablish economic links after the breakup of the USSR...
    Hope is the denial of reality

  18. #378
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    That's not what my sources (or the one Aimless linked) appear to be saying. May I ask what your source for the declaration that such is what happened is?



    Is the UK not a distinct party to those agreements? Again, so far as my research can tell the 27 countries of the EU all get singly named, in addition to the European Community. The EU remains a hybrid entity. There is a perfectly good legal case to be made that the UK does count as a successor state for those agreements, enough of a case that most parties (at least those not in the EU itself) are going to follow it in the interim until bilateral agreements are worked out. Because, again, it doesn't really benefit anyone but belligerent EU-states to opt for cutting off all UK traffic.
    A single source would be difficult, but the Financial Times article gives a pretty good idea of it. The accession process is what it is: preparing the candidate state to fall under the body of law of the EU and to negotiate with third parties for about the situation that arises out of that. At the end of it the member state may be mentioned in treaties but no longer is a sovereign contracting party. Britain can still be part of the EU, but there no longer is a discernable partition that pertains to the UK.

    The end result is that with the UK leaving the third country has to decide how to interpret the treaty in the light of the new situation. It is unlikely that any opposite party would choose the UK as the successor to the old EU. And that means for the UK that it actually has no deal with the third country which then also finds itself in the position of having to choose on how to tackle the future. And you can bet your ass that if they regulated before through a treaty they also want to regulate through a treaty with Brexit UK.

    The EU will probably have to renegotiate some deals because countries will not be willing to treat the EU 27 as if nothing changed, but in the case of the EU I can't imagine any third country saying the old treaty goes out of the window. The biggest mess theoretically would be if UK nor EU could continue under the existing treaties. But I don't think anybody would like to cause that kind of economic damage.
    Congratulations America

  19. #379
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    So, I hope they're considering employing enough diplomats and skilled negotiators...

    https://webcache.googleusercontent.c...4-9023f8c0fd2e

    While Brexit is often cast as an affair between Brussels and London, in practice Britain’s exit will open more than 750 separate time-pressured mini-negotiations worldwide, according to Financial Times research. And there are no obvious shortcuts: even a basic transition after 2019 requires not just EU-UK approval, but the deal-by-deal authorisation of every third country involved.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  20. #380
    Oh this is all just too damned difficult, lets give up this sovereignty concept as its too difficult.

    Said by nobody serious ever.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #381
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    Yes, Rand, because the article was about sovereignty or difficulty.

    Listen, it may be difficult for you to understand but let me put this in words you may comprehend: Pouring a beer is not the most difficult of tasks. But pouring 750 beers takes a bit of time when you're the only barkeeper.

    And trade deals and other negotiations are just a tad more difficult than pouring a beer. The article specifically addressed the point that even a rubberstamped deal where you cross out EU and exchange it for "UK" takes time. Nevermind that those occasions will be rare.

    Then again, you have yet to give me the impression that you can pour piss out of a boot.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  22. #382
    Who said the article was about sovereignty? Not me. Brexit is about sovereignty. As for whether it was about difficulty, well the rest of your post was about difficulty so it seems like you think it was.

    I've said all along that Brexit will be difficult but is long-term the right thing to do. The fact that there's a lot to do in the next couple of years doesn't change that one iota.

    If something is difficult on the one hand and the right thing to do on the other, then suck it up and face down the difficulties.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #383
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    Erm, what "rest of my post". It was exclusively about the manpower needed and the shortness of time.

    And, Rand, you obviously don't realize it: But a "No deals" (please note the plural here) scenario will be catastrophic for your economy. This is not about a deal with the EU. This is about deals with the rest of the world.

    You're acting like someone who's driving a car towards a wall and saying: "Well, as soon as we crashed our car through this wall, everything will be fine!"
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  24. #384
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    Brexit is gonna be so much fun with Theresa May trying to do that anti-EU charade one more time. It worked when it was backed up with a veto, but with that having been checked at the entrance she pretty much comes without any leverage.
    Congratulations America

  25. #385
    The UK government is a lot weaker today. Last night is bad news for the Brexit negotiations that start in just a few days. A major self inflicted gunshot wound to May's own feet.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #386
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    You're correct in that there's a self-inflicted gunshot wound. You're wrong in who exactly shot themselves into their foot - that happened last year already.

    May's lunacy is only a mere footnote in that regard.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  27. #387
    Broken record strikes again. There's no reason why an independent UK can't be a bigger success than an EU in your sclerotic and dying union.

    And as a silver lining if the election turns the UK away from May's damaging and backwards parochialism that I have opposed here then even better. Interesting that our leader who has done extremely well last night, SCON leader Ruth Davidson (whom I have a lot of respect for) is using her new bloc of SCON MPs to push for a more open Brexit. Good!
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #388
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    Dying? Seriously? This only exemplifies how far removed from reality you idiot actually are.

    I give it even chances that the EU will outlast your union.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  29. #389
    Only evens, you're not very confident then.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #390
    Ruth Davidson has been very good indeed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

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